Daily Papers

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.

Simulating rare events, such as the transformation of a reactant into a product in a chemical reaction typically requires enhanced sampling techniques that rely on heuristically chosen collective variables (CVs). We propose using differentiable simulations (DiffSim) for the discovery and enhanced sampling of chemical transformations without a need to resort to preselected CVs, using only a distance metric. Reaction path discovery and estimation of the biasing potential that enhances the sampling are merged into a single end-to-end problem that is solved by path-integral optimization. This is achieved by introducing multiple improvements over standard DiffSim such as partial backpropagation and graph mini-batching making DiffSim training stable and efficient. The potential of DiffSim is demonstrated in the successful discovery of transition paths for the Muller-Brown model potential as well as a benchmark chemical system - alanine dipeptide.

Identifying recurring patterns and rare events in large-scale signals is a fundamental challenge in fields such as astronomy, physical simulations, and biomedical science. Convolutional Dictionary Learning (CDL) offers a powerful framework for modeling local structures in signals, but its use for detecting rare or anomalous events remains largely unexplored. In particular, CDL faces two key challenges in this setting: high computational cost and sensitivity to artifacts and outliers. In this paper, we introduce RoseCDL, a scalable and robust CDL algorithm designed for unsupervised rare event detection in long signals. RoseCDL combines stochastic windowing for efficient training on large datasets with inline outlier detection to enhance robustness and isolate anomalous patterns. This reframes CDL as a practical tool for event discovery and characterization in real-world signals, extending its role beyond traditional tasks like compression or denoising.

To advance automated detection of extreme weather events, which are increasing in frequency and intensity with climate change, we explore modifications to a novel light-weight Context Guided convolutional neural network architecture trained for semantic segmentation of tropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers in climate data. Our primary focus is on tropical cyclones, the most destructive weather events, for which current models show limited performance. We investigate feature engineering, data augmentation, learning rate modifications, alternative loss functions, and architectural changes. In contrast to previous approaches optimizing for intersection over union, we specifically seek to improve recall to penalize under-counting and prioritize identification of tropical cyclones. We report success through the use of weighted loss functions to counter class imbalance for these rare events. We conclude with directions for future research on extreme weather events detection, a crucial task for prediction, mitigation, and equitable adaptation to the impacts of climate change.

Weather radar is the primary tool used by forecasters to detect and warn for tornadoes in near-real time. In order to assist forecasters in warning the public, several algorithms have been developed to automatically detect tornadic signatures in weather radar observations. Recently, Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, which learn directly from large amounts of labeled data, have been shown to be highly effective for this purpose. Since tornadoes are extremely rare events within the corpus of all available radar observations, the selection and design of training datasets for ML applications is critical for the performance, robustness, and ultimate acceptance of ML algorithms. This study introduces a new benchmark dataset, TorNet to support development of ML algorithms in tornado detection and prediction. TorNet contains full-resolution, polarimetric, Level-II WSR-88D data sampled from 10 years of reported storm events. A number of ML baselines for tornado detection are developed and compared, including a novel deep learning (DL) architecture capable of processing raw radar imagery without the need for manual feature extraction required for existing ML algorithms. Despite not benefiting from manual feature engineering or other preprocessing, the DL model shows increased detection performance compared to non-DL and operational baselines. The TorNet dataset, as well as source code and model weights of the DL baseline trained in this work, are made freely available.

Foundation models are reshaping computational pathology by enabling transfer learning, where models pre-trained on vast datasets can be adapted for downstream diagnostic, prognostic, and therapeutic response tasks. Despite these advances, foundation models are still limited in their ability to encode the entire gigapixel whole-slide images without additional training and often lack complementary multimodal data. Here, we introduce Threads, a slide-level foundation model capable of generating universal representations of whole-slide images of any size. Threads was pre-trained using a multimodal learning approach on a diverse cohort of 47,171 hematoxylin and eosin (H&E)-stained tissue sections, paired with corresponding genomic and transcriptomic profiles - the largest such paired dataset to be used for foundation model development to date. This unique training paradigm enables Threads to capture the tissue's underlying molecular composition, yielding powerful representations applicable to a wide array of downstream tasks. In extensive benchmarking across 54 oncology tasks, including clinical subtyping, grading, mutation prediction, immunohistochemistry status determination, treatment response prediction, and survival prediction, Threads outperformed all baselines while demonstrating remarkable generalizability and label efficiency. It is particularly well suited for predicting rare events, further emphasizing its clinical utility. We intend to make the model publicly available for the broader community.

