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Dec 5

IntentionQA: A Benchmark for Evaluating Purchase Intention Comprehension Abilities of Language Models in E-commerce

Enhancing Language Models' (LMs) ability to understand purchase intentions in E-commerce scenarios is crucial for their effective assistance in various downstream tasks. However, previous approaches that distill intentions from LMs often fail to generate meaningful and human-centric intentions applicable in real-world E-commerce contexts. This raises concerns about the true comprehension and utilization of purchase intentions by LMs. In this paper, we present IntentionQA, a double-task multiple-choice question answering benchmark to evaluate LMs' comprehension of purchase intentions in E-commerce. Specifically, LMs are tasked to infer intentions based on purchased products and utilize them to predict additional purchases. IntentionQA consists of 4,360 carefully curated problems across three difficulty levels, constructed using an automated pipeline to ensure scalability on large E-commerce platforms. Human evaluations demonstrate the high quality and low false-negative rate of our benchmark. Extensive experiments across 19 language models show that they still struggle with certain scenarios, such as understanding products and intentions accurately, jointly reasoning with products and intentions, and more, in which they fall far behind human performances. Our code and data are publicly available at https://github.com/HKUST-KnowComp/IntentionQA.

  • 8 authors
·
Jun 14, 2024

Collaborative Metric Learning Recommendation System: Application to Theatrical Movie Releases

Product recommendation systems are important for major movie studios during the movie greenlight process and as part of machine learning personalization pipelines. Collaborative Filtering (CF) models have proved to be effective at powering recommender systems for online streaming services with explicit customer feedback data. CF models do not perform well in scenarios in which feedback data is not available, in cold start situations like new product launches, and situations with markedly different customer tiers (e.g., high frequency customers vs. casual customers). Generative natural language models that create useful theme-based representations of an underlying corpus of documents can be used to represent new product descriptions, like new movie plots. When combined with CF, they have shown to increase the performance in cold start situations. Outside of those cases though in which explicit customer feedback is available, recommender engines must rely on binary purchase data, which materially degrades performance. Fortunately, purchase data can be combined with product descriptions to generate meaningful representations of products and customer trajectories in a convenient product space in which proximity represents similarity. Learning to measure the distance between points in this space can be accomplished with a deep neural network that trains on customer histories and on dense vectorizations of product descriptions. We developed a system based on Collaborative (Deep) Metric Learning (CML) to predict the purchase probabilities of new theatrical releases. We trained and evaluated the model using a large dataset of customer histories, and tested the model for a set of movies that were released outside of the training window. Initial experiments show gains relative to models that do not train on collaborative preferences.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 28, 2018

Intent Contrastive Learning with Cross Subsequences for Sequential Recommendation

The user purchase behaviors are mainly influenced by their intentions (e.g., buying clothes for decoration, buying brushes for painting, etc.). Modeling a user's latent intention can significantly improve the performance of recommendations. Previous works model users' intentions by considering the predefined label in auxiliary information or introducing stochastic data augmentation to learn purposes in the latent space. However, the auxiliary information is sparse and not always available for recommender systems, and introducing stochastic data augmentation may introduce noise and thus change the intentions hidden in the sequence. Therefore, leveraging user intentions for sequential recommendation (SR) can be challenging because they are frequently varied and unobserved. In this paper, Intent contrastive learning with Cross Subsequences for sequential Recommendation (ICSRec) is proposed to model users' latent intentions. Specifically, ICSRec first segments a user's sequential behaviors into multiple subsequences by using a dynamic sliding operation and takes these subsequences into the encoder to generate the representations for the user's intentions. To tackle the problem of no explicit labels for purposes, ICSRec assumes different subsequences with the same target item may represent the same intention and proposes a coarse-grain intent contrastive learning to push these subsequences closer. Then, fine-grain intent contrastive learning is mentioned to capture the fine-grain intentions of subsequences in sequential behaviors. Extensive experiments conducted on four real-world datasets demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed ICSRec model compared with baseline methods.

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 22, 2023

Unified Dual-Intent Translation for Joint Modeling of Search and Recommendation

Recommendation systems, which assist users in discovering their preferred items among numerous options, have served billions of users across various online platforms. Intuitively, users' interactions with items are highly driven by their unchanging inherent intents (e.g., always preferring high-quality items) and changing demand intents (e.g., wanting a T-shirt in summer but a down jacket in winter). However, both types of intents are implicitly expressed in recommendation scenario, posing challenges in leveraging them for accurate intent-aware recommendations. Fortunately, in search scenario, often found alongside recommendation on the same online platform, users express their demand intents explicitly through their query words. Intuitively, in both scenarios, a user shares the same inherent intent and the interactions may be influenced by the same demand intent. It is therefore feasible to utilize the interaction data from both scenarios to reinforce the dual intents for joint intent-aware modeling. But the joint modeling should deal with two problems: 1) accurately modeling users' implicit demand intents in recommendation; 2) modeling the relation between the dual intents and the interactive items. To address these problems, we propose a novel model named Unified Dual-Intents Translation for joint modeling of Search and Recommendation (UDITSR). To accurately simulate users' demand intents in recommendation, we utilize real queries from search data as supervision information to guide its generation. To explicitly model the relation among the triplet <inherent intent, demand intent, interactive item>, we propose a dual-intent translation propagation mechanism to learn the triplet in the same semantic space via embedding translations. Extensive experiments demonstrate that UDITSR outperforms SOTA baselines both in search and recommendation tasks.

