[
  {
    "component_id": "cosmos1-wfm",
    "organization": "NVIDIA",
    "family": "Cosmos 1 / Predict1 — allocation scenario",
    "low_musd": 8.1,
    "central_musd": 27.0,
    "high_musd": 64.8,
    "documented_input_central_musd": 0,
    "scenario_remainder_central_musd": 27.0,
    "sources": [
      "https://arxiv.org/html/2501.03575"
    ],
    "method": "Reported cluster 10,000 H100 over three months; 90-day approximation. ASSUME 25/50/75% of cluster-capacity hours attributable to retained model training (not utilisation measurement), at $1.5/2.5/4 per GPU-hour. Excludes separately adding constituent models. Allocation is not empirically calibrated.",
    "overlap_review": "Entire released WFM group counted once; no separate Transfer1, tokenizer or inherited NeMo/T5 base added.",
    "lineage_uncertain": false,
    "flops_1e24": null,
    "evidence_grade": "C",
    "unresolved": "No actual dollar invoice; price and FLOP conversion assumptions. "
  },
  {
    "component_id": "cosmos3-generator",
    "organization": "NVIDIA",
    "family": "Cosmos 3 Nano + Super — generator increment",
    "low_musd": 4.319616,
    "central_musd": 9.719136,
    "high_musd": 43.19616,
    "documented_input_central_musd": 0,
    "scenario_remainder_central_musd": 9.719136,
    "sources": [
      "https://arxiv.org/html/2606.02800v4"
    ],
    "method": "Architecture scenario: 6ND with one 8B/32B tower per token × (31.05+2.4)T/(17.86+1.9)T tokens. Token counts reported; effective training compute proxy uncertain. No use of ambiguous benchmark throughput. High doubles compute proxy for architecture/attention overhead. This is a sensitivity assumption, not a measured bound.",
    "overlap_review": "Qwen3-VL upstream excluded; Edge/Alpamayo/posttraining excluded. Separate generator training only.",
    "lineage_uncertain": false,
    "flops_1e24": [
      5.39952,
      5.39952,
      5.39952
    ],
    "evidence_grade": "C",
    "unresolved": "No actual dollar invoice; price and FLOP conversion assumptions. "
  },
  {
    "component_id": "command-a",
    "organization": "Cohere",
    "family": "Command A — 111B base",
    "low_musd": 0,
    "central_musd": 21.5784,
    "high_musd": 79.92,
    "documented_input_central_musd": 0,
    "scenario_remainder_central_musd": 21.5784,
    "sources": [
      "https://huggingface.co/CohereLabs/c4ai-command-a-03-2025"
    ],
    "method": "6ND proxy; 111B active × [10, 18, 30]T tokens; token volumes ASSUMED; $0.8/1.8/4M per 1e24 FLOP.",
    "overlap_review": "Remove legacy Command R/R+ successor allowance first; Vision/Reasoning/Aya not added separately.",
    "lineage_uncertain": true,
    "flops_1e24": [
      6.66,
      11.988,
      19.98
    ],
    "evidence_grade": "C",
    "unresolved": "No actual dollar invoice; price and FLOP conversion assumptions. Independent-run scenario; reuse/upcycling not excluded."
  },
  {
    "component_id": "command-aplus",
    "organization": "Cohere",
    "family": "Command A+ — 25B active base",
    "low_musd": 0,
    "central_musd": 6.75,
    "high_musd": 24.0,
    "documented_input_central_musd": 0,
    "scenario_remainder_central_musd": 6.75,
    "sources": [
      "https://huggingface.co/CohereLabs/command-a-plus-05-2026-bf16"
    ],
    "method": "6ND proxy; 25B active × [15, 25, 40]T tokens; token volumes ASSUMED; $0.8/1.8/4M per 1e24 FLOP.",
    "overlap_review": "Separate-generation assumption; no Vision/Translate/North increments added.",
    "lineage_uncertain": true,
    "flops_1e24": [
      2.25,
      3.75,
      6.0
    ],
    "evidence_grade": "C",
    "unresolved": "No actual dollar invoice; price and FLOP conversion assumptions. Independent-run scenario; reuse/upcycling not excluded."
