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Dec 2

PACE-LM: Prompting and Augmentation for Calibrated Confidence Estimation with GPT-4 in Cloud Incident Root Cause Analysis

Major cloud providers have employed advanced AI-based solutions like large language models to aid humans in identifying the root causes of cloud incidents. Despite the growing prevalence of AI-driven assistants in the root cause analysis process, their effectiveness in assisting on-call engineers is constrained by low accuracy due to the intrinsic difficulty of the task, a propensity for LLM-based approaches to hallucinate, and difficulties in distinguishing these well-disguised hallucinations. To address this challenge, we propose to perform confidence estimation for the predictions to help on-call engineers make decisions on whether to adopt the model prediction. Considering the black-box nature of many LLM-based root cause predictors, fine-tuning or temperature-scaling-based approaches are inapplicable. We therefore design an innovative confidence estimation framework based on prompting retrieval-augmented large language models (LLMs) that demand a minimal amount of information from the root cause predictor. This approach consists of two scoring phases: the LLM-based confidence estimator first evaluates its confidence in making judgments in the face of the current incident that reflects its ``grounded-ness" level in reference data, then rates the root cause prediction based on historical references. An optimization step combines these two scores for a final confidence assignment. We show that our method is able to produce calibrated confidence estimates for predicted root causes, validate the usefulness of retrieved historical data and the prompting strategy as well as the generalizability across different root cause prediction models. Our study takes an important move towards reliably and effectively embedding LLMs into cloud incident management systems.

  • 6 authors
·
Sep 11, 2023

A Critical Review of Recurrent Neural Networks for Sequence Learning

Countless learning tasks require dealing with sequential data. Image captioning, speech synthesis, and music generation all require that a model produce outputs that are sequences. In other domains, such as time series prediction, video analysis, and musical information retrieval, a model must learn from inputs that are sequences. Interactive tasks, such as translating natural language, engaging in dialogue, and controlling a robot, often demand both capabilities. Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are connectionist models that capture the dynamics of sequences via cycles in the network of nodes. Unlike standard feedforward neural networks, recurrent networks retain a state that can represent information from an arbitrarily long context window. Although recurrent neural networks have traditionally been difficult to train, and often contain millions of parameters, recent advances in network architectures, optimization techniques, and parallel computation have enabled successful large-scale learning with them. In recent years, systems based on long short-term memory (LSTM) and bidirectional (BRNN) architectures have demonstrated ground-breaking performance on tasks as varied as image captioning, language translation, and handwriting recognition. In this survey, we review and synthesize the research that over the past three decades first yielded and then made practical these powerful learning models. When appropriate, we reconcile conflicting notation and nomenclature. Our goal is to provide a self-contained explication of the state of the art together with a historical perspective and references to primary research.

  • 3 authors
·
May 29, 2015

NER4all or Context is All You Need: Using LLMs for low-effort, high-performance NER on historical texts. A humanities informed approach

Named entity recognition (NER) is a core task for historical research in automatically establishing all references to people, places, events and the like. Yet, do to the high linguistic and genre diversity of sources, only limited canonisation of spellings, the level of required historical domain knowledge, and the scarcity of annotated training data, established approaches to natural language processing (NLP) have been both extremely expensive and yielded only unsatisfactory results in terms of recall and precision. Our paper introduces a new approach. We demonstrate how readily-available, state-of-the-art LLMs significantly outperform two leading NLP frameworks, spaCy and flair, for NER in historical documents by seven to twentytwo percent higher F1-Scores. Our ablation study shows how providing historical context to the task and a bit of persona modelling that turns focus away from a purely linguistic approach are core to a successful prompting strategy. We also demonstrate that, contrary to our expectations, providing increasing numbers of examples in few-shot approaches does not improve recall or precision below a threshold of 16-shot. In consequence, our approach democratises access to NER for all historians by removing the barrier of scripting languages and computational skills required for established NLP tools and instead leveraging natural language prompts and consumer-grade tools and frontends.

