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Oct 28

Rethinking Conventional Wisdom in Machine Learning: From Generalization to Scaling

The remarkable success of large language pretraining and the discovery of scaling laws signify a paradigm shift in machine learning. Notably, the primary objective has evolved from minimizing generalization error to reducing approximation error, and the most effective strategy has transitioned from regularization (in a broad sense) to scaling up models. This raises a critical question: Do the established principles that proved successful in the generalization-centric era remain valid in this new era of scaling? This paper examines several influential regularization-based principles that may no longer hold true in the scaling-centric, large language model (LLM) era. These principles include explicit L2 regularization and implicit regularization through small batch sizes and large learning rates. Additionally, we identify a new phenomenon termed ``scaling law crossover,'' where two scaling curves intersect at a certain scale, implying that methods effective at smaller scales may not generalize to larger ones. Together, these observations highlight two fundamental questions within this new paradigm: bullet Guiding Principles for Scaling: If regularization is no longer the primary guiding principle for model design, what new principles are emerging to guide scaling? bullet Model Comparison at Scale: How to reliably and effectively compare models at the scale where only a single experiment is feasible?

  • 1 authors
·
Sep 23, 2024

LIMO: Less is More for Reasoning

We present a fundamental discovery that challenges our understanding of how complex reasoning emerges in large language models. While conventional wisdom suggests that sophisticated reasoning tasks demand extensive training data (>100,000 examples), we demonstrate that complex mathematical reasoning abilities can be effectively elicited with surprisingly few examples. Through comprehensive experiments, our proposed model LIMO demonstrates unprecedented performance in mathematical reasoning. With merely 817 curated training samples, LIMO achieves 57.1% accuracy on AIME and 94.8% on MATH, improving from previous SFT-based models' 6.5% and 59.2% respectively, while only using 1% of the training data required by previous approaches. LIMO demonstrates exceptional out-of-distribution generalization, achieving 40.5% absolute improvement across 10 diverse benchmarks, outperforming models trained on 100x more data, challenging the notion that SFT leads to memorization rather than generalization. Based on these results, we propose the Less-Is-More Reasoning Hypothesis (LIMO Hypothesis): In foundation models where domain knowledge has been comprehensively encoded during pre-training, sophisticated reasoning capabilities can emerge through minimal but precisely orchestrated demonstrations of cognitive processes. This hypothesis posits that the elicitation threshold for complex reasoning is determined by two key factors: (1) the completeness of the model's encoded knowledge foundation during pre-training, and (2) the effectiveness of post-training examples as "cognitive templates" that show the model how to utilize its knowledge base to solve complex reasoning tasks. To facilitate reproducibility and future research in data-efficient reasoning, we release LIMO as a comprehensive open-source suite at https://github.com/GAIR-NLP/LIMO.

  • 6 authors
·
Feb 5 4

Evolving Prompts In-Context: An Open-ended, Self-replicating Perspective

We propose a novel prompt design paradigm that challenges conventional wisdom in large language model (LLM) prompting. While conventional wisdom prioritizes well-crafted instructions and demonstrations for in-context learning (ICL), we show that pruning random demonstrations into seemingly incoherent "gibberish" can remarkably improve performance across diverse tasks. Notably, the "gibberish" always matches or surpasses state-of-the-art automatic prompt optimization techniques, achieving substantial gains regardless of LLM alignment. Nevertheless, discovering an effective pruning strategy is non-trivial, as existing attribution methods and prompt compression algorithms fail to deliver robust results, let alone human intuition. In terms of this, we propose a self-discover prompt optimization framework, PromptQuine, an evolutionary search framework that automatically searches for the pruning strategy by itself using only low-data regimes. Much like the emergent complexity in nature--such as symbiosis and self-organization--arising in response to resource constraints, our framework evolves and refines unconventional yet highly effective prompts by leveraging only the tokens present within the context. We demonstrate its effectiveness across classification, multi-choice question answering, generation and math reasoning tasks across LLMs, while achieving decent runtime efficiency. We hope our findings can guide mechanistic studies on in-context learning, and provide a call to action, to pave the way for more open-ended search algorithms for more effective LLM prompting.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 22 2

