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SubscribeWhen an LLM is apprehensive about its answers -- and when its uncertainty is justified
Uncertainty estimation is crucial for evaluating Large Language Models (LLMs), particularly in high-stakes domains where incorrect answers result in significant consequences. Numerous approaches consider this problem, while focusing on a specific type of uncertainty, ignoring others. We investigate what estimates, specifically token-wise entropy and model-as-judge (MASJ), would work for multiple-choice question-answering tasks for different question topics. Our experiments consider three LLMs: Phi-4, Mistral, and Qwen of different sizes from 1.5B to 72B and 14 topics. While MASJ performs similarly to a random error predictor, the response entropy predicts model error in knowledge-dependent domains and serves as an effective indicator of question difficulty: for biology ROC AUC is 0.73. This correlation vanishes for the reasoning-dependent domain: for math questions ROC-AUC is 0.55. More principally, we found out that the entropy measure required a reasoning amount. Thus, data-uncertainty related entropy should be integrated within uncertainty estimates frameworks, while MASJ requires refinement. Moreover, existing MMLU-Pro samples are biased, and should balance required amount of reasoning for different subdomains to provide a more fair assessment of LLMs performance.
PEAR: Phase Entropy Aware Reward for Efficient Reasoning
Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have achieved impressive performance on complex reasoning tasks by generating detailed chain-of-thought (CoT) explanations. However, these responses are often excessively long, containing redundant reasoning steps that inflate inference cost and reduce usability. Controlling the length of generated reasoning without sacrificing accuracy remains an open challenge. Through a systematic empirical analysis, we reveal a consistent positive correlation between model entropy and response length at different reasoning stages across diverse LRMs: the thinking phase exhibits higher entropy, reflecting exploratory behavior of longer responses, while the final answer phase shows lower entropy, indicating a more deterministic solution. This observation suggests that entropy at different reasoning stages can serve as a control knob for balancing conciseness and performance. Based on this insight, this paper introduces Phase Entropy Aware Reward (PEAR), a reward mechanism that incorporating phase-dependent entropy into the reward design. Instead of treating all tokens uniformly, PEAR penalize excessive entropy during the thinking phase and allowing moderate exploration at the final answer phase, which encourages models to generate concise reasoning traces that retain sufficient flexibility to solve the task correctly. This enables adaptive control of response length without relying on explicit length targets or rigid truncation rules. Extensive experiments across four benchmarks demonstrate that PEAR consistently reduces response length while sustaining competitive accuracy across model scales. In addition, PEAR demonstrates strong out-of-distribution (OOD) robustness beyond the training distribution. Our code is available at: https://github.com/iNLP-Lab/PEAR.
Conditional Advantage Estimation for Reinforcement Learning in Large Reasoning Models
Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) for large language models (LLMs) has achieved remarkable progress in enhancing LLMs' reasoning capabilities on tasks with clear correctness criteria, such as mathematical reasoning tasks. Several training metrics, such as entropy or response length, have been observed to correlate with different reasoning behaviors in reinforcement learning. Prior approaches incorporate such priors through reward or advantage shaping, which often relies on hand-crafted penalties and preferences (e.g., higher-is-better or lower-is-better). However, without careful hyperparameter tuning, these directional priors can be overly biased and may lead to failure. To this end, we introduce Conditional advANtage estimatiON (CANON), amplifying the impact of the target metric without presuming its direction. Specifically, CANON regroups the sampled responses into two groups based on the higher or lower value of a target metric, measures which metric trend contributes to better performance through inter-group comparison, and identifies the better response within the same group. In summary, CANON based on entropy consistently outperforms prior methods across three LLMs on both math reasoning and high-complexity logic tasks. When applied to response length, CANON further improves token efficiency, yielding a more favorable Pareto frontier in the performance-cost trade-off.