  },
  {
    "component_id": "grok2",
    "organization": "xAI",
    "family": "Grok 2 — 2024 base scenario",
    "low_musd": 0,
    "central_musd": 9.763200000000001,
    "high_musd": 40.68,
    "documented_input_central_musd": 0,
    "scenario_remainder_central_musd": 9.763200000000001,
    "sources": [
      "https://huggingface.co/xai-org/grok-2"
    ],
    "method": "6ND proxy; 113B active × [4, 8, 15]T tokens; token volumes ASSUMED; $0.8/1.8/4M per 1e24 FLOP.",
    "overlap_review": "Grok1 separately counted; active113B is config-derived approximation; independent-run assumption; no additional instruct run.",
    "lineage_uncertain": true,
    "flops_1e24": [
      2.712,
      5.424,
      10.17
    ],
    "evidence_grade": "C",
    "unresolved": "No actual dollar invoice; price and FLOP conversion assumptions. Independent-run scenario; reuse/upcycling not excluded."
  },
  {
    "component_id": "axk1",
    "organization": "SK Telecom",
    "family": "A.X K1",
    "low_musd": 1.584,
    "central_musd": 6.4152000000000005,
    "high_musd": 23.76,
    "documented_input_central_musd": 0,
    "scenario_remainder_central_musd": 6.4152000000000005,
    "sources": [
      "https://huggingface.co/skt/A.X-K1"
    ],
    "method": "6ND proxy; 33B active × [10, 18, 30]T tokens; token volumes ASSUMED; $0.8/1.8/4M per 1e24 FLOP.",
    "overlap_review": "Card explicitly says from scratch; A.X3.1 omitted.",
    "lineage_uncertain": false,
    "flops_1e24": [
      1.98,
      3.564,
      5.94
    ],
    "evidence_grade": "C",
    "unresolved": "No actual dollar invoice; price and FLOP conversion assumptions. "
  },
  {
    "component_id": "axk2",
    "organization": "SK Telecom",
    "family": "A.X K2 — pretraining",
    "low_musd": 1.29888,
    "central_musd": 2.9224799999999997,
    "high_musd": 6.4944,
    "documented_input_central_musd": 2.9224799999999997,
    "scenario_remainder_central_musd": 0,
    "sources": [
      "https://huggingface.co/skt/A.X-K2"
    ],
    "method": "6ND proxy; 33B active × [8.2, 8.2, 8.2]T tokens; tokens reported; $0.8/1.8/4M per 1e24 FLOP.",
    "overlap_review": "Card explicitly says from scratch; K1 not reused as a charged base. Posttraining not counted.",
    "lineage_uncertain": false,
    "flops_1e24": [
      1.6236,
      1.6236,
      1.6236
    ],
    "evidence_grade": "B",
    "unresolved": "No actual dollar invoice; price and FLOP conversion assumptions. "
  },
  {
    "component_id": "qwen2-dense",
    "organization": "Alibaba",
    "family": "Qwen 2 — dense 0.5/1.5/7/72B",
    "low_musd": 2.7336,
    "central_musd": 6.1506,
    "high_musd": 13.668,
    "documented_input_central_musd": 6.1506,
    "scenario_remainder_central_musd": 0,
    "sources": [
      "https://arxiv.org/html/2407.10671v1"
    ],
    "method": "Reported schedule: 0.5B×12T + (1.5+7+72)B×7T; 6ND; prices unchanged. 7T is a conservative reported slice, excludes long-context overhead.",
    "overlap_review": "Pre-Qwen2.5 generation; each dense size once; excludes Qwen1/1.5 unresolved overlap.",
    "lineage_uncertain": false,
    "flops_1e24": [
      3.417,
      3.417,
      3.417
    ],
    "evidence_grade": "B",
    "unresolved": "No actual dollar invoice; price and FLOP conversion assumptions. "
  },
  {
    "component_id": "qwen2-moe",
    "organization": "Alibaba",
    "family": "Qwen 2 57B-A14B — upcycling increment",
    "low_musd": 0.3024,
    "central_musd": 0.6804,
    "high_musd": 1.512,
    "documented_input_central_musd": 0.6804,
    "scenario_remainder_central_musd": 0,
    "sources": [
      "https://arxiv.org/html/2407.10671v1"
    ],
    "method": "6ND proxy; 14B active × [4.5, 4.5, 4.5]T tokens; tokens reported; $0.8/1.8/4M per 1e24 FLOP.",
    "overlap_review": "Only additional4.5T after Qwen2-7B; parent is already in preceding dense entry.",
    "lineage_uncertain": false,
    "flops_1e24": [
      0.378,
      0.378,
      0.378
    ],
    "evidence_grade": "B",
    "unresolved": "No actual dollar invoice; price and FLOP conversion assumptions. "
  },
  {
    "component_id": "glm4-32",
    "organization": "Z.ai",
    "family": "GLM 4 32B — April 2025 base",
    "low_musd": 2.304,
    "central_musd": 5.184,
    "high_musd": 11.52,
    "documented_input_central_musd": 5.184,
    "scenario_remainder_central_musd": 0,