SparseByteNN: A Novel Mobile Inference Acceleration Framework Based on Fine-Grained Group Sparsity

To address the challenge of increasing network size, researchers have developed sparse models through network pruning. However, maintaining model accuracy while achieving significant speedups on general computing devices remains an open problem. In this paper, we present a novel mobile inference acceleration framework SparseByteNN, which leverages fine-grained kernel sparsity to achieve real-time execution as well as high accuracy. Our framework consists of two parts: (a) A fine-grained kernel sparsity schema with a sparsity granularity between structured pruning and unstructured pruning. It designs multiple sparse patterns for different operators. Combined with our proposed whole network rearrangement strategy, the schema achieves a high compression rate and high precision at the same time. (b) Inference engine co-optimized with the sparse pattern. The conventional wisdom is that this reduction in theoretical FLOPs does not translate into real-world efficiency gains. We aim to correct this misconception by introducing a family of efficient sparse kernels for ARM and WebAssembly. Equipped with our efficient implementation of sparse primitives, we show that sparse versions of MobileNet-v1 outperform strong dense baselines on the efficiency-accuracy curve. Experimental results on Qualcomm 855 show that for 30% sparse MobileNet-v1, SparseByteNN achieves 1.27x speedup over the dense version and 1.29x speedup over the state-of-the-art sparse inference engine MNN with a slight accuracy drop of 0.224%. The source code of SparseByteNN will be available at https://github.com/lswzjuer/SparseByteNN

  • 10 authors
·
Oct 30, 2023

Rethinking Reward Models for Multi-Domain Test-Time Scaling

The reliability of large language models (LLMs) during test-time scaling is often assessed with external verifiers or reward models that distinguish correct reasoning from flawed logic. Prior work generally assumes that process reward models (PRMs), which score every intermediate reasoning step, outperform outcome reward models (ORMs) that assess only the final answer. This view is based mainly on evidence from narrow, math-adjacent domains. We present the first unified evaluation of four reward model variants, discriminative ORM and PRM (\DisORM, \DisPRM) and generative ORM and PRM (\GenORM, \GenPRM), across 14 diverse domains. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find that (i) \DisORM performs on par with \DisPRM, (ii) \GenPRM is not competitive, and (iii) overall, \GenORM is the most robust, yielding significant and consistent gains across every tested domain. We attribute this to PRM-style stepwise scoring, which inherits label noise from LLM auto-labeling and has difficulty evaluating long reasoning trajectories, including those involving self-correcting reasoning. Our theoretical analysis shows that step-wise aggregation compounds errors as reasoning length grows, and our empirical observations confirm this effect. These findings challenge the prevailing assumption that fine-grained supervision is always better and support generative outcome verification for multi-domain deployment. We publicly release our code, datasets, and checkpoints at https://github.com/db-Lee/Multi-RM{\small\texttt{https://github.com/db-Lee/Multi-RM}} to facilitate future research in multi-domain settings.

Rewards Are Enough for Fast Photo-Realistic Text-to-image Generation

Aligning generated images to complicated text prompts and human preferences is a central challenge in Artificial Intelligence-Generated Content (AIGC). With reward-enhanced diffusion distillation emerging as a promising approach that boosts controllability and fidelity of text-to-image models, we identify a fundamental paradigm shift: as conditions become more specific and reward signals stronger, the rewards themselves become the dominant force in generation. In contrast, the diffusion losses serve as an overly expensive form of regularization. To thoroughly validate our hypothesis, we introduce R0, a novel conditional generation approach via regularized reward maximization. Instead of relying on tricky diffusion distillation losses, R0 proposes a new perspective that treats image generations as an optimization problem in data space which aims to search for valid images that have high compositional rewards. By innovative designs of the generator parameterization and proper regularization techniques, we train state-of-the-art few-step text-to-image generative models with R0 at scales. Our results challenge the conventional wisdom of diffusion post-training and conditional generation by demonstrating that rewards play a dominant role in scenarios with complex conditions. We hope our findings can contribute to further research into human-centric and reward-centric generation paradigms across the broader field of AIGC. Code is available at https://github.com/Luo-Yihong/R0.

