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of runway. They hope further investment will save them. But because
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they have high expenses and slow growth, they're now unappealing
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to investors. They're unable to raise more, and the company dies.What the company should have done is address the fundamental problem:
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that the product is only moderately appealing. Hiring people is
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rarely the way to fix that. More often than not it makes it harder.
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At this early stage, the product needs to evolve more than to be
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"built out," and that's usually easier with fewer people.
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[4]Asking whether you're default alive or default dead may save you
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from this. Maybe the alarm bells it sets off will counteract the
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forces that push you to overhire. Instead you'll be compelled to
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seek growth in other ways. For example, by doing
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things that don't scale, or by redesigning the product in the
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way only founders can.
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And for many if not most startups, these paths to growth will be
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the ones that actually work.Airbnb waited 4 months after raising money at the end of Y Combinator
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before they hired their first employee. In the meantime the founders
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were terribly overworked. But they were overworked evolving Airbnb
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into the astonishingly successful organism it is now.Notes[1]
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Steep usage growth will also interest investors. Revenue
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will ultimately be a constant multiple of usage, so x% usage growth
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predicts x% revenue growth. But in practice investors discount
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merely predicted revenue, so if you're measuring usage you need a
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higher growth rate to impress investors.[2]
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Startups that don't raise money are saved from hiring too
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fast because they can't afford to. But that doesn't mean you should
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avoid raising money in order to avoid this problem, any more than
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that total abstinence is the only way to avoid becoming an alcoholic.[3]
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I would not be surprised if VCs' tendency to push founders
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to overhire is not even in their own interest. They don't know how
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many of the companies that get killed by overspending might have
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done well if they'd survived. My guess is a significant number.[4]
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After reading a draft, Sam Altman wrote:"I think you should make the hiring point more strongly. I think
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it's roughly correct to say that YC's most successful companies
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have never been the fastest to hire, and one of the marks of a great
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founder is being able to resist this urge."Paul Buchheit adds:"A related problem that I see a lot is premature scaling—founders
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take a small business that isn't really working (bad unit economics,
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typically) and then scale it up because they want impressive growth
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numbers. This is similar to over-hiring in that it makes the business
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much harder to fix once it's big, plus they are bleeding cash really
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fast."
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Thanks to Sam Altman, Paul Buchheit, Joe Gebbia, Jessica Livingston,
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and Geoff Ralston for reading drafts of this.
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Want to start a startup? Get funded by
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Y Combinator.
|
November 2009I don't think Apple realizes how badly the App Store approval process
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is broken. Or rather, I don't think they realize how much it matters
|
that it's broken.The way Apple runs the App Store has harmed their reputation with
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programmers more than anything else they've ever done.
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Their reputation with programmers used to be great.
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It used to be the most common complaint you heard
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about Apple was that their fans admired them too uncritically.
|
The App Store has changed that. Now a lot of programmers
|
have started to see Apple as evil.How much of the goodwill Apple once had with programmers have they
|
lost over the App Store? A third? Half? And that's just so far.
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The App Store is an ongoing karma leak.* * *How did Apple get into this mess? Their fundamental problem is
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that they don't understand software.They treat iPhone apps the way they treat the music they sell through
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iTunes. Apple is the channel; they own the user; if you want to
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reach users, you do it on their terms. The record labels agreed,
|
reluctantly. But this model doesn't work for software. It doesn't
|
work for an intermediary to own the user. The software business
|
learned that in the early 1980s, when companies like VisiCorp showed
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that although the words "software" and "publisher" fit together,
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the underlying concepts don't. Software isn't like music or books.
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It's too complicated for a third party to act as an intermediary
|
between developer and user. And yet that's what Apple is trying
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to be with the App Store: a software publisher. And a particularly
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overreaching one at that, with fussy tastes and a rigidly enforced
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house style.If software publishing didn't work in 1980, it works even less now
|
that software development has evolved from a small number of big
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releases to a constant stream of small ones. But Apple doesn't
|
understand that either. Their model of product development derives
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from hardware. They work on something till they think it's finished,
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then they release it. You have to do that with hardware, but because
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software is so easy to change, its design can benefit from evolution.
|
The standard way to develop applications now is to launch fast and
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iterate. Which means it's a disaster to have long, random delays
|
each time you release a new version.Apparently Apple's attitude is that developers should be more careful
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when they submit a new version to the App Store. They would say
|
that. But powerful as they are, they're not powerful enough to
|
turn back the evolution of technology. Programmers don't use
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launch-fast-and-iterate out of laziness. They use it because it
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yields the best results. By obstructing that process, Apple is
|
making them do bad work, and programmers hate that as much as Apple
|
would.How would Apple like it if when they discovered a serious bug in
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OS X, instead of releasing a software update immediately, they had
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to submit their code to an intermediary who sat on it for a month
|
and then rejected it because it contained an icon they didn't like?By breaking software development, Apple gets the opposite of what
|
they intended: the version of an app currently available in the App
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Store tends to be an old and buggy one. One developer told me:
|
As a result of their process, the App Store is full of half-baked
|
applications. I make a new version almost every day that I release
|
to beta users. The version on the App Store feels old and crappy.
|
I'm sure that a lot of developers feel this way: One emotion is
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