Daily Papers

Accurate crop yield forecasting is essential for global food security. However, current AI models systematically underperform when yields deviate from historical trends. We attribute this to the lack of rich, physically grounded datasets directly linking atmospheric states to yields. To address this, we introduce VITA (Variational Inference Transformer for Asymmetric data), a variational pretraining framework that learns representations from large satellite-based weather datasets and transfers to the ground-based limited measurements available for yield prediction. VITA is trained using detailed meteorological variables as proxy targets during pretraining and learns to predict latent atmospheric states under a seasonality-aware sinusoidal prior. This allows the model to be fine-tuned using limited weather statistics during deployment. Applied to 763 counties in the U.S. Corn Belt, VITA achieves state-of-the-art performance in predicting corn and soybean yields across all evaluation scenarios, particularly during extreme years, with statistically significant improvements (paired t-test, p < 0.0001). Importantly, VITA outperforms prior frameworks like GNN-RNN without soil data, and bigger foundational models (e.g., Chronos-Bolt) with less compute, making it practical for real-world use--especially in data-scarce regions. This work highlights how domain-aware AI design can overcome data limitations and support resilient agricultural forecasting in a changing climate.

A common problem for agents operating in real-world environments is that the response of an environment to their actions may be non-deterministic and observed through noise. This renders environmental state and progress towards completing a task latent. Despite recent impressive demonstrations of LLM's reasoning abilities on various benchmarks, whether LLMs can build estimates of latent state and leverage them for reasoning has not been explicitly studied. We investigate this problem in the real-world domain of autonomous UI agents. We establish that appropriately prompting LLMs in a zero-shot manner can be formally understood as forming point estimates of latent state in a textual space. In the context of autonomous UI agents we then show that LLMs used in this manner are more than 76% accurate at inferring various aspects of latent state, such as performed (vs. commanded) actions and task progression. Using both public and internal benchmarks and three reasoning methods (zero-shot, CoT-SC & ReAct), we show that LLM-powered agents that explicitly estimate and reason about latent state are able to successfully complete up to 1.6x more tasks than those that do not.

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events due to global climate change urges accurate weather prediction. Recently, great advances have been made by the end-to-end methods, thanks to deep learning techniques, but they face limitations of representation inconsistency in multivariable integration and struggle to effectively capture the dependency between variables, which is required in complex weather systems. Treating different variables as distinct modalities and applying a two-stage training approach from multimodal models can partially alleviate this issue, but due to the inconformity in training tasks between the two stages, the results are often suboptimal. To address these challenges, we propose an implicit two-stage training method, configuring separate encoders and decoders for each variable. In detailed, in the first stage, the Translator is frozen while the Encoders and Decoders learn a shared latent space, in the second stage, the Encoders and Decoders are frozen, and the Translator captures inter-variable interactions for prediction. Besides, by introducing a self-attention mechanism for multivariable fusion in the latent space, the performance achieves further improvements. Empirically, extensive experiments show the state-of-the-art performance of our method. Specifically, it reduces the MSE for near-surface air temperature and relative humidity predictions by 28.82\% and 23.39\%, respectively. The source code is available at https://github.com/ShremG/Met2Net.

Air quality prediction and modelling plays a pivotal role in public health and environment management, for individuals and authorities to make informed decisions. Although traditional data-driven models have shown promise in this domain, their long-term prediction accuracy can be limited, especially in scenarios with sparse or incomplete data and they often rely on black-box deep learning structures that lack solid physical foundation leading to reduced transparency and interpretability in predictions. To address these limitations, this paper presents a novel approach named Physics guided Neural Network for Air Quality Prediction (AirPhyNet). Specifically, we leverage two well-established physics principles of air particle movement (diffusion and advection) by representing them as differential equation networks. Then, we utilize a graph structure to integrate physics knowledge into a neural network architecture and exploit latent representations to capture spatio-temporal relationships within the air quality data. Experiments on two real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that AirPhyNet outperforms state-of-the-art models for different testing scenarios including different lead time (24h, 48h, 72h), sparse data and sudden change prediction, achieving reduction in prediction errors up to 10%. Moreover, a case study further validates that our model captures underlying physical processes of particle movement and generates accurate predictions with real physical meaning.

Diffusion models have been widely adopted in image generation, producing higher-quality and more diverse samples than generative adversarial networks (GANs). We introduce a latent diffusion model (LDM) for precipitation nowcasting - short-term forecasting based on the latest observational data. The LDM is more stable and requires less computation to train than GANs, albeit with more computationally expensive generation. We benchmark it against the GAN-based Deep Generative Models of Rainfall (DGMR) and a statistical model, PySTEPS. The LDM produces more accurate precipitation predictions, while the comparisons are more mixed when predicting whether the precipitation exceeds predefined thresholds. The clearest advantage of the LDM is that it generates more diverse predictions than DGMR or PySTEPS. Rank distribution tests indicate that the distribution of samples from the LDM accurately reflects the uncertainty of the predictions. Thus, LDMs are promising for any applications where uncertainty quantification is important, such as weather and climate.

Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) provide a principled and flexible approach to modeling the dynamics of a latent state, which is observed at discrete-time points via a likelihood model. However, inference in GPSSMs is computationally and statistically challenging due to the large number of latent variables in the model and the strong temporal dependencies between them. In this paper, we propose a new method for inference in Bayesian GPSSMs, which overcomes the drawbacks of previous approaches, namely over-simplified assumptions, and high computational requirements. Our method is based on free-form variational inference via stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo within the inducing-variable formalism. Furthermore, by exploiting our proposed variational distribution, we provide a collapsed extension of our method where the inducing variables are marginalized analytically. We also showcase results when combining our framework with particle MCMC methods. We show that, on six real-world datasets, our approach can learn transition dynamics and latent states more accurately than competing methods.

Knowledge about the hidden factors that determine particular system dynamics is crucial for both explaining them and pursuing goal-directed interventions. Inferring these factors from time series data without supervision remains an open challenge. Here, we focus on spatiotemporal processes, including wave propagation and weather dynamics, for which we assume that universal causes (e.g. physics) apply throughout space and time. A recently introduced DIstributed SpatioTemporal graph Artificial Neural network Architecture (DISTANA) is used and enhanced to learn such processes, requiring fewer parameters and achieving significantly more accurate predictions compared to temporal convolutional neural networks and other related approaches. We show that DISTANA, when combined with a retrospective latent state inference principle called active tuning, can reliably derive location-respective hidden causal factors. In a current weather prediction benchmark, DISTANA infers our planet's land-sea mask solely by observing temperature dynamics and, meanwhile, uses the self inferred information to improve its own future temperature predictions.

Recent JWST observations with NIRCam and MIRI of the ultra-short-period super-Earth 55 Cancri e indicate a possible volatile atmosphere surrounding the planet. Previous analysis of the NIRCam spectra suggested potential absorption features from CO2 or CO and significant sub-weekly variability. The MIRI low-resolution spectrum does not contain substantial features but was found to be consistent with effective heat redistribution models. In this work, we computed a grid of over 25000 self-consistent 1D forward models incorporating H-N-O-C-S-P-Si-Ti equilibrium chemistry and assessed plausible atmospheric compositions based on the current JWST data. Despite exhaustive analysis, the composition and properties of the atmosphere remain elusive. While our results statistically favour a global, hydrogen-free, nitrogen-dominated atmosphere enriched in PO and CO2, various alternative compositions, including H2O-,CO-, PH3-, or Si-bearing remain viable explanations. Unconstrained heat redistribution efficiency and absolute NIRCam flux are among the largest sources of uncertainty in our analysis. We also find that the heat redistribution factor and surface pressure are highly degenerate with atmospheric composition, and that these parameters cannot be independently constrained using current JWST observations. Furthermore, we show that the observed variability may arise from dynamic interactions between the atmosphere and an underlying magma ocean, driving rapid shifts in atmospheric chemistry and thermal emission. Our results highlight the importance of using self-consistent forward models when analysing novel JWST spectra with limited signal-to-noise ratios -- such as those of 55 Cancri e -- as it allows for a more comprehensive evaluation of potential atmospheric scenarios while also being less sensitive to subtle spectral differences than retrievals...

The atmosphere affects humans in a multitude of ways, from loss of life due to adverse weather effects to long-term social and economic impacts on societies. Computer simulations of atmospheric dynamics are, therefore, of great importance for the well-being of our and future generations. Here, we propose AtmoRep, a novel, task-independent stochastic computer model of atmospheric dynamics that can provide skillful results for a wide range of applications. AtmoRep uses large-scale representation learning from artificial intelligence to determine a general description of the highly complex, stochastic dynamics of the atmosphere from the best available estimate of the system's historical trajectory as constrained by observations. This is enabled by a novel self-supervised learning objective and a unique ensemble that samples from the stochastic model with a variability informed by the one in the historical record. The task-independent nature of AtmoRep enables skillful results for a diverse set of applications without specifically training for them and we demonstrate this for nowcasting, temporal interpolation, model correction, and counterfactuals. We also show that AtmoRep can be improved with additional data, for example radar observations, and that it can be extended to tasks such as downscaling. Our work establishes that large-scale neural networks can provide skillful, task-independent models of atmospheric dynamics. With this, they provide a novel means to make the large record of atmospheric observations accessible for applications and for scientific inquiry, complementing existing simulations based on first principles.

Despite the significant recent progress in deep generative models, the underlying structure of their latent spaces is still poorly understood, thereby making the task of performing semantically meaningful latent traversals an open research challenge. Most prior work has aimed to solve this challenge by modeling latent structures linearly, and finding corresponding linear directions which result in `disentangled' generations. In this work, we instead propose to model latent structures with a learned dynamic potential landscape, thereby performing latent traversals as the flow of samples down the landscape's gradient. Inspired by physics, optimal transport, and neuroscience, these potential landscapes are learned as physically realistic partial differential equations, thereby allowing them to flexibly vary over both space and time. To achieve disentanglement, multiple potentials are learned simultaneously, and are constrained by a classifier to be distinct and semantically self-consistent. Experimentally, we demonstrate that our method achieves both more qualitatively and quantitatively disentangled trajectories than state-of-the-art baselines. Further, we demonstrate that our method can be integrated as a regularization term during training, thereby acting as an inductive bias towards the learning of structured representations, ultimately improving model likelihood on similarly structured data.

We present AROMA (Attentive Reduced Order Model with Attention), a framework designed to enhance the modeling of partial differential equations (PDEs) using local neural fields. Our flexible encoder-decoder architecture can obtain smooth latent representations of spatial physical fields from a variety of data types, including irregular-grid inputs and point clouds. This versatility eliminates the need for patching and allows efficient processing of diverse geometries. The sequential nature of our latent representation can be interpreted spatially and permits the use of a conditional transformer for modeling the temporal dynamics of PDEs. By employing a diffusion-based formulation, we achieve greater stability and enable longer rollouts compared to conventional MSE training. AROMA's superior performance in simulating 1D and 2D equations underscores the efficacy of our approach in capturing complex dynamical behaviors.

Relying on the representation power of neural networks, most recent works have often neglected several factors involved in haze degradation, such as transmission (the amount of light reaching an observer from a scene over distance) and atmospheric light. These factors are generally unknown, making dehazing problems ill-posed and creating inherent uncertainties. To account for such uncertainties and factors involved in haze degradation, we introduce a variational Bayesian framework for single image dehazing. We propose to take not only a clean image and but also transmission map as latent variables, the posterior distributions of which are parameterized by corresponding neural networks: dehazing and transmission networks, respectively. Based on a physical model for haze degradation, our variational Bayesian framework leads to a new objective function that encourages the cooperation between them, facilitating the joint training of and thereby boosting the performance of each other. In our framework, a dehazing network can estimate a clean image independently of a transmission map estimation during inference, introducing no overhead. Furthermore, our model-agnostic framework can be seamlessly incorporated with other existing dehazing networks, greatly enhancing the performance consistently across datasets and models.

Deep learning models are increasingly employed for perception, prediction, and control in complex systems. Embedding physical knowledge into these models is crucial for achieving realistic and consistent outputs, a challenge often addressed by physics-informed machine learning. However, integrating physical knowledge with representation learning becomes difficult when dealing with high-dimensional observation data, such as images, particularly under conditions of incomplete or imprecise state information. To address this, we propose Physically Interpretable World Models, a novel architecture that aligns learned latent representations with real-world physical quantities. Our method combines a variational autoencoder with a dynamical model that incorporates unknown system parameters, enabling the discovery of physically meaningful representations. By employing weak supervision with interval-based constraints, our approach eliminates the reliance on ground-truth physical annotations. Experimental results demonstrate that our method improves the quality of learned representations while achieving accurate predictions of future states, advancing the field of representation learning in dynamic systems.

Structured belief states are crucial for user goal tracking and database query in task-oriented dialog systems. However, training belief trackers often requires expensive turn-level annotations of every user utterance. In this paper we aim at alleviating the reliance on belief state labels in building end-to-end dialog systems, by leveraging unlabeled dialog data towards semi-supervised learning. We propose a probabilistic dialog model, called the LAtent BElief State (LABES) model, where belief states are represented as discrete latent variables and jointly modeled with system responses given user inputs. Such latent variable modeling enables us to develop semi-supervised learning under the principled variational learning framework. Furthermore, we introduce LABES-S2S, which is a copy-augmented Seq2Seq model instantiation of LABES. In supervised experiments, LABES-S2S obtains strong results on three benchmark datasets of different scales. In utilizing unlabeled dialog data, semi-supervised LABES-S2S significantly outperforms both supervised-only and semi-supervised baselines. Remarkably, we can reduce the annotation demands to 50% without performance loss on MultiWOZ.

Characterizing the relationship between neural population activity and behavioral data is a central goal of neuroscience. While latent variable models (LVMs) are successful in describing high-dimensional time-series data, they are typically only designed for a single type of data, making it difficult to identify structure shared across different experimental data modalities. Here, we address this shortcoming by proposing an unsupervised LVM which extracts temporally evolving shared and independent latents for distinct, simultaneously recorded experimental modalities. We do this by combining Gaussian Process Factor Analysis (GPFA), an interpretable LVM for neural spiking data with temporally smooth latent space, with Gaussian Process Variational Autoencoders (GP-VAEs), which similarly use a GP prior to characterize correlations in a latent space, but admit rich expressivity due to a deep neural network mapping to observations. We achieve interpretability in our model by partitioning latent variability into components that are either shared between or independent to each modality. We parameterize the latents of our model in the Fourier domain, and show improved latent identification using this approach over standard GP-VAE methods. We validate our model on simulated multi-modal data consisting of Poisson spike counts and MNIST images that scale and rotate smoothly over time. We show that the multi-modal GP-VAE (MM-GPVAE) is able to not only identify the shared and independent latent structure across modalities accurately, but provides good reconstructions of both images and neural rates on held-out trials. Finally, we demonstrate our framework on two real world multi-modal experimental settings: Drosophila whole-brain calcium imaging alongside tracked limb positions, and Manduca sexta spike train measurements from ten wing muscles as the animal tracks a visual stimulus.

Urbanization, climate change, and agricultural stress are increasing the demand for precise and timely environmental monitoring. Land Surface Temperature (LST) is a key variable in this context and is retrieved from remote sensing satellites. However, these systems face a trade-off between spatial and temporal resolution. While spatio-temporal fusion methods offer promising solutions, few have addressed the estimation of daily LST at 10 m resolution. In this study, we present WGAST, a Weakly-Supervised Generative Network for Daily 10 m LST Estimation via Spatio-Temporal Fusion of Terra MODIS, Landsat 8, and Sentinel-2. WGAST is the first end-to-end deep learning framework designed for this task. It adopts a conditional generative adversarial architecture, with a generator composed of four stages: feature extraction, fusion, LST reconstruction, and noise suppression. The first stage employs a set of encoders to extract multi-level latent representations from the inputs, which are then fused in the second stage using cosine similarity, normalization, and temporal attention mechanisms. The third stage decodes the fused features into high-resolution LST, followed by a Gaussian filter to suppress high-frequency noise. Training follows a weakly supervised strategy based on physical averaging principles and reinforced by a PatchGAN discriminator. Experiments demonstrate that WGAST outperforms existing methods in both quantitative and qualitative evaluations. Compared to the best-performing baseline, on average, WGAST reduces RMSE by 17.18% and improves SSIM by 11.00%. Furthermore, WGAST is robust to cloud-induced LST and effectively captures fine-scale thermal patterns, as validated against 33 ground-based sensors. The code is available at https://github.com/Sofianebouaziz1/WGAST.git.

Deep models have achieved impressive progress in solving partial differential equations (PDEs). A burgeoning paradigm is learning neural operators to approximate the input-output mappings of PDEs. While previous deep models have explored the multiscale architectures and various operator designs, they are limited to learning the operators as a whole in the coordinate space. In real physical science problems, PDEs are complex coupled equations with numerical solvers relying on discretization into high-dimensional coordinate space, which cannot be precisely approximated by a single operator nor efficiently learned due to the curse of dimensionality. We present Latent Spectral Models (LSM) toward an efficient and precise solver for high-dimensional PDEs. Going beyond the coordinate space, LSM enables an attention-based hierarchical projection network to reduce the high-dimensional data into a compact latent space in linear time. Inspired by classical spectral methods in numerical analysis, we design a neural spectral block to solve PDEs in the latent space that approximates complex input-output mappings via learning multiple basis operators, enjoying nice theoretical guarantees for convergence and approximation. Experimentally, LSM achieves consistent state-of-the-art and yields a relative gain of 11.5% averaged on seven benchmarks covering both solid and fluid physics. Code is available at https://github.com/thuml/Latent-Spectral-Models.

Many political science theories relate to latent variables, but such quantities cannot be observed directly and must instead be estimated from data with inherent uncertainty. In regression models, when a variable is measured with error, its slope coefficient is known to be biased toward zero. We show how measurement error interacts with unique aspects of latent variable estimation, identification restrictions in particular, and demonstrate how common error adjustment strategies can worsen bias. We introduce a method for adjusting coefficients on latent predictors, which reduces bias and typically increases the magnitude of estimated coefficients, often dramatically. We illustrate these dynamics using several different estimation strategies for the latent predictors. Corrected estimates using our proposed method show stronger relationships -- sometimes up to 50% larger -- than those from naive regression. Our findings highlight the importance of considering measurement error in latent predictors and the inadequacy of many commonly used approaches for dealing with this issue.

Latent prediction--where agents learn by predicting their own latents--has emerged as a powerful paradigm for training general representations in machine learning. In reinforcement learning (RL), this approach has been explored to define auxiliary losses for a variety of settings, including reward-based and unsupervised RL, behavior cloning, and world modeling. While existing methods are typically limited to single-task learning, one-step prediction, or on-policy trajectory data, we show that temporal difference (TD) learning enables learning representations predictive of long-term latent dynamics across multiple policies from offline, reward-free transitions. Building on this, we introduce TD-JEPA, which leverages TD-based latent-predictive representations into unsupervised RL. TD-JEPA trains explicit state and task encoders, a policy-conditioned multi-step predictor, and a set of parameterized policies directly in latent space. This enables zero-shot optimization of any reward function at test time. Theoretically, we show that an idealized variant of TD-JEPA avoids collapse with proper initialization, and learns encoders that capture a low-rank factorization of long-term policy dynamics, while the predictor recovers their successor features in latent space. Empirically, TD-JEPA matches or outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on locomotion, navigation, and manipulation tasks across 13 datasets in ExoRL and OGBench, especially in the challenging setting of zero-shot RL from pixels.