  • 5 authors
·
Mar 17 2

Beginning with You: Perceptual-Initialization Improves Vision-Language Representation and Alignment

We introduce Perceptual-Initialization (PI), a paradigm shift in visual representation learning that incorporates human perceptual structure during the initialization phase rather than as a downstream fine-tuning step. By integrating human-derived triplet embeddings from the NIGHTS dataset to initialize a CLIP vision encoder, followed by self-supervised learning on YFCC15M, our approach demonstrates significant zero-shot performance improvements, without any task-specific fine-tuning, across 29 zero shot classification and 2 retrieval benchmarks. On ImageNet-1K, zero-shot gains emerge after approximately 15 epochs of pretraining. Benefits are observed across datasets of various scales, with improvements manifesting at different stages of the pretraining process depending on dataset characteristics. Our approach consistently enhances zero-shot top-1 accuracy, top-5 accuracy, and retrieval recall (e.g., R@1, R@5) across these diverse evaluation tasks, without requiring any adaptation to target domains. These findings challenge the conventional wisdom of using human-perceptual data primarily for fine-tuning and demonstrate that embedding human perceptual structure during early representation learning yields more capable and vision-language aligned systems that generalize immediately to unseen tasks. Our work shows that "beginning with you", starting with human perception, provides a stronger foundation for general-purpose vision-language intelligence.

  • 7 authors
·
May 20

Is PRM Necessary? Problem-Solving RL Implicitly Induces PRM Capability in LLMs

The development of reasoning capabilities represents a critical frontier in large language models (LLMs) research, where reinforcement learning (RL) and process reward models (PRMs) have emerged as predominant methodological frameworks. Contrary to conventional wisdom, empirical evidence from DeepSeek-R1 demonstrates that pure RL training focused on mathematical problem-solving can progressively enhance reasoning abilities without PRM integration, challenging the perceived necessity of process supervision. In this study, we conduct a systematic investigation of the relationship between RL training and PRM capabilities. Our findings demonstrate that problem-solving proficiency and process supervision capabilities represent complementary dimensions of reasoning that co-evolve synergistically during pure RL training. In particular, current PRMs underperform simple baselines like majority voting when applied to state-of-the-art models such as DeepSeek-R1 and QwQ-32B. To address this limitation, we propose Self-PRM, an introspective framework in which models autonomously evaluate and rerank their generated solutions through self-reward mechanisms. Although Self-PRM consistently improves the accuracy of the benchmark (particularly with larger sample sizes), analysis exposes persistent challenges: The approach exhibits low precision (<10\%) on difficult problems, frequently misclassifying flawed solutions as valid. These analyses underscore the need for continued RL scaling to improve reward alignment and introspective accuracy. Overall, our findings suggest that PRM may not be essential for enhancing complex reasoning, as pure RL not only improves problem-solving skills but also inherently fosters robust PRM capabilities. We hope these findings provide actionable insights for building more reliable and self-aware complex reasoning models.