AILuminate: Introducing v1.0 of the AI Risk and Reliability Benchmark from MLCommons
The rapid advancement and deployment of AI systems have created an urgent need for standard safety-evaluation frameworks. This paper introduces AILuminate v1.0, the first comprehensive industry-standard benchmark for assessing AI-product risk and reliability. Its development employed an open process that included participants from multiple fields. The benchmark evaluates an AI system's resistance to prompts designed to elicit dangerous, illegal, or undesirable behavior in 12 hazard categories, including violent crimes, nonviolent crimes, sex-related crimes, child sexual exploitation, indiscriminate weapons, suicide and self-harm, intellectual property, privacy, defamation, hate, sexual content, and specialized advice (election, financial, health, legal). Our method incorporates a complete assessment standard, extensive prompt datasets, a novel evaluation framework, a grading and reporting system, and the technical as well as organizational infrastructure for long-term support and evolution. In particular, the benchmark employs an understandable five-tier grading scale (Poor to Excellent) and incorporates an innovative entropy-based system-response evaluation. In addition to unveiling the benchmark, this report also identifies limitations of our method and of building safety benchmarks generally, including evaluator uncertainty and the constraints of single-turn interactions. This work represents a crucial step toward establishing global standards for AI risk and reliability evaluation while acknowledging the need for continued development in areas such as multiturn interactions, multimodal understanding, coverage of additional languages, and emerging hazard categories. Our findings provide valuable insights for model developers, system integrators, and policymakers working to promote safer AI deployment.
EntroPE: Entropy-Guided Dynamic Patch Encoder for Time Series Forecasting
Transformer-based models have significantly advanced time series forecasting, with patch-based input strategies offering efficiency and improved long-horizon modeling. Yet, existing approaches rely on temporally-agnostic patch construction, where arbitrary starting positions and fixed lengths fracture temporal coherence by splitting natural transitions across boundaries. This naive segmentation often disrupts short-term dependencies and weakens representation learning. In response, we propose EntroPE (Entropy-Guided Dynamic Patch Encoder), a novel, temporally informed framework that dynamically detects transition points via conditional entropy and dynamically places patch boundaries. This preserves temporal structure while retaining the computational benefits of patching. EntroPE consists of two key modules, namely an Entropy-based Dynamic Patcher (EDP) that applies information-theoretic criteria to locate natural temporal shifts and determine patch boundaries, and an Adaptive Patch Encoder (APE) that employs pooling and cross-attention to capture intra-patch dependencies and produce fixed-size latent representations. These embeddings are then processed by a global transformer to model inter-patch dynamics. Experiments across long-term forecasting benchmarks demonstrate that EntroPE improves both accuracy and efficiency, establishing entropy-guided dynamic patching as a promising new paradigm for time series modeling. Code is available at: https://github.com/Sachithx/EntroPE.
Rethinking Entropy Regularization in Large Reasoning Models
Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has shown great promise in enhancing the reasoning abilities of large reasoning models (LRMs). However, it suffers from a critical issue: entropy collapse and premature convergence. Naive entropy regularization, a common approach for encouraging exploration in the traditional RL literature, fails to address this problem in the context of LRM. Our analysis reveals that this failure stems from the vast action space and long trajectories in LRMs, which easily trigger a global entropy explosion as the model indiscriminately explores all possible actions and states. To address this, we propose SIREN (SelectIve entRopy rEgularizatioN), a method that confines exploration to a meaningful subset of actions and states. SIREN achieves this through a two-step entropy masking mechanism, consisting of a top-p mask and a peak-entropy mask. In addition, regularization is transformed into a self-anchored form to stabilize training. Across five mathematical benchmarks, SIREN attains superior average performance over previous entropy-related RLVR approaches, exemplified by a +6.6 maj@k improvement on AIME24/25 with Qwen2.5-Math-7B. Further analysis confirms that SIREN promotes greater response diversity and maintains entropy at an appropriate level, which helps to preserve the validation pass@k throughout training. This effectively mitigates the premature convergence problem common in RLVR for LRM.
Quantile Advantage Estimation for Entropy-Safe Reasoning
Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) strengthens LLM reasoning, but training often oscillates between {entropy collapse} and {entropy explosion}. We trace both hazards to the mean baseline used in value-free RL (e.g., GRPO and DAPO), which improperly penalizes negative-advantage samples under reward outliers. We propose {Quantile Advantage Estimation} (QAE), replacing the mean with a group-wise K-quantile baseline. QAE induces a response-level, two-regime gate: on hard queries (p <= 1 - K) it reinforces rare successes, while on easy queries (p > 1 - K) it targets remaining failures. Under first-order softmax updates, we prove {two-sided entropy safety}, giving lower and upper bounds on one-step entropy change that curb explosion and prevent collapse. Empirically, this minimal modification stabilizes entropy, sparsifies credit assignment (with tuned K, roughly 80% of responses receive zero advantage), and yields sustained pass@1 gains on Qwen3-8B/14B-Base across AIME 2024/2025 and AMC 2023. These results identify {baseline design} -- rather than token-level heuristics -- as the primary mechanism for scaling RLVR.