We introduce a new family of video prediction models designed to support downstream control tasks. We call these models Video Occupancy models (VOCs). VOCs operate in a compact latent space, thus avoiding the need to make predictions about individual pixels. Unlike prior latent-space world models, VOCs directly predict the discounted distribution of future states in a single step, thus avoiding the need for multistep roll-outs. We show that both properties are beneficial when building predictive models of video for use in downstream control. Code is available at https://github.com/manantomar/video-occupancy-models{github.com/manantomar/video-occupancy-models}.

We design a physics-aware auto-encoder to specifically reduce the dimensionality of solutions arising from convection-dominated nonlinear physical systems. Although existing nonlinear manifold learning methods seem to be compelling tools to reduce the dimensionality of data characterized by a large Kolmogorov n-width, they typically lack a straightforward mapping from the latent space to the high-dimensional physical space. Moreover, the realized latent variables are often hard to interpret. Therefore, many of these methods are often dismissed in the reduced order modeling of dynamical systems governed by the partial differential equations (PDEs). Accordingly, we propose an auto-encoder type nonlinear dimensionality reduction algorithm. The unsupervised learning problem trains a diffeomorphic spatio-temporal grid, that registers the output sequence of the PDEs on a non-uniform parameter/time-varying grid, such that the Kolmogorov n-width of the mapped data on the learned grid is minimized. We demonstrate the efficacy and interpretability of our approach to separate convection/advection from diffusion/scaling on various manufactured and physical systems.

Social media platforms often foster environments where users primarily engage with content that aligns with their existing beliefs, thereby reinforcing their views and limiting exposure to opposing viewpoints. In this paper, we analyze X (formerly Twitter) discussions on climate change throughout 2019, using an unsupervised method centered on chambers--second-order information sources--to uncover ideological patterns at scale. Beyond direct connections, chambers capture shared sources of influence, revealing polarization dynamics efficiently and effectively. Analyzing retweet patterns, we identify echo chambers of climate believers and skeptics, revealing strong chamber overlap within ideological groups and minimal overlap between them, resulting in a robust bimodal structure that characterizes polarization. Our method enables us to infer the stance of high-impact users based on their audience's chamber alignment, allowing for the classification of over half the retweeting population with minimal cross-group interaction, in what we term augmented echo chamber classification. We benchmark our approach against manual labeling and a state-of-the-art latent ideology model, finding comparable performance but with nearly four times greater coverage. Moreover, we find that echo chamber structures remain stable over time, even as their members change significantly, suggesting that these structures are a persistent and emergent property of the system. Notably, polarization decreases and climate skepticism rises during the #FridaysForFuture strikes in September 2019. This chamber-based analysis offers valuable insights into the persistence and fluidity of ideological polarization on social media.

Multi-modal data-sets are ubiquitous in modern applications, and multi-modal Variational Autoencoders are a popular family of models that aim to learn a joint representation of the different modalities. However, existing approaches suffer from a coherence-quality tradeoff, where models with good generation quality lack generative coherence across modalities, and vice versa. We discuss the limitations underlying the unsatisfactory performance of existing methods, to motivate the need for a different approach. We propose a novel method that uses a set of independently trained, uni-modal, deterministic autoencoders. Individual latent variables are concatenated into a common latent space, which is fed to a masked diffusion model to enable generative modeling. We also introduce a new multi-time training method to learn the conditional score network for multi-modal diffusion. Our methodology substantially outperforms competitors in both generation quality and coherence, as shown through an extensive experimental campaign.

Most state-of-the-art approaches for weather and climate modeling are based on physics-informed numerical models of the atmosphere. These approaches aim to model the non-linear dynamics and complex interactions between multiple variables, which are challenging to approximate. Additionally, many such numerical models are computationally intensive, especially when modeling the atmospheric phenomenon at a fine-grained spatial and temporal resolution. Recent data-driven approaches based on machine learning instead aim to directly solve a downstream forecasting or projection task by learning a data-driven functional mapping using deep neural networks. However, these networks are trained using curated and homogeneous climate datasets for specific spatiotemporal tasks, and thus lack the generality of numerical models. We develop and demonstrate ClimaX, a flexible and generalizable deep learning model for weather and climate science that can be trained using heterogeneous datasets spanning different variables, spatio-temporal coverage, and physical groundings. ClimaX extends the Transformer architecture with novel encoding and aggregation blocks that allow effective use of available compute while maintaining general utility. ClimaX is pre-trained with a self-supervised learning objective on climate datasets derived from CMIP6. The pre-trained ClimaX can then be fine-tuned to address a breadth of climate and weather tasks, including those that involve atmospheric variables and spatio-temporal scales unseen during pretraining. Compared to existing data-driven baselines, we show that this generality in ClimaX results in superior performance on benchmarks for weather forecasting and climate projections, even when pretrained at lower resolutions and compute budgets.

We propose CARFF: Conditional Auto-encoded Radiance Field for 3D Scene Forecasting, a method for predicting future 3D scenes given past observations, such as 2D ego-centric images. Our method maps an image to a distribution over plausible 3D latent scene configurations using a probabilistic encoder, and predicts the evolution of the hypothesized scenes through time. Our latent scene representation conditions a global Neural Radiance Field (NeRF) to represent a 3D scene model, which enables explainable predictions and straightforward downstream applications. This approach extends beyond previous neural rendering work by considering complex scenarios of uncertainty in environmental states and dynamics. We employ a two-stage training of Pose-Conditional-VAE and NeRF to learn 3D representations. Additionally, we auto-regressively predict latent scene representations as a partially observable Markov decision process, utilizing a mixture density network. We demonstrate the utility of our method in realistic scenarios using the CARLA driving simulator, where CARFF can be used to enable efficient trajectory and contingency planning in complex multi-agent autonomous driving scenarios involving visual occlusions.

In this work, we present WeatherEdit, a novel weather editing pipeline for generating realistic weather effects with controllable types and severity in 3D scenes. Our approach is structured into two key components: weather background editing and weather particle construction. For weather background editing, we introduce an all-in-one adapter that integrates multiple weather styles into a single pretrained diffusion model, enabling the generation of diverse weather effects in 2D image backgrounds. During inference, we design a Temporal-View (TV-) attention mechanism that follows a specific order to aggregate temporal and spatial information, ensuring consistent editing across multi-frame and multi-view images. To construct the weather particles, we first reconstruct a 3D scene using the edited images and then introduce a dynamic 4D Gaussian field to generate snowflakes, raindrops and fog in the scene. The attributes and dynamics of these particles are precisely controlled through physical-based modelling and simulation, ensuring realistic weather representation and flexible severity adjustments. Finally, we integrate the 4D Gaussian field with the 3D scene to render consistent and highly realistic weather effects. Experiments on multiple driving datasets demonstrate that WeatherEdit can generate diverse weather effects with controllable condition severity, highlighting its potential for autonomous driving simulation in adverse weather. See project page: https://jumponthemoon.github.io/w-edit

State representation learning, or the ability to capture latent generative factors of an environment, is crucial for building intelligent agents that can perform a wide variety of tasks. Learning such representations without supervision from rewards is a challenging open problem. We introduce a method that learns state representations by maximizing mutual information across spatially and temporally distinct features of a neural encoder of the observations. We also introduce a new benchmark based on Atari 2600 games where we evaluate representations based on how well they capture the ground truth state variables. We believe this new framework for evaluating representation learning models will be crucial for future representation learning research. Finally, we compare our technique with other state-of-the-art generative and contrastive representation learning methods. The code associated with this work is available at https://github.com/mila-iqia/atari-representation-learning

Real-time detection and prediction of extreme weather protect human lives and infrastructure. Traditional methods rely on numerical threshold setting and manual interpretation of weather heatmaps with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), which can be slow and error-prone. Our research redefines Extreme Weather Events Detection (EWED) by framing it as a Visual Question Answering (VQA) problem, thereby introducing a more precise and automated solution. Leveraging Vision-Language Models (VLM) to simultaneously process visual and textual data, we offer an effective aid to enhance the analysis process of weather heatmaps. Our initial assessment of general-purpose VLMs (e.g., GPT-4-Vision) on EWED revealed poor performance, characterized by low accuracy and frequent hallucinations due to inadequate color differentiation and insufficient meteorological knowledge. To address these challenges, we introduce ClimateIQA, the first meteorological VQA dataset, which includes 8,760 wind gust heatmaps and 254,040 question-answer pairs covering four question types, both generated from the latest climate reanalysis data. We also propose Sparse Position and Outline Tracking (SPOT), an innovative technique that leverages OpenCV and K-Means clustering to capture and depict color contours in heatmaps, providing ClimateIQA with more accurate color spatial location information. Finally, we present Climate-Zoo, the first meteorological VLM collection, which adapts VLMs to meteorological applications using the ClimateIQA dataset. Experiment results demonstrate that models from Climate-Zoo substantially outperform state-of-the-art general VLMs, achieving an accuracy increase from 0% to over 90% in EWED verification. The datasets and models in this study are publicly available for future climate science research: https://github.com/AlexJJJChen/Climate-Zoo.

Continuous latent variables (LVs) are a key ingredient of many generative models, as they allow modelling expressive mixtures with an uncountable number of components. In contrast, probabilistic circuits (PCs) are hierarchical discrete mixtures represented as computational graphs composed of input, sum and product units. Unlike continuous LV models, PCs provide tractable inference but are limited to discrete LVs with categorical (i.e. unordered) states. We bridge these model classes by introducing probabilistic integral circuits (PICs), a new language of computational graphs that extends PCs with integral units representing continuous LVs. In the first place, PICs are symbolic computational graphs and are fully tractable in simple cases where analytical integration is possible. In practice, we parameterise PICs with light-weight neural nets delivering an intractable hierarchical continuous mixture that can be approximated arbitrarily well with large PCs using numerical quadrature. On several distribution estimation benchmarks, we show that such PIC-approximating PCs systematically outperform PCs commonly learned via expectation-maximization or SGD.

Latent Gaussian process (GP) models are widely used in neuroscience to uncover hidden state evolutions from sequential observations, mainly in neural activity recordings. While latent GP models provide a principled and powerful solution in theory, the intractable posterior in non-conjugate settings necessitates approximate inference schemes, which may lack scalability. In this work, we propose cvHM, a general inference framework for latent GP models leveraging Hida-Mat\'ern kernels and conjugate computation variational inference (CVI). With cvHM, we are able to perform variational inference of latent neural trajectories with linear time complexity for arbitrary likelihoods. The reparameterization of stationary kernels using Hida-Mat\'ern GPs helps us connect the latent variable models that encode prior assumptions through dynamical systems to those that encode trajectory assumptions through GPs. In contrast to previous work, we use bidirectional information filtering, leading to a more concise implementation. Furthermore, we employ the Whittle approximate likelihood to achieve highly efficient hyperparameter learning.

State space models (SSM) have been widely applied for the analysis and visualization of large sequential datasets. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) is a very popular particle-based method to sample latent states from intractable posteriors. However, SSM is significantly influenced by the choice of the proposal. Recently Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling has shown success in many practical problems. In this paper, we propose an SMC augmented by HMC (HSMC) for inference and model learning of nonlinear SSM, which can exempt us from learning proposals and reduce the model complexity significantly. Based on the measure preserving property of HMC, the particles directly generated by transition function can approximate the posterior of latent states arbitrarily well. In order to better adapt to the local geometry of latent space, the HMC is conducted on Riemannian manifold defined by a positive definite metric. In addition, we show that the proposed HSMC method can improve SSMs realized by both Gaussian Processes (GP) and Neural Network (NN).

Integrating physics models within machine learning models holds considerable promise toward learning robust models with improved interpretability and abilities to extrapolate. In this work, we focus on the integration of incomplete physics models into deep generative models. In particular, we introduce an architecture of variational autoencoders (VAEs) in which a part of the latent space is grounded by physics. A key technical challenge is to strike a balance between the incomplete physics and trainable components such as neural networks for ensuring that the physics part is used in a meaningful manner. To this end, we propose a regularized learning method that controls the effect of the trainable components and preserves the semantics of the physics-based latent variables as intended. We not only demonstrate generative performance improvements over a set of synthetic and real-world datasets, but we also show that we learn robust models that can consistently extrapolate beyond the training distribution in a meaningful manner. Moreover, we show that we can control the generative process in an interpretable manner.

Moist convection is a physical process where the latent heat released by condensation acts as a buoyancy source that can enhance or even trigger an overturning convective instability. Since the saturation temperature often decreases with height, condensation releases latent heat preferentially in regions of upflow. Due to this inhomogeneous heat source, moist convection may be more sensitive to changes in flow morphology, such as those induced by rotation, than dry Rayleigh-B\'enard convection. In order to study the effects of rotation on flows driven by latent heat release, we present a suite of numerical simulations that solve the Rainy-B\'enard equations (Vallis et al. 2019). We identify three morphological regimes: a cellular regime and a plume regime broadly analogous to those found in rotating Rayleigh B\'enard convection, and a novel funnel regime that lacks a clear analog within the regimes exhibited by dry convection. We measure energy fluxes through the system and report rotational scalings of the Reynolds and moist Nusselt numbers. We find that moist static energy transport, as measured by a moist Nusselt number, is significantly enhanced in the funnel regime without a corresponding enhancement in Reynolds number, indicating that this funnel regime produces structures with more favorable correlations between the temperature and vertical velocity.

Solar activity is one of the main drivers of variability in our solar system and the key source of space weather phenomena that affect Earth and near Earth space. The extensive record of high resolution extreme ultraviolet (EUV) observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) offers an unprecedented, very large dataset of solar images. In this work, we make use of this comprehensive dataset to investigate capabilities of current state-of-the-art generative models to accurately capture the data distribution behind the observed solar activity states. Starting from StyleGAN-based methods, we uncover severe deficits of this model family in handling fine-scale details of solar images when training on high resolution samples, contrary to training on natural face images. When switching to the diffusion based generative model family, we observe strong improvements of fine-scale detail generation. For the GAN family, we are able to achieve similar improvements in fine-scale generation when turning to ProjectedGANs, which uses multi-scale discriminators with a pre-trained frozen feature extractor. We conduct ablation studies to clarify mechanisms responsible for proper fine-scale handling. Using distributed training on supercomputers, we are able to train generative models for up to 1024x1024 resolution that produce high quality samples indistinguishable to human experts, as suggested by the evaluation we conduct. We make all code, models and workflows used in this study publicly available at https://github.com/SLAMPAI/generative-models-for-highres-solar-images.

Advancements in space telescopes have opened new avenues for gathering vast amounts of data on exoplanet atmosphere spectra. However, accurately extracting chemical and physical properties from these spectra poses significant challenges due to the non-linear nature of the underlying physics. This paper presents novel machine learning models developed by the AstroAI team for the Ariel Data Challenge 2023, where one of the models secured the top position among 293 competitors. Leveraging Normalizing Flows, our models predict the posterior probability distribution of atmospheric parameters under different atmospheric assumptions. Moreover, we introduce an alternative model that exhibits higher performance potential than the winning model, despite scoring lower in the challenge. These findings highlight the need to reevaluate the evaluation metric and prompt further exploration of more efficient and accurate approaches for exoplanet atmosphere spectra analysis. Finally, we present recommendations to enhance the challenge and models, providing valuable insights for future applications on real observational data. These advancements pave the way for more effective and timely analysis of exoplanet atmospheric properties, advancing our understanding of these distant worlds.

Modeling the time-dependent evolution of electron density is essential for understanding quantum mechanical behaviors of condensed matter and enabling predictive simulations in spectroscopy, photochemistry, and ultrafast science. Yet, while machine learning methods have advanced static density prediction, modeling its spatiotemporal dynamics remains largely unexplored. In this work, we introduce a generative framework that combines a 3D convolutional autoencoder with a latent diffusion model (LDM) to learn electron density trajectories from ab-initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations. Our method encodes electron densities into a compact latent space and predicts their future states by sampling from the learned conditional distribution, enabling stable long-horizon rollouts without drift or collapse. To preserve statistical fidelity, we incorporate a scaled Jensen-Shannon divergence regularization that aligns generated and reference density distributions. On AIMD trajectories of liquid lithium at 800 K, our model accurately captures both the spatial correlations and the log-normal-like statistical structure of the density. The proposed framework has the potential to accelerate the simulation of quantum dynamics and overcome key challenges faced by current spatiotemporal machine learning methods as surrogates of quantum mechanical simulators.

Latent variable models (LVMs) with discrete compositional latents are an important but challenging setting due to a combinatorially large number of possible configurations of the latents. A key tradeoff in modeling the posteriors over latents is between expressivity and tractable optimization. For algorithms based on expectation-maximization (EM), the E-step is often intractable without restrictive approximations to the posterior. We propose the use of GFlowNets, algorithms for sampling from an unnormalized density by learning a stochastic policy for sequential construction of samples, for this intractable E-step. By training GFlowNets to sample from the posterior over latents, we take advantage of their strengths as amortized variational inference algorithms for complex distributions over discrete structures. Our approach, GFlowNet-EM, enables the training of expressive LVMs with discrete compositional latents, as shown by experiments on non-context-free grammar induction and on images using discrete variational autoencoders (VAEs) without conditional independence enforced in the encoder.

Learning accurate predictive models of real-world dynamic phenomena (e.g., climate, biological) remains a challenging task. One key issue is that the data generated by both natural and artificial processes often comprise time series that are irregularly sampled and/or contain missing observations. In this work, we propose the Neural Continuous-Discrete State Space Model (NCDSSM) for continuous-time modeling of time series through discrete-time observations. NCDSSM employs auxiliary variables to disentangle recognition from dynamics, thus requiring amortized inference only for the auxiliary variables. Leveraging techniques from continuous-discrete filtering theory, we demonstrate how to perform accurate Bayesian inference for the dynamic states. We propose three flexible parameterizations of the latent dynamics and an efficient training objective that marginalizes the dynamic states during inference. Empirical results on multiple benchmark datasets across various domains show improved imputation and forecasting performance of NCDSSM over existing models.

State-space models (SSMs) offer a powerful framework for dynamical system analysis, wherein the temporal dynamics of the system are assumed to be captured through the evolution of the latent states, which govern the values of the observations. This paper provides a selective review of recent advancements in deep neural network-based approaches for SSMs, and presents a unified perspective for discrete time deep state space models and continuous time ones such as latent neural Ordinary Differential and Stochastic Differential Equations. It starts with an overview of the classical maximum likelihood based approach for learning SSMs, reviews variational autoencoder as a general learning pipeline for neural network-based approaches in the presence of latent variables, and discusses in detail representative deep learning models that fall under the SSM framework. Very recent developments, where SSMs are used as standalone architectural modules for improving efficiency in sequence modeling, are also examined. Finally, examples involving mixed frequency and irregularly-spaced time series data are presented to demonstrate the advantage of SSMs in these settings.

