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Nov 25

Selective Machine Learning of the Average Treatment Effect with an Invalid Instrumental Variable

Instrumental variable methods have been widely used to identify causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. A key identification condition known as the exclusion restriction states that the instrument cannot have a direct effect on the outcome which is not mediated by the exposure in view. In the health and social sciences, such an assumption is often not credible. To address this concern, we consider identification conditions of the population average treatment effect with an invalid instrumental variable which does not satisfy the exclusion restriction, and derive the efficient influence function targeting the identifying functional under a nonparametric observed data model. We propose a novel multiply robust locally efficient estimator of the average treatment effect that is consistent in the union of multiple parametric nuisance models, as well as a multiply debiased machine learning estimator for which the nuisance parameters are estimated using generic machine learning methods, that effectively exploit various forms of linear or nonlinear structured sparsity in the nuisance parameter space. When one cannot be confident that any of these machine learners is consistent at sufficiently fast rates to ensure n-consistency for the average treatment effect, we introduce a new criteria for selective machine learning which leverages the multiple robustness property in order to ensure small bias. The proposed methods are illustrated through extensive simulations and a data analysis evaluating the causal effect of 401(k) participation on savings.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 27, 2019

Beyond monoculture: Polydisperse moment methods for sub-stellar atmosphere cloud microphysics II. A three-moment gamma distribution formulation for GCM applications

Context. Understanding how the shape of cloud particle size distributions affects the atmospheric properties of sub-stellar atmospheres is a key area to explore, particularly in the JWST era of broad wavelength coverage, where observations are sensitive to particle size distributions. It is therefore important to elucidate how underlying cloud microphysical processes influence the size distribution, in order to better understand how clouds affect observed atmospheric properties. Aims. In this follow-up paper, we aim to extend our sub-stellar atmosphere microphysical cloud formation framework from Paper I to include effects of assuming a polydisperse gamma particle size distribution, requiring a three-moment solution set of equations. Methods. We develop a three-moment framework for sub-stellar mineral cloud particle microphysical nucleation, condensation, evaporation and collisional growth assuming a gamma distribution. As in the previous paper, we demonstrate the effects of polydispersity using a simple one-dimensional Y-dwarf KCl cloud formation scenario, and compare the results with the monodisperse case. Results. Our three-moment scheme provides a generalised framework applicable to any size distribution with a defined moment generation expression. In our test case, we show that the gamma distribution evolves with altitude, initially broad at the cloud base and narrowing at lower pressures. We find that differences between the gamma and monodisperse cloud structures can be significant, depending on the surface gravity of the atmosphere. Conclusions. We present a self-consistent framework for including the effects of polydispersity for sub-stellar microphysical cloud studies using the moment method.

  • 2 authors
·
Jul 17

VLANet: Video-Language Alignment Network for Weakly-Supervised Video Moment Retrieval

Video Moment Retrieval (VMR) is a task to localize the temporal moment in untrimmed video specified by natural language query. For VMR, several methods that require full supervision for training have been proposed. Unfortunately, acquiring a large number of training videos with labeled temporal boundaries for each query is a labor-intensive process. This paper explores methods for performing VMR in a weakly-supervised manner (wVMR): training is performed without temporal moment labels but only with the text query that describes a segment of the video. Existing methods on wVMR generate multi-scale proposals and apply query-guided attention mechanisms to highlight the most relevant proposal. To leverage the weak supervision, contrastive learning is used which predicts higher scores for the correct video-query pairs than for the incorrect pairs. It has been observed that a large number of candidate proposals, coarse query representation, and one-way attention mechanism lead to blurry attention maps which limit the localization performance. To handle this issue, Video-Language Alignment Network (VLANet) is proposed that learns sharper attention by pruning out spurious candidate proposals and applying a multi-directional attention mechanism with fine-grained query representation. The Surrogate Proposal Selection module selects a proposal based on the proximity to the query in the joint embedding space, and thus substantially reduces candidate proposals which leads to lower computation load and sharper attention. Next, the Cascaded Cross-modal Attention module considers dense feature interactions and multi-directional attention flow to learn the multi-modal alignment. VLANet is trained end-to-end using contrastive loss which enforces semantically similar videos and queries to gather. The experiments show that the method achieves state-of-the-art performance on Charades-STA and DiDeMo datasets.