EDGE-GRPO: Entropy-Driven GRPO with Guided Error Correction for Advantage Diversity
Large Language Models (LLMs) have made remarkable progress in enhancing step-by-step reasoning through reinforcement learning. However, the Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) algorithm, which relies on sparse reward rules, often encounters the issue of identical rewards within groups, leading to the advantage collapse problem. Existing works typically address this challenge from two perspectives: enforcing model reflection to enhance response diversity, and introducing internal feedback to augment the training signal (advantage). In this work, we begin by analyzing the limitations of model reflection and investigating the policy entropy of responses at the fine-grained sample level. Based on our experimental findings, we propose the EDGE-GRPO algorithm, which adopts Entropy-Driven Advantage and Guided Error Correction to effectively mitigate the problem of advantage collapse. Extensive experiments on several main reasoning benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of our approach. It is available at https://github.com/ZhangXJ199/EDGE-GRPO.
On Entropy Control in LLM-RL Algorithms
For RL algorithms, appropriate entropy control is crucial to their effectiveness. To control the policy entropy, a commonly used method is entropy regularization, which is adopted in various popular RL algorithms including PPO, SAC and A3C. Although entropy regularization proves effective in robotic and games RL conventionally, studies found that it gives weak to no gains in LLM-RL training. In this work, we study the issues of entropy bonus in LLM-RL setting. Specifically, we first argue that the conventional entropy regularization suffers from the LLM's extremely large response space and the sparsity of the optimal outputs. As a remedy, we propose AEnt, an entropy control method that utilizes a new clamped entropy bonus with an automatically adjusted coefficient. The clamped entropy is evaluated with the re-normalized policy defined on certain smaller token space, which encourages exploration within a more compact response set. In addition, the algorithm automatically adjusts entropy coefficient according to the clamped entropy value, effectively controlling the entropy-induced bias while leveraging the entropy's benefits. AEnt is tested in math-reasoning tasks under different base models and datasets, and it is observed that AEnt outperforms the baselines consistently across multiple benchmarks.
Maximum Entropy Heterogeneous-Agent Reinforcement Learning
Multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) has been shown effective for cooperative games in recent years. However, existing state-of-the-art methods face challenges related to sample complexity, training instability, and the risk of converging to a suboptimal Nash Equilibrium. In this paper, we propose a unified framework for learning stochastic policies to resolve these issues. We embed cooperative MARL problems into probabilistic graphical models, from which we derive the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) objective for MARL. Based on the MaxEnt framework, we propose Heterogeneous-Agent Soft Actor-Critic (HASAC) algorithm. Theoretically, we prove the monotonic improvement and convergence to quantal response equilibrium (QRE) properties of HASAC. Furthermore, we generalize a unified template for MaxEnt algorithmic design named Maximum Entropy Heterogeneous-Agent Mirror Learning (MEHAML), which provides any induced method with the same guarantees as HASAC. We evaluate HASAC on six benchmarks: Bi-DexHands, Multi-Agent MuJoCo, StarCraft Multi-Agent Challenge, Google Research Football, Multi-Agent Particle Environment, and Light Aircraft Game. Results show that HASAC consistently outperforms strong baselines, exhibiting better sample efficiency, robustness, and sufficient exploration.
Robust Adversarial Reinforcement Learning via Bounded Rationality Curricula
Robustness against adversarial attacks and distribution shifts is a long-standing goal of Reinforcement Learning (RL). To this end, Robust Adversarial Reinforcement Learning (RARL) trains a protagonist against destabilizing forces exercised by an adversary in a competitive zero-sum Markov game, whose optimal solution, i.e., rational strategy, corresponds to a Nash equilibrium. However, finding Nash equilibria requires facing complex saddle point optimization problems, which can be prohibitive to solve, especially for high-dimensional control. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for adversarial RL based on entropy regularization to ease the complexity of the saddle point optimization problem. We show that the solution of this entropy-regularized problem corresponds to a Quantal Response Equilibrium (QRE), a generalization of Nash equilibria that accounts for bounded rationality, i.e., agents sometimes play random actions instead of optimal ones. Crucially, the connection between the entropy-regularized objective and QRE enables free modulation of the rationality of the agents by simply tuning the temperature coefficient. We leverage this insight to propose our novel algorithm, Quantal Adversarial RL (QARL), which gradually increases the rationality of the adversary in a curriculum fashion until it is fully rational, easing the complexity of the optimization problem while retaining robustness. We provide extensive evidence of QARL outperforming RARL and recent baselines across several MuJoCo locomotion and navigation problems in overall performance and robustness.