Transformer-based models generate hidden states that are difficult to interpret. In this work, we analyze hidden states and modify them at inference, with a focus on motion forecasting. We use linear probing to analyze whether interpretable features are embedded in hidden states. Our experiments reveal high probing accuracy, indicating latent space regularities with functionally important directions. Building on this, we use the directions between hidden states with opposing features to fit control vectors. At inference, we add our control vectors to hidden states and evaluate their impact on predictions. Remarkably, such modifications preserve the feasibility of predictions. We further refine our control vectors using sparse autoencoders (SAEs). This leads to more linear changes in predictions when scaling control vectors. Our approach enables mechanistic interpretation as well as zero-shot generalization to unseen dataset characteristics with negligible computational overhead.

Reliably reconstructing physical fields from sparse sensor data is a challenge that frequently arises in many scientific domains. In practice, the process generating the data often is not understood to sufficient accuracy. Therefore, there is a growing interest in using the deep neural network route to address the problem. This work presents a novel approach that learns a continuous representation of the physical field using implicit neural representations (INRs). Specifically, after factorizing spatiotemporal variability into spatial and temporal components using the separation of variables technique, the method learns relevant basis functions from sparsely sampled irregular data points to develop a continuous representation of the data. In experimental evaluations, the proposed model outperforms recent INR methods, offering superior reconstruction quality on simulation data from a state-of-the-art climate model and a second dataset that comprises ultra-high resolution satellite-based sea surface temperature fields.

We present a parsimonious deep learning weather prediction model to forecast seven atmospheric variables with 3-h time resolution for up to one-year lead times on a 110-km global mesh using the Hierarchical Equal Area isoLatitude Pixelization (HEALPix). In comparison to state-of-the-art (SOTA) machine learning (ML) weather forecast models, such as Pangu-Weather and GraphCast, our DLWP-HPX model uses coarser resolution and far fewer prognostic variables. Yet, at one-week lead times, its skill is only about one day behind both SOTA ML forecast models and the SOTA numerical weather prediction model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. We report several improvements in model design, including switching from the cubed sphere to the HEALPix mesh, inverting the channel depth of the U-Net, and introducing gated recurrent units (GRU) on each level of the U-Net hierarchy. The consistent east-west orientation of all cells on the HEALPix mesh facilitates the development of location-invariant convolution kernels that successfully propagate weather patterns across the globe without requiring separate kernels for the polar and equatorial faces of the cube sphere. Without any loss of spectral power after the first two days, the model can be unrolled autoregressively for hundreds of steps into the future to generate realistic states of the atmosphere that respect seasonal trends, as showcased in one-year simulations.

Accurate probabilistic weather forecasting demands both high accuracy and efficient uncertainty quantification, challenges that overburden both ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) and recent machine-learning methods. We introduce LaDCast, the first global latent-diffusion framework for medium-range ensemble forecasting, which generates hourly ensemble forecasts entirely in a learned latent space. An autoencoder compresses high-dimensional ERA5 reanalysis fields into a compact representation, and a transformer-based diffusion model produces sequential latent updates with arbitrary hour initialization. The model incorporates Geometric Rotary Position Embedding (GeoRoPE) to account for the Earth's spherical geometry, a dual-stream attention mechanism for efficient conditioning, and sinusoidal temporal embeddings to capture seasonal patterns. LaDCast achieves deterministic and probabilistic skill close to that of the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecast IFS-ENS, without any explicit perturbations. Notably, LaDCast demonstrates superior performance in tracking rare extreme events such as cyclones, capturing their trajectories more accurately than established models. By operating in latent space, LaDCast reduces storage and compute by orders of magnitude, demonstrating a practical path toward forecasting at kilometer-scale resolution in real time. We open-source our code and models and provide the training and evaluation pipelines at: https://github.com/tonyzyl/ladcast.

Sea ice is governed by highly complex, scale-invariant, and anisotropic processes that are challenging to represent in Earth system models. While advanced numerical models have improved our understanding of the sea-ice dynamics, their computational costs often limit their application in ensemble forecasting and climate simulations. Here, we introduce GenSIM, the first generative AI-based pan-Arctic model that predicts the evolution of all relevant key properties, including concentration, thickness, and drift, in a 12-hour window with improved accuracy over deterministic predictions and high computational efficiency, while remaining physically consistent. Trained on a long simulation from a state-of-the-art sea-ice--ocean system, GenSIM robustly reproduces statistics as observed in numerical models and observations, exhibiting brittle-like short-term dynamics while also depicting the long-term sea-ice decline. Driven solely by atmospheric forcings, we attribute GenSIM's emergent extrapolation capabilities to patterns that reflect the long-term impact of the ocean: it seemingly has learned an internal ocean emulator. This ability to infer slowly evolving climate-relevant dynamics from short-term predictions underlines the large potential of generative models to generalise for unseen climates and to encode hidden physics.

We present the GAIA (Geospatial Artificial Intelligence for Atmospheres) Foundation Model, a novel model that combines masked autoencoders (MAE) and self-DIstillation with NO labels (DINO) for analyzing global atmospheric patterns in satellite imagery. By integrating these complementary self-supervised learning approaches, our model simultaneously captures both local features and global dependencies. We address two critical challenges in satellite data analysis: reconstructing missing regions and estimating precipitation patterns as our first downstream tasks. The model demonstrates superior temporal pattern capture compared to standard MAE approaches, while maintaining robust performance in downstream tasks. Our experimental results show strong gap-filling capabilities across varying mask ratios and accurate precipitation estimation with limited training data, achieving a false alarm ratio of 0.088 and structural similarity of 0.881. This work represents an advancement in self-supervised learning for atmospheric science, providing a foundation for improved weather monitoring and climate analysis. The trained model weights and accompanying code are publicly available as open-source on Hugging Face here: https://huggingface.co/bcg-usra-nasa-gaia/GAIA-v1.

Studying low-likelihood high-impact extreme weather events in a warming world is a significant and challenging task for current ensemble forecasting systems. While these systems presently use up to 100 members, larger ensembles could enrich the sampling of internal variability. They may capture the long tails associated with climate hazards better than traditional ensemble sizes. Due to computational constraints, it is infeasible to generate huge ensembles (comprised of 1,000-10,000 members) with traditional, physics-based numerical models. In this two-part paper, we replace traditional numerical simulations with machine learning (ML) to generate hindcasts of huge ensembles. In Part I, we construct an ensemble weather forecasting system based on Spherical Fourier Neural Operators (SFNO), and we discuss important design decisions for constructing such an ensemble. The ensemble represents model uncertainty through perturbed-parameter techniques, and it represents initial condition uncertainty through bred vectors, which sample the fastest growing modes of the forecast. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) as a baseline, we develop an evaluation pipeline composed of mean, spectral, and extreme diagnostics. Using large-scale, distributed SFNOs with 1.1 billion learned parameters, we achieve calibrated probabilistic forecasts. As the trajectories of the individual members diverge, the ML ensemble mean spectra degrade with lead time, consistent with physical expectations. However, the individual ensemble members' spectra stay constant with lead time. Therefore, these members simulate realistic weather states, and the ML ensemble thus passes a crucial spectral test in the literature. The IFS and ML ensembles have similar Extreme Forecast Indices, and we show that the ML extreme weather forecasts are reliable and discriminating.

Climate decision making is constrained by the complexity and inaccessibility of key information within lengthy, technical, and multi-lingual documents. Generative AI technologies offer a promising route for improving the accessibility of information contained within these documents, but suffer from limitations. These include (1) a tendency to hallucinate or mis-represent information, (2) difficulty in steering or guaranteeing properties of generated output, and (3) reduced performance in specific technical domains. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel evaluation framework with domain-specific dimensions tailored for climate-related documents. We then apply this framework to evaluate Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) approaches and assess retrieval- and generation-quality within a prototype tool that answers questions about individual climate law and policy documents. In addition, we publish a human-annotated dataset and scalable automated evaluation tools, with the aim of facilitating broader adoption and robust assessment of these systems in the climate domain. Our findings highlight the key components of responsible deployment of RAG to enhance decision-making, while also providing insights into user experience (UX) considerations for safely deploying such systems to build trust with users in high-risk domains.

Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS's individually, and do not leverage the dynamic distributions underlying the MTS's, leading to sub-optimal results when the sparsity is high. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative model, which tracks the transition of latent clusters, instead of isolated feature representations, to achieve robust modeling. It is characterized by a newly designed dynamic Gaussian mixture distribution, which captures the dynamics of clustering structures, and is used for emitting timeseries. The generative model is parameterized by neural networks. A structured inference network is also designed for enabling inductive analysis. A gating mechanism is further introduced to dynamically tune the Gaussian mixture distributions. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real-life datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Neural Radiance Fields (NeRFs) have revolutionized the reconstruction of static scenes and objects in 3D, offering unprecedented quality. However, extending NeRFs to model dynamic objects or object articulations remains a challenging problem. Previous works have tackled this issue by focusing on part-level reconstruction and motion estimation for objects, but they often rely on heuristics regarding the number of moving parts or object categories, which can limit their practical use. In this work, we introduce LEIA, a novel approach for representing dynamic 3D objects. Our method involves observing the object at distinct time steps or "states" and conditioning a hypernetwork on the current state, using this to parameterize our NeRF. This approach allows us to learn a view-invariant latent representation for each state. We further demonstrate that by interpolating between these states, we can generate novel articulation configurations in 3D space that were previously unseen. Our experimental results highlight the effectiveness of our method in articulating objects in a manner that is independent of the viewing angle and joint configuration. Notably, our approach outperforms previous methods that rely on motion information for articulation registration.

In image generation, Multiple Latent Variable Generative Models (MLVGMs) employ multiple latent variables to gradually shape the final images, from global characteristics to finer and local details (e.g., StyleGAN, NVAE), emerging as powerful tools for diverse applications. Yet their generative dynamics remain only empirically observed, without a systematic understanding of each latent variable's impact. In this work, we propose a novel framework that quantifies the contribution of each latent variable using Mutual Information (MI) as a metric. Our analysis reveals that current MLVGMs often underutilize some latent variables, and provides actionable insights for their use in downstream applications. With this foundation, we introduce a method for generating synthetic data for Self-Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning (SSCRL). By leveraging the hierarchical and disentangled variables of MLVGMs, our approach produces diverse and semantically meaningful views without the need for real image data. Additionally, we introduce a Continuous Sampling (CS) strategy, where the generator dynamically creates new samples during SSCRL training, greatly increasing data variability. Our comprehensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of these contributions, showing that MLVGMs' generated views compete on par with or even surpass views generated from real data. This work establishes a principled approach to understanding and exploiting MLVGMs, advancing both generative modeling and self-supervised learning. Code and pre-trained models at: https://github.com/SerezD/mi_ml_gen.

While the influence of galaxy clusters on galaxy evolution is relatively well-understood, the impact of the dynamical states of these clusters is less clear. This paper series explores how the dynamical state of galaxy clusters affects their galaxy populations' physical and morphological properties. The primary aim of this first paper is to evaluate the dynamical state of 87 massive (M_{500} geq 1.5 times 10^{14} M_{odot}) galaxy clusters at low redshifts (0.10 leq z leq 0.35). This will allow us to have a well-characterized sample for analyzing physical and morphological properties in our next work. We employ six dynamical state proxies utilizing optical and X-ray imaging data. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is applied to integrate these proxies effectively, allowing for robust classification of galaxy clusters into relaxed, intermediate, and disturbed states based on their dynamical characteristics. The methodology successfully segregates the galaxy clusters into the three dynamical states. Examination of the galaxy distributions in optical wavelengths and gas distributions in X-ray further confirms the consistency of these classifications. The clusters' dynamical states are statistically distinguishable, providing a clear categorization for further analysis.

Context. Understanding how the shape of cloud particle size distributions affects the atmospheric properties of sub-stellar atmospheres is a key area to explore, particularly in the JWST era of broad wavelength coverage, where observations are sensitive to particle size distributions. It is therefore important to elucidate how underlying cloud microphysical processes influence the size distribution, in order to better understand how clouds affect observed atmospheric properties. Aims. In this follow-up paper, we aim to extend our sub-stellar atmosphere microphysical cloud formation framework from Paper I to include effects of assuming a polydisperse gamma particle size distribution, requiring a three-moment solution set of equations. Methods. We develop a three-moment framework for sub-stellar mineral cloud particle microphysical nucleation, condensation, evaporation and collisional growth assuming a gamma distribution. As in the previous paper, we demonstrate the effects of polydispersity using a simple one-dimensional Y-dwarf KCl cloud formation scenario, and compare the results with the monodisperse case. Results. Our three-moment scheme provides a generalised framework applicable to any size distribution with a defined moment generation expression. In our test case, we show that the gamma distribution evolves with altitude, initially broad at the cloud base and narrowing at lower pressures. We find that differences between the gamma and monodisperse cloud structures can be significant, depending on the surface gravity of the atmosphere. Conclusions. We present a self-consistent framework for including the effects of polydispersity for sub-stellar microphysical cloud studies using the moment method.

Multimodal generative models require a unified approach to handle both discrete data (e.g., text and code) and continuous data (e.g., image, audio, video). In this work, we propose Latent Language Modeling (LatentLM), which seamlessly integrates continuous and discrete data using causal Transformers. Specifically, we employ a variational autoencoder (VAE) to represent continuous data as latent vectors and introduce next-token diffusion for autoregressive generation of these vectors. Additionally, we develop sigma-VAE to address the challenges of variance collapse, which is crucial for autoregressive modeling. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of LatentLM across various modalities. In image generation, LatentLM surpasses Diffusion Transformers in both performance and scalability. When integrated into multimodal large language models, LatentLM provides a general-purpose interface that unifies multimodal generation and understanding. Experimental results show that LatentLM achieves favorable performance compared to Transfusion and vector quantized models in the setting of scaling up training tokens. In text-to-speech synthesis, LatentLM outperforms the state-of-the-art VALL-E 2 model in speaker similarity and robustness, while requiring 10x fewer decoding steps. The results establish LatentLM as a highly effective and scalable approach to advance large multimodal models.

We propose a new representation for encoding 3D shapes as neural fields. The representation is designed to be compatible with the transformer architecture and to benefit both shape reconstruction and shape generation. Existing works on neural fields are grid-based representations with latents defined on a regular grid. In contrast, we define latents on irregular grids, enabling our representation to be sparse and adaptive. In the context of shape reconstruction from point clouds, our shape representation built on irregular grids improves upon grid-based methods in terms of reconstruction accuracy. For shape generation, our representation promotes high-quality shape generation using auto-regressive probabilistic models. We show different applications that improve over the current state of the art. First, we show results for probabilistic shape reconstruction from a single higher resolution image. Second, we train a probabilistic model conditioned on very low resolution images. Third, we apply our model to category-conditioned generation. All probabilistic experiments confirm that we are able to generate detailed and high quality shapes to yield the new state of the art in generative 3D shape modeling.

We present LatentCSI, a novel method for generating images of the physical environment from WiFi CSI measurements that leverages a pretrained latent diffusion model (LDM). Unlike prior approaches that rely on complex and computationally intensive techniques such as GANs, our method employs a lightweight neural network to map CSI amplitudes directly into the latent space of an LDM. We then apply the LDM's denoising diffusion model to the latent representation with text-based guidance before decoding using the LDM's pretrained decoder to obtain a high-resolution image. This design bypasses the challenges of pixel-space image generation and avoids the explicit image encoding stage typically required in conventional image-to-image pipelines, enabling efficient and high-quality image synthesis. We validate our approach on two datasets: a wide-band CSI dataset we collected with off-the-shelf WiFi devices and cameras; and a subset of the publicly available MM-Fi dataset. The results demonstrate that LatentCSI outperforms baselines of comparable complexity trained directly on ground-truth images in both computational efficiency and perceptual quality, while additionally providing practical advantages through its unique capacity for text-guided controllability.

Identifying low-dimensional latent structures within high-dimensional data has long been a central topic in the machine learning community, driven by the need for data compression, storage, transmission, and deeper data understanding. Traditional methods, such as principal component analysis (PCA) and autoencoders (AE), operate in an unsupervised manner, ignoring label information even when it is available. In this work, we introduce a unified method capable of learning latent spaces in both unsupervised and supervised settings. We formulate the problem as a nonlinear multiple-response regression within an index model context. By applying the generalized Stein's lemma, the latent space can be estimated without knowing the nonlinear link functions. Our method can be viewed as a nonlinear generalization of PCA. Moreover, unlike AE and other neural network methods that operate as "black boxes", our approach not only offers better interpretability but also reduces computational complexity while providing strong theoretical guarantees. Comprehensive numerical experiments and real data analyses demonstrate the superior performance of our method.

Integrating and processing information from various sources or modalities are critical for obtaining a comprehensive and accurate perception of the real world in autonomous systems and cyber-physical systems. Drawing inspiration from neuroscience, we develop the Information-Theoretic Hierarchical Perception (ITHP) model, which utilizes the concept of information bottleneck. Different from most traditional fusion models that incorporate all modalities identically in neural networks, our model designates a prime modality and regards the remaining modalities as detectors in the information pathway, serving to distill the flow of information. Our proposed perception model focuses on constructing an effective and compact information flow by achieving a balance between the minimization of mutual information between the latent state and the input modal state, and the maximization of mutual information between the latent states and the remaining modal states. This approach leads to compact latent state representations that retain relevant information while minimizing redundancy, thereby substantially enhancing the performance of multimodal representation learning. Experimental evaluations on the MUStARD, CMU-MOSI, and CMU-MOSEI datasets demonstrate that our model consistently distills crucial information in multimodal learning scenarios, outperforming state-of-the-art benchmarks. Remarkably, on the CMU-MOSI dataset, ITHP surpasses human-level performance in the multimodal sentiment binary classification task across all evaluation metrics (i.e., Binary Accuracy, F1 Score, Mean Absolute Error, and Pearson Correlation).

Latent variable generative models have emerged as powerful tools for generative tasks including image and video synthesis. These models are enabled by pretrained autoencoders that map high resolution data into a compressed lower dimensional latent space, where the generative models can subsequently be developed while requiring fewer computational resources. Despite their effectiveness, the direct application of latent variable models to higher dimensional domains such as videos continues to pose challenges for efficient training and inference. In this paper, we propose an autoencoder that projects volumetric data onto a four-plane factorized latent space that grows sublinearly with the input size, making it ideal for higher dimensional data like videos. The design of our factorized model supports straightforward adoption in a number of conditional generation tasks with latent diffusion models (LDMs), such as class-conditional generation, frame prediction, and video interpolation. Our results show that the proposed four-plane latent space retains a rich representation needed for high-fidelity reconstructions despite the heavy compression, while simultaneously enabling LDMs to operate with significant improvements in speed and memory.