  • 6 authors
·
Aug 24, 2020

Tuning Pre-trained Model via Moment Probing

Recently, efficient fine-tuning of large-scale pre-trained models has attracted increasing research interests, where linear probing (LP) as a fundamental module is involved in exploiting the final representations for task-dependent classification. However, most of the existing methods focus on how to effectively introduce a few of learnable parameters, and little work pays attention to the commonly used LP module. In this paper, we propose a novel Moment Probing (MP) method to further explore the potential of LP. Distinguished from LP which builds a linear classification head based on the mean of final features (e.g., word tokens for ViT) or classification tokens, our MP performs a linear classifier on feature distribution, which provides the stronger representation ability by exploiting richer statistical information inherent in features. Specifically, we represent feature distribution by its characteristic function, which is efficiently approximated by using first- and second-order moments of features. Furthermore, we propose a multi-head convolutional cross-covariance (MHC^3) to compute second-order moments in an efficient and effective manner. By considering that MP could affect feature learning, we introduce a partially shared module to learn two recalibrating parameters (PSRP) for backbones based on MP, namely MP_{+}. Extensive experiments on ten benchmarks using various models show that our MP significantly outperforms LP and is competitive with counterparts at less training cost, while our MP_{+} achieves state-of-the-art performance.

  • 6 authors
·
Jul 21, 2023

Reinforcement Learning for Adaptive Time-Stepping in the Chaotic Gravitational Three-Body Problem

Many problems in astrophysics cover multiple orders of magnitude in spatial and temporal scales. While simulating systems that experience rapid changes in these conditions, it is essential to adapt the (time-) step size to capture the behavior of the system during those rapid changes and use a less accurate time step at other, less demanding, moments. We encounter three problems with traditional methods. Firstly, making such changes requires expert knowledge of the astrophysics as well as of the details of the numerical implementation. Secondly, some parameters that determine the time-step size are fixed throughout the simulation, which means that they do not adapt to the rapidly changing conditions of the problem. Lastly, we would like the choice of time-step size to balance accuracy and computation effort. We address these challenges with Reinforcement Learning by training it to select the time-step size dynamically. We use the integration of a system of three equal-mass bodies that move due to their mutual gravity as an example of its application. With our method, the selected integration parameter adapts to the specific requirements of the problem, both in terms of computation time and accuracy while eliminating the expert knowledge needed to set up these simulations. Our method produces results competitive to existing methods and improve the results found with the most commonly-used values of time-step parameter. This method can be applied to other integrators without further retraining. We show that this extrapolation works for variable time-step integrators but does not perform to the desired accuracy for fixed time-step integrators.

  • 2 authors
·
Feb 18

Fixed-Budget Differentially Private Best Arm Identification

We study best arm identification (BAI) in linear bandits in the fixed-budget regime under differential privacy constraints, when the arm rewards are supported on the unit interval. Given a finite budget T and a privacy parameter varepsilon>0, the goal is to minimise the error probability in finding the arm with the largest mean after T sampling rounds, subject to the constraint that the policy of the decision maker satisfies a certain {\em varepsilon-differential privacy} (varepsilon-DP) constraint. We construct a policy satisfying the varepsilon-DP constraint (called {\sc DP-BAI}) by proposing the principle of {\em maximum absolute determinants}, and derive an upper bound on its error probability. Furthermore, we derive a minimax lower bound on the error probability, and demonstrate that the lower and the upper bounds decay exponentially in T, with exponents in the two bounds matching order-wise in (a) the sub-optimality gaps of the arms, (b) varepsilon, and (c) the problem complexity that is expressible as the sum of two terms, one characterising the complexity of standard fixed-budget BAI (without privacy constraints), and the other accounting for the varepsilon-DP constraint. Additionally, we present some auxiliary results that contribute to the derivation of the lower bound on the error probability. These results, we posit, may be of independent interest and could prove instrumental in proving lower bounds on error probabilities in several other bandit problems. Whereas prior works provide results for BAI in the fixed-budget regime without privacy constraints or in the fixed-confidence regime with privacy constraints, our work fills the gap in the literature by providing the results for BAI in the fixed-budget regime under the varepsilon-DP constraint.

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 17, 2024

Hierarchical Video-Moment Retrieval and Step-Captioning

There is growing interest in searching for information from large video corpora. Prior works have studied relevant tasks, such as text-based video retrieval, moment retrieval, video summarization, and video captioning in isolation, without an end-to-end setup that can jointly search from video corpora and generate summaries. Such an end-to-end setup would allow for many interesting applications, e.g., a text-based search that finds a relevant video from a video corpus, extracts the most relevant moment from that video, and segments the moment into important steps with captions. To address this, we present the HiREST (HIerarchical REtrieval and STep-captioning) dataset and propose a new benchmark that covers hierarchical information retrieval and visual/textual stepwise summarization from an instructional video corpus. HiREST consists of 3.4K text-video pairs from an instructional video dataset, where 1.1K videos have annotations of moment spans relevant to text query and breakdown of each moment into key instruction steps with caption and timestamps (totaling 8.6K step captions). Our hierarchical benchmark consists of video retrieval, moment retrieval, and two novel moment segmentation and step captioning tasks. In moment segmentation, models break down a video moment into instruction steps and identify start-end boundaries. In step captioning, models generate a textual summary for each step. We also present starting point task-specific and end-to-end joint baseline models for our new benchmark. While the baseline models show some promising results, there still exists large room for future improvement by the community. Project website: https://hirest-cvpr2023.github.io

  • 7 authors
·
Mar 28, 2023