    "sources": [
      "https://huggingface.co/zai-org/GLM-4-32B-Base-0414"
    ],
    "method": "6ND proxy; 32B active × [15, 15, 15]T tokens; tokens reported; $0.8/1.8/4M per 1e24 FLOP.",
    "overlap_review": "Distinct from GLM4.5 and5; Z1/Rumination/Flash/vision not added.",
    "lineage_uncertain": false,
    "flops_1e24": [
      2.88,
      2.88,
      2.88
    ],
    "evidence_grade": "B",
    "unresolved": "No actual dollar invoice; price and FLOP conversion assumptions. "
  },
  {
    "component_id": "seedoss",
    "organization": "ByteDance Seed",
    "family": "Seed-OSS 36B — base",
    "low_musd": 2.0736000000000003,
    "central_musd": 4.6656,
    "high_musd": 10.368,
    "documented_input_central_musd": 4.6656,
    "scenario_remainder_central_musd": 0,
    "sources": [
      "https://huggingface.co/ByteDance-Seed/Seed-OSS-36B-Base"
    ],
    "method": "6ND proxy; 36B active × [12, 12, 12]T tokens; tokens reported; $0.8/1.8/4M per 1e24 FLOP.",
    "overlap_review": "One base only; woSyn alternative, Seed-Coder and BAGEL excluded.",
    "lineage_uncertain": false,
    "flops_1e24": [
      2.592,
      2.592,
      2.592
    ],
    "evidence_grade": "B",
    "unresolved": "No actual dollar invoice; price and FLOP conversion assumptions. "
  },
  {
    "component_id": "chameleon",
    "organization": "Meta",
    "family": "Chameleon 7B + 34B — pretraining",
    "low_musd": 5.138888,
    "central_musd": 10.277776,
    "high_musd": 15.416664,
    "documented_input_central_musd": 10.277776,
    "scenario_remainder_central_musd": 0,
    "sources": [
      "https://arxiv.org/html/2405.09818v1"
    ],
    "method": "5138888 GPU-hours × [1, 2, 3] USD/GPU-hour (assumed prices).",
    "overlap_review": "Separate early-fusion runs; no Llama base charged.",
    "lineage_uncertain": false,
    "flops_1e24": null,
    "evidence_grade": "B",
    "unresolved": "No actual dollar invoice; price and FLOP conversion assumptions. "
  },
  {
    "component_id": "codellama",
    "organization": "Meta",
    "family": "Code Llama — released 12-model increment",
    "low_musd": 1.4,
    "central_musd": 2.8,
    "high_musd": 4.2,
    "documented_input_central_musd": 2.8,
    "scenario_remainder_central_musd": 0,
    "sources": [
      "https://huggingface.co/meta-llama/CodeLlama-70b-hf"
    ],
    "method": "1400000 GPU-hours × [1, 2, 3] USD/GPU-hour (assumed prices).",
    "overlap_review": "Llama2 upstream already in V3; all12 includes70B. Older400k report is subset, not extra.",
    "lineage_uncertain": false,
    "flops_1e24": null,
    "evidence_grade": "B",
    "unresolved": "No actual dollar invoice; price and FLOP conversion assumptions. "
  },
  {
    "component_id": "cwm",
    "organization": "Meta",
    "family": "CWM — pretraining + mid-training",
    "low_musd": 1.9968000000000001,
    "central_musd": 4.4928,
    "high_musd": 9.984,
    "documented_input_central_musd": 4.4928,
    "scenario_remainder_central_musd": 0,
    "sources": [
      "https://huggingface.co/facebook/cwm-pretrain"
    ],
    "method": "6ND proxy; 32B active × [13, 13, 13]T tokens; tokens reported; $0.8/1.8/4M per 1e24 FLOP.",
    "overlap_review": "8T+5T once across pretrain/SFT/final checkpoints; RL/SFT extra excluded.",
    "lineage_uncertain": false,
    "flops_1e24": [
      2.496,
      2.496,
      2.496
    ],
    "evidence_grade": "B",
    "unresolved": "No actual dollar invoice; price and FLOP conversion assumptions. "
  },
  {
    "component_id": "jamba15",
    "organization": "AI21 Labs",
    "family": "Jamba 1.5 Large — base scenario",
    "low_musd": 0,
    "central_musd": 8.121599999999999,
    "high_musd": 33.84,
    "documented_input_central_musd": 0,
    "scenario_remainder_central_musd": 8.121599999999999,
    "sources": [
      "https://arxiv.org/html/2408.12570v1"
    ],
    "method": "6ND proxy; 94B active × [4, 8, 15]T tokens; token volumes ASSUMED; $0.8/1.8/4M per 1e24 FLOP.",
    "overlap_review": "One Large lineage;1.6/1.7/Mini/Jamba2 not separately costed.",
    "lineage_uncertain": true,
    "flops_1e24": [
      2.256,
      4.512,
      8.46
    ],
    "evidence_grade": "C",
    "unresolved": "No actual dollar invoice; price and FLOP conversion assumptions. Independent-run scenario; reuse/upcycling not excluded."