Air pollution constitutes a global problem of paramount importance that affects not only human health, but also the environment. The existence of spatial and temporal data regarding the concentrations of pollutants is crucial for performing air pollution studies and monitor emissions. However, although observation data presents great temporal coverage, the number of stations is very limited and they are usually built in more populated areas. The main objective of this work is to create models capable of inferring pollutant concentrations in locations where no observation data exists. A machine learning model, more specifically the random forest model, was developed for predicting concentrations in the Iberian Peninsula in 2019 for five selected pollutants: NO_2, O_3 SO_2, PM10, and PM2.5. Model features include satellite measurements, meteorological variables, land use classification, temporal variables (month, day of year), and spatial variables (latitude, longitude, altitude). The models were evaluated using various methods, including station 10-fold cross-validation, in which in each fold observations from 10\% of the stations are used as testing data and the rest as training data. The R^2, RMSE and mean bias were determined for each model. The NO_2 and O_3 models presented good values of R^2, 0.5524 and 0.7462, respectively. However, the SO_2, PM10, and PM2.5 models performed very poorly in this regard, with R^2 values of -0.0231, 0.3722, and 0.3303, respectively. All models slightly overestimated the ground concentrations, except the O_3 model. All models presented acceptable cross-validation RMSE, except the O_3 and PM10 models where the mean value was a little higher (12.5934 mu g/m^3 and 10.4737 mu g/m^3, respectively).

Evaluating the accuracy of outputs generated by Large Language Models (LLMs) is especially important in the climate science and policy domain. We introduce the Expert Confidence in Climate Statements (ClimateX) dataset, a novel, curated, expert-labeled dataset consisting of 8094 climate statements collected from the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, labeled with their associated confidence levels. Using this dataset, we show that recent LLMs can classify human expert confidence in climate-related statements, especially in a few-shot learning setting, but with limited (up to 47%) accuracy. Overall, models exhibit consistent and significant over-confidence on low and medium confidence statements. We highlight implications of our results for climate communication, LLMs evaluation strategies, and the use of LLMs in information retrieval systems.

Physics-based numerical models have been the bedrock of atmospheric sciences for decades, offering robust solutions but often at the cost of significant computational resources. Deep learning (DL) models have emerged as powerful tools in meteorology, capable of analyzing complex weather and climate data by learning intricate dependencies and providing rapid predictions once trained. While these models demonstrate promising performance in weather prediction, often surpassing traditional physics-based methods, they still face critical challenges. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of recent deep learning and foundation models for weather prediction. We propose a taxonomy to classify existing models based on their training paradigms: deterministic predictive learning, probabilistic generative learning, and pre-training and fine-tuning. For each paradigm, we delve into the underlying model architectures, address major challenges, offer key insights, and propose targeted directions for future research. Furthermore, we explore real-world applications of these methods and provide a curated summary of open-source code repositories and widely used datasets, aiming to bridge research advancements with practical implementations while fostering open and trustworthy scientific practices in adopting cutting-edge artificial intelligence for weather prediction. The related sources are available at https://github.com/JimengShi/ DL-Foundation-Models-Weather.

Global climate models (GCMs) are the main tools for understanding and predicting climate change. However, due to limited numerical resolutions, these models suffer from major structural uncertainties; e.g., they cannot resolve critical processes such as small-scale eddies in atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. Thus, such small-scale processes have to be represented as a function of the resolved scales via closures (parametrization). The accuracy of these closures is particularly important for capturing climate extremes. Traditionally, such closures are based on heuristics and simplifying assumptions about the unresolved physics. Recently, supervised-learned closures, trained offline on high-fidelity data, have been shown to outperform the classical physics-based closures. However, this approach requires a significant amount of high-fidelity training data and can also lead to instabilities. Reinforcement learning is emerging as a potent alternative for developing such closures as it requires only low-order statistics and leads to stable closures. In Scientific Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (SMARL) computational elements serve a dual role of discretization points and learning agents. We leverage SMARL and fundamentals of turbulence physics to learn closures for prototypes of atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. The policy is trained using only the enstrophy spectrum, which is nearly invariant and can be estimated from a few high-fidelity samples (these few samples are far from enough for supervised/offline learning). We show that these closures lead to stable low-resolution simulations that, at a fraction of the cost, can reproduce the high-fidelity simulations' statistics, including the tails of the probability density functions. The results demonstrate the high potential of SMARL for closure modeling for GCMs, especially in the regime of scarce data and indirect observations.

The autoregressive world model exhibits robust generalization capabilities in vectorized scene understanding but encounters difficulties in deriving actions due to insufficient uncertainty modeling and self-delusion. In this paper, we explore the feasibility of deriving decisions from an autoregressive world model by addressing these challenges through the formulation of multiple probabilistic hypotheses. We propose LatentDriver, a framework models the environment's next states and the ego vehicle's possible actions as a mixture distribution, from which a deterministic control signal is then derived. By incorporating mixture modeling, the stochastic nature of decisionmaking is captured. Additionally, the self-delusion problem is mitigated by providing intermediate actions sampled from a distribution to the world model. Experimental results on the recently released close-loop benchmark Waymax demonstrate that LatentDriver surpasses state-of-the-art reinforcement learning and imitation learning methods, achieving expert-level performance. The code and models will be made available at https://github.com/Sephirex-X/LatentDriver.

We learn a latent space for easy capture, consistent interpolation, and efficient reproduction of visual material appearance. When users provide a photo of a stationary natural material captured under flashlight illumination, first it is converted into a latent material code. Then, in the second step, conditioned on the material code, our method produces an infinite and diverse spatial field of BRDF model parameters (diffuse albedo, normals, roughness, specular albedo) that subsequently allows rendering in complex scenes and illuminations, matching the appearance of the input photograph. Technically, we jointly embed all flash images into a latent space using a convolutional encoder, and -- conditioned on these latent codes -- convert random spatial fields into fields of BRDF parameters using a convolutional neural network (CNN). We condition these BRDF parameters to match the visual characteristics (statistics and spectra of visual features) of the input under matching light. A user study compares our approach favorably to previous work, even those with access to BRDF supervision.

Recently, unsupervised representation learning (URL) has improved the sample efficiency of Reinforcement Learning (RL) by pretraining a model from a large unlabeled dataset. The underlying principle of these methods is to learn temporally predictive representations by predicting future states in the latent space. However, an important challenge of this approach is the representational collapse, where the subspace of the latent representations collapses into a low-dimensional manifold. To address this issue, we propose a novel URL framework that causally predicts future states while increasing the dimension of the latent manifold by decorrelating the features in the latent space. Through extensive empirical studies, we demonstrate that our framework effectively learns predictive representations without collapse, which significantly improves the sample efficiency of state-of-the-art URL methods on the Atari 100k benchmark. The code is available at https://github.com/dojeon-ai/SimTPR.

Clouds play a significant role in global temperature regulation through their effect on planetary albedo. Anthropogenic emissions of aerosols can alter the albedo of clouds, but the extent of this effect, and its consequent impact on temperature change, remains uncertain. Human-induced clouds caused by ship aerosol emissions, commonly referred to as ship tracks, provide visible manifestations of this effect distinct from adjacent cloud regions and therefore serve as a useful sandbox to study human-induced clouds. However, the lack of large-scale ship track data makes it difficult to deduce their general effects on cloud formation. Towards developing automated approaches to localize ship tracks at scale, we present CloudTracks, a dataset containing 3,560 satellite images labeled with more than 12,000 ship track instance annotations. We train semantic segmentation and instance segmentation model baselines on our dataset and find that our best model substantially outperforms previous state-of-the-art for ship track localization (61.29 vs. 48.65 IoU). We also find that the best instance segmentation model is able to identify the number of ship tracks in each image more accurately than the previous state-of-the-art (1.64 vs. 4.99 MAE). However, we identify cases where the best model struggles to accurately localize and count ship tracks, so we believe CloudTracks will stimulate novel machine learning approaches to better detect elongated and overlapping features in satellite images. We release our dataset openly at {zenodo.org/records/10042922}.

Deep generative models are routinely used in generating samples from complex, high-dimensional distributions. Despite their apparent successes, their statistical properties are not well understood. A common assumption is that with enough training data and sufficiently large neural networks, deep generative model samples will have arbitrarily small errors in sampling from any continuous target distribution. We set up a unifying framework that debunks this belief. We demonstrate that broad classes of deep generative models, including variational autoencoders and generative adversarial networks, are not universal generators. Under the predominant case of Gaussian latent variables, these models can only generate concentrated samples that exhibit light tails. Using tools from concentration of measure and convex geometry, we give analogous results for more general log-concave and strongly log-concave latent variable distributions. We extend our results to diffusion models via a reduction argument. We use the Gromov--Levy inequality to give similar guarantees when the latent variables lie on manifolds with positive Ricci curvature. These results shed light on the limited capacity of common deep generative models to handle heavy tails. We illustrate the empirical relevance of our work with simulations and financial data.

A new prior is proposed for learning representations of high-level concepts of the kind we manipulate with language. This prior can be combined with other priors in order to help disentangling abstract factors from each other. It is inspired by cognitive neuroscience theories of consciousness, seen as a bottleneck through which just a few elements, after having been selected by attention from a broader pool, are then broadcast and condition further processing, both in perception and decision-making. The set of recently selected elements one becomes aware of is seen as forming a low-dimensional conscious state. This conscious state is combining the few concepts constituting a conscious thought, i.e., what one is immediately conscious of at a particular moment. We claim that this architectural and information-processing constraint corresponds to assumptions about the joint distribution between high-level concepts. To the extent that these assumptions are generally true (and the form of natural language seems consistent with them), they can form a useful prior for representation learning. A low-dimensional thought or conscious state is analogous to a sentence: it involves only a few variables and yet can make a statement with very high probability of being true. This is consistent with a joint distribution (over high-level concepts) which has the form of a sparse factor graph, i.e., where the dependencies captured by each factor of the factor graph involve only very few variables while creating a strong dip in the overall energy function. The consciousness prior also makes it natural to map conscious states to natural language utterances or to express classical AI knowledge in a form similar to facts and rules, albeit capturing uncertainty as well as efficient search mechanisms implemented by attention mechanisms.

We introduce GraphDOP, a new data-driven, end-to-end forecast system developed at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) that is trained and initialised exclusively from Earth System observations, with no physics-based (re)analysis inputs or feedbacks. GraphDOP learns the correlations between observed quantities - such as brightness temperatures from polar orbiters and geostationary satellites - and geophysical quantities of interest (that are measured by conventional observations), to form a coherent latent representation of Earth System state dynamics and physical processes, and is capable of producing skilful predictions of relevant weather parameters up to five days into the future.

We describe nonparametric deconvolution models (NDMs), a family of Bayesian nonparametric models for collections of data in which each observation is the average over the features from heterogeneous particles. For example, these types of data are found in elections, where we observe precinct-level vote tallies (observations) of individual citizens' votes (particles) across each of the candidates or ballot measures (features), where each voter is part of a specific voter cohort or demographic (factor). Like the hierarchical Dirichlet process, NDMs rely on two tiers of Dirichlet processes to explain the data with an unknown number of latent factors; each observation is modeled as a weighted average of these latent factors. Unlike existing models, NDMs recover how factor distributions vary locally for each observation. This uniquely allows NDMs both to deconvolve each observation into its constituent factors, and also to describe how the factor distributions specific to each observation vary across observations and deviate from the corresponding global factors. We present variational inference techniques for this family of models and study its performance on simulated data and voting data from California. We show that including local factors improves estimates of global factors and provides a novel scaffold for exploring data.

Currently, high-dimensional data is ubiquitous in data science, which necessitates the development of techniques to decompose and interpret such multidimensional (aka tensor) datasets. Finding a low dimensional representation of the data, that is, its inherent structure, is one of the approaches that can serve to understand the dynamics of low dimensional latent features hidden in the data. Nonnegative RESCAL is one such technique, particularly well suited to analyze self-relational data, such as dynamic networks found in international trade flows. Nonnegative RESCAL computes a low dimensional tensor representation by finding the latent space containing multiple modalities. Estimating the dimensionality of this latent space is crucial for extracting meaningful latent features. Here, to determine the dimensionality of the latent space with nonnegative RESCAL, we propose a latent dimension determination method which is based on clustering of the solutions of multiple realizations of nonnegative RESCAL decompositions. We demonstrate the performance of our model selection method on synthetic data and then we apply our method to decompose a network of international trade flows data from International Monetary Fund and validate the resulting features against empirical facts from economic literature.

Natural language has long enabled human cooperation, but its lossy, ambiguous, and indirect nature limits the potential of collective intelligence. While machines are not subject to these constraints, most LLM-based multi-agent systems still rely solely on natural language, exchanging tokens or their embeddings. To go beyond language, we introduce a new paradigm, thought communication, which enables agents to interact directly mind-to-mind, akin to telepathy. To uncover these latent thoughts in a principled way, we formalize the process as a general latent variable model, where agent states are generated by an unknown function of underlying thoughts. We prove that, in a nonparametric setting without auxiliary information, both shared and private latent thoughts between any pair of agents can be identified. Moreover, the global structure of thought sharing, including which agents share which thoughts and how these relationships are structured, can also be recovered with theoretical guarantees. Guided by the established theory, we develop a framework that extracts latent thoughts from all agents prior to communication and assigns each agent the relevant thoughts, along with their sharing patterns. This paradigm naturally extends beyond LLMs to all modalities, as most observational data arise from hidden generative processes. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world benchmarks validate the theory and demonstrate the collaborative advantages of thought communication. We hope this work illuminates the potential of leveraging the hidden world, as many challenges remain unsolvable through surface-level observation alone, regardless of compute or data scale.

Jointly identifying a mixture of discrete and continuous factors of variability without supervision is a key problem in unraveling complex phenomena. Variational inference has emerged as a promising method to learn interpretable mixture representations. However, posterior approximation in high-dimensional latent spaces, particularly for discrete factors remains challenging. Here, we propose an unsupervised variational framework using multiple interacting networks called cpl-mixVAE that scales well to high-dimensional discrete settings. In this framework, the mixture representation of each network is regularized by imposing a consensus constraint on the discrete factor. We justify the use of this framework by providing both theoretical and experimental results. Finally, we use the proposed method to jointly uncover discrete and continuous factors of variability describing gene expression in a single-cell transcriptomic dataset profiling more than a hundred cortical neuron types.

We incorporate discrete and continuous time Markov processes as building blocks into probabilistic graphical models with latent and observed variables. We introduce the automatic Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (BFFG) paradigm (Mider et al., 2021) for programmable inference on latent states and model parameters. Our starting point is a generative model, a forward description of the probabilistic process dynamics. We backpropagate the information provided by observations through the model to transform the generative (forward) model into a pre-conditional model guided by the data. It approximates the actual conditional model with known likelihood-ratio between the two. The backward filter and the forward change of measure are suitable to be incorporated into a probabilistic programming context because they can be formulated as a set of transformation rules. The guided generative model can be incorporated in different approaches to efficiently sample latent states and parameters conditional on observations. We show applicability in a variety of settings, including Markov chains with discrete state space, interacting particle systems, state space models, branching diffusions and Gamma processes.

Methods based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used to build generative models of time-series. In addition to high computational overhead due to explicitly computing hidden states recurrence, existing ODE-based models fall short in learning sequence data with sharp transitions - common in many real-world systems - due to numerical challenges during optimization. In this work, we propose LS4, a generative model for sequences with latent variables evolving according to a state space ODE to increase modeling capacity. Inspired by recent deep state space models (S4), we achieve speedups by leveraging a convolutional representation of LS4 which bypasses the explicit evaluation of hidden states. We show that LS4 significantly outperforms previous continuous-time generative models in terms of marginal distribution, classification, and prediction scores on real-world datasets in the Monash Forecasting Repository, and is capable of modeling highly stochastic data with sharp temporal transitions. LS4 sets state-of-the-art for continuous-time latent generative models, with significant improvement of mean squared error and tighter variational lower bounds on irregularly-sampled datasets, while also being x100 faster than other baselines on long sequences.

With climate change-related extreme events on the rise, high dimensional Earth observation data presents a unique opportunity for forecasting and understanding impacts on ecosystems. This is, however, impeded by the complexity of processing, visualizing, modeling, and explaining this data. To showcase how this challenge can be met, here we train a convolutional long short-term memory-based architecture on the novel DeepExtremeCubes dataset. DeepExtremeCubes includes around 40,000 long-term Sentinel-2 minicubes (January 2016-October 2022) worldwide, along with labeled extreme events, meteorological data, vegetation land cover, and topography map, sampled from locations affected by extreme climate events and surrounding areas. When predicting future reflectances and vegetation impacts through kernel normalized difference vegetation index, the model achieved an R^2 score of 0.9055 in the test set. Explainable artificial intelligence was used to analyze the model's predictions during the October 2020 Central South America compound heatwave and drought event. We chose the same area exactly one year before the event as counterfactual, finding that the average temperature and surface pressure are generally the best predictors under normal conditions. In contrast, minimum anomalies of evaporation and surface latent heat flux take the lead during the event. A change of regime is also observed in the attributions before the event, which might help assess how long the event was brewing before happening. The code to replicate all experiments and figures in this paper is publicly available at https://github.com/DeepExtremes/txyXAI

Recent advances in AI weather forecasting have led to the emergence of so-called "foundation models", typically defined by expensive pretraining and minimal fine-tuning for downstream tasks. However, in the natural sciences, a desirable foundation model should also encode meaningful statistical relationships between the underlying physical variables. This study evaluates the performance of the state-of-the-art Aurora foundation model in predicting hydrological variables, which were not considered during pretraining. We introduce a lightweight approach using shallow decoders trained on the latent representations of the pretrained model to predict these new variables. As a baseline, we compare this to fine-tuning the full model, which allows further optimization of the latent space while incorporating new variables into both inputs and outputs. The decoder-based approach requires 50% less training time and 35% less memory, while achieving strong accuracy across various hydrological variables and preserving desirable properties of the foundation model, such as autoregressive stability. Notably, decoder accuracy depends on the physical correlation between the new variables and those used during pretraining, indicating that Aurora's latent space captures meaningful physical relationships. In this sense, we argue that an important quality metric for foundation models in Earth sciences is their ability to be extended to new variables without a full fine-tuning. This provides a new perspective for making foundation models more accessible to communities with limited computational resources, while supporting broader adoption in Earth sciences.

Causal disentanglement seeks a representation of data involving latent variables that relate to one another via a causal model. A representation is identifiable if both the latent model and the transformation from latent to observed variables are unique. In this paper, we study observed variables that are a linear transformation of a linear latent causal model. Data from interventions are necessary for identifiability: if one latent variable is missing an intervention, we show that there exist distinct models that cannot be distinguished. Conversely, we show that a single intervention on each latent variable is sufficient for identifiability. Our proof uses a generalization of the RQ decomposition of a matrix that replaces the usual orthogonal and upper triangular conditions with analogues depending on a partial order on the rows of the matrix, with partial order determined by a latent causal model. We corroborate our theoretical results with a method for causal disentanglement that accurately recovers a latent causal model.

The impact of randomness on model training is poorly understood. How do differences in data order and initialization actually manifest in the model, such that some training runs outperform others or converge faster? Furthermore, how can we interpret the resulting training dynamics and the phase transitions that characterize different trajectories? To understand the effect of randomness on the dynamics and outcomes of neural network training, we train models multiple times with different random seeds and compute a variety of metrics throughout training, such as the L_2 norm, mean, and variance of the neural network's weights. We then fit a hidden Markov model (HMM) over the resulting sequences of metrics. The HMM represents training as a stochastic process of transitions between latent states, providing an intuitive overview of significant changes during training. Using our method, we produce a low-dimensional, discrete representation of training dynamics on grokking tasks, image classification, and masked language modeling. We use the HMM representation to study phase transitions and identify latent "detour" states that slow down convergence.

