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Oct 31

Short-term Volatility Estimation for High Frequency Trades using Gaussian processes (GPs)

The fundamental theorem behind financial markets is that stock prices are intrinsically complex and stochastic. One of the complexities is the volatility associated with stock prices. Volatility is a tendency for prices to change unexpectedly [1]. Price volatility is often detrimental to the return economics, and thus, investors should factor it in whenever making investment decisions, choices, and temporal or permanent moves. It is, therefore, crucial to make necessary and regular short and long-term stock price volatility forecasts for the safety and economics of investors returns. These forecasts should be accurate and not misleading. Different models and methods, such as ARCH GARCH models, have been intuitively implemented to make such forecasts. However, such traditional means fail to capture the short-term volatility forecasts effectively. This paper, therefore, investigates and implements a combination of numeric and probabilistic models for short-term volatility and return forecasting for high-frequency trades. The essence is that one-day-ahead volatility forecasts were made with Gaussian Processes (GPs) applied to the outputs of a Numerical market prediction (NMP) model. Firstly, the stock price data from NMP was corrected by a GP. Since it is not easy to set price limits in a market due to its free nature and randomness, a Censored GP was used to model the relationship between the corrected stock prices and returns. Forecasting errors were evaluated using the implied and estimated data.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 17, 2023

DiMSUM: Diffusion Mamba -- A Scalable and Unified Spatial-Frequency Method for Image Generation

We introduce a novel state-space architecture for diffusion models, effectively harnessing spatial and frequency information to enhance the inductive bias towards local features in input images for image generation tasks. While state-space networks, including Mamba, a revolutionary advancement in recurrent neural networks, typically scan input sequences from left to right, they face difficulties in designing effective scanning strategies, especially in the processing of image data. Our method demonstrates that integrating wavelet transformation into Mamba enhances the local structure awareness of visual inputs and better captures long-range relations of frequencies by disentangling them into wavelet subbands, representing both low- and high-frequency components. These wavelet-based outputs are then processed and seamlessly fused with the original Mamba outputs through a cross-attention fusion layer, combining both spatial and frequency information to optimize the order awareness of state-space models which is essential for the details and overall quality of image generation. Besides, we introduce a globally-shared transformer to supercharge the performance of Mamba, harnessing its exceptional power to capture global relationships. Through extensive experiments on standard benchmarks, our method demonstrates superior results compared to DiT and DIFFUSSM, achieving faster training convergence and delivering high-quality outputs. The codes and pretrained models are released at https://github.com/VinAIResearch/DiMSUM.git.

  • 6 authors
·
Nov 6, 2024

Apollo: Band-sequence Modeling for High-Quality Audio Restoration

Audio restoration has become increasingly significant in modern society, not only due to the demand for high-quality auditory experiences enabled by advanced playback devices, but also because the growing capabilities of generative audio models necessitate high-fidelity audio. Typically, audio restoration is defined as a task of predicting undistorted audio from damaged input, often trained using a GAN framework to balance perception and distortion. Since audio degradation is primarily concentrated in mid- and high-frequency ranges, especially due to codecs, a key challenge lies in designing a generator capable of preserving low-frequency information while accurately reconstructing high-quality mid- and high-frequency content. Inspired by recent advancements in high-sample-rate music separation, speech enhancement, and audio codec models, we propose Apollo, a generative model designed for high-sample-rate audio restoration. Apollo employs an explicit frequency band split module to model the relationships between different frequency bands, allowing for more coherent and higher-quality restored audio. Evaluated on the MUSDB18-HQ and MoisesDB datasets, Apollo consistently outperforms existing SR-GAN models across various bit rates and music genres, particularly excelling in complex scenarios involving mixtures of multiple instruments and vocals. Apollo significantly improves music restoration quality while maintaining computational efficiency. The source code for Apollo is publicly available at https://github.com/JusperLee/Apollo.

  • 2 authors
·
Sep 12, 2024 2

RADIANCE: Radio-Frequency Adversarial Deep-learning Inference for Automated Network Coverage Estimation

Radio-frequency coverage maps (RF maps) are extensively utilized in wireless networks for capacity planning, placement of access points and base stations, localization, and coverage estimation. Conducting site surveys to obtain RF maps is labor-intensive and sometimes not feasible. In this paper, we propose radio-frequency adversarial deep-learning inference for automated network coverage estimation (RADIANCE), a generative adversarial network (GAN) based approach for synthesizing RF maps in indoor scenarios. RADIANCE utilizes a semantic map, a high-level representation of the indoor environment to encode spatial relationships and attributes of objects within the environment and guide the RF map generation process. We introduce a new gradient-based loss function that computes the magnitude and direction of change in received signal strength (RSS) values from a point within the environment. RADIANCE incorporates this loss function along with the antenna pattern to capture signal propagation within a given indoor configuration and generate new patterns under new configuration, antenna (beam) pattern, and center frequency. Extensive simulations are conducted to compare RADIANCE with ray-tracing simulations of RF maps. Our results show that RADIANCE achieves a mean average error (MAE) of 0.09, root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of 0.29, peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR) of 10.78, and multi-scale structural similarity index (MS-SSIM) of 0.80.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 21, 2023

Universal features of price formation in financial markets: perspectives from Deep Learning

Using a large-scale Deep Learning approach applied to a high-frequency database containing billions of electronic market quotes and transactions for US equities, we uncover nonparametric evidence for the existence of a universal and stationary price formation mechanism relating the dynamics of supply and demand for a stock, as revealed through the order book, to subsequent variations in its market price. We assess the model by testing its out-of-sample predictions for the direction of price moves given the history of price and order flow, across a wide range of stocks and time periods. The universal price formation model is shown to exhibit a remarkably stable out-of-sample prediction accuracy across time, for a wide range of stocks from different sectors. Interestingly, these results also hold for stocks which are not part of the training sample, showing that the relations captured by the model are universal and not asset-specific. The universal model --- trained on data from all stocks --- outperforms, in terms of out-of-sample prediction accuracy, asset-specific linear and nonlinear models trained on time series of any given stock, showing that the universal nature of price formation weighs in favour of pooling together financial data from various stocks, rather than designing asset- or sector-specific models as commonly done. Standard data normalizations based on volatility, price level or average spread, or partitioning the training data into sectors or categories such as large/small tick stocks, do not improve training results. On the other hand, inclusion of price and order flow history over many past observations is shown to improve forecasting performance, showing evidence of path-dependence in price dynamics.

  • 2 authors
·
Mar 19, 2018