  • 10 authors
·
Jun 30, 2024

Incorporating Customer Reviews in Size and Fit Recommendation systems for Fashion E-Commerce

With the huge growth in e-commerce domain, product recommendations have become an increasing field of interest amongst e-commerce companies. One of the more difficult tasks in product recommendations is size and fit predictions. There are a lot of size related returns and refunds in e-fashion domain which causes inconvenience to the customers as well as costs the company. Thus having a good size and fit recommendation system, which can predict the correct sizes for the customers will not only reduce size related returns and refunds but also improve customer experience. Early works in this field used traditional machine learning approaches to estimate customer and product sizes from purchase history. These methods suffered from cold start problem due to huge sparsity in the customer-product data. More recently, people have used deep learning to address this problem by embedding customer and product features. But none of them incorporates valuable customer feedback present on product pages along with the customer and product features. We propose a novel approach which can use information from customer reviews along with customer and product features for size and fit predictions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach compared to using just product and customer features on 4 datasets. Our method shows an improvement of 1.37% - 4.31% in F1 (macro) score over the baseline across the 4 different datasets.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 11, 2022

MAG-V: A Multi-Agent Framework for Synthetic Data Generation and Verification

Extending the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) with functions or tools for environment interaction has led to the emergence of the agent paradigm. In industry, training an LLM is not always feasible because of the scarcity of domain data, legal holds on proprietary customer data, rapidly changing business requirements, and the need to prototype new assistants. Agents provide an elegant solution to the above by relying on the zero-shot reasoning abilities of the underlying LLM and utilizing tools to explore and reason over customer data and respond to user requests. However, there are two concerns here: (I) acquiring large scale customer queries for agent testing is time-consuming, and (II) high reliance on the tool call sequence (or trajectory) followed by the agent to respond to user queries may lead to unexpected or incorrect behavior. To address this, we propose MAG-V, a multi-agent framework to first generate a dataset of questions that mimic customer queries; and second, reverse-engineer alternate questions from the responses for trajectory verification. Initial results indicate that our synthetic data can improve agent performance on actual customer queries. Furthermore, our trajectory verification methodology, inspired by distant supervision and using traditional machine learning (ML) models, outperforms a GPT-4o judge baseline by 11% accuracy and matches the performance of a GPT-4 judge on our constructed dataset. Overall, our approach is a step towards unifying diverse task agents into a cohesive framework for achieving an aligned objective.

  • 6 authors
·
Nov 28, 2024

TicketTalk: Toward human-level performance with end-to-end, transaction-based dialog systems

We present a data-driven, end-to-end approach to transaction-based dialog systems that performs at near-human levels in terms of verbal response quality and factual grounding accuracy. We show that two essential components of the system produce these results: a sufficiently large and diverse, in-domain labeled dataset, and a neural network-based, pre-trained model that generates both verbal responses and API call predictions. In terms of data, we introduce TicketTalk, a movie ticketing dialog dataset with 23,789 annotated conversations. The movie ticketing conversations range from completely open-ended and unrestricted to more structured, both in terms of their knowledge base, discourse features, and number of turns. In qualitative human evaluations, model-generated responses trained on just 10,000 TicketTalk dialogs were rated to "make sense" 86.5 percent of the time, almost the same as human responses in the same contexts. Our simple, API-focused annotation schema results in a much easier labeling task making it faster and more cost effective. It is also the key component for being able to predict API calls accurately. We handle factual grounding by incorporating API calls in the training data, allowing our model to learn which actions to take and when. Trained on the same 10,000-dialog set, the model's API call predictions were rated to be correct 93.9 percent of the time in our evaluations, surpassing the ratings for the corresponding human labels. We show how API prediction and response generation scores improve as the dataset size incrementally increases from 5000 to 21,000 dialogs. Our analysis also clearly illustrates the benefits of pre-training. We are publicly releasing the TicketTalk dataset with this paper to facilitate future work on transaction-based dialogs.

  • 4 authors
·
Dec 22, 2020

Feature Responsiveness Scores: Model-Agnostic Explanations for Recourse

Machine learning models routinely automate decisions in applications like lending and hiring. In such settings, consumer protection rules require companies that deploy models to explain predictions to decision subjects. These rules are motivated, in part, by the belief that explanations can promote recourse by revealing information that individuals can use to contest or improve their outcomes. In practice, many companies comply with these rules by providing individuals with a list of the most important features for their prediction, which they identify based on feature importance scores from feature attribution methods such as SHAP or LIME. In this work, we show how these practices can undermine consumers by highlighting features that would not lead to an improved outcome and by explaining predictions that cannot be changed. We propose to address these issues by highlighting features based on their responsiveness score -- i.e., the probability that an individual can attain a target prediction by changing a specific feature. We develop efficient methods to compute responsiveness scores for any model and any dataset. We conduct an extensive empirical study on the responsiveness of explanations in lending. Our results show that standard practices in consumer finance can backfire by presenting consumers with reasons without recourse, and demonstrate how our approach improves consumer protection by highlighting responsive features and identifying fixed predictions.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 29, 2024

SalesRLAgent: A Reinforcement Learning Approach for Real-Time Sales Conversion Prediction and Optimization

Current approaches to sales conversation analysis and conversion prediction typically rely on Large Language Models (LLMs) combined with basic retrieval augmented generation (RAG). These systems, while capable of answering questions, fail to accurately predict conversion probability or provide strategic guidance in real time. In this paper, we present SalesRLAgent, a novel framework leveraging specialized reinforcement learning to predict conversion probability throughout sales conversations. Unlike systems from Kapa.ai, Mendable, Inkeep, and others that primarily use off-the-shelf LLMs for content generation, our approach treats conversion prediction as a sequential decision problem, training on synthetic data generated using GPT-4O to develop a specialized probability estimation model. Our system incorporates Azure OpenAI embeddings (3072 dimensions), turn-by-turn state tracking, and meta-learning capabilities to understand its own knowledge boundaries. Evaluations demonstrate that SalesRLAgent achieves 96.7% accuracy in conversion prediction, outperforming LLM-only approaches by 34.7% while offering significantly faster inference (85ms vs 3450ms for GPT-4). Furthermore, integration with existing sales platforms shows a 43.2% increase in conversion rates when representatives utilize our system's real-time guidance. SalesRLAgent represents a fundamental shift from content generation to strategic sales intelligence, providing moment-by-moment conversion probability estimation with actionable insights for sales professionals.

  • 1 authors
·
Mar 29

UQABench: Evaluating User Embedding for Prompting LLMs in Personalized Question Answering

Large language models (LLMs) achieve remarkable success in natural language processing (NLP). In practical scenarios like recommendations, as users increasingly seek personalized experiences, it becomes crucial to incorporate user interaction history into the context of LLMs to enhance personalization. However, from a practical utility perspective, user interactions' extensive length and noise present challenges when used directly as text prompts. A promising solution is to compress and distill interactions into compact embeddings, serving as soft prompts to assist LLMs in generating personalized responses. Although this approach brings efficiency, a critical concern emerges: Can user embeddings adequately capture valuable information and prompt LLMs? To address this concern, we propose \name, a benchmark designed to evaluate the effectiveness of user embeddings in prompting LLMs for personalization. We establish a fair and standardized evaluation process, encompassing pre-training, fine-tuning, and evaluation stages. To thoroughly evaluate user embeddings, we design three dimensions of tasks: sequence understanding, action prediction, and interest perception. These evaluation tasks cover the industry's demands in traditional recommendation tasks, such as improving prediction accuracy, and its aspirations for LLM-based methods, such as accurately understanding user interests and enhancing the user experience. We conduct extensive experiments on various state-of-the-art methods for modeling user embeddings. Additionally, we reveal the scaling laws of leveraging user embeddings to prompt LLMs. The benchmark is available online.