A large part of the literature on learning disentangled representations focuses on variational autoencoders (VAE). Recent developments demonstrate that disentanglement cannot be obtained in a fully unsupervised setting without inductive biases on models and data. However, Khemakhem et al., AISTATS, 2020 suggest that employing a particular form of factorized prior, conditionally dependent on auxiliary variables complementing input observations, can be one such bias, resulting in an identifiable model with guarantees on disentanglement. Working along this line, we propose a novel VAE-based generative model with theoretical guarantees on identifiability. We obtain our conditional prior over the latents by learning an optimal representation, which imposes an additional strength on their regularization. We also extend our method to semi-supervised settings. Experimental results indicate superior performance with respect to state-of-the-art approaches, according to several established metrics proposed in the literature on disentanglement.

Latent 3D reconstruction has shown great promise in empowering 3D semantic understanding and 3D generation by distilling 2D features into the 3D space. However, existing approaches struggle with the domain gap between 2D feature space and 3D representations, resulting in degraded rendering performance. To address this challenge, we propose a novel framework that integrates 3D awareness into the 2D latent space. The framework consists of three stages: (1) a correspondence-aware autoencoding method that enhances the 3D consistency of 2D latent representations, (2) a latent radiance field (LRF) that lifts these 3D-aware 2D representations into 3D space, and (3) a VAE-Radiance Field (VAE-RF) alignment strategy that improves image decoding from the rendered 2D representations. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art latent 3D reconstruction approaches in terms of synthesis performance and cross-dataset generalizability across diverse indoor and outdoor scenes. To our knowledge, this is the first work showing the radiance field representations constructed from 2D latent representations can yield photorealistic 3D reconstruction performance.

The past several years have witnessed Variational Auto-Encoder's superiority in various text generation tasks. However, due to the sequential nature of the text, auto-regressive decoders tend to ignore latent variables and then reduce to simple language models, known as the KL vanishing problem, which would further deteriorate when VAE is combined with Transformer-based structures. To ameliorate this problem, we propose DELLA, a novel variational Transformer framework. DELLA learns a series of layer-wise latent variables with each inferred from those of lower layers and tightly coupled with the hidden states by low-rank tensor product. In this way, DELLA forces these posterior latent variables to be fused deeply with the whole computation path and hence incorporate more information. We theoretically demonstrate that our method can be regarded as entangling latent variables to avoid posterior information decrease through layers, enabling DELLA to get higher non-zero KL values even without any annealing or thresholding tricks. Experiments on four unconditional and three conditional generation tasks show that DELLA could better alleviate KL vanishing and improve both quality and diversity compared to several strong baselines.

A model involving Gaussian processes (GPs) is introduced to simultaneously handle multi-task learning, clustering, and prediction for multiple functional data. This procedure acts as a model-based clustering method for functional data as well as a learning step for subsequent predictions for new tasks. The model is instantiated as a mixture of multi-task GPs with common mean processes. A variational EM algorithm is derived for dealing with the optimisation of the hyper-parameters along with the hyper-posteriors' estimation of latent variables and processes. We establish explicit formulas for integrating the mean processes and the latent clustering variables within a predictive distribution, accounting for uncertainty on both aspects. This distribution is defined as a mixture of cluster-specific GP predictions, which enhances the performances when dealing with group-structured data. The model handles irregular grid of observations and offers different hypotheses on the covariance structure for sharing additional information across tasks. The performances on both clustering and prediction tasks are assessed through various simulated scenarios and real datasets. The overall algorithm, called MagmaClust, is publicly available as an R package.

Sparse autoencoders (SAEs) have lately been used to uncover interpretable latent features in large language models. Here, we explore their potential for decomposing latent representations in complex and high-dimensional biological data, where the underlying variables are often unknown. On simulated data we show that generative hidden variables can be captured in learned representations in the form of superpositions. The degree to which they are learned depends on the completeness of the representations. Superpositions, however, are not identifiable if these generative variables are unknown. SAEs can to some extent recover these variables, yielding interpretable features. Applied to single-cell multi-omics data, we show that an SAE can uncover key biological processes such as carbon dioxide transport and ion homeostasis, which are crucial for red blood cell differentiation and immune function. Our findings highlight how SAEs can be used in advancing interpretability in biological and other scientific domains.

Object Hallucination (OH) has been acknowledged as one of the major trustworthy challenges in Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs). Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) indicate that internal states, such as hidden states, encode the "overall truthfulness" of generated responses. However, it remains under-explored how internal states in LVLMs function and whether they could serve as "per-token" hallucination indicators, which is essential for mitigating OH. In this paper, we first conduct an in-depth exploration of LVLM internal states in relation to OH issues and discover that (1) LVLM internal states are high-specificity per-token indicators of hallucination behaviors. Moreover, (2) different LVLMs encode universal patterns of hallucinations in common latent subspaces, indicating that there exist "generic truthful directions" shared by various LVLMs. Based on these discoveries, we propose Truthful-Guided Pre-Intervention (TruthPrInt) that first learns the truthful direction of LVLM decoding and then applies truthful-guided inference-time intervention during LVLM decoding. We further propose ComnHallu to enhance both cross-LVLM and cross-data hallucination detection transferability by constructing and aligning hallucination latent subspaces. We evaluate TruthPrInt in extensive experimental settings, including in-domain and out-of-domain scenarios, over popular LVLMs and OH benchmarks. Experimental results indicate that TruthPrInt significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods. Codes will be available at https://github.com/jinhaoduan/TruthPrInt.

This study presents the application of generative deep learning techniques to evaluate marine fog visibility nowcasting using the FATIMA (Fog and turbulence interactions in the marine atmosphere) campaign observations collected during July 2022 in the North Atlantic in the Grand Banks area and vicinity of Sable Island (SI), northeast of Canada. The measurements were collected using the Vaisala Forward Scatter Sensor model FD70 and Weather Transmitter model WXT50, and Gill R3A ultrasonic anemometer mounted on the Research Vessel Atlantic Condor. To perform nowcasting, the time series of fog visibility (Vis), wind speed, dew point depression, and relative humidity with respect to water were preprocessed to have lagged time step features. Generative nowcasting of Vis time series for lead times of 30 and 60 minutes were performed using conditional generative adversarial networks (cGAN) regression at visibility thresholds of Vis < 1 km and < 10 km. Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) was used as a baseline method for comparison against cGAN. At the 30 min lead time, Vis was best predicted with cGAN at Vis < 1 km (RMSE = 0.151 km) and with XGBoost at Vis < 10 km (RMSE = 2.821 km). At the 60 min lead time, Vis was best predicted with XGBoost at Vis < 1 km (RMSE = 0.167 km) and Vis < 10 km (RMSE = 3.508 km), but the cGAN RMSE was similar to XGBoost. Despite nowcasting Vis at 30 min being quite difficult, the ability of the cGAN model to track the variation in Vis at 1 km suggests that there is potential for generative analysis of marine fog visibility using observational meteorological parameters.

Maximizing the log-likelihood is a crucial aspect of learning latent variable models, and variational inference (VI) stands as the commonly adopted method. However, VI can encounter challenges in achieving a high log-likelihood when dealing with complicated posterior distributions. In response to this limitation, we introduce a novel variational importance sampling (VIS) approach that directly estimates and maximizes the log-likelihood. VIS leverages the optimal proposal distribution, achieved by minimizing the forward chi^2 divergence, to enhance log-likelihood estimation. We apply VIS to various popular latent variable models, including mixture models, variational auto-encoders, and partially observable generalized linear models. Results demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, both in terms of log-likelihood and model parameter estimation.

This study introduces PV-RNN, a novel variational RNN inspired by the predictive-coding ideas. The model learns to extract the probabilistic structures hidden in fluctuating temporal patterns by dynamically changing the stochasticity of its latent states. Its architecture attempts to address two major concerns of variational Bayes RNNs: how can latent variables learn meaningful representations and how can the inference model transfer future observations to the latent variables. PV-RNN does both by introducing adaptive vectors mirroring the training data, whose values can then be adapted differently during evaluation. Moreover, prediction errors during backpropagation, rather than external inputs during the forward computation, are used to convey information to the network about the external data. For testing, we introduce error regression for predicting unseen sequences as inspired by predictive coding that leverages those mechanisms. The model introduces a weighting parameter, the meta-prior, to balance the optimization pressure placed on two terms of a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the sequential data. We test the model on two datasets with probabilistic structures and show that with high values of the meta-prior the network develops deterministic chaos through which the data's randomness is imitated. For low values, the model behaves as a random process. The network performs best on intermediate values, and is able to capture the latent probabilistic structure with good generalization. Analyzing the meta-prior's impact on the network allows to precisely study the theoretical value and practical benefits of incorporating stochastic dynamics in our model. We demonstrate better prediction performance on a robot imitation task with our model using error regression compared to a standard variational Bayes model lacking such a procedure.

The coldest Y spectral type brown dwarfs are similar in mass and temperature to cool and warm (sim200 -- 400 K) giant exoplanets. We can therefore use their atmospheres as proxies for planetary atmospheres, testing our understanding of physics and chemistry for these complex, cool worlds. At these cold temperatures, their atmospheres are cold enough for water clouds to form, and chemical timescales increase, increasing the likelihood of disequilibrium chemistry compared to warmer classes of planets. JWST observations are revolutionizing the characterization of these worlds with high signal-to-noise, moderate resolution near- and mid-infrared spectra. The spectra have been used to measure the abundances of prominent species like water, methane, and ammonia; species that trace chemical reactions like carbon monoxide; and even isotopologues of carbon monoxide and ammonia. Here, we present atmospheric retrieval results using both published fixed-slit (GTO program 1230) and new averaged time series observations (GO program 2327) of the coldest known Y dwarf, WISE 0855-0714 (using NIRSpec G395M spectra), which has an effective temperature of sim 264 K. We present a detection of deuterium in an atmosphere outside of the solar system via a relative measurement of deuterated methane (CH_{3}D) and standard methane. From this, we infer the D/H ratio of a substellar object outside the solar system for the first time. We also present a well-constrained part-per-billion abundance of phosphine (PH_{3}). We discuss our interpretation of these results and the implications for brown dwarf and giant exoplanet formation and evolution.

We present a method for estimating neural scenes representations of objects given only a single image. The core of our method is the estimation of a geometric scaffold for the object and its use as a guide for the reconstruction of the underlying radiance field. Our formulation is based on a generative process that first maps a latent code to a voxelized shape, and then renders it to an image, with the object appearance being controlled by a second latent code. During inference, we optimize both the latent codes and the networks to fit a test image of a new object. The explicit disentanglement of shape and appearance allows our model to be fine-tuned given a single image. We can then render new views in a geometrically consistent manner and they represent faithfully the input object. Additionally, our method is able to generalize to images outside of the training domain (more realistic renderings and even real photographs). Finally, the inferred geometric scaffold is itself an accurate estimate of the object's 3D shape. We demonstrate in several experiments the effectiveness of our approach in both synthetic and real images.

Latent Diffusion Models (LDMs) capture the dynamic evolution of latent variables over time, blending patterns and multimodality in a generative system. Despite the proficiency of LDM in various applications, such as text-to-image generation, facilitated by robust text encoders and a variational autoencoder, the critical need to deploy large generative models on edge devices compels a search for more compact yet effective alternatives. Post Training Quantization (PTQ), a method to compress the operational size of deep learning models, encounters challenges when applied to LDM due to temporal and structural complexities. This study proposes a quantization strategy that efficiently quantize LDMs, leveraging Signal-to-Quantization-Noise Ratio (SQNR) as a pivotal metric for evaluation. By treating the quantization discrepancy as relative noise and identifying sensitive part(s) of a model, we propose an efficient quantization approach encompassing both global and local strategies. The global quantization process mitigates relative quantization noise by initiating higher-precision quantization on sensitive blocks, while local treatments address specific challenges in quantization-sensitive and time-sensitive modules. The outcomes of our experiments reveal that the implementation of both global and local treatments yields a highly efficient and effective Post Training Quantization (PTQ) of LDMs.

Predicting the behavior of complex systems is critical in many scientific and engineering domains, and hinges on the model's ability to capture their underlying dynamics. Existing methods encode the intrinsic dynamics of high-dimensional observations through latent representations and predict autoregressively. However, these latent representations lose the inherent spatial structure of spatiotemporal dynamics, leading to the predictor's inability to effectively model spatial interactions and neglect emerging dynamics during long-term prediction. In this work, we propose SparseDiff, introducing a test-time adaptation strategy to dynamically update the encoding scheme to accommodate emergent spatiotemporal structures during the long-term evolution of the system. Specifically, we first design a codebook-based sparse encoder, which coarsens the continuous spatial domain into a sparse graph topology. Then, we employ a graph neural ordinary differential equation to model the dynamics and guide a diffusion decoder for reconstruction. SparseDiff autoregressively predicts the spatiotemporal evolution and adjust the sparse topological structure to adapt to emergent spatiotemporal patterns by adaptive re-encoding. Extensive evaluations on representative systems demonstrate that SparseDiff achieves an average prediction error reduction of 49.99\% compared to baselines, requiring only 1\% of the spatial resolution.

Many deep generative models are defined as a push-forward of a Gaussian measure by a continuous generator, such as Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) or Variational Auto-Encoders (VAEs). This work explores the latent space of such deep generative models. A key issue with these models is their tendency to output samples outside of the support of the target distribution when learning disconnected distributions. We investigate the relationship between the performance of these models and the geometry of their latent space. Building on recent developments in geometric measure theory, we prove a sufficient condition for optimality in the case where the dimension of the latent space is larger than the number of modes. Through experiments on GANs, we demonstrate the validity of our theoretical results and gain new insights into the latent space geometry of these models. Additionally, we propose a truncation method that enforces a simplicial cluster structure in the latent space and improves the performance of GANs.

Powerful generative models, particularly in Natural Language Modelling, are commonly trained by maximizing a variational lower bound on the data log likelihood. These models often suffer from poor use of their latent variable, with ad-hoc annealing factors used to encourage retention of information in the latent variable. We discuss an alternative and general approach to latent variable modelling, based on an objective that combines the data log likelihood as well as the likelihood of a perfect reconstruction through an autoencoder. Tying these together ensures by design that the latent variable captures information about the observations, whilst retaining the ability to generate well. Interestingly, though this approach is a priori unrelated to VAEs, the lower bound attained is identical to the standard VAE bound but with the addition of a simple pre-factor; thus, providing a formal interpretation of the commonly used, ad-hoc pre-factors in training VAEs.

Generative models, especially diffusion models (DMs), have achieved promising results for generating feature-rich geometries and advancing foundational science problems such as molecule design. Inspired by the recent huge success of Stable (latent) Diffusion models, we propose a novel and principled method for 3D molecule generation named Geometric Latent Diffusion Models (GeoLDM). GeoLDM is the first latent DM model for the molecular geometry domain, composed of autoencoders encoding structures into continuous latent codes and DMs operating in the latent space. Our key innovation is that for modeling the 3D molecular geometries, we capture its critical roto-translational equivariance constraints by building a point-structured latent space with both invariant scalars and equivariant tensors. Extensive experiments demonstrate that GeoLDM can consistently achieve better performance on multiple molecule generation benchmarks, with up to 7\% improvement for the valid percentage of large biomolecules. Results also demonstrate GeoLDM's higher capacity for controllable generation thanks to the latent modeling. Code is provided at https://github.com/MinkaiXu/GeoLDM.

Recently, parallel text generation has received widespread attention due to its success in generation efficiency. Although many advanced techniques are proposed to improve its generation quality, they still need the help of an autoregressive model for training to overcome the one-to-many multi-modal phenomenon in the dataset, limiting their applications. In this paper, we propose latent-GLAT, which employs the discrete latent variables to capture word categorical information and invoke an advanced curriculum learning technique, alleviating the multi-modality problem. Experiment results show that our method outperforms strong baselines without the help of an autoregressive model, which further broadens the application scenarios of the parallel decoding paradigm.

Deep generative vision models are now able to synthesize realistic-looking satellite imagery. But, the possibility of hallucinations prevents their adoption for risk-sensitive applications, such as generating materials for communicating climate change. To demonstrate this issue, we train a generative adversarial network (pix2pixHD) to create synthetic satellite imagery of future flooding and reforestation events. We find that a pure deep learning-based model can generate photorealistic flood visualizations but hallucinates floods at locations that were not susceptible to flooding. To address this issue, we propose to condition and evaluate generative vision models on segmentation maps of physics-based flood models. We show that our physics-conditioned model outperforms the pure deep learning-based model and a handcrafted baseline. We evaluate the generalization capability of our method to different remote sensing data and different climate-related events (reforestation). We publish our code and dataset which includes the data for a third case study of melting Arctic sea ice and >30,000 labeled HD image triplets -- or the equivalent of 5.5 million images at 128x128 pixels -- for segmentation guided image-to-image translation in Earth observation. Code and data is available at https://github.com/blutjens/eie-earth-public.

We propose a quantum version of a generative diffusion model. In this algorithm, artificial neural networks are replaced with parameterized quantum circuits, in order to directly generate quantum states. We present both a full quantum and a latent quantum version of the algorithm; we also present a conditioned version of these models. The models' performances have been evaluated using quantitative metrics complemented by qualitative assessments. An implementation of a simplified version of the algorithm has been executed on real NISQ quantum hardware.

Existing machine learning models of weather variability are not formulated to enable assessment of their response to varying external boundary conditions such as sea surface temperature and greenhouse gases. Here we present ACE2 (Ai2 Climate Emulator version 2) and its application to reproducing atmospheric variability over the past 80 years on timescales from days to decades. ACE2 is a 450M-parameter autoregressive machine learning emulator, operating with 6-hour temporal resolution, 1{\deg} horizontal resolution and eight vertical layers. It exactly conserves global dry air mass and moisture and can be stepped forward stably for arbitrarily many steps with a throughput of about 1500 simulated years per wall clock day. ACE2 generates emergent phenomena such as tropical cyclones, the Madden Julian Oscillation, and sudden stratospheric warmings. Furthermore, it accurately reproduces the atmospheric response to El Ni\~no variability and global trends of temperature over the past 80 years. However, its sensitivities to separately changing sea surface temperature and carbon dioxide are not entirely realistic.

The weather forecasting system is important for science and society, and significant achievements have been made in applying artificial intelligence (AI) to medium-range weather forecasting. However, existing AI-based weather forecasting models rely on analysis or reanalysis products from traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems as initial conditions for making predictions. Initial states are typically generated by traditional data assimilation components, which are computational expensive and time-consuming. Here we present an AI-based data assimilation model, i.e., Adas, for global weather variables. By introducing the confidence matrix, Adas employs gated convolution to handle sparse observations and gated cross-attention for capturing the interactions between the background and observations. Further, we combine Adas with the advanced AI-based forecasting model (i.e., FengWu) to construct the first end-to-end AI-based global weather forecasting system: FengWu-Adas. We demonstrate that Adas can assimilate global observations to produce high-quality analysis, enabling the system operate stably for long term. Moreover, we are the first to apply the methods to real-world scenarios, which is more challenging and has considerable practical application potential. We have also achieved the forecasts based on the analyses generated by AI with a skillful forecast lead time exceeding that of the IFS for the first time.