This study developed a novel method for detecting hypernuclear events recorded in nuclear emulsion sheets using machine learning techniques. The artificial neural network-based object detection model was trained on surrogate images created through Monte Carlo simulations and image-style transformations using generative adversarial networks. The performance of the proposed model was evaluated using alpha-decay events obtained from the J-PARC E07 emulsion data. The model achieved approximately twice the detection efficiency of conventional image processing and reduced the time spent on manual visual inspection by approximately 1/17. The established method was successfully applied to the detection of hypernuclear events. This approach is a state-of-the-art tool for discovering rare events recorded in nuclear emulsion sheets without any real data for training.

In molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, rare events, such as protein folding, are typically studied by means of enhanced sampling techniques, most of which rely on the definition of a collective variable (CV) along which the acceleration occurs. Obtaining an expressive CV is crucial, but often hindered by the lack of information about the particular event, e.g., the transition from unfolded to folded conformation. We propose a simulation-free data augmentation strategy using physics-inspired metrics to generate geodesic interpolations resembling protein folding transitions, thereby improving sampling efficiency without true transition state samples. Leveraging interpolation progress parameters, we introduce a regression-based learning scheme for CV models, which outperforms classifier-based methods when transition state data is limited and noisy

The core obstacle towards a large-scale deployment of autonomous vehicles currently lies in the long tail of rare events. These are extremely challenging since they do not occur often in the utilized training data for deep neural networks. To tackle this problem, we propose the generation of additional synthetic training data, covering a wide variety of corner case scenarios. As ontologies can represent human expert knowledge while enabling computational processing, we use them to describe scenarios. Our proposed master ontology is capable to model scenarios from all common corner case categories found in the literature. From this one master ontology, arbitrary scenario-describing ontologies can be derived. In an automated fashion, these can be converted into the OpenSCENARIO format and subsequently executed in simulation. This way, also challenging test and evaluation scenarios can be generated.

In this work, we present a manually annotated corpus for Adverse Event (AE) extraction from discharge summaries of elderly patients, a population often underrepresented in clinical NLP resources. The dataset includes 14 clinically significant AEs-such as falls, delirium, and intracranial haemorrhage, along with contextual attributes like negation, diagnosis type, and in-hospital occurrence. Uniquely, the annotation schema supports both discontinuous and overlapping entities, addressing challenges rarely tackled in prior work. We evaluate multiple models using FlairNLP across three annotation granularities: fine-grained, coarse-grained, and coarse-grained with negation. While transformer-based models (e.g., BERT-cased) achieve strong performance on document-level coarse-grained extraction (F1 = 0.943), performance drops notably for fine-grained entity-level tasks (e.g., F1 = 0.675), particularly for rare events and complex attributes. These results demonstrate that despite high-level scores, significant challenges remain in detecting underrepresented AEs and capturing nuanced clinical language. Developed within a Trusted Research Environment (TRE), the dataset is available upon request via DataLoch and serves as a robust benchmark for evaluating AE extraction methods and supporting future cross-dataset generalisation.

The Copernicus Regional Reanalysis for Europe, CERRA, is a high-resolution regional reanalysis dataset for the European domain. In recent years it has shown significant utility across various climate-related tasks, ranging from forecasting and climate change research to renewable energy prediction, resource management, air quality risk assessment, and the forecasting of rare events, among others. Unfortunately, the availability of CERRA is lagging two years behind the current date, due to constraints in acquiring the requisite external data and the intensive computational demands inherent in its generation. As a solution, this paper introduces a novel method using diffusion models to approximate CERRA downscaling in a data-driven manner, without additional informations. By leveraging the lower resolution ERA5 dataset, which provides boundary conditions for CERRA, we approach this as a super-resolution task. Focusing on wind speed around Italy, our model, trained on existing CERRA data, shows promising results, closely mirroring original CERRA data. Validation with in-situ observations further confirms the model's accuracy in approximating ground measurements.

