Daily Papers

Vaccine supply chain optimization can benefit from hierarchical time series forecasting, when grouping the vaccines by type or location. However, forecasts of different hierarchy levels become incoherent when higher levels do not match the sum of the lower levels forecasts, which can be addressed by reconciliation methods. In this paper, we tackle the vaccine sale forecasting problem by modeling sales data from GSK between 2010 and 2021 as a hierarchical time series. After forecasting future values with several ARIMA models, we systematically compare the performance of various reconciliation methods, using statistical tests. We also compare the performance of the forecast before and after COVID. The results highlight Minimum Trace and Weighted Least Squares with Structural scaling as the best performing methods, which provided a coherent forecast while reducing the forecast error of the baseline ARIMA.

We carefully evaluate a number of algorithms for learning in a federated environment, and test their utility for a variety of image classification tasks. We consider many issues that have not been adequately considered before: whether learning over data sets that do not have diverse sets of images affects the results; whether to use a pre-trained feature extraction "backbone"; how to evaluate learner performance (we argue that classification accuracy is not enough), among others. Overall, across a wide variety of settings, we find that vertically decomposing a neural network seems to give the best results, and outperforms more standard reconciliation-used methods.

Multimodal Retrieval-Augmented Generation (MMRAG) has been introduced to enhance Multimodal Large Language Models by incorporating externally retrieved multimodal knowledge, but it introduces two challenges: Parametric-Retrieved Knowledge Inconsistency (PRKI), where discrepancies between parametric and retrieved knowledge create uncertainty in determining reliability, and Visual-Textual Knowledge Inconsistency (VTKI), where misalignment between visual and textual sources disrupts entity representation. To address these challenges, we propose Cross-source knowledge Reconciliation for Multimodal RAG (CoRe-MMRAG), a novel end-to-end framework that effectively reconciles inconsistencies across knowledge sources. CoRe-MMRAG follows a four-stage pipeline: it first generates an internal response from parametric knowledge, then selects the most relevant multimodal evidence via joint similarity assessment, generates an external response, and finally integrates both to produce a reliable answer. Additionally, a specialized training paradigm enhances knowledge source discrimination, multimodal integration, and unified answer generation. Experiments on KB-VQA benchmarks show that CoRe-MMRAG achieves substantial improvements over baseline methods, achieving 5.6% and 9.3% performance gains on InfoSeek and Encyclopedic-VQA, respectively.

Seven years ago, researchers proposed a postprocessing method to equalize the error rates of a model across different demographic groups. The work launched hundreds of papers purporting to improve over the postprocessing baseline. We empirically evaluate these claims through thousands of model evaluations on several tabular datasets. We find that the fairness-accuracy Pareto frontier achieved by postprocessing contains all other methods we were feasibly able to evaluate. In doing so, we address two common methodological errors that have confounded previous observations. One relates to the comparison of methods with different unconstrained base models. The other concerns methods achieving different levels of constraint relaxation. At the heart of our study is a simple idea we call unprocessing that roughly corresponds to the inverse of postprocessing. Unprocessing allows for a direct comparison of methods using different underlying models and levels of relaxation.