Restoring nighttime images affected by multiple adverse weather conditions is a practical yet under-explored research problem, as multiple weather conditions often coexist in the real world alongside various lighting effects at night. This paper first explores the challenging multi-weather nighttime image restoration task, where various types of weather degradations are intertwined with flare effects. To support the research, we contribute the AllWeatherNight dataset, featuring large-scale high-quality nighttime images with diverse compositional degradations, synthesized using our introduced illumination-aware degradation generation. Moreover, we present ClearNight, a unified nighttime image restoration framework, which effectively removes complex degradations in one go. Specifically, ClearNight extracts Retinex-based dual priors and explicitly guides the network to focus on uneven illumination regions and intrinsic texture contents respectively, thereby enhancing restoration effectiveness in nighttime scenarios. In order to better represent the common and unique characters of multiple weather degradations, we introduce a weather-aware dynamic specific-commonality collaboration method, which identifies weather degradations and adaptively selects optimal candidate units associated with specific weather types. Our ClearNight achieves state-of-the-art performance on both synthetic and real-world images. Comprehensive ablation experiments validate the necessity of AllWeatherNight dataset as well as the effectiveness of ClearNight. Project page: https://henlyta.github.io/ClearNight/mainpage.html

In this article, we focus on decomposing latent representations in generative adversarial networks or learned feature representations in deep autoencoders into semantically controllable factors in a semisupervised manner, without modifying the original trained models. Particularly, we propose factors' decomposer-entangler network (FDEN) that learns to decompose a latent representation into mutually independent factors. Given a latent representation, the proposed framework draws a set of interpretable factors, each aligned to independent factors of variations by minimizing their total correlation in an information-theoretic means. As a plug-in method, we have applied our proposed FDEN to the existing networks of adversarially learned inference and pioneer network and performed computer vision tasks of image-to-image translation in semantic ways, e.g., changing styles, while keeping the identity of a subject, and object classification in a few-shot learning scheme. We have also validated the effectiveness of the proposed method with various ablation studies in the qualitative, quantitative, and statistical examination.

In this paper, we present LaVieID, a novel local autoregressive video diffusion framework designed to tackle the challenging identity-preserving text-to-video task. The key idea of LaVieID is to mitigate the loss of identity information inherent in the stochastic global generation process of diffusion transformers (DiTs) from both spatial and temporal perspectives. Specifically, unlike the global and unstructured modeling of facial latent states in existing DiTs, LaVieID introduces a local router to explicitly represent latent states by weighted combinations of fine-grained local facial structures. This alleviates undesirable feature interference and encourages DiTs to capture distinctive facial characteristics. Furthermore, a temporal autoregressive module is integrated into LaVieID to refine denoised latent tokens before video decoding. This module divides latent tokens temporally into chunks, exploiting their long-range temporal dependencies to predict biases for rectifying tokens, thereby significantly enhancing inter-frame identity consistency. Consequently, LaVieID can generate high-fidelity personalized videos and achieve state-of-the-art performance. Our code and models are available at https://github.com/ssugarwh/LaVieID.

Given a stationary state-space model that relates a sequence of hidden states and corresponding measurements or observations, Bayesian filtering provides a principled statistical framework for inferring the posterior distribution of the current state given all measurements up to the present time. For example, the Apollo lunar module implemented a Kalman filter to infer its location from a sequence of earth-based radar measurements and land safely on the moon. To perform Bayesian filtering, we require a measurement model that describes the conditional distribution of each observation given state. The Kalman filter takes this measurement model to be linear, Gaussian. Here we show how a nonlinear, Gaussian approximation to the distribution of state given observation can be used in conjunction with Bayes' rule to build a nonlinear, non-Gaussian measurement model. The resulting approach, called the Discriminative Kalman Filter (DKF), retains fast closed-form updates for the posterior. We argue there are many cases where the distribution of state given measurement is better-approximated as Gaussian, especially when the dimensionality of measurements far exceeds that of states and the Bernstein-von Mises theorem applies. Online neural decoding for brain-computer interfaces provides a motivating example, where filtering incorporates increasingly detailed measurements of neural activity to provide users control over external devices. Within the BrainGate2 clinical trial, the DKF successfully enabled three volunteers with quadriplegia to control an on-screen cursor in real-time using mental imagery alone. Participant "T9" used the DKF to type out messages on a tablet PC.

Many approaches in generalized zero-shot learning rely on cross-modal mapping between the image feature space and the class embedding space. As labeled images are expensive, one direction is to augment the dataset by generating either images or image features. However, the former misses fine-grained details and the latter requires learning a mapping associated with class embeddings. In this work, we take feature generation one step further and propose a model where a shared latent space of image features and class embeddings is learned by modality-specific aligned variational autoencoders. This leaves us with the required discriminative information about the image and classes in the latent features, on which we train a softmax classifier. The key to our approach is that we align the distributions learned from images and from side-information to construct latent features that contain the essential multi-modal information associated with unseen classes. We evaluate our learned latent features on several benchmark datasets, i.e. CUB, SUN, AWA1 and AWA2, and establish a new state of the art on generalized zero-shot as well as on few-shot learning. Moreover, our results on ImageNet with various zero-shot splits show that our latent features generalize well in large-scale settings.

Systems of interacting objects often evolve under the influence of field effects that govern their dynamics, yet previous works have abstracted away from such effects, and assume that systems evolve in a vacuum. In this work, we focus on discovering these fields, and infer them from the observed dynamics alone, without directly observing them. We theorize the presence of latent force fields, and propose neural fields to learn them. Since the observed dynamics constitute the net effect of local object interactions and global field effects, recently popularized equivariant networks are inapplicable, as they fail to capture global information. To address this, we propose to disentangle local object interactions -- which are SE(n) equivariant and depend on relative states -- from external global field effects -- which depend on absolute states. We model interactions with equivariant graph networks, and combine them with neural fields in a novel graph network that integrates field forces. Our experiments show that we can accurately discover the underlying fields in charged particles settings, traffic scenes, and gravitational n-body problems, and effectively use them to learn the system and forecast future trajectories.

Contrastively trained encoders have recently been proven to invert the data-generating process: they encode each input, e.g., an image, into the true latent vector that generated the image (Zimmermann et al., 2021). However, real-world observations often have inherent ambiguities. For instance, images may be blurred or only show a 2D view of a 3D object, so multiple latents could have generated them. This makes the true posterior for the latent vector probabilistic with heteroscedastic uncertainty. In this setup, we extend the common InfoNCE objective and encoders to predict latent distributions instead of points. We prove that these distributions recover the correct posteriors of the data-generating process, including its level of aleatoric uncertainty, up to a rotation of the latent space. In addition to providing calibrated uncertainty estimates, these posteriors allow the computation of credible intervals in image retrieval. They comprise images with the same latent as a given query, subject to its uncertainty. Code is available at https://github.com/mkirchhof/Probabilistic_Contrastive_Learning

We argue and demonstrate that projected entangled-pair states (PEPS) outperform matrix product states significantly for the task of generative modeling of datasets with an intrinsic two-dimensional structure such as images. Our approach builds on a recently introduced algorithm for sampling PEPS, which allows for the efficient optimization and sampling of the distributions.

The variational autoencoder (VAE) is a popular, deep, latent-variable model (DLVM) due to its simple yet effective formulation for modeling the data distribution. Moreover, optimizing the VAE objective function is more manageable than other DLVMs. The bottleneck dimension of the VAE is a crucial design choice, and it has strong ramifications for the model's performance, such as finding the hidden explanatory factors of a dataset using the representations learned by the VAE. However, the size of the latent dimension of the VAE is often treated as a hyperparameter estimated empirically through trial and error. To this end, we propose a statistical formulation to discover the relevant latent factors required for modeling a dataset. In this work, we use a hierarchical prior in the latent space that estimates the variance of the latent axes using the encoded data, which identifies the relevant latent dimensions. For this, we replace the fixed prior in the VAE objective function with a hierarchical prior, keeping the remainder of the formulation unchanged. We call the proposed method the automatic relevancy detection in the variational autoencoder (ARD-VAE). We demonstrate the efficacy of the ARD-VAE on multiple benchmark datasets in finding the relevant latent dimensions and their effect on different evaluation metrics, such as FID score and disentanglement analysis.

A fundamental challenge in embodied intelligence is developing expressive and compact state representations for efficient world modeling and decision making. However, existing methods often fail to achieve this balance, yielding representations that are either overly redundant or lacking in task-critical information. We propose an unsupervised approach that learns a highly compressed two-token state representation using a lightweight encoder and a pre-trained Diffusion Transformer (DiT) decoder, capitalizing on its strong generative prior. Our representation is efficient, interpretable, and integrates seamlessly into existing VLA-based models, improving performance by 14.3% on LIBERO and 30% in real-world task success with minimal inference overhead. More importantly, we find that the difference between these tokens, obtained via latent interpolation, naturally serves as a highly effective latent action, which can be further decoded into executable robot actions. This emergent capability reveals that our representation captures structured dynamics without explicit supervision. We name our method StaMo for its ability to learn generalizable robotic Motion from compact State representation, which is encoded from static images, challenging the prevalent dependence to learning latent action on complex architectures and video data. The resulting latent actions also enhance policy co-training, outperforming prior methods by 10.4% with improved interpretability. Moreover, our approach scales effectively across diverse data sources, including real-world robot data, simulation, and human egocentric video.

Partial Differential Equations are foundational in modeling science and natural systems such as fluid dynamics and weather forecasting. The Latent Evolution of PDEs method is designed to address the computational intensity of classical and deep learning-based PDE solvers by proposing a scalable and efficient alternative. To enhance the efficiency and accuracy of LE-PDE, we incorporate the Mamba model, an advanced machine learning model known for its predictive efficiency and robustness in handling complex dynamic systems with a progressive learning strategy. The LE-PDE was tested on several benchmark problems. The method demonstrated a marked reduction in computational time compared to traditional solvers and standalone deep learning models while maintaining high accuracy in predicting system behavior over time. Our method doubles the inference speed compared to the LE-PDE while retaining the same level of parameter efficiency, making it well-suited for scenarios requiring long-term predictions.

We propose a novel family of language models, Latent-Thought Language Models (LTMs), which incorporate explicit latent thought vectors that follow an explicit prior model in latent space. These latent thought vectors guide the autoregressive generation of ground tokens through a Transformer decoder. Training employs a dual-rate optimization process within the classical variational Bayes framework: fast learning of local variational parameters for the posterior distribution of latent vectors, and slow learning of global decoder parameters. Empirical studies reveal that LTMs possess additional scaling dimensions beyond traditional LLMs, yielding a structured design space. Higher sample efficiency can be achieved by increasing training compute per token, with further gains possible by trading model size for more inference steps. Designed based on these scaling properties, LTMs demonstrate superior sample and parameter efficiency compared to conventional autoregressive models and discrete diffusion models. They significantly outperform these counterparts in validation perplexity and zero-shot language modeling. Additionally, LTMs exhibit emergent few-shot in-context reasoning capabilities that scale with model and latent size, and achieve competitive performance in conditional and unconditional text generation.

Disentangled representations, where the higher level data generative factors are reflected in disjoint latent dimensions, offer several benefits such as ease of deriving invariant representations, transferability to other tasks, interpretability, etc. We consider the problem of unsupervised learning of disentangled representations from large pool of unlabeled observations, and propose a variational inference based approach to infer disentangled latent factors. We introduce a regularizer on the expectation of the approximate posterior over observed data that encourages the disentanglement. We also propose a new disentanglement metric which is better aligned with the qualitative disentanglement observed in the decoder's output. We empirically observe significant improvement over existing methods in terms of both disentanglement and data likelihood (reconstruction quality).

Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) have emerged as a promising approach for interpreting neural network representations by learning sparse, human-interpretable features from dense activations. We investigate whether incorporating variational methods into SAE architectures can improve feature organization and interpretability. We introduce the Variational Sparse Autoencoder (vSAE), which replaces deterministic ReLU gating with stochastic sampling from learned Gaussian posteriors and incorporates KL divergence regularization toward a standard normal prior. Our hypothesis is that this probabilistic sampling creates dispersive pressure, causing features to organize more coherently in the latent space while avoiding overlap. We evaluate a TopK vSAE against a standard TopK SAE on Pythia-70M transformer residual stream activations using comprehensive benchmarks including SAE Bench, individual feature interpretability analysis, and global latent space visualization through t-SNE. The vSAE underperforms standard SAE across core evaluation metrics, though excels at feature independence and ablation metrics. The KL divergence term creates excessive regularization pressure that substantially reduces the fraction of living features, leading to observed performance degradation. While vSAE features demonstrate improved robustness, they exhibit many more dead features than baseline. Our findings suggest that naive application of variational methods to SAEs does not improve feature organization or interpretability.

Recent advances in latent diffusion models have demonstrated their effectiveness for high-resolution image synthesis. However, the properties of the latent space from tokenizer for better learning and generation of diffusion models remain under-explored. Theoretically and empirically, we find that improved generation quality is closely tied to the latent distributions with better structure, such as the ones with fewer Gaussian Mixture modes and more discriminative features. Motivated by these insights, we propose MAETok, an autoencoder (AE) leveraging mask modeling to learn semantically rich latent space while maintaining reconstruction fidelity. Extensive experiments validate our analysis, demonstrating that the variational form of autoencoders is not necessary, and a discriminative latent space from AE alone enables state-of-the-art performance on ImageNet generation using only 128 tokens. MAETok achieves significant practical improvements, enabling a gFID of 1.69 with 76x faster training and 31x higher inference throughput for 512x512 generation. Our findings show that the structure of the latent space, rather than variational constraints, is crucial for effective diffusion models. Code and trained models are released.

Multi-channel imaging data is a prevalent data format in scientific fields such as astronomy and biology. The structured information and the high dimensionality of these 3-D tensor data makes the analysis an intriguing but challenging topic for statisticians and practitioners. The low-rank scalar-on-tensor regression model, in particular, has received widespread attention and has been re-formulated as a tensor Gaussian Process (Tensor-GP) model with multi-linear kernel in Yu et al. (2018). In this paper, we extend the Tensor-GP model by integrating a dimensionality reduction technique, called tensor contraction, with a Tensor-GP for a scalar-on-tensor regression task with multi-channel imaging data. This is motivated by the solar flare forecasting problem with high dimensional multi-channel imaging data. We first estimate a latent, reduced-size tensor for each data tensor and then apply a multi-linear Tensor-GP on the latent tensor data for prediction. We introduce an anisotropic total-variation regularization when conducting the tensor contraction to obtain a sparse and smooth latent tensor. We then propose an alternating proximal gradient descent algorithm for estimation. We validate our approach via extensive simulation studies and applying it to the solar flare forecasting problem.

Masked diffusion models (MDM) are powerful generative models for discrete data that generate samples by progressively unmasking tokens in a sequence. Each token can take one of two states: masked or unmasked. We observe that token sequences often remain unchanged between consecutive sampling steps; consequently, the model repeatedly processes identical inputs, leading to redundant computation. To address this inefficiency, we propose the Partial masking scheme (Prime), which augments MDM by allowing tokens to take intermediate states interpolated between the masked and unmasked states. This design enables the model to make predictions based on partially observed token information, and facilitates a fine-grained denoising process. We derive a variational training objective and introduce a simple architectural design to accommodate intermediate-state inputs. Our method demonstrates superior performance across a diverse set of generative modeling tasks. On text data, it achieves a perplexity of 15.36 on OpenWebText, outperforming previous MDM (21.52), autoregressive models (17.54), and their hybrid variants (17.58), without relying on an autoregressive formulation. On image data, it attains competitive FID scores of 3.26 on CIFAR-10 and 6.98 on ImageNet-32, comparable to leading continuous generative models.

This work is about estimating the hallucination rate for in-context learning (ICL) with Generative AI. In ICL, a conditional generative model (CGM) is prompted with a dataset and asked to make a prediction based on that dataset. The Bayesian interpretation of ICL assumes that the CGM is calculating a posterior predictive distribution over an unknown Bayesian model of a latent parameter and data. With this perspective, we define a hallucination as a generated prediction that has low-probability under the true latent parameter. We develop a new method that takes an ICL problem -- that is, a CGM, a dataset, and a prediction question -- and estimates the probability that a CGM will generate a hallucination. Our method only requires generating queries and responses from the model and evaluating its response log probability. We empirically evaluate our method on synthetic regression and natural language ICL tasks using large language models.

Data-driven deep learning models are transforming global weather forecasting. It is an open question if this success can extend to climate modeling, where the complexity of the data and long inference rollouts pose significant challenges. Here, we present the first conditional generative model that produces accurate and physically consistent global climate ensemble simulations by emulating a coarse version of the United States' primary operational global forecast model, FV3GFS. Our model integrates the dynamics-informed diffusion framework (DYffusion) with the Spherical Fourier Neural Operator (SFNO) architecture, enabling stable 100-year simulations at 6-hourly timesteps while maintaining low computational overhead compared to single-step deterministic baselines. The model achieves near gold-standard performance for climate model emulation, outperforming existing approaches and demonstrating promising ensemble skill. This work represents a significant advance towards efficient, data-driven climate simulations that can enhance our understanding of the climate system and inform adaptation strategies.

Diffusion models have achieved unprecedented performance in generative modeling. The commonly-adopted formulation of the latent code of diffusion models is a sequence of gradually denoised samples, as opposed to the simpler (e.g., Gaussian) latent space of GANs, VAEs, and normalizing flows. This paper provides an alternative, Gaussian formulation of the latent space of various diffusion models, as well as an invertible DPM-Encoder that maps images into the latent space. While our formulation is purely based on the definition of diffusion models, we demonstrate several intriguing consequences. (1) Empirically, we observe that a common latent space emerges from two diffusion models trained independently on related domains. In light of this finding, we propose CycleDiffusion, which uses DPM-Encoder for unpaired image-to-image translation. Furthermore, applying CycleDiffusion to text-to-image diffusion models, we show that large-scale text-to-image diffusion models can be used as zero-shot image-to-image editors. (2) One can guide pre-trained diffusion models and GANs by controlling the latent codes in a unified, plug-and-play formulation based on energy-based models. Using the CLIP model and a face recognition model as guidance, we demonstrate that diffusion models have better coverage of low-density sub-populations and individuals than GANs. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/ChenWu98/cycle-diffusion.

3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) has gained significant attention for 3D scene reconstruction, but still suffers from complex outdoor environments, especially under adverse weather. This is because 3DGS treats the artifacts caused by adverse weather as part of the scene and will directly reconstruct them, largely reducing the clarity of the reconstructed scene. To address this challenge, we propose WeatherGS, a 3DGS-based framework for reconstructing clear scenes from multi-view images under different weather conditions. Specifically, we explicitly categorize the multi-weather artifacts into the dense particles and lens occlusions that have very different characters, in which the former are caused by snowflakes and raindrops in the air, and the latter are raised by the precipitation on the camera lens. In light of this, we propose a dense-to-sparse preprocess strategy, which sequentially removes the dense particles by an Atmospheric Effect Filter (AEF) and then extracts the relatively sparse occlusion masks with a Lens Effect Detector (LED). Finally, we train a set of 3D Gaussians by the processed images and generated masks for excluding occluded areas, and accurately recover the underlying clear scene by Gaussian splatting. We conduct a diverse and challenging benchmark to facilitate the evaluation of 3D reconstruction under complex weather scenarios. Extensive experiments on this benchmark demonstrate that our WeatherGS consistently produces high-quality, clean scenes across various weather scenarios, outperforming existing state-of-the-art methods. See project page:https://jumponthemoon.github.io/weather-gs.