We present a holistic approach to building a robust and useful natural language classification system for real-world content moderation. The success of such a system relies on a chain of carefully designed and executed steps, including the design of content taxonomies and labeling instructions, data quality control, an active learning pipeline to capture rare events, and a variety of methods to make the model robust and to avoid overfitting. Our moderation system is trained to detect a broad set of categories of undesired content, including sexual content, hateful content, violence, self-harm, and harassment. This approach generalizes to a wide range of different content taxonomies and can be used to create high-quality content classifiers that outperform off-the-shelf models.

Autoencoders have been proposed as a powerful tool for model-independent anomaly detection in high-energy physics. The operating principle is that events which do not belong to the space of training data will be reconstructed poorly, thus flagging them as anomalies. We point out that in a variety of examples of interest, the connection between large reconstruction error and anomalies is not so clear. In particular, for data sets with nontrivial topology, there will always be points that erroneously seem anomalous due to global issues. Conversely, neural networks typically have an inductive bias or prior to locally interpolate such that undersampled or rare events may be reconstructed with small error, despite actually being the desired anomalies. Taken together, these facts are in tension with the simple picture of the autoencoder as an anomaly detector. Using a series of illustrative low-dimensional examples, we show explicitly how the intrinsic and extrinsic topology of the dataset affects the behavior of an autoencoder and how this topology is manifested in the latent space representation during training. We ground this analysis in the discussion of a mock "bump hunt" in which the autoencoder fails to identify an anomalous "signal" for reasons tied to the intrinsic topology of n-particle phase space.

Interpretability of Deep Learning (DL) is a barrier to trustworthy AI. Despite great efforts made by the Explainable AI (XAI) community, explanations lack robustness -- indistinguishable input perturbations may lead to different XAI results. Thus, it is vital to assess how robust DL interpretability is, given an XAI method. In this paper, we identify several challenges that the state-of-the-art is unable to cope with collectively: i) existing metrics are not comprehensive; ii) XAI techniques are highly heterogeneous; iii) misinterpretations are normally rare events. To tackle these challenges, we introduce two black-box evaluation methods, concerning the worst-case interpretation discrepancy and a probabilistic notion of how robust in general, respectively. Genetic Algorithm (GA) with bespoke fitness function is used to solve constrained optimisation for efficient worst-case evaluation. Subset Simulation (SS), dedicated to estimate rare event probabilities, is used for evaluating overall robustness. Experiments show that the accuracy, sensitivity, and efficiency of our methods outperform the state-of-the-arts. Finally, we demonstrate two applications of our methods: ranking robust XAI methods and selecting training schemes to improve both classification and interpretation robustness.

Reducing traffic accidents is an important public safety challenge, therefore, accident analysis and prediction has been a topic of much research over the past few decades. Using small-scale datasets with limited coverage, being dependent on extensive set of data, and being not applicable for real-time purposes are the important shortcomings of the existing studies. To address these challenges, we propose a new solution for real-time traffic accident prediction using easy-to-obtain, but sparse data. Our solution relies on a deep-neural-network model (which we have named DAP, for Deep Accident Prediction); which utilizes a variety of data attributes such as traffic events, weather data, points-of-interest, and time. DAP incorporates multiple components including a recurrent (for time-sensitive data), a fully connected (for time-insensitive data), and a trainable embedding component (to capture spatial heterogeneity). To fill the data gap, we have - through a comprehensive process of data collection, integration, and augmentation - created a large-scale publicly available database of accident information named US-Accidents. By employing the US-Accidents dataset and through an extensive set of experiments across several large cities, we have evaluated our proposal against several baselines. Our analysis and results show significant improvements to predict rare accident events. Further, we have shown the impact of traffic information, time, and points-of-interest data for real-time accident prediction.

Accurate probabilistic weather forecasting demands both high accuracy and efficient uncertainty quantification, challenges that overburden both ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) and recent machine-learning methods. We introduce LaDCast, the first global latent-diffusion framework for medium-range ensemble forecasting, which generates hourly ensemble forecasts entirely in a learned latent space. An autoencoder compresses high-dimensional ERA5 reanalysis fields into a compact representation, and a transformer-based diffusion model produces sequential latent updates with arbitrary hour initialization. The model incorporates Geometric Rotary Position Embedding (GeoRoPE) to account for the Earth's spherical geometry, a dual-stream attention mechanism for efficient conditioning, and sinusoidal temporal embeddings to capture seasonal patterns. LaDCast achieves deterministic and probabilistic skill close to that of the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecast IFS-ENS, without any explicit perturbations. Notably, LaDCast demonstrates superior performance in tracking rare extreme events such as cyclones, capturing their trajectories more accurately than established models. By operating in latent space, LaDCast reduces storage and compute by orders of magnitude, demonstrating a practical path toward forecasting at kilometer-scale resolution in real time. We open-source our code and models and provide the training and evaluation pipelines at: https://github.com/tonyzyl/ladcast.