  • 13 authors
·
Feb 26

Temporal Interest Network for User Response Prediction

User response prediction is essential in industrial recommendation systems, such as online display advertising. Among all the features in recommendation models, user behaviors are among the most critical. Many works have revealed that a user's behavior reflects her interest in the candidate item, owing to the semantic or temporal correlation between behaviors and the candidate. While the literature has individually examined each of these correlations, researchers have yet to analyze them in combination, that is, the semantic-temporal correlation. We empirically measure this correlation and observe intuitive yet robust patterns. We then examine several popular user interest models and find that, surprisingly, none of them learn such correlation well. To fill this gap, we propose a Temporal Interest Network (TIN) to capture the semantic-temporal correlation simultaneously between behaviors and the target. We achieve this by incorporating target-aware temporal encoding, in addition to semantic encoding, to represent behaviors and the target. Furthermore, we conduct explicit 4-way interaction by deploying target-aware attention and target-aware representation to capture both semantic and temporal correlation. We conduct comprehensive evaluations on two popular public datasets, and our proposed TIN outperforms the best-performing baselines by 0.43% and 0.29% on GAUC, respectively. During online A/B testing in Tencent's advertising platform, TIN achieves 1.65% cost lift and 1.93% GMV lift over the base model. It has been successfully deployed in production since October 2023, serving the WeChat Moments traffic. We have released our code at https://github.com/zhouxy1003/TIN.

  • 7 authors
·
Aug 15, 2023

Quick on the Uptake: Eliciting Implicit Intents from Human Demonstrations for Personalized Mobile-Use Agents

As multimodal large language models advance rapidly, the automation of mobile tasks has become increasingly feasible through the use of mobile-use agents that mimic human interactions from graphical user interface. To further enhance mobile-use agents, previous studies employ demonstration learning to improve mobile-use agents from human demonstrations. However, these methods focus solely on the explicit intention flows of humans (e.g., step sequences) while neglecting implicit intention flows (e.g., personal preferences), which makes it difficult to construct personalized mobile-use agents. In this work, to evaluate the Intention Alignment Rate between mobile-use agents and humans, we first collect MobileIAR, a dataset containing human-intent-aligned actions and ground-truth actions. This enables a comprehensive assessment of the agents' understanding of human intent. Then we propose IFRAgent, a framework built upon Intention Flow Recognition from human demonstrations. IFRAgent analyzes explicit intention flows from human demonstrations to construct a query-level vector library of standard operating procedures (SOP), and analyzes implicit intention flows to build a user-level habit repository. IFRAgent then leverages a SOP extractor combined with retrieval-augmented generation and a query rewriter to generate personalized query and SOP from a raw ambiguous query, enhancing the alignment between mobile-use agents and human intent. Experimental results demonstrate that IFRAgent outperforms baselines by an average of 6.79\% (32.06\% relative improvement) in human intention alignment rate and improves step completion rates by an average of 5.30\% (26.34\% relative improvement). The codes are available at https://github.com/MadeAgents/Quick-on-the-Uptake.

  • 9 authors
·
Aug 12

Automatic Intent-Slot Induction for Dialogue Systems

Automatically and accurately identifying user intents and filling the associated slots from their spoken language are critical to the success of dialogue systems. Traditional methods require manually defining the DOMAIN-INTENT-SLOT schema and asking many domain experts to annotate the corresponding utterances, upon which neural models are trained. This procedure brings the challenges of information sharing hindering, out-of-schema, or data sparsity in open-domain dialogue systems. To tackle these challenges, we explore a new task of {\em automatic intent-slot induction} and propose a novel domain-independent tool. That is, we design a coarse-to-fine three-step procedure including Role-labeling, Concept-mining, And Pattern-mining (RCAP): (1) role-labeling: extracting keyphrases from users' utterances and classifying them into a quadruple of coarsely-defined intent-roles via sequence labeling; (2) concept-mining: clustering the extracted intent-role mentions and naming them into abstract fine-grained concepts; (3) pattern-mining: applying the Apriori algorithm to mine intent-role patterns and automatically inferring the intent-slot using these coarse-grained intent-role labels and fine-grained concepts. Empirical evaluations on both real-world in-domain and out-of-domain datasets show that: (1) our RCAP can generate satisfactory SLU schema and outperforms the state-of-the-art supervised learning method; (2) our RCAP can be directly applied to out-of-domain datasets and gain at least 76\% improvement of F1-score on intent detection and 41\% improvement of F1-score on slot filling; (3) our RCAP exhibits its power in generic intent-slot extractions with less manual effort, which opens pathways for schema induction on new domains and unseen intent-slot discovery for generalizable dialogue systems.

  • 5 authors
·
Mar 16, 2021

RecGPT Technical Report

Recommender systems are among the most impactful applications of artificial intelligence, serving as critical infrastructure connecting users, merchants, and platforms. However, most current industrial systems remain heavily reliant on historical co-occurrence patterns and log-fitting objectives, i.e., optimizing for past user interactions without explicitly modeling user intent. This log-fitting approach often leads to overfitting to narrow historical preferences, failing to capture users' evolving and latent interests. As a result, it reinforces filter bubbles and long-tail phenomena, ultimately harming user experience and threatening the sustainability of the whole recommendation ecosystem. To address these challenges, we rethink the overall design paradigm of recommender systems and propose RecGPT, a next-generation framework that places user intent at the center of the recommendation pipeline. By integrating large language models (LLMs) into key stages of user interest mining, item retrieval, and explanation generation, RecGPT transforms log-fitting recommendation into an intent-centric process. To effectively align general-purpose LLMs to the above domain-specific recommendation tasks at scale, RecGPT incorporates a multi-stage training paradigm, which integrates reasoning-enhanced pre-alignment and self-training evolution, guided by a Human-LLM cooperative judge system. Currently, RecGPT has been fully deployed on the Taobao App. Online experiments demonstrate that RecGPT achieves consistent performance gains across stakeholders: users benefit from increased content diversity and satisfaction, merchants and the platform gain greater exposure and conversions. These comprehensive improvement results across all stakeholders validates that LLM-driven, intent-centric design can foster a more sustainable and mutually beneficial recommendation ecosystem.