Empowerment has the potential to help agents learn large skillsets, but is not yet a scalable solution for training general-purpose agents. Recent empowerment methods learn diverse skillsets by maximizing the mutual information between skills and states; however, these approaches require a model of the transition dynamics, which can be challenging to learn in realistic settings with high-dimensional and stochastic observations. We present Latent-Predictive Empowerment (LPE), an algorithm that can compute empowerment in a more practical manner. LPE learns large skillsets by maximizing an objective that is a principled replacement for the mutual information between skills and states and that only requires a simpler latent-predictive model rather than a full simulator of the environment. We show empirically in a variety of settings--including ones with high-dimensional observations and highly stochastic transition dynamics--that our empowerment objective (i) learns similar-sized skillsets as the leading empowerment algorithm that assumes access to a model of the transition dynamics and (ii) outperforms other model-based approaches to empowerment.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive reasoning capabilities, especially when guided by explicit chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning that verbalizes intermediate steps. While CoT improves both interpretability and accuracy, its dependence on natural language reasoning limits the model's expressive bandwidth. Latent reasoning tackles this bottleneck by performing multi-step inference entirely in the model's continuous hidden state, eliminating token-level supervision. To advance latent reasoning research, this survey provides a comprehensive overview of the emerging field of latent reasoning. We begin by examining the foundational role of neural network layers as the computational substrate for reasoning, highlighting how hierarchical representations support complex transformations. Next, we explore diverse latent reasoning methodologies, including activation-based recurrence, hidden state propagation, and fine-tuning strategies that compress or internalize explicit reasoning traces. Finally, we discuss advanced paradigms such as infinite-depth latent reasoning via masked diffusion models, which enable globally consistent and reversible reasoning processes. By unifying these perspectives, we aim to clarify the conceptual landscape of latent reasoning and chart future directions for research at the frontier of LLM cognition. An associated GitHub repository collecting the latest papers and repos is available at: https://github.com/multimodal-art-projection/LatentCoT-Horizon/.

Causal representation learning has showed a variety of settings in which we can disentangle latent variables with identifiability guarantees (up to some reasonable equivalence class). Common to all of these approaches is the assumption that (1) the latent variables are represented as d-dimensional vectors, and (2) that the observations are the output of some injective generative function of these latent variables. While these assumptions appear benign, we show that when the observations are of multiple objects, the generative function is no longer injective and disentanglement fails in practice. We can address this failure by combining recent developments in object-centric learning and causal representation learning. By modifying the Slot Attention architecture arXiv:2006.15055, we develop an object-centric architecture that leverages weak supervision from sparse perturbations to disentangle each object's properties. This approach is more data-efficient in the sense that it requires significantly fewer perturbations than a comparable approach that encodes to a Euclidean space and we show that this approach successfully disentangles the properties of a set of objects in a series of simple image-based disentanglement experiments.

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate strong reasoning abilities with chain-of-thought prompting, but explicit reasoning introduces substantial computational overhead. Recent work on latent reasoning reduces this cost by reasoning in latent space without explicit supervision, but performance drops significantly. Our preliminary experiments suggest that this degradation stems from the unstructured latent space, which makes fitting latent tokens difficult. To address this, we restrict the latent space to the column space of the LLM vocabulary, treating latent reasoning as a superposition over vocabulary probabilities. Once latent reasoning concludes, it collapses into an eigenstate of explicit reasoning to yield the final answer. Based on this idea, we propose Latent-SFT, a two-stage learning framework. In the first stage, we design two specialized attention masks to guide the Latent Token Encoder in generating latent tokens, allowing the LLM to produce the correct answer conditioned on them. In the second stage, the Latent Token Encoder is discarded, and the LLM is directly trained to generate these latent tokens autonomously for latent reasoning, optimized with KL and CE losses. Latent-SFT sets a new state of the art on GSM8k, matching explicit SFT performance while cutting reasoning chains by up to 4 times and outperforming prior latent methods. On Math500 and AIME24, lexical probability-based latent reasoning also clearly surpasses hidden-state-based approaches. Our metrics of effective compression rate and effective global parallelism further show that latent reasoning is both the compression of a single path and the superposition of multiple paths.

Performing recognition tasks using latent fingerprint samples is often challenging for automated identification systems due to poor quality, distortion, and partially missing information from the input samples. We propose a direct latent fingerprint reconstruction model based on conditional generative adversarial networks (cGANs). Two modifications are applied to the cGAN to adapt it for the task of latent fingerprint reconstruction. First, the model is forced to generate three additional maps to the ridge map to ensure that the orientation and frequency information is considered in the generation process, and prevent the model from filling large missing areas and generating erroneous minutiae. Second, a perceptual ID preservation approach is developed to force the generator to preserve the ID information during the reconstruction process. Using a synthetically generated database of latent fingerprints, the deep network learns to predict missing information from the input latent samples. We evaluate the proposed method in combination with two different fingerprint matching algorithms on several publicly available latent fingerprint datasets. We achieved the rank-10 accuracy of 88.02\% on the IIIT-Delhi latent fingerprint database for the task of latent-to-latent matching and rank-50 accuracy of 70.89\% on the IIIT-Delhi MOLF database for the task of latent-to-sensor matching. Experimental results of matching reconstructed samples in both latent-to-sensor and latent-to-latent frameworks indicate that the proposed method significantly increases the matching accuracy of the fingerprint recognition systems for the latent samples.

Air pollution poses a significant threat to public health and well-being, particularly in urban areas. This study introduces a series of machine-learning models that integrate data from the Sentinel-5P satellite, meteorological conditions, and topological characteristics to forecast future levels of five major pollutants. The investigation delineates the process of data collection, detailing the combination of diverse data sources utilized in the study. Through experiments conducted in the Milan metropolitan area, the models demonstrate their efficacy in predicting pollutant levels for the forthcoming day, achieving a percentage error of around 30%. The proposed models are advantageous as they are independent of monitoring stations, facilitating their use in areas without existing infrastructure. Additionally, we have released the collected dataset to the public, aiming to stimulate further research in this field. This research contributes to advancing our understanding of urban air quality dynamics and emphasizes the importance of amalgamating satellite, meteorological, and topographical data to develop robust pollution forecasting models.

The Copernicus Regional Reanalysis for Europe, CERRA, is a high-resolution regional reanalysis dataset for the European domain. In recent years it has shown significant utility across various climate-related tasks, ranging from forecasting and climate change research to renewable energy prediction, resource management, air quality risk assessment, and the forecasting of rare events, among others. Unfortunately, the availability of CERRA is lagging two years behind the current date, due to constraints in acquiring the requisite external data and the intensive computational demands inherent in its generation. As a solution, this paper introduces a novel method using diffusion models to approximate CERRA downscaling in a data-driven manner, without additional informations. By leveraging the lower resolution ERA5 dataset, which provides boundary conditions for CERRA, we approach this as a super-resolution task. Focusing on wind speed around Italy, our model, trained on existing CERRA data, shows promising results, closely mirroring original CERRA data. Validation with in-situ observations further confirms the model's accuracy in approximating ground measurements.

This paper proposes a hierarchical generative model with a multi-grained latent variable to synthesize expressive speech. In recent years, fine-grained latent variables are introduced into the text-to-speech synthesis that enable the fine control of the prosody and speaking styles of synthesized speech. However, the naturalness of speech degrades when these latent variables are obtained by sampling from the standard Gaussian prior. To solve this problem, we propose a novel framework for modeling the fine-grained latent variables, considering the dependence on an input text, a hierarchical linguistic structure, and a temporal structure of latent variables. This framework consists of a multi-grained variational autoencoder, a conditional prior, and a multi-level auto-regressive latent converter to obtain the different time-resolution latent variables and sample the finer-level latent variables from the coarser-level ones by taking into account the input text. Experimental results indicate an appropriate method of sampling fine-grained latent variables without the reference signal at the synthesis stage. Our proposed framework also provides the controllability of speaking style in an entire utterance.

The posterior collapse phenomenon in variational autoencoder (VAE), where the variational posterior distribution closely matches the prior distribution, can hinder the quality of the learned latent variables. As a consequence of posterior collapse, the latent variables extracted by the encoder in VAE preserve less information from the input data and thus fail to produce meaningful representations as input to the reconstruction process in the decoder. While this phenomenon has been an actively addressed topic related to VAE performance, the theory for posterior collapse remains underdeveloped, especially beyond the standard VAE. In this work, we advance the theoretical understanding of posterior collapse to two important and prevalent yet less studied classes of VAE: conditional VAE and hierarchical VAE. Specifically, via a non-trivial theoretical analysis of linear conditional VAE and hierarchical VAE with two levels of latent, we prove that the cause of posterior collapses in these models includes the correlation between the input and output of the conditional VAE and the effect of learnable encoder variance in the hierarchical VAE. We empirically validate our theoretical findings for linear conditional and hierarchical VAE and demonstrate that these results are also predictive for non-linear cases with extensive experiments.

Bayesian Neural Networks with Latent Variables (BNN+LVs) capture predictive uncertainty by explicitly modeling model uncertainty (via priors on network weights) and environmental stochasticity (via a latent input noise variable). In this work, we first show that BNN+LV suffers from a serious form of non-identifiability: explanatory power can be transferred between the model parameters and latent variables while fitting the data equally well. We demonstrate that as a result, in the limit of infinite data, the posterior mode over the network weights and latent variables is asymptotically biased away from the ground-truth. Due to this asymptotic bias, traditional inference methods may in practice yield parameters that generalize poorly and misestimate uncertainty. Next, we develop a novel inference procedure that explicitly mitigates the effects of likelihood non-identifiability during training and yields high-quality predictions as well as uncertainty estimates. We demonstrate that our inference method improves upon benchmark methods across a range of synthetic and real data-sets.

In recent years, analysis of remote sensing data has benefited immensely from borrowing techniques from the broader field of computer vision, such as the use of shared models pre-trained on large and diverse datasets. However, satellite imagery has unique features that are not accounted for in traditional computer vision, such as the existence of multiple revisits of the same location. Here, we explore the best way to use revisits in the framework of fine-tuning pre-trained remote sensing models. We focus on an applied research question of relevance to climate change mitigation -- power substation segmentation -- that is representative of applied uses of pre-trained models more generally. Through extensive tests of different multi-temporal input schemes across diverse model architectures, we find that fusing representations from multiple revisits in the model latent space is superior to other methods of using revisits, including as a form of data augmentation. We also find that a SWIN Transformer-based architecture performs better than U-nets and ViT-based models. We verify the generality of our results on a separate building density estimation task.

Modern generative models demonstrate impressive capabilities, likely stemming from an ability to identify and manipulate abstract concepts underlying their training data. However, fundamental questions remain: what determines the concepts a model learns, the order in which it learns them, and its ability to manipulate those concepts? To address these questions, we propose analyzing a model's learning dynamics via a framework we call the concept space, where each axis represents an independent concept underlying the data generating process. By characterizing learning dynamics in this space, we identify how the speed at which a concept is learned, and hence the order of concept learning, is controlled by properties of the data we term concept signal. Further, we observe moments of sudden turns in the direction of a model's learning dynamics in concept space. Surprisingly, these points precisely correspond to the emergence of hidden capabilities, i.e., where latent interventions show the model possesses the capability to manipulate a concept, but these capabilities cannot yet be elicited via naive input prompting. While our results focus on synthetically defined toy datasets, we hypothesize a general claim on emergence of hidden capabilities may hold: generative models possess latent capabilities that emerge suddenly and consistently during training, though a model might not exhibit these capabilities under naive input prompting.

Global climate models typically operate at a grid resolution of hundreds of kilometers and fail to resolve atmospheric mesoscale processes, e.g., clouds, precipitation, and gravity waves (GWs). Model representation of these processes and their sources is essential to the global circulation and planetary energy budget, but subgrid scale contributions from these processes are often only approximately represented in models using parameterizations. These parameterizations are subject to approximations and idealizations, which limit their capability and accuracy. The most drastic of these approximations is the "single-column approximation" which completely neglects the horizontal evolution of these processes, resulting in key biases in current climate models. With a focus on atmospheric GWs, we present the first-ever global simulation of atmospheric GW fluxes using machine learning (ML) models trained on the WINDSET dataset to emulate global GW emulation in the atmosphere, as an alternative to traditional single-column parameterizations. Using an Attention U-Net-based architecture trained on globally resolved GW momentum fluxes, we illustrate the importance and effectiveness of global nonlocality, when simulating GWs using data-driven schemes.

Diffusion models are the standard toolkit for generative modelling of 3D atomic systems. However, for different types of atomic systems - such as molecules and materials - the generative processes are usually highly specific to the target system despite the underlying physics being the same. We introduce the All-atom Diffusion Transformer (ADiT), a unified latent diffusion framework for jointly generating both periodic materials and non-periodic molecular systems using the same model: (1) An autoencoder maps a unified, all-atom representations of molecules and materials to a shared latent embedding space; and (2) A diffusion model is trained to generate new latent embeddings that the autoencoder can decode to sample new molecules or materials. Experiments on QM9 and MP20 datasets demonstrate that jointly trained ADiT generates realistic and valid molecules as well as materials, exceeding state-of-the-art results from molecule and crystal-specific models. ADiT uses standard Transformers for both the autoencoder and diffusion model, resulting in significant speedups during training and inference compared to equivariant diffusion models. Scaling ADiT up to half a billion parameters predictably improves performance, representing a step towards broadly generalizable foundation models for generative chemistry. Open source code: https://github.com/facebookresearch/all-atom-diffusion-transformer

We present a unified framework for studying the identifiability of representations learned from simultaneously observed views, such as different data modalities. We allow a partially observed setting in which each view constitutes a nonlinear mixture of a subset of underlying latent variables, which can be causally related. We prove that the information shared across all subsets of any number of views can be learned up to a smooth bijection using contrastive learning and a single encoder per view. We also provide graphical criteria indicating which latent variables can be identified through a simple set of rules, which we refer to as identifiability algebra. Our general framework and theoretical results unify and extend several previous works on multi-view nonlinear ICA, disentanglement, and causal representation learning. We experimentally validate our claims on numerical, image, and multi-modal data sets. Further, we demonstrate that the performance of prior methods is recovered in different special cases of our setup. Overall, we find that access to multiple partial views enables us to identify a more fine-grained representation, under the generally milder assumption of partial observability.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have introduced latent reasoning as a promising alternative to autoregressive reasoning. By performing internal computation with hidden states from previous steps, latent reasoning benefit from more informative features rather than sampling a discrete chain-of-thought (CoT) path. Yet latent reasoning approaches are often incompatible with LLMs, as their continuous paradigm conflicts with the discrete nature of autoregressive generation. Moreover, these methods rely on CoT traces for training and thus fail to exploit the inherent reasoning patterns of LLMs. In this work, we explore latent reasoning by leveraging the intrinsic capabilities of LLMs via reinforcement learning (RL). To this end, we introduce hybrid reasoning policy optimization (HRPO), an RL-based hybrid latent reasoning approach that (1) integrates prior hidden states into sampled tokens with a learnable gating mechanism, and (2) initializes training with predominantly token embeddings while progressively incorporating more hidden features. This design maintains LLMs' generative capabilities and incentivizes hybrid reasoning using both discrete and continuous representations. In addition, the hybrid HRPO introduces stochasticity into latent reasoning via token sampling, thereby enabling RL-based optimization without requiring CoT trajectories. Extensive evaluations across diverse benchmarks show that HRPO outperforms prior methods in both knowledge- and reasoning-intensive tasks. Furthermore, HRPO-trained LLMs remain interpretable and exhibit intriguing behaviors like cross-lingual patterns and shorter completion lengths, highlighting the potential of our RL-based approach and offer insights for future work in latent reasoning.

Recent advances in large language models have demonstrated impressive capabilities in task-oriented applications, yet building emotionally intelligent chatbots that can engage in natural, strategic conversations remains a challenge. We present a novel approach called SAGE that uses latent variables to control long-horizon behavior in dialogue generation. At the core of our method is the State-Action Chain (SAC), which augments standard language model fine-tuning by introducing latent variables that encapsulate emotional states and conversational strategies between dialogue turns. During inference, these variables are generated before each response, enabling coarse-grained control over dialogue progression while maintaining natural interaction patterns. We also introduce a self-improvement pipeline that leverages dialogue tree search, LLM-based reward modeling, and targeted fine-tuning to optimize conversational trajectories. Our experimental results show that models trained with this approach demonstrate improved performance in emotional intelligence metrics while maintaining strong capabilities on LLM benchmarks. The discrete nature of our latent variables facilitates search-based strategies and provides a foundation for future applications of reinforcement learning to dialogue systems, where learning can occur at the state level rather than the token level.

The accessibility of spatially distributed data, enabled by affordable sensors, field, and numerical experiments, has facilitated the development of data-driven solutions for scientific problems, including climate change, weather prediction, and urban planning. Neural Partial Differential Equations (Neural PDEs), which combine deep learning (DL) techniques with domain expertise (e.g., governing equations) for parameterization, have proven to be effective in capturing valuable correlations within spatiotemporal datasets. However, sparse and noisy measurements coupled with modeling approximation introduce aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. Therefore, quantifying uncertainties propagated from model inputs to outputs remains a challenge and an essential goal for establishing the trustworthiness of Neural PDEs. This work evaluates various Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) approaches for both Forward and Inverse Problems in scientific applications. Specifically, we investigate the effectiveness of Bayesian methods, such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and Monte-Carlo Dropout (MCD), and a more conventional approach, Deep Ensembles (DE). To illustrate their performance, we take two canonical PDEs: Burger's equation and the Navier-Stokes equation. Our results indicate that Neural PDEs can effectively reconstruct flow systems and predict the associated unknown parameters. However, it is noteworthy that the results derived from Bayesian methods, based on our observations, tend to display a higher degree of certainty in their predictions as compared to those obtained using the DE. This elevated certainty in predictions suggests that Bayesian techniques might underestimate the true underlying uncertainty, thereby appearing more confident in their predictions than the DE approach.

Latent diffusion models (LDMs) power state-of-the-art high-resolution generative image models. LDMs learn the data distribution in the latent space of an autoencoder (AE) and produce images by mapping the generated latents into RGB image space using the AE decoder. While this approach allows for efficient model training and sampling, it induces a disconnect between the training of the diffusion model and the decoder, resulting in a loss of detail in the generated images. To remediate this disconnect, we propose to leverage the internal features of the decoder to define a latent perceptual loss (LPL). This loss encourages the models to create sharper and more realistic images. Our loss can be seamlessly integrated with common autoencoders used in latent diffusion models, and can be applied to different generative modeling paradigms such as DDPM with epsilon and velocity prediction, as well as flow matching. Extensive experiments with models trained on three datasets at 256 and 512 resolution show improved quantitative -- with boosts between 6% and 20% in FID -- and qualitative results when using our perceptual loss.