Log data have facilitated various tasks of software development and maintenance, such as testing, debugging and diagnosing. Due to the unstructured nature of logs, log parsing is typically required to transform log messages into structured data for automated log analysis. Given the abundance of log parsers that employ various techniques, evaluating these tools to comprehend their characteristics and performance becomes imperative. Loghub serves as a commonly used dataset for benchmarking log parsers, but it suffers from limited scale and representativeness, posing significant challenges for studies to comprehensively evaluate existing log parsers or develop new methods. This limitation is particularly pronounced when assessing these log parsers for production use. To address these limitations, we provide a new collection of annotated log datasets, denoted Loghub-2.0, which can better reflect the characteristics of log data in real-world software systems. Loghub-2.0 comprises 14 datasets with an average of 3.6 million log lines in each dataset. Based on Loghub-2.0, we conduct a thorough re-evaluation of 15 state-of-the-art log parsers in a more rigorous and practical setting. Particularly, we introduce a new evaluation metric to mitigate the sensitivity of existing metrics to imbalanced data distributions. We are also the first to investigate the granular performance of log parsers on logs that represent rare system events, offering in-depth details for software diagnosis. Accurately parsing such logs is essential, yet it remains a challenge. We believe this work could shed light on the evaluation and design of log parsers in practical settings, thereby facilitating their deployment in production systems.

Anomaly detection is the task of identifying examples that do not behave as expected. Because anomalies are rare and unexpected events, collecting real anomalous examples is often challenging in several applications. In addition, learning an anomaly detector with limited (or no) anomalies often yields poor prediction performance. One option is to employ auxiliary synthetic anomalies to improve the model training. However, synthetic anomalies may be of poor quality: anomalies that are unrealistic or indistinguishable from normal samples may deteriorate the detector's performance. Unfortunately, no existing methods quantify the quality of auxiliary anomalies. We fill in this gap and propose the expected anomaly posterior (EAP), an uncertainty-based score function that measures the quality of auxiliary anomalies by quantifying the total uncertainty of an anomaly detector. Experimentally on 40 benchmark datasets of images and tabular data, we show that EAP outperforms 12 adapted data quality estimators in the majority of cases.

Detecting the anomaly of human behavior is paramount to timely recognizing endangering situations, such as street fights or elderly falls. However, anomaly detection is complex since anomalous events are rare and because it is an open set recognition task, i.e., what is anomalous at inference has not been observed at training. We propose COSKAD, a novel model that encodes skeletal human motion by a graph convolutional network and learns to COntract SKeletal kinematic embeddings onto a latent hypersphere of minimum volume for Video Anomaly Detection. We propose three latent spaces: the commonly-adopted Euclidean and the novel spherical and hyperbolic. All variants outperform the state-of-the-art on the most recent UBnormal dataset, for which we contribute a human-related version with annotated skeletons. COSKAD sets a new state-of-the-art on the human-related versions of ShanghaiTech Campus and CUHK Avenue, with performance comparable to video-based methods. Source code and dataset will be released upon acceptance.

Large-scale Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have transformed general-purpose visual recognition through strong zero-shot capabilities. However, their performance degrades significantly in niche, safety-critical domains such as industrial spill detection, where hazardous events are rare, sensitive, and difficult to annotate. This scarcity -- driven by privacy concerns, data sensitivity, and the infrequency of real incidents -- renders conventional fine-tuning of detectors infeasible for most industrial settings. We address this challenge by introducing a scalable framework centered on a high-quality synthetic data generation pipeline. We demonstrate that this synthetic corpus enables effective Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) of VLMs and substantially boosts the performance of state-of-the-art object detectors such as YOLO and DETR. Notably, in the absence of synthetic data (SynSpill dataset), VLMs still generalize better to unseen spill scenarios than these detectors. When SynSpill is used, both VLMs and detectors achieve marked improvements, with their performance becoming comparable. Our results underscore that high-fidelity synthetic data is a powerful means to bridge the domain gap in safety-critical applications. The combination of synthetic generation and lightweight adaptation offers a cost-effective, scalable pathway for deploying vision systems in industrial environments where real data is scarce/impractical to obtain. Project Page: https://synspill.vercel.app