  },
  {
    "component_id": "step3",
    "organization": "StepFun",
    "family": "Step 3 — base scenario",
    "low_musd": 0,
    "central_musd": 7.3872,
    "high_musd": 27.36,
    "documented_input_central_musd": 0,
    "scenario_remainder_central_musd": 7.3872,
    "sources": [
      "https://huggingface.co/stepfun-ai/step3"
    ],
    "method": "6ND proxy; 38B active × [10, 18, 30]T tokens; token volumes ASSUMED; $0.8/1.8/4M per 1e24 FLOP.",
    "overlap_review": "V3 Step5 explicitly excluded Step3; distinct-run assumption, vision extra excluded.",
    "lineage_uncertain": true,
    "flops_1e24": [
      2.28,
      4.104,
      6.84
    ],
    "evidence_grade": "C",
    "unresolved": "No actual dollar invoice; price and FLOP conversion assumptions. Independent-run scenario; reuse/upcycling not excluded."
  },
  {
    "component_id": "step35",
    "organization": "StepFun",
    "family": "Step 3.5 Flash — base scenario",
    "low_musd": 0,
    "central_musd": 2.9699999999999998,
    "high_musd": 10.56,
    "documented_input_central_musd": 0,
    "scenario_remainder_central_musd": 2.9699999999999998,
    "sources": [
      "https://huggingface.co/stepfun-ai/Step-3.5-Flash-Base"
    ],
    "method": "6ND proxy; 11B active × [15, 25, 40]T tokens; token volumes ASSUMED; $0.8/1.8/4M per 1e24 FLOP.",
    "overlap_review": "Separate base assumed, not proven from architecture.3.7 and midtrain checkpoint not charged separately.",
    "lineage_uncertain": true,
    "flops_1e24": [
      0.99,
      1.65,
      2.64
    ],
    "evidence_grade": "C",
    "unresolved": "No actual dollar invoice; price and FLOP conversion assumptions. Independent-run scenario; reuse/upcycling not excluded."
  },
  {
    "component_id": "olmo3",
    "organization": "Ai2",
    "family": "OLMo 3 — 7B + 32B pretraining",
    "low_musd": 1.0440479999999999,
    "central_musd": 2.3491079999999998,
    "high_musd": 5.2202399999999995,
    "documented_input_central_musd": 2.3491079999999998,
    "scenario_remainder_central_musd": 0,
    "sources": [
      "https://huggingface.co/allenai/Olmo-3-1125-32B"
    ],
    "method": "Reported5.93T/5.50T; nominal7B/32B;6ND. Later stages omitted.",
    "overlap_review": "OLMo2 allowance limited to OLMo2; OLMo3 treated as new pretraining generation.",
    "lineage_uncertain": false,
    "flops_1e24": [
      1.3050599999999999,
      1.3050599999999999,
      1.3050599999999999
    ],
    "evidence_grade": "B",
    "unresolved": "No actual dollar invoice; price and FLOP conversion assumptions. "
  },
  {
    "component_id": "mistral-small4",
    "organization": "Mistral AI",
    "family": "Mistral Small 4 — base scenario",
    "low_musd": 0,
    "central_musd": 1.755,
    "high_musd": 6.24,
    "documented_input_central_musd": 0,
    "scenario_remainder_central_musd": 1.755,
    "sources": [
      "https://huggingface.co/mistralai/Mistral-Small-4-119B-2603"
    ],
    "method": "6ND proxy; 6.5B active × [15, 25, 40]T tokens; token volumes ASSUMED; $0.8/1.8/4M per 1e24 FLOP.",
    "overlap_review": "Independent/upcycled status unknown. Leanstral not added.",
    "lineage_uncertain": true,
    "flops_1e24": [
      0.585,
      0.975,
      1.56
    ],
    "evidence_grade": "C",
    "unresolved": "No actual dollar invoice; price and FLOP conversion assumptions. Independent-run scenario; reuse/upcycling not excluded."