P-RAG: Progressive Retrieval Augmented Generation For Planning on Embodied Everyday Task

Embodied Everyday Task is a popular task in the embodied AI community, requiring agents to make a sequence of actions based on natural language instructions and visual observations. Traditional learning-based approaches face two challenges. Firstly, natural language instructions often lack explicit task planning. Secondly, extensive training is required to equip models with knowledge of the task environment. Previous works based on Large Language Model (LLM) either suffer from poor performance due to the lack of task-specific knowledge or rely on ground truth as few-shot samples. To address the above limitations, we propose a novel approach called Progressive Retrieval Augmented Generation (P-RAG), which not only effectively leverages the powerful language processing capabilities of LLMs but also progressively accumulates task-specific knowledge without ground-truth. Compared to the conventional RAG methods, which retrieve relevant information from the database in a one-shot manner to assist generation, P-RAG introduces an iterative approach to progressively update the database. In each iteration, P-RAG retrieves the latest database and obtains historical information from the previous interaction as experiential references for the current interaction. Moreover, we also introduce a more granular retrieval scheme that not only retrieves similar tasks but also incorporates retrieval of similar situations to provide more valuable reference experiences. Extensive experiments reveal that P-RAG achieves competitive results without utilizing ground truth and can even further improve performance through self-iterations.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 17, 2024

Optimus-1: Hybrid Multimodal Memory Empowered Agents Excel in Long-Horizon Tasks

Building a general-purpose agent is a long-standing vision in the field of artificial intelligence. Existing agents have made remarkable progress in many domains, yet they still struggle to complete long-horizon tasks in an open world. We attribute this to the lack of necessary world knowledge and multimodal experience that can guide agents through a variety of long-horizon tasks. In this paper, we propose a Hybrid Multimodal Memory module to address the above challenges. It 1) transforms knowledge into Hierarchical Directed Knowledge Graph that allows agents to explicitly represent and learn world knowledge, and 2) summarises historical information into Abstracted Multimodal Experience Pool that provide agents with rich references for in-context learning. On top of the Hybrid Multimodal Memory module, a multimodal agent, Optimus-1, is constructed with dedicated Knowledge-guided Planner and Experience-Driven Reflector, contributing to a better planning and reflection in the face of long-horizon tasks in Minecraft. Extensive experimental results show that Optimus-1 significantly outperforms all existing agents on challenging long-horizon task benchmarks, and exhibits near human-level performance on many tasks. In addition, we introduce various Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) as the backbone of Optimus-1. Experimental results show that Optimus-1 exhibits strong generalization with the help of the Hybrid Multimodal Memory module, outperforming the GPT-4V baseline on many tasks.

  • 6 authors
·
Aug 7, 2024 2

Applying the ACE2 Emulator to SST Green's Functions for the E3SMv3 Climate Model

Green's functions are a useful technique for interpreting atmospheric state responses to changes in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature (SST). Here we train version 2 of the Ai2 Climate Emulator (ACE2) on reference historical SST simulations of the US Department of Energy's EAMv3 global atmosphere model. We compare how well the SST Green's functions generated by ACE2 match those of EAMv3, following the protocol of the Green's Function Model Intercomparison Project (GFMIP). The spatial patterns of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative response from the individual GFMIP SST patch simulations are similar for ACE and the EAMv3 reference. The derived sensitivity of global net TOA radiation sensitivity to SST patch location is qualitatively similar in ACE as in EAMv3, but there are statistically significant discrepancies for some SST patches, especially over the subtropical northeast Pacific. These discrepancies may reflect insufficient diversity in the SST patterns sampled over the course of the EAMv3 AMIP simulation used for training ACE. Both ACE and EAMv3 Green's functions reconstruct the historical record of the global annual-mean TOA radiative flux from a reference EAMv3 AMIP simulation reasonably well. Notably, under our configuration and compute resources, ACE achieves these results approximately 100 times faster in wall-clock time compared to EAMv3, highlighting its potential as a powerful and efficient tool for tackling other computationally intensive problems in climate science.

  • 8 authors
·
May 13

Controllable Reference Guided Diffusion with Local Global Fusion for Real World Remote Sensing Image Super Resolution

Super resolution techniques can enhance the spatial resolution of remote sensing images, enabling more efficient large scale earth observation applications. While single image SR methods enhance low resolution images, they neglect valuable complementary information from auxiliary data. Reference based SR can be interpreted as an information fusion task, where historical high resolution reference images are combined with current LR observations. However, existing RefSR methods struggle with real world complexities, such as cross sensor resolution gap and significant land cover changes, often leading to under generation or over reliance on reference image. To address these challenges, we propose CRefDiff, a novel controllable reference guided diffusion model for real world remote sensing image SR. To address the under generation problem, CRefDiff leverages a powerful generative prior to produce accurate structures and textures. To mitigate over reliance on the reference, we introduce a dual branch fusion mechanism that adaptively fuse both local and global information from the reference image. Moreover, the dual branch design enables reference strength control during inference, enhancing the models interactivity and flexibility. Finally, the Better Start strategy is proposed to significantly reduce the number of denoising steps, thereby accelerating the inference process. To support further research, we introduce RealRefRSSRD, a new real world RefSR dataset for remote sensing images, consisting of HR NAIP and LR Sentinel2 image pairs with diverse land cover changes and significant temporal gaps. Extensive experiments on RealRefRSSRD show that CRefDiff achieves SOTA performance and improves downstream tasks.