While language Models store a massive amount of world knowledge implicitly in their parameters, even very large models often fail to encode information about rare entities and events, while incurring huge computational costs. Recently, retrieval-augmented models, such as REALM, RAG, and RETRO, have incorporated world knowledge into language generation by leveraging an external non-parametric index and have demonstrated impressive performance with constrained model sizes. However, these methods are restricted to retrieving only textual knowledge, neglecting the ubiquitous amount of knowledge in other modalities like images -- much of which contains information not covered by any text. To address this limitation, we propose the first Multimodal Retrieval-Augmented Transformer (MuRAG), which accesses an external non-parametric multimodal memory to augment language generation. MuRAG is pre-trained with a mixture of large-scale image-text and text-only corpora using a joint contrastive and generative loss. We perform experiments on two different datasets that require retrieving and reasoning over both images and text to answer a given query: WebQA, and MultimodalQA. Our results show that MuRAG achieves state-of-the-art accuracy, outperforming existing models by 10-20\% absolute on both datasets and under both distractor and full-wiki settings.

Retrieving relevant imagery from vast satellite archives is crucial for applications like disaster response and long-term climate monitoring. However, most text-to-image retrieval systems are limited to RGB data, failing to exploit the unique physical information captured by other sensors, such as the all-weather structural sensitivity of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) or the spectral signatures in optical multispectral data. To bridge this gap, we introduce CrisisLandMark, a new large-scale corpus of over 647,000 Sentinel-1 SAR and Sentinel-2 multispectral images paired with structured textual annotations for land cover, land use, and crisis events harmonized from authoritative land cover systems (CORINE and Dynamic World) and crisis-specific sources. We then present CLOSP (Contrastive Language Optical SAR Pretraining), a novel framework that uses text as a bridge to align unpaired optical and SAR images into a unified embedding space. Our experiments show that CLOSP achieves a new state-of-the-art, improving retrieval nDGC by 54% over existing models. Additionally, we find that the unified training strategy overcomes the inherent difficulty of interpreting SAR imagery by transferring rich semantic knowledge from the optical domain with indirect interaction. Furthermore, GeoCLOSP, which integrates geographic coordinates into our framework, creates a powerful trade-off between generality and specificity: while the CLOSP excels at general semantic tasks, the GeoCLOSP becomes a specialized expert for retrieving location-dependent crisis events and rare geographic features. This work highlights that the integration of diverse sensor data and geographic context is essential for unlocking the full potential of remote sensing archives.

Air pollution remains a leading global health risk, exacerbated by rapid industrialization and urbanization, contributing significantly to morbidity and mortality rates. In this paper, we introduce AirCast, a novel multi-variable air pollution forecasting model, by combining weather and air quality variables. AirCast employs a multi-task head architecture that simultaneously forecasts atmospheric conditions and pollutant concentrations, improving its understanding of how weather patterns affect air quality. Predicting extreme pollution events is challenging due to their rare occurrence in historic data, resulting in a heavy-tailed distribution of pollution levels. To address this, we propose a novel Frequency-weighted Mean Absolute Error (fMAE) loss, adapted from the class-balanced loss for regression tasks. Informed from domain knowledge, we investigate the selection of key variables known to influence pollution levels. Additionally, we align existing weather and chemical datasets across spatial and temporal dimensions. AirCast's integrated approach, combining multi-task learning, frequency weighted loss and domain informed variable selection, enables more accurate pollution forecasts. Our source code and models are made public here (https://github.com/vishalned/AirCast.git)