Dual Semantic Knowledge Composed Multimodal Dialog Systems
Textual response generation is an essential task for multimodal task-oriented dialog systems.Although existing studies have achieved fruitful progress, they still suffer from two critical limitations: 1) focusing on the attribute knowledge but ignoring the relation knowledge that can reveal the correlations between different entities and hence promote the response generation}, and 2) only conducting the cross-entropy loss based output-level supervision but lacking the representation-level regularization. To address these limitations, we devise a novel multimodal task-oriented dialog system (named MDS-S2). Specifically, MDS-S2 first simultaneously acquires the context related attribute and relation knowledge from the knowledge base, whereby the non-intuitive relation knowledge is extracted by the n-hop graph walk. Thereafter, considering that the attribute knowledge and relation knowledge can benefit the responding to different levels of questions, we design a multi-level knowledge composition module in MDS-S2 to obtain the latent composed response representation. Moreover, we devise a set of latent query variables to distill the semantic information from the composed response representation and the ground truth response representation, respectively, and thus conduct the representation-level semantic regularization. Extensive experiments on a public dataset have verified the superiority of our proposed MDS-S2. We have released the codes and parameters to facilitate the research community.
Preference-Oriented Supervised Fine-Tuning: Favoring Target Model Over Aligned Large Language Models
Alignment, endowing a pre-trained Large language model (LLM) with the ability to follow instructions, is crucial for its real-world applications. Conventional supervised fine-tuning (SFT) methods formalize it as causal language modeling typically with a cross-entropy objective, requiring a large amount of high-quality instruction-response pairs. However, the quality of widely used SFT datasets can not be guaranteed due to the high cost and intensive labor for the creation and maintenance in practice. To overcome the limitations associated with the quality of SFT datasets, we introduce a novel preference-oriented supervised fine-tuning approach, namely PoFT. The intuition is to boost SFT by imposing a particular preference: favoring the target model over aligned LLMs on the same SFT data. This preference encourages the target model to predict a higher likelihood than that predicted by the aligned LLMs, incorporating assessment information on data quality (i.e., predicted likelihood by the aligned LLMs) into the training process. Extensive experiments are conducted, and the results validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. PoFT achieves stable and consistent improvements over the SFT baselines across different training datasets and base models. Moreover, we prove that PoFT can be integrated with existing SFT data filtering methods to achieve better performance, and further improved by following preference optimization procedures, such as DPO.
Free Process Rewards without Process Labels
Different from its counterpart outcome reward models (ORMs), which evaluate the entire responses, a process reward model (PRM) scores a reasoning trajectory step by step, providing denser and more fine grained rewards. However, training a PRM requires labels annotated at every intermediate step, presenting significant challenges for both manual and automatic data collection. This paper aims to address this challenge. Both theoretically and empirically, we show that an implicit PRM can be obtained at no additional cost, by simply training an ORM on the cheaper response-level labels. The only assumption is to parameterize the outcome reward as the log-likelihood ratios of the policy and reference models, which can be optimized regardless of the specific choice of loss objectives. In experiments, we instantiate our implicit PRMs with various objectives and evaluate their performance on MATH. We show that our implicit PRM outperforms a strong MCTS-based baseline \'a la Math-Shepherd using less than 1/38 of the training data. Its performance can be further improved with majority voting. We further find that scaling up instructions and responses benefits our implicit PRM, and the latter brings a larger gain. Particularly, we find that our implicit PRM, when instantiated with the cross-entropy (CE) loss, is more data-efficient and can keep improving generation models even when trained with only one response per instruction, the setup that suffers from extreme data scarcity and imbalance. Further, instructions should be relevant to downstream tasks while the diversity of responses does not bring gains. Surprisingly, training on extra Math-Shepherd step labels brings no further improvements to our implicit PRM trained on only outcome data. We hope that our work will encourage a rethinking of PRM training approaches and contribute to making training PRMs more accessible.