  • 9 authors
·
May 16

Spurious Feature Diversification Improves Out-of-distribution Generalization

Generalization to out-of-distribution (OOD) data is a critical challenge in machine learning. Ensemble-based methods, like weight space ensembles that interpolate model parameters, have been shown to achieve superior OOD performance. However, the underlying mechanism for their effectiveness remains unclear. In this study, we closely examine WiSE-FT, a popular weight space ensemble method that interpolates between a pre-trained and a fine-tuned model. We observe an unexpected phenomenon, in which WiSE-FT successfully corrects many cases where each individual model makes incorrect predictions, which contributes significantly to its OOD effectiveness. To gain further insights, we conduct theoretical analysis in a multi-class setting with a large number of spurious features. Our analysis predicts the above phenomenon and it further shows that ensemble-based models reduce prediction errors in the OOD settings by utilizing a more diverse set of spurious features. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that focuses on learning invariant features for better OOD performance, our findings suggest that incorporating a large number of diverse spurious features weakens their individual contributions, leading to improved overall OOD generalization performance. Empirically we demonstrate the effectiveness of utilizing diverse spurious features on a MultiColorMNIST dataset, and our experimental results are consistent with the theoretical analysis. Building upon the new theoretical insights into the efficacy of ensemble methods, we further identify an issue of WiSE-FT caused by the overconfidence of fine-tuned models in OOD situations. This overconfidence magnifies the fine-tuned model's incorrect prediction, leading to deteriorated OOD ensemble performance. To remedy this problem, we propose a novel method called BAlaNced averaGing (BANG), which significantly enhances the OOD performance of WiSE-FT.

  • 8 authors
·
Sep 29, 2023

Same Pre-training Loss, Better Downstream: Implicit Bias Matters for Language Models

Language modeling on large-scale datasets leads to impressive performance gains on various downstream language tasks. The validation pre-training loss (or perplexity in autoregressive language modeling) is often used as the evaluation metric when developing language models since the pre-training loss tends to be well-correlated with downstream performance (which is itself difficult to evaluate comprehensively). Contrary to this conventional wisdom, this paper shows that 1) pre-training loss cannot fully explain downstream performance and 2) flatness of the model is well-correlated with downstream performance where pre-training loss is not. On simplified datasets, we identify three ways to produce models with the same (statistically optimal) pre-training loss but different downstream performance: continue pre-training after convergence, increasing the model size, and changing the training algorithm. These experiments demonstrate the existence of implicit bias of pre-training algorithms/optimizers -- among models with the same minimal pre-training loss, they implicitly prefer more transferable ones. Toward understanding this implicit bias, we prove that SGD with standard mini-batch noise implicitly prefers flatter minima in language models, and empirically observe a strong correlation between flatness and downstream performance among models with the same minimal pre-training loss. We also prove in a synthetic language setting that among the models with the minimal pre-training loss, the flattest model transfers to downstream tasks.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 25, 2022

Large Language Models Can Be Strong Differentially Private Learners

Differentially Private (DP) learning has seen limited success for building large deep learning models of text, and straightforward attempts at applying Differentially Private Stochastic Gradient Descent (DP-SGD) to NLP tasks have resulted in large performance drops and high computational overhead. We show that this performance drop can be mitigated with (1) the use of large pretrained language models; (2) non-standard hyperparameters that suit DP optimization; and (3) fine-tuning objectives which are aligned with the pretraining procedure. With the above, we obtain NLP models that outperform state-of-the-art DP-trained models under the same privacy budget and strong non-private baselines -- by directly fine-tuning pretrained models with DP optimization on moderately-sized corpora. To address the computational challenge of running DP-SGD with large Transformers, we propose a memory saving technique that allows clipping in DP-SGD to run without instantiating per-example gradients for any linear layer in the model. The technique enables privately training Transformers with almost the same memory cost as non-private training at a modest run-time overhead. Contrary to conventional wisdom that DP optimization fails at learning high-dimensional models (due to noise that scales with dimension) empirical results reveal that private learning with pretrained language models doesn't tend to suffer from dimension-dependent performance degradation. Code to reproduce results can be found at https://github.com/lxuechen/private-transformers.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 11, 2021