  • 2 authors
·
Jun 30

Explain Before You Answer: A Survey on Compositional Visual Reasoning

Compositional visual reasoning has emerged as a key research frontier in multimodal AI, aiming to endow machines with the human-like ability to decompose visual scenes, ground intermediate concepts, and perform multi-step logical inference. While early surveys focus on monolithic vision-language models or general multimodal reasoning, a dedicated synthesis of the rapidly expanding compositional visual reasoning literature is still missing. We fill this gap with a comprehensive survey spanning 2023 to 2025 that systematically reviews 260+ papers from top venues (CVPR, ICCV, NeurIPS, ICML, ACL, etc.). We first formalize core definitions and describe why compositional approaches offer advantages in cognitive alignment, semantic fidelity, robustness, interpretability, and data efficiency. Next, we trace a five-stage paradigm shift: from prompt-enhanced language-centric pipelines, through tool-enhanced LLMs and tool-enhanced VLMs, to recently minted chain-of-thought reasoning and unified agentic VLMs, highlighting their architectural designs, strengths, and limitations. We then catalog 60+ benchmarks and corresponding metrics that probe compositional visual reasoning along dimensions such as grounding accuracy, chain-of-thought faithfulness, and high-resolution perception. Drawing on these analyses, we distill key insights, identify open challenges (e.g., limitations of LLM-based reasoning, hallucination, a bias toward deductive reasoning, scalable supervision, tool integration, and benchmark limitations), and outline future directions, including world-model integration, human-AI collaborative reasoning, and richer evaluation protocols. By offering a unified taxonomy, historical roadmap, and critical outlook, this survey aims to serve as a foundational reference and inspire the next generation of compositional visual reasoning research.

  • 13 authors
·
Aug 24 2

An Automatic Approach for Generating Rich, Linked Geo-Metadata from Historical Map Images

Historical maps contain detailed geographic information difficult to find elsewhere covering long-periods of time (e.g., 125 years for the historical topographic maps in the US). However, these maps typically exist as scanned images without searchable metadata. Existing approaches making historical maps searchable rely on tedious manual work (including crowd-sourcing) to generate the metadata (e.g., geolocations and keywords). Optical character recognition (OCR) software could alleviate the required manual work, but the recognition results are individual words instead of location phrases (e.g., "Black" and "Mountain" vs. "Black Mountain"). This paper presents an end-to-end approach to address the real-world problem of finding and indexing historical map images. This approach automatically processes historical map images to extract their text content and generates a set of metadata that is linked to large external geospatial knowledge bases. The linked metadata in the RDF (Resource Description Framework) format support complex queries for finding and indexing historical maps, such as retrieving all historical maps covering mountain peaks higher than 1,000 meters in California. We have implemented the approach in a system called mapKurator. We have evaluated mapKurator using historical maps from several sources with various map styles, scales, and coverage. Our results show significant improvement over the state-of-the-art methods. The code has been made publicly available as modules of the Kartta Labs project at https://github.com/kartta-labs/Project.

  • 7 authors
·
Dec 2, 2021

News Deja Vu: Connecting Past and Present with Semantic Search

Social scientists and the general public often analyze contemporary events by drawing parallels with the past, a process complicated by the vast, noisy, and unstructured nature of historical texts. For example, hundreds of millions of page scans from historical newspapers have been noisily transcribed. Traditional sparse methods for searching for relevant material in these vast corpora, e.g., with keywords, can be brittle given complex vocabularies and OCR noise. This study introduces News Deja Vu, a novel semantic search tool that leverages transformer large language models and a bi-encoder approach to identify historical news articles that are most similar to modern news queries. News Deja Vu first recognizes and masks entities, in order to focus on broader parallels rather than the specific named entities being discussed. Then, a contrastively trained, lightweight bi-encoder retrieves historical articles that are most similar semantically to a modern query, illustrating how phenomena that might seem unique to the present have varied historical precedents. Aimed at social scientists, the user-friendly News Deja Vu package is designed to be accessible for those who lack extensive familiarity with deep learning. It works with large text datasets, and we show how it can be deployed to a massive scale corpus of historical, open-source news articles. While human expertise remains important for drawing deeper insights, News Deja Vu provides a powerful tool for exploring parallels in how people have perceived past and present.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 21, 2024