  • 53 authors
·
Jul 30 2

Using Advanced LLMs to Enhance Smaller LLMs: An Interpretable Knowledge Distillation Approach

Advanced Large language models (LLMs) like GPT-4 or LlaMa 3 provide superior performance in complex human-like interactions. But they are costly, or too large for edge devices such as smartphones and harder to self-host, leading to security and privacy concerns. This paper introduces a novel interpretable knowledge distillation approach to enhance the performance of smaller, more economical LLMs that firms can self-host. We study this problem in the context of building a customer service agent aimed at achieving high customer satisfaction through goal-oriented dialogues. Unlike traditional knowledge distillation, where the "student" model learns directly from the "teacher" model's responses via fine-tuning, our interpretable "strategy" teaching approach involves the teacher providing strategies to improve the student's performance in various scenarios. This method alternates between a "scenario generation" step and a "strategies for improvement" step, creating a customized library of scenarios and optimized strategies for automated prompting. The method requires only black-box access to both student and teacher models; hence it can be used without manipulating model parameters. In our customer service application, the method improves performance, and the learned strategies are transferable to other LLMs and scenarios beyond the training set. The method's interpretabilty helps safeguard against potential harms through human audit.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 13, 2024

MIntRec2.0: A Large-scale Benchmark Dataset for Multimodal Intent Recognition and Out-of-scope Detection in Conversations

Multimodal intent recognition poses significant challenges, requiring the incorporation of non-verbal modalities from real-world contexts to enhance the comprehension of human intentions. Existing benchmark datasets are limited in scale and suffer from difficulties in handling out-of-scope samples that arise in multi-turn conversational interactions. We introduce MIntRec2.0, a large-scale benchmark dataset for multimodal intent recognition in multi-party conversations. It contains 1,245 dialogues with 15,040 samples, each annotated within a new intent taxonomy of 30 fine-grained classes. Besides 9,304 in-scope samples, it also includes 5,736 out-of-scope samples appearing in multi-turn contexts, which naturally occur in real-world scenarios. Furthermore, we provide comprehensive information on the speakers in each utterance, enriching its utility for multi-party conversational research. We establish a general framework supporting the organization of single-turn and multi-turn dialogue data, modality feature extraction, multimodal fusion, as well as in-scope classification and out-of-scope detection. Evaluation benchmarks are built using classic multimodal fusion methods, ChatGPT, and human evaluators. While existing methods incorporating nonverbal information yield improvements, effectively leveraging context information and detecting out-of-scope samples remains a substantial challenge. Notably, large language models exhibit a significant performance gap compared to humans, highlighting the limitations of machine learning methods in the cognitive intent understanding task. We believe that MIntRec2.0 will serve as a valuable resource, providing a pioneering foundation for research in human-machine conversational interactions, and significantly facilitating related applications. The full dataset and codes are available at https://github.com/thuiar/MIntRec2.0.

  • 9 authors
·
Mar 16, 2024

An Efficient Multimodal Learning Framework to Comprehend Consumer Preferences Using BERT and Cross-Attention

Today, the acquisition of various behavioral log data has enabled deeper understanding of customer preferences and future behaviors in the marketing field. In particular, multimodal deep learning has achieved highly accurate predictions by combining multiple types of data. Many of these studies utilize with feature fusion to construct multimodal models, which combines extracted representations from each modality. However, since feature fusion treats information from each modality equally, it is difficult to perform flexible analysis such as the attention mechanism that has been used extensively in recent years. Therefore, this study proposes a context-aware multimodal deep learning model that combines Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) and cross-attention Transformer, which dynamically changes the attention of deep-contextualized word representations based on background information such as consumer demographic and lifestyle variables. We conduct a comprehensive analysis and demonstrate the effectiveness of our model by comparing it with six reference models in three categories using behavioral logs stored on an online platform. In addition, we present an efficient multimodal learning method by comparing the learning efficiency depending on the optimizers and the prediction accuracy depending on the number of tokens in the text data.

  • 1 authors
·
May 12, 2024

CXMArena: Unified Dataset to benchmark performance in realistic CXM Scenarios

Large Language Models (LLMs) hold immense potential for revolutionizing Customer Experience Management (CXM), particularly in contact center operations. However, evaluating their practical utility in complex operational environments is hindered by data scarcity (due to privacy concerns) and the limitations of current benchmarks. Existing benchmarks often lack realism, failing to incorporate deep knowledge base (KB) integration, real-world noise, or critical operational tasks beyond conversational fluency. To bridge this gap, we introduce CXMArena, a novel, large-scale synthetic benchmark dataset specifically designed for evaluating AI in operational CXM contexts. Given the diversity in possible contact center features, we have developed a scalable LLM-powered pipeline that simulates the brand's CXM entities that form the foundation of our datasets-such as knowledge articles including product specifications, issue taxonomies, and contact center conversations. The entities closely represent real-world distribution because of controlled noise injection (informed by domain experts) and rigorous automated validation. Building on this, we release CXMArena, which provides dedicated benchmarks targeting five important operational tasks: Knowledge Base Refinement, Intent Prediction, Agent Quality Adherence, Article Search, and Multi-turn RAG with Integrated Tools. Our baseline experiments underscore the benchmark's difficulty: even state of the art embedding and generation models achieve only 68% accuracy on article search, while standard embedding methods yield a low F1 score of 0.3 for knowledge base refinement, highlighting significant challenges for current models necessitating complex pipelines and solutions over conventional techniques.