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive results on natural language tasks, and security researchers are beginning to employ them in both offensive and defensive systems. In cyber-security, there have been multiple research efforts that utilize LLMs focusing on the pre-breach stage of attacks like phishing and malware generation. However, so far there lacks a comprehensive study regarding whether LLM-based systems can be leveraged to simulate the post-breach stage of attacks that are typically human-operated, or "hands-on-keyboard" attacks, under various attack techniques and environments. As LLMs inevitably advance, they may be able to automate both the pre- and post-breach attack stages. This shift may transform organizational attacks from rare, expert-led events to frequent, automated operations requiring no expertise and executed at automation speed and scale. This risks fundamentally changing global computer security and correspondingly causing substantial economic impacts, and a goal of this work is to better understand these risks now so we can better prepare for these inevitable ever-more-capable LLMs on the horizon. On the immediate impact side, this research serves three purposes. First, an automated LLM-based, post-breach exploitation framework can help analysts quickly test and continually improve their organization's network security posture against previously unseen attacks. Second, an LLM-based penetration test system can extend the effectiveness of red teams with a limited number of human analysts. Finally, this research can help defensive systems and teams learn to detect novel attack behaviors preemptively before their use in the wild....

Understanding the risks posed by extreme rainfall events requires analysis of precipitation fields with high resolution (to assess localized hazards) and extensive historical coverage (to capture sufficient examples of rare occurrences). Radar and mesonet networks provide precipitation fields at 1 km resolution but with limited historical and geographical coverage, while gauge-based records and reanalysis products cover decades of time on a global scale, but only at 30-50 km resolution. To help provide high-resolution precipitation estimates over long time scales, this study presents Wasserstein Regularized Diffusion (WassDiff), a diffusion framework to downscale (super-resolve) precipitation fields from low-resolution gauge and reanalysis products. Crucially, unlike related deep generative models, WassDiff integrates a Wasserstein distribution-matching regularizer to the denoising process to reduce empirical biases at extreme intensities. Comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that WassDiff quantitatively outperforms existing state-of-the-art generative downscaling methods at recovering extreme weather phenomena such as tropical storms and cold fronts. Case studies further qualitatively demonstrate WassDiff's ability to reproduce realistic fine-scale weather structures and accurate peak intensities. By unlocking decades of high-resolution rainfall information from globally available coarse records, WassDiff offers a practical pathway toward more accurate flood-risk assessments and climate-adaptation planning.

We investigate imbalanced regression with tabular data that have an imbalance ratio larger than 1,000 ("highly imbalanced"). Accurately estimating the target values of rare instances is important in applications such as forecasting the intensity of rare harmful Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events. For regression, the MSE loss does not consider the correlation between predicted and actual values. Typical inverse importance functions allow only convex functions. Uniform sampling might yield mini-batches that do not have rare instances. We propose CISIR that incorporates correlation, Monotonically Decreasing Involution (MDI) importance, and stratified sampling. Based on five datasets, our experimental results indicate that CISIR can achieve lower error and higher correlation than some recent methods. Also, adding our correlation component to other recent methods can improve their performance. Lastly, MDI importance can outperform other importance functions. Our code can be found in https://github.com/Machine-Earning/CISIR.

We propose a structural default model for portfolio-wide valuation adjustments (xVAs) and represent it as a system of coupled backward stochastic differential equations. The framework is divided into four layers, each capturing a key component: (i) clean values, (ii) initial margin and Collateral Valuation Adjustment (ColVA), (iii) Credit/Debit Valuation Adjustments (CVA/DVA) together with Margin Valuation Adjustment (MVA), and (iv) Funding Valuation Adjustment (FVA). Because these layers depend on one another through collateral and default effects, a naive Monte Carlo approach would require deeply nested simulations, making the problem computationally intractable. To address this challenge, we use an iterative deep BSDE approach, handling each layer sequentially so that earlier outputs serve as inputs to the subsequent layers. Initial margin is computed via deep quantile regression to reflect margin requirements over the Margin Period of Risk. We also adopt a change-of-measure method that highlights rare but significant defaults of the bank or counterparty, ensuring that these events are accurately captured in the training process. We further extend Han and Long's (2020) a posteriori error analysis to BSDEs on bounded domains. Due to the random exit from the domain, we obtain an order of convergence of O(h^{1/4-epsilon}) rather than the usual O(h^{1/2}). Numerical experiments illustrate that this method drastically reduces computational demands and successfully scales to high-dimensional, non-symmetric portfolios. The results confirm its effectiveness and accuracy, offering a practical alternative to nested Monte Carlo simulations in multi-counterparty xVA analyses.