  },
  {
    "component_id": "mistral-small3",
    "organization": "Mistral AI",
    "family": "Mistral Small 3 — 24B base scenario",
    "low_musd": 0,
    "central_musd": 4.6656,
    "high_musd": 17.28,
    "documented_input_central_musd": 0,
    "scenario_remainder_central_musd": 4.6656,
    "sources": [
      "https://huggingface.co/mistralai/Mistral-Small-24B-Base-2501"
    ],
    "method": "6ND proxy; 24B active × [10, 18, 30]T tokens; token volumes ASSUMED; $0.8/1.8/4M per 1e24 FLOP.",
    "overlap_review": "One24B lineage;Small3.1/3.2,Magistral,DevstralSmall,VoxtralSmall not separately added.",
    "lineage_uncertain": true,
    "flops_1e24": [
      1.44,
      2.592,
      4.32
    ],
    "evidence_grade": "C",
    "unresolved": "No actual dollar invoice; price and FLOP conversion assumptions. Independent-run scenario; reuse/upcycling not excluded."
  },
  {
    "component_id": "mistral-nemo",
    "organization": "Mistral AI",
    "family": "Mistral NeMo — 12B joint base",
    "low_musd": 0.2304,
    "central_musd": 1.0368,
    "high_musd": 4.32,
    "documented_input_central_musd": 0,
    "scenario_remainder_central_musd": 1.0368,
    "sources": [
      "https://huggingface.co/mistralai/Mistral-Nemo-Base-2407"
    ],
    "method": "6ND proxy; 12B active × [4, 8, 15]T tokens; token volumes ASSUMED; $0.8/1.8/4M per 1e24 FLOP.",
    "overlap_review": "Joint NVIDIA/Mistral model counted once under Mistral; NVIDIA mirror and Pixtral not additional base.",
    "lineage_uncertain": false,
    "flops_1e24": [
      0.288,
      0.576,
      1.08
    ],
    "evidence_grade": "C",
    "unresolved": "No actual dollar invoice; price and FLOP conversion assumptions. "
  },
  {
    "component_id": "mistral7",
    "organization": "Mistral AI",
    "family": "Mistral 7B — original base",
    "low_musd": 0.05184000000000001,
    "central_musd": 0.1944,
    "high_musd": 0.6912,
    "documented_input_central_musd": 0,
    "scenario_remainder_central_musd": 0.1944,
    "sources": [
      "https://huggingface.co/mistralai/Mistral-7B-v0.1"
    ],
    "method": "6ND proxy; 7.2B active × [1.5, 2.5, 4]T tokens; token volumes ASSUMED; $0.8/1.8/4M per 1e24 FLOP.",
    "overlap_review": "v0.2/v0.3/Mathstral not separately added; Mamba excluded.",
    "lineage_uncertain": false,
    "flops_1e24": [
      0.06480000000000001,
      0.108,
      0.1728
    ],
    "evidence_grade": "C",
    "unresolved": "No actual dollar invoice; price and FLOP conversion assumptions. "
  },
  {
    "component_id": "codestral",
    "organization": "Mistral AI",
    "family": "Codestral 22B — one base scenario",
    "low_musd": 0,
    "central_musd": 1.9180799999999998,
    "high_musd": 7.991999999999999,
    "documented_input_central_musd": 0,
    "scenario_remainder_central_musd": 1.9180799999999998,
    "sources": [
      "https://huggingface.co/mistralai/Codestral-22B-v0.1"
    ],
    "method": "6ND proxy; 22.2B active × [4, 8, 15]T tokens; token volumes ASSUMED; $0.8/1.8/4M per 1e24 FLOP.",
    "overlap_review": "Small2409 may share base: not added; Ministral8B2410 excluded.",
    "lineage_uncertain": true,
    "flops_1e24": [
      0.5327999999999999,
      1.0655999999999999,
      1.9979999999999998
    ],
    "evidence_grade": "C",
    "unresolved": "No actual dollar invoice; price and FLOP conversion assumptions. Independent-run scenario; reuse/upcycling not excluded."
  }
]