  • 3 authors
·
May 14

What Is Your AI Agent Buying? Evaluation, Implications and Emerging Questions for Agentic E-Commerce

Online marketplaces will be transformed by autonomous AI agents acting on behalf of consumers. Rather than humans browsing and clicking, vision-language-model (VLM) agents can parse webpages, evaluate products, and transact. This raises a fundamental question: what do AI agents buy, and why? We develop ACES, a sandbox environment that pairs a platform-agnostic VLM agent with a fully programmable mock marketplace to study this question. We first conduct basic rationality checks in the context of simple tasks, and then, by randomizing product positions, prices, ratings, reviews, sponsored tags, and platform endorsements, we obtain causal estimates of how frontier VLMs actually shop. Models show strong but heterogeneous position effects: all favor the top row, yet different models prefer different columns, undermining the assumption of a universal "top" rank. They penalize sponsored tags and reward endorsements. Sensitivities to price, ratings, and reviews are directionally human-like but vary sharply in magnitude across models. Motivated by scenarios where sellers use AI agents to optimize product listings, we show that a seller-side agent that makes minor tweaks to product descriptions, targeting AI buyer preferences, can deliver substantial market-share gains if AI-mediated shopping dominates. We also find that modal product choices can differ across models and, in some cases, demand may concentrate on a few select products, raising competition questions. Together, our results illuminate how AI agents may behave in e-commerce settings and surface concrete seller strategy, platform design, and regulatory questions in an AI-mediated ecosystem.

  • 5 authors
·
Aug 4 2

Automating Customer Service using LangChain: Building custom open-source GPT Chatbot for organizations

In the digital age, the dynamics of customer service are evolving, driven by technological advancements and the integration of Large Language Models (LLMs). This research paper introduces a groundbreaking approach to automating customer service using LangChain, a custom LLM tailored for organizations. The paper explores the obsolescence of traditional customer support techniques, particularly Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs), and proposes a paradigm shift towards responsive, context-aware, and personalized customer interactions. The heart of this innovation lies in the fusion of open-source methodologies, web scraping, fine-tuning, and the seamless integration of LangChain into customer service platforms. This open-source state-of-the-art framework, presented as "Sahaay," demonstrates the ability to scale across industries and organizations, offering real-time support and query resolution. Key elements of this research encompass data collection via web scraping, the role of embeddings, the utilization of Google's Flan T5 XXL, Base and Small language models for knowledge retrieval, and the integration of the chatbot into customer service platforms. The results section provides insights into their performance and use cases, here particularly within an educational institution. This research heralds a new era in customer service, where technology is harnessed to create efficient, personalized, and responsive interactions. Sahaay, powered by LangChain, redefines the customer-company relationship, elevating customer retention, value extraction, and brand image. As organizations embrace LLMs, customer service becomes a dynamic and customer-centric ecosystem.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 9, 2023

UI-JEPA: Towards Active Perception of User Intent through Onscreen User Activity

Generating user intent from a sequence of user interface (UI) actions is a core challenge in comprehensive UI understanding. Recent advancements in multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have led to substantial progress in this area, but their demands for extensive model parameters, computing power, and high latency makes them impractical for scenarios requiring lightweight, on-device solutions with low latency or heightened privacy. Additionally, the lack of high-quality datasets has hindered the development of such lightweight models. To address these challenges, we propose UI-JEPA, a novel framework that employs masking strategies to learn abstract UI embeddings from unlabeled data through self-supervised learning, combined with an LLM decoder fine-tuned for user intent prediction. We also introduce two new UI-grounded multimodal datasets, "Intent in the Wild" (IIW) and "Intent in the Tame" (IIT), designed for few-shot and zero-shot UI understanding tasks. IIW consists of 1.7K videos across 219 intent categories, while IIT contains 914 videos across 10 categories. We establish the first baselines for these datasets, showing that representations learned using a JEPA-style objective, combined with an LLM decoder, can achieve user intent predictions that match the performance of state-of-the-art large MLLMs, but with significantly reduced annotation and deployment resources. Measured by intent similarity scores, UI-JEPA outperforms GPT-4 Turbo and Claude 3.5 Sonnet by 10.0% and 7.2% respectively, averaged across two datasets. Notably, UI-JEPA accomplishes the performance with a 50.5x reduction in computational cost and a 6.6x improvement in latency in the IIW dataset. These results underscore the effectiveness of UI-JEPA, highlighting its potential for lightweight, high-performance UI understanding.

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 6, 2024

Multimodal Deep Learning of Word-of-Mouth Text and Demographics to Predict Customer Rating: Handling Consumer Heterogeneity in Marketing

In the marketing field, understanding consumer heterogeneity, which is the internal or psychological difference among consumers that cannot be captured by behavioral logs, has long been a critical challenge. However, a number of consumers today usually post their evaluation on the specific product on the online platform, which can be the valuable source of such unobservable differences among consumers. Several previous studies have shown the validity of the analysis on text modality, but on the other hand, such analyses may not necessarily demonstrate sufficient predictive accuracy for text alone, as they may not include information readily available from cross-sectional data, such as consumer profile data. In addition, recent advances in machine learning techniques, such as large-scale language models (LLMs) and multimodal learning have made it possible to deal with the various kind of dataset simultaneously, including textual data and the traditional cross-sectional data, and the joint representations can be effectively obtained from multiple modalities. Therefore, this study constructs a product evaluation model that takes into account consumer heterogeneity by multimodal learning of online product reviews and consumer profile information. We also compare multiple models using different modalities or hyper-parameters to demonstrate the robustness of multimodal learning in marketing analysis.

  • 1 authors
·
Jan 22, 2024

Leveraging Large Language Models for Enhanced Product Descriptions in eCommerce

In the dynamic field of eCommerce, the quality and comprehensiveness of product descriptions are pivotal for enhancing search visibility and customer engagement. Effective product descriptions can address the 'cold start' problem, align with market trends, and ultimately lead to increased click-through rates. Traditional methods for crafting these descriptions often involve significant human effort and may lack both consistency and scalability. This paper introduces a novel methodology for automating product description generation using the LLAMA 2.0 7B language model. We train the model on a dataset of authentic product descriptions from Walmart, one of the largest eCommerce platforms. The model is then fine-tuned for domain-specific language features and eCommerce nuances to enhance its utility in sales and user engagement. We employ multiple evaluation metrics, including NDCG, customer click-through rates, and human assessments, to validate the effectiveness of our approach. Our findings reveal that the system is not only scalable but also significantly reduces the human workload involved in creating product descriptions. This study underscores the considerable potential of large language models like LLAMA 2.0 7B in automating and optimizing various facets of eCommerce platforms, offering significant business impact, including improved search functionality and increased sales.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 23, 2023