Learning socially-aware motion representations is at the core of recent advances in multi-agent problems, such as human motion forecasting and robot navigation in crowds. Despite promising progress, existing representations learned with neural networks still struggle to generalize in closed-loop predictions (e.g., output colliding trajectories). This issue largely arises from the non-i.i.d. nature of sequential prediction in conjunction with ill-distributed training data. Intuitively, if the training data only comes from human behaviors in safe spaces, i.e., from "positive" examples, it is difficult for learning algorithms to capture the notion of "negative" examples like collisions. In this work, we aim to address this issue by explicitly modeling negative examples through self-supervision: (i) we introduce a social contrastive loss that regularizes the extracted motion representation by discerning the ground-truth positive events from synthetic negative ones; (ii) we construct informative negative samples based on our prior knowledge of rare but dangerous circumstances. Our method substantially reduces the collision rates of recent trajectory forecasting, behavioral cloning and reinforcement learning algorithms, outperforming state-of-the-art methods on several benchmarks. Our code is available at https://github.com/vita-epfl/social-nce.

In this paper, we present a novel framework for the analysis of Riemann Hypothesis [27], which is composed of three key components: a) probabilistic modeling with cross entropy optimization and reasoning; b) the application of the law of large numbers; c) the application of mathematical inductions. The analysis is mainly conducted by virtue of probabilistic modeling of cross entropy optimization and reasoning with rare event simulation techniques. The application of the law of large numbers [2, 3, 6] and the application of mathematical inductions make the analysis of Riemann Hypothesis self-contained and complete to make sure that the whole complex plane is covered as conjectured in Riemann Hypothesis. We also discuss the method of enhanced top-p sampling with large language models (LLMs) for reasoning, where next token prediction is not just based on the estimated probabilities of each possible token in the current round but also based on accumulated path probabilities among multiple top-k chain of thoughts (CoTs) paths. The probabilistic modeling of cross entropy optimization and reasoning may suit well with the analysis of Riemann Hypothesis as Riemann Zeta functions are inherently dealing with the sums of infinite components of a complex number series. We hope that our analysis in this paper could shed some light on some of the insights of Riemann Hypothesis. The framework and techniques presented in this paper, coupled with recent developments with chain of thought (CoT) or diagram of thought (DoT) reasoning in large language models (LLMs) with reinforcement learning (RL) [1, 7, 18, 21, 24, 34, 39-41], could pave the way for eventual proof of Riemann Hypothesis [27].

The dynamic nature of proteins is crucial for determining their biological functions and properties, for which Monte Carlo (MC) and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations stand as predominant tools to study such phenomena. By utilizing empirically derived force fields, MC or MD simulations explore the conformational space through numerically evolving the system via Markov chain or Newtonian mechanics. However, the high-energy barrier of the force fields can hamper the exploration of both methods by the rare event, resulting in inadequately sampled ensemble without exhaustive running. Existing learning-based approaches perform direct sampling yet heavily rely on target-specific simulation data for training, which suffers from high data acquisition cost and poor generalizability. Inspired by simulated annealing, we propose Str2Str, a novel structure-to-structure translation framework capable of zero-shot conformation sampling with roto-translation equivariant property. Our method leverages an amortized denoising score matching objective trained on general crystal structures and has no reliance on simulation data during both training and inference. Experimental results across several benchmarking protein systems demonstrate that Str2Str outperforms previous state-of-the-art generative structure prediction models and can be orders of magnitude faster compared to long MD simulations. Our open-source implementation is available at https://github.com/lujiarui/Str2Str

This paper will discuss the microphysical simulation of interactions in liquid xenon, the active detector medium in many leading rare-event searches for new physics, and describe experimental observables useful for understanding detector performance. The scintillation and ionization yield distributions for signal and background will be presented using the Noble Element Simulation Technique (NEST), which is a toolkit based on experimental data and simple, empirical formulae, which mimic previous microphysics modeling, but are guided by data. The NEST models for light and charge production as a function of the particle type, energy, and electric field will be reviewed, as well as models for energy resolution and final pulse areas. NEST will be compared to other models or sets of models, and vetted against real data, with several specific examples pulled from XENON, ZEPLIN, LUX, LZ, PandaX, and table-top experiments used for calibrations.