Learning the tail behavior of a distribution is a notoriously difficult problem. By definition, the number of samples from the tail is small, and deep generative models, such as normalizing flows, tend to concentrate on learning the body of the distribution. In this paper, we focus on improving the ability of normalizing flows to correctly capture the tail behavior and, thus, form more accurate models. We prove that the marginal tailedness of an autoregressive flow can be controlled via the tailedness of the marginals of its base distribution. This theoretical insight leads us to a novel type of flows based on flexible base distributions and data-driven linear layers. An empirical analysis shows that the proposed method improves on the accuracy -- especially on the tails of the distribution -- and is able to generate heavy-tailed data. We demonstrate its application on a weather and climate example, in which capturing the tail behavior is essential.

This paper presents a Bayesian nonparametric latent feature model specially suitable for exploratory analysis of high-dimensional count data. We perform a non-negative doubly sparse matrix factorization that has two main advantages: not only we are able to better approximate the row input distributions, but the inferred topics are also easier to interpret. By combining the three-parameter and restricted Indian buffet processes into a single prior, we increase the model flexibility, allowing for a full spectrum of sparse solutions in the latent space. We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach in the analysis of countries' economic structure. Compared to other approaches, empirical results show our model's ability to give easy-to-interpret information and better capture the underlying sparsity structure of data.

Koopman representations aim to learn features of nonlinear dynamical systems (NLDS) which lead to linear dynamics in the latent space. Theoretically, such features can be used to simplify many problems in modeling and control of NLDS. In this work we study autoencoder formulations of this problem, and different ways they can be used to model dynamics, specifically for future state prediction over long horizons. We discover several limitations of predicting future states in the latent space and propose an inference-time mechanism, which we refer to as Periodic Reencoding, for faithfully capturing long term dynamics. We justify this method both analytically and empirically via experiments in low and high dimensional NLDS.

We introduce Bayesian Poisson Tucker decomposition (BPTD) for modeling country--country interaction event data. These data consist of interaction events of the form "country i took action a toward country j at time t." BPTD discovers overlapping country--community memberships, including the number of latent communities. In addition, it discovers directed community--community interaction networks that are specific to "topics" of action types and temporal "regimes." We show that BPTD yields an efficient MCMC inference algorithm and achieves better predictive performance than related models. We also demonstrate that it discovers interpretable latent structure that agrees with our knowledge of international relations.

Generating realistic time series data is important for many engineering and scientific applications. Existing work tackles this problem using generative adversarial networks (GANs). However, GANs are often unstable during training, and they can suffer from mode collapse. While variational autoencoders (VAEs) are known to be more robust to these issues, they are (surprisingly) less often considered for time series generation. In this work, we introduce Koopman VAE (KVAE), a new generative framework that is based on a novel design for the model prior, and that can be optimized for either regular and irregular training data. Inspired by Koopman theory, we represent the latent conditional prior dynamics using a linear map. Our approach enhances generative modeling with two desired features: (i) incorporating domain knowledge can be achieved by leverageing spectral tools that prescribe constraints on the eigenvalues of the linear map; and (ii) studying the qualitative behavior and stablity of the system can be performed using tools from dynamical systems theory. Our results show that KVAE outperforms state-of-the-art GAN and VAE methods across several challenging synthetic and real-world time series generation benchmarks. Whether trained on regular or irregular data, KVAE generates time series that improve both discriminative and predictive metrics. We also present visual evidence suggesting that KVAE learns probability density functions that better approximate empirical ground truth distributions.

The Jovian atmosphere contains a wide diversity of vortices, which have a large range of sizes, colors and forms in different dynamical regimes. The formation processes for these vortices is poorly understood, and aside from a few known, long-lived ovals, such as the Great Red Spot, and Oval BA, vortex stability and their temporal evolution are currently largely unknown. In this study, we use JunoCam data and a citizen-science project on Zooniverse to derive a catalog of vortices, some with repeated observations, through May 2018 to Sep 2021, and analyze their associated properties, such as size, location and color. We find that different colored vortices (binned as white, red, brown and dark), follow vastly different distributions in terms of their sizes and where they are found on the planet. We employ a simplified stability criterion using these vortices as a proxy, to derive a minimum Rossby deformation length for the planet of sim1800 km. We find that this value of L_d is largely constant throughout the atmosphere, and does not have an appreciable meridional gradient.

Storm-scale convection-allowing models (CAMs) are an important tool for predicting the evolution of thunderstorms and mesoscale convective systems that result in damaging extreme weather. By explicitly resolving convective dynamics within the atmosphere they afford meteorologists the nuance needed to provide outlook on hazard. Deep learning models have thus far not proven skilful at km-scale atmospheric simulation, despite being competitive at coarser resolution with state-of-the-art global, medium-range weather forecasting. We present a generative diffusion model called StormCast, which emulates the high-resolution rapid refresh (HRRR) model-NOAA's state-of-the-art 3km operational CAM. StormCast autoregressively predicts 99 state variables at km scale using a 1-hour time step, with dense vertical resolution in the atmospheric boundary layer, conditioned on 26 synoptic variables. We present evidence of successfully learnt km-scale dynamics including competitive 1-6 hour forecast skill for composite radar reflectivity alongside physically realistic convective cluster evolution, moist updrafts, and cold pool morphology. StormCast predictions maintain realistic power spectra for multiple predicted variables across multi-hour forecasts. Together, these results establish the potential for autoregressive ML to emulate CAMs -- opening up new km-scale frontiers for regional ML weather prediction and future climate hazard dynamical downscaling.

Accurately describing the distribution of CO_2 in the atmosphere with atmospheric tracer transport models is essential for greenhouse gas monitoring and verification support systems to aid implementation of international climate agreements. Large deep neural networks are poised to revolutionize weather prediction, which requires 3D modeling of the atmosphere. While similar in this regard, atmospheric transport modeling is subject to new challenges. Both, stable predictions for longer time horizons and mass conservation throughout need to be achieved, while IO plays a larger role compared to computational costs. In this study we explore four different deep neural networks (UNet, GraphCast, Spherical Fourier Neural Operator and SwinTransformer) which have proven as state-of-the-art in weather prediction to assess their usefulness for atmospheric tracer transport modeling. For this, we assemble the CarbonBench dataset, a systematic benchmark tailored for machine learning emulators of Eulerian atmospheric transport. Through architectural adjustments, we decouple the performance of our emulators from the distribution shift caused by a steady rise in atmospheric CO_2. More specifically, we center CO_2 input fields to zero mean and then use an explicit flux scheme and a mass fixer to assure mass balance. This design enables stable and mass conserving transport for over 6 months with all four neural network architectures. In our study, the SwinTransformer displays particularly strong emulation skill (90-day R^2 > 0.99), with physically plausible emulation even for forward runs of multiple years. This work paves the way forward towards high resolution forward and inverse modeling of inert trace gases with neural networks.

We introduce a new class of time-continuous recurrent neural network models. Instead of declaring a learning system's dynamics by implicit nonlinearities, we construct networks of linear first-order dynamical systems modulated via nonlinear interlinked gates. The resulting models represent dynamical systems with varying (i.e., liquid) time-constants coupled to their hidden state, with outputs being computed by numerical differential equation solvers. These neural networks exhibit stable and bounded behavior, yield superior expressivity within the family of neural ordinary differential equations, and give rise to improved performance on time-series prediction tasks. To demonstrate these properties, we first take a theoretical approach to find bounds over their dynamics and compute their expressive power by the trajectory length measure in latent trajectory space. We then conduct a series of time-series prediction experiments to manifest the approximation capability of Liquid Time-Constant Networks (LTCs) compared to classical and modern RNNs. Code and data are available at https://github.com/raminmh/liquid_time_constant_networks

Current works in the generation of personalized dialogue primarily contribute to the agent presenting a consistent personality and driving a more informative response. However, we found that the generated responses from most previous models tend to be self-centered, with little care for the user in the dialogue. Moreover, we consider that human-like conversation is essentially built based on inferring information about the persona of the other party. Motivated by this, we propose a novel personalized dialogue generator by detecting an implicit user persona. Because it is hard to collect a large number of detailed personas for each user, we attempted to model the user's potential persona and its representation from dialogue history, with no external knowledge. The perception and fader variables were conceived using conditional variational inference. The two latent variables simulate the process of people being aware of each other's persona and producing a corresponding expression in conversation. Finally, posterior-discriminated regularization was presented to enhance the training procedure. Empirical studies demonstrate that, compared to state-of-the-art methods, our approach is more concerned with the user's persona and achieves a considerable boost across the evaluations.

Existing ML-based atmospheric models are not suitable for climate prediction, which requires long-term stability and physical consistency. We present ACE (AI2 Climate Emulator), a 200M-parameter, autoregressive machine learning emulator of an existing comprehensive 100-km resolution global atmospheric model. The formulation of ACE allows evaluation of physical laws such as the conservation of mass and moisture. The emulator is stable for 100 years, nearly conserves column moisture without explicit constraints and faithfully reproduces the reference model's climate, outperforming a challenging baseline on over 90% of tracked variables. ACE requires nearly 100x less wall clock time and is 100x more energy efficient than the reference model using typically available resources. Without fine-tuning, ACE can stably generalize to a previously unseen historical sea surface temperature dataset.

Anomalies in the domain of autonomous driving are a major hindrance to the large-scale deployment of autonomous vehicles. In this work, we focus on high-resolution camera data from urban scenes that include anomalies of various types and sizes. Based on a Variational Autoencoder, we condition its latent space to classify samples as either normal data or anomalies. In order to emphasize especially small anomalies, we perform experiments where we provide the VAE with a discrepancy map as an additional input, evaluating its impact on the detection performance. Our method separates normal data and anomalies into isolated clusters while still reconstructing high-quality images, leading to meaningful latent representations.

Document clustering and topic modeling are two closely related tasks which can mutually benefit each other. Topic modeling can project documents into a topic space which facilitates effective document clustering. Cluster labels discovered by document clustering can be incorporated into topic models to extract local topics specific to each cluster and global topics shared by all clusters. In this paper, we propose a multi-grain clustering topic model (MGCTM) which integrates document clustering and topic modeling into a unified framework and jointly performs the two tasks to achieve the overall best performance. Our model tightly couples two components: a mixture component used for discovering latent groups in document collection and a topic model component used for mining multi-grain topics including local topics specific to each cluster and global topics shared across clusters.We employ variational inference to approximate the posterior of hidden variables and learn model parameters. Experiments on two datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our model.

Causal representation learning aims to unveil latent high-level causal representations from observed low-level data. One of its primary tasks is to provide reliable assurance of identifying these latent causal models, known as identifiability. A recent breakthrough explores identifiability by leveraging the change of causal influences among latent causal variables across multiple environments liu2022identifying. However, this progress rests on the assumption that the causal relationships among latent causal variables adhere strictly to linear Gaussian models. In this paper, we extend the scope of latent causal models to involve nonlinear causal relationships, represented by polynomial models, and general noise distributions conforming to the exponential family. Additionally, we investigate the necessity of imposing changes on all causal parameters and present partial identifiability results when part of them remains unchanged. Further, we propose a novel empirical estimation method, grounded in our theoretical finding, that enables learning consistent latent causal representations. Our experimental results, obtained from both synthetic and real-world data, validate our theoretical contributions concerning identifiability and consistency.

We provide an optimization-based framework to perform counterfactual analysis in a dynamic model with hidden states. Our framework is grounded in the ``abduction, action, and prediction'' approach to answer counterfactual queries and handles two key challenges where (1) the states are hidden and (2) the model is dynamic. Recognizing the lack of knowledge on the underlying causal mechanism and the possibility of infinitely many such mechanisms, we optimize over this space and compute upper and lower bounds on the counterfactual quantity of interest. Our work brings together ideas from causality, state-space models, simulation, and optimization, and we apply it on a breast cancer case study. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to compute lower and upper bounds on a counterfactual query in a dynamic latent-state model.

3D molecule generation is crucial for drug discovery and material science, requiring models to process complex multi-modalities, including atom types, chemical bonds, and 3D coordinates. A key challenge is integrating these modalities of different shapes while maintaining SE(3) equivariance for 3D coordinates. To achieve this, existing approaches typically maintain separate latent spaces for invariant and equivariant modalities, reducing efficiency in both training and sampling. In this work, we propose Unified Variational Auto-Encoder for 3D Molecular Latent Diffusion Modeling (UAE-3D), a multi-modal VAE that compresses 3D molecules into latent sequences from a unified latent space, while maintaining near-zero reconstruction error. This unified latent space eliminates the complexities of handling multi-modality and equivariance when performing latent diffusion modeling. We demonstrate this by employing the Diffusion Transformer--a general-purpose diffusion model without any molecular inductive bias--for latent generation. Extensive experiments on GEOM-Drugs and QM9 datasets demonstrate that our method significantly establishes new benchmarks in both de novo and conditional 3D molecule generation, achieving leading efficiency and quality.

We introduce a single-view reconstruction technique of volumetric fields in which multiple light scattering effects are omnipresent, such as in clouds. We model the unknown distribution of volumetric fields using an unconditional diffusion model trained on a novel benchmark dataset comprising 1,000 synthetically simulated volumetric density fields. The neural diffusion model is trained on the latent codes of a novel, diffusion-friendly, monoplanar representation. The generative model is used to incorporate a tailored parametric diffusion posterior sampling technique into different reconstruction tasks. A physically-based differentiable volume renderer is employed to provide gradients with respect to light transport in the latent space. This stands in contrast to classic NeRF approaches and makes the reconstructions better aligned with observed data. Through various experiments, we demonstrate single-view reconstruction of volumetric clouds at a previously unattainable quality.

Traffic cameras are commonly deployed monitoring components in road infrastructure networks, providing operators visual information about conditions at critical points in the network. However, human observers are often limited in their ability to process simultaneous information sources. Recent advancements in computer vision, driven by deep learning methods, have enabled general object recognition, unlocking opportunities for camera-based sensing beyond the existing human observer paradigm. In this paper, we present a Natural Language Processing (NLP)-inspired approach, entitled Bag-of-Label-Words (BoLW), for analyzing image data sets using exclusively textual labels. The BoLW model represents the data in a conventional matrix form, enabling data compression and decomposition techniques, while preserving semantic interpretability. We apply the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic model to decompose the label data into a small number of semantic topics. To illustrate our approach, we use freeway camera images collected from the Boston area between December 2017-January 2018. We analyze the cameras' sensitivity to weather events; identify temporal traffic patterns; and analyze the impact of infrequent events, such as the winter holidays and the "bomb cyclone" winter storm. This study demonstrates the flexibility of our approach, which allows us to analyze weather events and freeway traffic using only traffic camera image labels.

We present a latent diffusion model over 3D scenes, that can be trained using only 2D image data. To achieve this, we first design an autoencoder that maps multi-view images to 3D Gaussian splats, and simultaneously builds a compressed latent representation of these splats. Then, we train a multi-view diffusion model over the latent space to learn an efficient generative model. This pipeline does not require object masks nor depths, and is suitable for complex scenes with arbitrary camera positions. We conduct careful experiments on two large-scale datasets of complex real-world scenes -- MVImgNet and RealEstate10K. We show that our approach enables generating 3D scenes in as little as 0.2 seconds, either from scratch, from a single input view, or from sparse input views. It produces diverse and high-quality results while running an order of magnitude faster than non-latent diffusion models and earlier NeRF-based generative models

Deep learning-based models for All-In-One Image Restoration (AIOR) have achieved significant advancements in recent years. However, their practical applicability is limited by poor generalization to samples outside the training distribution. This limitation arises primarily from insufficient diversity in degradation variations and scenes within existing datasets, resulting in inadequate representations of real-world scenarios. Additionally, capturing large-scale real-world paired data for degradations such as haze, low-light, and raindrops is often cumbersome and sometimes infeasible. In this paper, we leverage the generative capabilities of latent diffusion models to synthesize high-quality degraded images from their clean counterparts. Specifically, we introduce GenDeg, a degradation and intensity-aware conditional diffusion model capable of producing diverse degradation patterns on clean images. Using GenDeg, we synthesize over 550k samples across six degradation types: haze, rain, snow, motion blur, low-light, and raindrops. These generated samples are integrated with existing datasets to form the GenDS dataset, comprising over 750k samples. Our experiments reveal that image restoration models trained on the GenDS dataset exhibit significant improvements in out-of-distribution performance compared to those trained solely on existing datasets. Furthermore, we provide comprehensive analyses on the implications of diffusion model-based synthetic degradations for AIOR. The code will be made publicly available.

Air pollution remains a leading global health risk, exacerbated by rapid industrialization and urbanization, contributing significantly to morbidity and mortality rates. In this paper, we introduce AirCast, a novel multi-variable air pollution forecasting model, by combining weather and air quality variables. AirCast employs a multi-task head architecture that simultaneously forecasts atmospheric conditions and pollutant concentrations, improving its understanding of how weather patterns affect air quality. Predicting extreme pollution events is challenging due to their rare occurrence in historic data, resulting in a heavy-tailed distribution of pollution levels. To address this, we propose a novel Frequency-weighted Mean Absolute Error (fMAE) loss, adapted from the class-balanced loss for regression tasks. Informed from domain knowledge, we investigate the selection of key variables known to influence pollution levels. Additionally, we align existing weather and chemical datasets across spatial and temporal dimensions. AirCast's integrated approach, combining multi-task learning, frequency weighted loss and domain informed variable selection, enables more accurate pollution forecasts. Our source code and models are made public here (https://github.com/vishalned/AirCast.git)

Given a set of K probability densities, we consider the multimarginal generative modeling problem of learning a joint distribution that recovers these densities as marginals. The structure of this joint distribution should identify multi-way correspondences among the prescribed marginals. We formalize an approach to this task within a generalization of the stochastic interpolant framework, leading to efficient learning algorithms built upon dynamical transport of measure. Our generative models are defined by velocity and score fields that can be characterized as the minimizers of simple quadratic objectives, and they are defined on a simplex that generalizes the time variable in the usual dynamical transport framework. The resulting transport on the simplex is influenced by all marginals, and we show that multi-way correspondences can be extracted. The identification of such correspondences has applications to style transfer, algorithmic fairness, and data decorruption. In addition, the multimarginal perspective enables an efficient algorithm for reducing the dynamical transport cost in the ordinary two-marginal setting. We demonstrate these capacities with several numerical examples.

Representation learning and exploration are among the key challenges for any deep reinforcement learning agent. In this work, we provide a singular value decomposition based method that can be used to obtain representations that preserve the underlying transition structure in the domain. Perhaps interestingly, we show that these representations also capture the relative frequency of state visitations, thereby providing an estimate for pseudo-counts for free. To scale this decomposition method to large-scale domains, we provide an algorithm that never requires building the transition matrix, can make use of deep networks, and also permits mini-batch training. Further, we draw inspiration from predictive state representations and extend our decomposition method to partially observable environments. With experiments on multi-task settings with partially observable domains, we show that the proposed method can not only learn useful representation on DM-Lab-30 environments (that have inputs involving language instructions, pixel images, and rewards, among others) but it can also be effective at hard exploration tasks in DM-Hard-8 environments.