Language Representations Can be What Recommenders Need: Findings and Potentials

Recent studies empirically indicate that language models (LMs) encode rich world knowledge beyond mere semantics, attracting significant attention across various fields. However, in the recommendation domain, it remains uncertain whether LMs implicitly encode user preference information. Contrary to prevailing understanding that LMs and traditional recommenders learn two distinct representation spaces due to the huge gap in language and behavior modeling objectives, this work re-examines such understanding and explores extracting a recommendation space directly from the language representation space. Surprisingly, our findings demonstrate that item representations, when linearly mapped from advanced LM representations, yield superior recommendation performance. This outcome suggests the possible homomorphism between the advanced language representation space and an effective item representation space for recommendation, implying that collaborative signals may be implicitly encoded within LMs. Motivated by these findings, we explore the possibility of designing advanced collaborative filtering (CF) models purely based on language representations without ID-based embeddings. To be specific, we incorporate several crucial components to build a simple yet effective model, with item titles as the input. Empirical results show that such a simple model can outperform leading ID-based CF models, which sheds light on using language representations for better recommendation. Moreover, we systematically analyze this simple model and find several key features for using advanced language representations: a good initialization for item representations, zero-shot recommendation abilities, and being aware of user intention. Our findings highlight the connection between language modeling and behavior modeling, which can inspire both natural language processing and recommender system communities.

  • 6 authors
·
Jul 7, 2024

LLMs Think, But Not In Your Flow: Reasoning-Level Personalization for Black-Box Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) have recently achieved impressive performance across a wide range of natural language tasks and are now widely used in real-world applications. Among them, black-box LLMs--served via APIs without access to model internals--are especially dominant due to their scalability and ease of deployment. Despite their strong capabilities, these models typically produce generalized responses that overlook personal preferences and reasoning styles. This has led to growing interest in black-box LLM personalization, which aims to tailor model outputs to user-specific context without modifying model parameters. However, existing approaches primarily focus on response-level personalization, attempting to match final outputs without modeling personal thought process. To address this limitation, we propose RPM, a framework for reasoning-level personalization that aligns the model's reasoning process with a user's personalized logic. RPM first constructs statistical user-specific factors by extracting and grouping response-influential features from user history. It then builds personalized reasoning paths that reflect how these factors are used in context. In the inference stage, RPM retrieves reasoning-aligned examples for new queries via feature-level similarity and performs inference conditioned on the structured factors and retrieved reasoning paths, enabling the model to follow user-specific reasoning trajectories. This reasoning-level personalization enhances both predictive accuracy and interpretability by grounding model outputs in user-specific logic through structured information. Extensive experiments across diverse tasks show that RPM consistently outperforms response-level personalization methods, demonstrating the effectiveness of reasoning-level personalization in black-box LLMs.

  • 5 authors
·
May 27

LLaMA-E: Empowering E-commerce Authoring with Multi-Aspect Instruction Following

E-commerce authoring involves creating attractive, abundant, and targeted promotional content to drive product sales. The emergence of large language models (LLMs) introduces an innovative paradigm, offering a unified solution to address various authoring tasks within this scenario. However, mainstream LLMs trained on general corpora with common sense knowledge reveal limitations in fitting complex and personalized features unique to e-commerce products and customers. Furthermore, LLMs like GPT-3.5 necessitate remote accessibility, raising concerns about safeguarding voluminous customer privacy data during transmission. This paper proposes the LLaMA-E, the unified and customized instruction-following language models focusing on diverse e-commerce authoring tasks. Specifically, the domain experts create the seed instruction set from the tasks of ads generation, query-enhanced product title rewriting, product classification, purchase intent speculation, and general Q&A. These tasks enable the models to comprehensively understand precise e-commerce authoring knowledge by interleaving features covering typical service aspects of customers, sellers, and platforms. The GPT-3.5 is introduced as a teacher model, which expands the seed instructions to form a training set for the LLaMA-E models with various scales. The experimental results show that the proposed LLaMA-E models achieve state-of-the-art results in quantitative and qualitative evaluations, also exhibiting the advantage in zero-shot scenes. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to serve the LLMs to specific e-commerce authoring scenarios.

  • 6 authors
·
Aug 9, 2023

Financial Risk Assessment via Long-term Payment Behavior Sequence Folding

Online inclusive financial services encounter significant financial risks due to their expansive user base and low default costs. By real-world practice, we reveal that utilizing longer-term user payment behaviors can enhance models' ability to forecast financial risks. However, learning long behavior sequences is non-trivial for deep sequential models. Additionally, the diverse fields of payment behaviors carry rich information, requiring thorough exploitation. These factors collectively complicate the task of long-term user behavior modeling. To tackle these challenges, we propose a Long-term Payment Behavior Sequence Folding method, referred to as LBSF. In LBSF, payment behavior sequences are folded based on merchants, using the merchant field as an intrinsic grouping criterion, which enables informative parallelism without reliance on external knowledge. Meanwhile, we maximize the utility of payment details through a multi-field behavior encoding mechanism. Subsequently, behavior aggregation at the merchant level followed by relational learning across merchants facilitates comprehensive user financial representation. We evaluate LBSF on the financial risk assessment task using a large-scale real-world dataset. The results demonstrate that folding long behavior sequences based on internal behavioral cues effectively models long-term patterns and changes, thereby generating more accurate user financial profiles for practical applications.

  • 7 authors
·
Nov 22, 2024

Query Understanding via Intent Description Generation

Query understanding is a fundamental problem in information retrieval (IR), which has attracted continuous attention through the past decades. Many different tasks have been proposed for understanding users' search queries, e.g., query classification or query clustering. However, it is not that precise to understand a search query at the intent class/cluster level due to the loss of many detailed information. As we may find in many benchmark datasets, e.g., TREC and SemEval, queries are often associated with a detailed description provided by human annotators which clearly describes its intent to help evaluate the relevance of the documents. If a system could automatically generate a detailed and precise intent description for a search query, like human annotators, that would indicate much better query understanding has been achieved. In this paper, therefore, we propose a novel Query-to-Intent-Description (Q2ID) task for query understanding. Unlike those existing ranking tasks which leverage the query and its description to compute the relevance of documents, Q2ID is a reverse task which aims to generate a natural language intent description based on both relevant and irrelevant documents of a given query. To address this new task, we propose a novel Contrastive Generation model, namely CtrsGen for short, to generate the intent description by contrasting the relevant documents with the irrelevant documents given a query. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our model by comparing with several state-of-the-art generation models on the Q2ID task. We discuss the potential usage of such Q2ID technique through an example application.

