Daily Papers

Statistical shape modeling (SSM) enables population-based quantitative analysis of anatomical shapes, informing clinical diagnosis. Deep learning approaches predict correspondence-based SSM directly from unsegmented 3D images but require calibrated uncertainty quantification, motivating Bayesian formulations. Variational information bottleneck DeepSSM (VIB-DeepSSM) is an effective, principled framework for predicting probabilistic shapes of anatomy from images with aleatoric uncertainty quantification. However, VIB is only half-Bayesian and lacks epistemic uncertainty inference. We derive a fully Bayesian VIB formulation and demonstrate the efficacy of two scalable implementation approaches: concrete dropout and batch ensemble. Additionally, we introduce a novel combination of the two that further enhances uncertainty calibration via multimodal marginalization. Experiments on synthetic shapes and left atrium data demonstrate that the fully Bayesian VIB network predicts SSM from images with improved uncertainty reasoning without sacrificing accuracy.

Missing instances in time series data impose a significant challenge to deep learning models, particularly in regression tasks. In the Earth Observation field, satellite failure or cloud occlusion frequently results in missing time-steps, introducing uncertainties in the predicted output and causing a decline in predictive performance. While many studies address missing time-steps through data augmentation to improve model robustness, the uncertainty arising at the input level is commonly overlooked. To address this gap, we introduce Monte Carlo Temporal Dropout (MC-TD), a method that explicitly accounts for input-level uncertainty by randomly dropping time-steps during inference using a predefined dropout ratio, thereby simulating the effect of missing data. To bypass the need for costly searches for the optimal dropout ratio, we extend this approach with Monte Carlo Concrete Temporal Dropout (MC-ConcTD), a method that learns the optimal dropout distribution directly. Both MC-TD and MC-ConcTD are applied during inference, leveraging Monte Carlo sampling for uncertainty quantification. Experiments on three EO time-series datasets demonstrate that MC-ConcTD improves predictive performance and uncertainty calibration compared to existing approaches. Additionally, we highlight the advantages of adaptive dropout tuning over manual selection, making uncertainty quantification more robust and accessible for EO applications.

Dropout is a simple but efficient regularization technique for achieving better generalization of deep neural networks (DNNs); hence it is widely used in tasks based on DNNs. During training, dropout randomly discards a portion of the neurons to avoid overfitting. This paper presents an enhanced dropout technique, which we call multi-sample dropout, for both accelerating training and improving generalization over the original dropout. The original dropout creates a randomly selected subset (called a dropout sample) from the input in each training iteration while the multi-sample dropout creates multiple dropout samples. The loss is calculated for each sample, and then the sample losses are averaged to obtain the final loss. This technique can be easily implemented by duplicating a part of the network after the dropout layer while sharing the weights among the duplicated fully connected layers. Experimental results using image classification tasks including ImageNet, CIFAR-10, and CIFAR-100 showed that multi-sample dropout accelerates training. Moreover, the networks trained using multi-sample dropout achieved lower error rates compared to networks trained with the original dropout. The additional computation cost due to the duplicated operations is not significant for deep convolutional networks because most of the computation time is consumed in the convolution layers before the dropout layer, which are not duplicated.