  • 5 authors
·
Aug 25, 2020

Simulating User Satisfaction for the Evaluation of Task-oriented Dialogue Systems

Evaluation is crucial in the development process of task-oriented dialogue systems. As an evaluation method, user simulation allows us to tackle issues such as scalability and cost-efficiency, making it a viable choice for large-scale automatic evaluation. To help build a human-like user simulator that can measure the quality of a dialogue, we propose the following task: simulating user satisfaction for the evaluation of task-oriented dialogue systems. The purpose of the task is to increase the evaluation power of user simulations and to make the simulation more human-like. To overcome a lack of annotated data, we propose a user satisfaction annotation dataset, USS, that includes 6,800 dialogues sampled from multiple domains, spanning real-world e-commerce dialogues, task-oriented dialogues constructed through Wizard-of-Oz experiments, and movie recommendation dialogues. All user utterances in those dialogues, as well as the dialogues themselves, have been labeled based on a 5-level satisfaction scale. We also share three baseline methods for user satisfaction prediction and action prediction tasks. Experiments conducted on the USS dataset suggest that distributed representations outperform feature-based methods. A model based on hierarchical GRUs achieves the best performance in in-domain user satisfaction prediction, while a BERT-based model has better cross-domain generalization ability.

  • 7 authors
·
May 8, 2021

Who Would be Interested in Services? An Entity Graph Learning System for User Targeting

With the growing popularity of various mobile devices, user targeting has received a growing amount of attention, which aims at effectively and efficiently locating target users that are interested in specific services. Most pioneering works for user targeting tasks commonly perform similarity-based expansion with a few active users as seeds, suffering from the following major issues: the unavailability of seed users for newcoming services and the unfriendliness of black-box procedures towards marketers. In this paper, we design an Entity Graph Learning (EGL) system to provide explainable user targeting ability meanwhile applicable to addressing the cold-start issue. EGL System follows the hybrid online-offline architecture to satisfy the requirements of scalability and timeliness. Specifically, in the offline stage, the system focuses on the heavyweight entity graph construction and user entity preference learning, in which we propose a Three-stage Relation Mining Procedure (TRMP), breaking loose from the expensive seed users. At the online stage, the system offers the ability of user targeting in real-time based on the entity graph from the offline stage. Since the user targeting process is based on graph reasoning, the whole process is transparent and operation-friendly to marketers. Finally, extensive offline experiments and online A/B testing demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed EGL System.

  • 7 authors
·
May 30, 2023

Dynamic Pricing for Airline Ancillaries with Customer Context

Ancillaries have become a major source of revenue and profitability in the travel industry. Yet, conventional pricing strategies are based on business rules that are poorly optimized and do not respond to changing market conditions. This paper describes the dynamic pricing model developed by Deepair solutions, an AI technology provider for travel suppliers. We present a pricing model that provides dynamic pricing recommendations specific to each customer interaction and optimizes expected revenue per customer. The unique nature of personalized pricing provides the opportunity to search over the market space to find the optimal price-point of each ancillary for each customer, without violating customer privacy. In this paper, we present and compare three approaches for dynamic pricing of ancillaries, with increasing levels of sophistication: (1) a two-stage forecasting and optimization model using a logistic mapping function; (2) a two-stage model that uses a deep neural network for forecasting, coupled with a revenue maximization technique using discrete exhaustive search; (3) a single-stage end-to-end deep neural network that recommends the optimal price. We describe the performance of these models based on both offline and online evaluations. We also measure the real-world business impact of these approaches by deploying them in an A/B test on an airline's internet booking website. We show that traditional machine learning techniques outperform human rule-based approaches in an online setting by improving conversion by 36% and revenue per offer by 10%. We also provide results for our offline experiments which show that deep learning algorithms outperform traditional machine learning techniques for this problem. Our end-to-end deep learning model is currently being deployed by the airline in their booking system.

  • 5 authors
·
Feb 6, 2019

Do LLMs Understand User Preferences? Evaluating LLMs On User Rating Prediction

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated exceptional capabilities in generalizing to new tasks in a zero-shot or few-shot manner. However, the extent to which LLMs can comprehend user preferences based on their previous behavior remains an emerging and still unclear research question. Traditionally, Collaborative Filtering (CF) has been the most effective method for these tasks, predominantly relying on the extensive volume of rating data. In contrast, LLMs typically demand considerably less data while maintaining an exhaustive world knowledge about each item, such as movies or products. In this paper, we conduct a thorough examination of both CF and LLMs within the classic task of user rating prediction, which involves predicting a user's rating for a candidate item based on their past ratings. We investigate various LLMs in different sizes, ranging from 250M to 540B parameters and evaluate their performance in zero-shot, few-shot, and fine-tuning scenarios. We conduct comprehensive analysis to compare between LLMs and strong CF methods, and find that zero-shot LLMs lag behind traditional recommender models that have the access to user interaction data, indicating the importance of user interaction data. However, through fine-tuning, LLMs achieve comparable or even better performance with only a small fraction of the training data, demonstrating their potential through data efficiency.

  • 7 authors
·
May 10, 2023

User Satisfaction Estimation with Sequential Dialogue Act Modeling in Goal-oriented Conversational Systems

User Satisfaction Estimation (USE) is an important yet challenging task in goal-oriented conversational systems. Whether the user is satisfied with the system largely depends on the fulfillment of the user's needs, which can be implicitly reflected by users' dialogue acts. However, existing studies often neglect the sequential transitions of dialogue act or rely heavily on annotated dialogue act labels when utilizing dialogue acts to facilitate USE. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, namely USDA, to incorporate the sequential dynamics of dialogue acts for predicting user satisfaction, by jointly learning User Satisfaction Estimation and Dialogue Act Recognition tasks. In specific, we first employ a Hierarchical Transformer to encode the whole dialogue context, with two task-adaptive pre-training strategies to be a second-phase in-domain pre-training for enhancing the dialogue modeling ability. In terms of the availability of dialogue act labels, we further develop two variants of USDA to capture the dialogue act information in either supervised or unsupervised manners. Finally, USDA leverages the sequential transitions of both content and act features in the dialogue to predict the user satisfaction. Experimental results on four benchmark goal-oriented dialogue datasets across different applications show that the proposed method substantially and consistently outperforms existing methods on USE, and validate the important role of dialogue act sequences in USE.

  • 5 authors
·
Feb 6, 2022

SWI: Speaking with Intent in Large Language Models

Intent, typically clearly formulated and planned, functions as a cognitive framework for reasoning and problem-solving. This paper introduces the concept of Speaking with Intent (SWI) in large language models (LLMs), where the explicitly generated intent encapsulates the model's underlying intention and provides high-level planning to guide subsequent analysis and communication. By emulating deliberate and purposeful thoughts in the human mind, SWI is hypothesized to enhance the reasoning capabilities and generation quality of LLMs. Extensive experiments on mathematical reasoning benchmarks consistently demonstrate the superiority of Speaking with Intent over Baseline (i.e., generation without explicit intent). Moreover, SWI outperforms answer-trigger prompting methods Chain-of-Thought and Plan-and-Solve and maintains competitive performance with the strong method ARR (Analyzing, Retrieving, and Reasoning). Additionally, the effectiveness and generalizability of SWI are solidified on reasoning-intensive question answering (QA) and text summarization benchmarks, where SWI brings consistent improvement to the Baseline generation. In text summarization, SWI-generated summaries exhibit greater accuracy, conciseness, and factual correctness, with fewer hallucinations. Furthermore, human evaluations verify the coherence, effectiveness, and interpretability of the intent produced by SWI. This proof-of-concept study creates a novel avenue for enhancing LLMs' reasoning abilities with cognitive notions.

ECKGBench: Benchmarking Large Language Models in E-commerce Leveraging Knowledge Graph

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated their capabilities across various NLP tasks. Their potential in e-commerce is also substantial, evidenced by practical implementations such as platform search, personalized recommendations, and customer service. One primary concern associated with LLMs is their factuality (e.g., hallucination), which is urgent in e-commerce due to its significant impact on user experience and revenue. Despite some methods proposed to evaluate LLMs' factuality, issues such as lack of reliability, high consumption, and lack of domain expertise leave a gap between effective assessment in e-commerce. To bridge the evaluation gap, we propose ECKGBench, a dataset specifically designed to evaluate the capacities of LLMs in e-commerce knowledge. Specifically, we adopt a standardized workflow to automatically generate questions based on a large-scale knowledge graph, guaranteeing sufficient reliability. We employ the simple question-answering paradigm, substantially improving the evaluation efficiency by the least input and output tokens. Furthermore, we inject abundant e-commerce expertise in each evaluation stage, including human annotation, prompt design, negative sampling, and verification. Besides, we explore the LLMs' knowledge boundaries in e-commerce from a novel perspective. Through comprehensive evaluations of several advanced LLMs on ECKGBench, we provide meticulous analysis and insights into leveraging LLMs for e-commerce.

  • 8 authors
·
Mar 20

MerRec: A Large-scale Multipurpose Mercari Dataset for Consumer-to-Consumer Recommendation Systems

In the evolving e-commerce field, recommendation systems crucially shape user experience and engagement. The rise of Consumer-to-Consumer (C2C) recommendation systems, noted for their flexibility and ease of access for customer vendors, marks a significant trend. However, the academic focus remains largely on Business-to-Consumer (B2C) models, leaving a gap filled by the limited C2C recommendation datasets that lack in item attributes, user diversity, and scale. The intricacy of C2C recommendation systems is further accentuated by the dual roles users assume as both sellers and buyers, introducing a spectrum of less uniform and varied inputs. Addressing this, we introduce MerRec, the first large-scale dataset specifically for C2C recommendations, sourced from the Mercari e-commerce platform, covering millions of users and products over 6 months in 2023. MerRec not only includes standard features such as user_id, item_id, and session_id, but also unique elements like timestamped action types, product taxonomy, and textual product attributes, offering a comprehensive dataset for research. This dataset, extensively evaluated across six recommendation tasks, establishes a new benchmark for the development of advanced recommendation algorithms in real-world scenarios, bridging the gap between academia and industry and propelling the study of C2C recommendations.

  • 6 authors
·
Feb 21, 2024 1

The multi-modal universe of fast-fashion: the Visuelle 2.0 benchmark

We present Visuelle 2.0, the first dataset useful for facing diverse prediction problems that a fast-fashion company has to manage routinely. Furthermore, we demonstrate how the use of computer vision is substantial in this scenario. Visuelle 2.0 contains data for 6 seasons / 5355 clothing products of Nuna Lie, a famous Italian company with hundreds of shops located in different areas within the country. In particular, we focus on a specific prediction problem, namely short-observation new product sale forecasting (SO-fore). SO-fore assumes that the season has started and a set of new products is on the shelves of the different stores. The goal is to forecast the sales for a particular horizon, given a short, available past (few weeks), since no earlier statistics are available. To be successful, SO-fore approaches should capture this short past and exploit other modalities or exogenous data. To these aims, Visuelle 2.0 is equipped with disaggregated data at the item-shop level and multi-modal information for each clothing item, allowing computer vision approaches to come into play. The main message that we deliver is that the use of image data with deep networks boosts performances obtained when using the time series in long-term forecasting scenarios, ameliorating the WAPE and MAE by up to 5.48% and 7% respectively compared to competitive baseline methods. The dataset is available at https://humaticslab.github.io/forecasting/visuelle

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 14, 2022

Context is Key: A Benchmark for Forecasting with Essential Textual Information

Forecasting is a critical task in decision-making across numerous domains. While historical numerical data provide a start, they fail to convey the complete context for reliable and accurate predictions. Human forecasters frequently rely on additional information, such as background knowledge and constraints, which can efficiently be communicated through natural language. However, in spite of recent progress with LLM-based forecasters, their ability to effectively integrate this textual information remains an open question. To address this, we introduce "Context is Key" (CiK), a time-series forecasting benchmark that pairs numerical data with diverse types of carefully crafted textual context, requiring models to integrate both modalities; crucially, every task in CiK requires understanding textual context to be solved successfully. We evaluate a range of approaches, including statistical models, time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasters, and propose a simple yet effective LLM prompting method that outperforms all other tested methods on our benchmark. Our experiments highlight the importance of incorporating contextual information, demonstrate surprising performance when using LLM-based forecasting models, and also reveal some of their critical shortcomings. This benchmark aims to advance multimodal forecasting by promoting models that are both accurate and accessible to decision-makers with varied technical expertise. The benchmark can be visualized at https://servicenow.github.io/context-is-key-forecasting/v0/.

  • 11 authors
·
Oct 24, 2024