The Pitfalls of Simplicity Bias in Neural Networks

Several works have proposed Simplicity Bias (SB)---the tendency of standard training procedures such as Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) to find simple models---to justify why neural networks generalize well [Arpit et al. 2017, Nakkiran et al. 2019, Soudry et al. 2018]. However, the precise notion of simplicity remains vague. Furthermore, previous settings that use SB to theoretically justify why neural networks generalize well do not simultaneously capture the non-robustness of neural networks---a widely observed phenomenon in practice [Goodfellow et al. 2014, Jo and Bengio 2017]. We attempt to reconcile SB and the superior standard generalization of neural networks with the non-robustness observed in practice by designing datasets that (a) incorporate a precise notion of simplicity, (b) comprise multiple predictive features with varying levels of simplicity, and (c) capture the non-robustness of neural networks trained on real data. Through theory and empirics on these datasets, we make four observations: (i) SB of SGD and variants can be extreme: neural networks can exclusively rely on the simplest feature and remain invariant to all predictive complex features. (ii) The extreme aspect of SB could explain why seemingly benign distribution shifts and small adversarial perturbations significantly degrade model performance. (iii) Contrary to conventional wisdom, SB can also hurt generalization on the same data distribution, as SB persists even when the simplest feature has less predictive power than the more complex features. (iv) Common approaches to improve generalization and robustness---ensembles and adversarial training---can fail in mitigating SB and its pitfalls. Given the role of SB in training neural networks, we hope that the proposed datasets and methods serve as an effective testbed to evaluate novel algorithmic approaches aimed at avoiding the pitfalls of SB.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 13, 2020

Gradient is All You Need?

In this paper we provide a novel analytical perspective on the theoretical understanding of gradient-based learning algorithms by interpreting consensus-based optimization (CBO), a recently proposed multi-particle derivative-free optimization method, as a stochastic relaxation of gradient descent. Remarkably, we observe that through communication of the particles, CBO exhibits a stochastic gradient descent (SGD)-like behavior despite solely relying on evaluations of the objective function. The fundamental value of such link between CBO and SGD lies in the fact that CBO is provably globally convergent to global minimizers for ample classes of nonsmooth and nonconvex objective functions, hence, on the one side, offering a novel explanation for the success of stochastic relaxations of gradient descent. On the other side, contrary to the conventional wisdom for which zero-order methods ought to be inefficient or not to possess generalization abilities, our results unveil an intrinsic gradient descent nature of such heuristics. This viewpoint furthermore complements previous insights into the working principles of CBO, which describe the dynamics in the mean-field limit through a nonlinear nonlocal partial differential equation that allows to alleviate complexities of the nonconvex function landscape. Our proofs leverage a completely nonsmooth analysis, which combines a novel quantitative version of the Laplace principle (log-sum-exp trick) and the minimizing movement scheme (proximal iteration). In doing so, we furnish useful and precise insights that explain how stochastic perturbations of gradient descent overcome energy barriers and reach deep levels of nonconvex functions. Instructive numerical illustrations support the provided theoretical insights.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 16, 2023

Preference Learning Algorithms Do Not Learn Preference Rankings

Preference learning algorithms (e.g., RLHF and DPO) are frequently used to steer LLMs to produce generations that are more preferred by humans, but our understanding of their inner workings is still limited. In this work, we study the conventional wisdom that preference learning trains models to assign higher likelihoods to more preferred outputs than less preferred outputs, measured via ranking accuracy. Surprisingly, we find that most state-of-the-art preference-tuned models achieve a ranking accuracy of less than 60% on common preference datasets. We furthermore derive the idealized ranking accuracy that a preference-tuned LLM would achieve if it optimized the DPO or RLHF objective perfectly. We demonstrate that existing models exhibit a significant alignment gap -- i.e., a gap between the observed and idealized ranking accuracies. We attribute this discrepancy to the DPO objective, which is empirically and theoretically ill-suited to fix even mild ranking errors in the reference model, and derive a simple and efficient formula for quantifying the difficulty of learning a given preference datapoint. Finally, we demonstrate that ranking accuracy strongly correlates with the empirically popular win rate metric when the model is close to the reference model used in the objective, shedding further light on the differences between on-policy (e.g., RLHF) and off-policy (e.g., DPO) preference learning algorithms.

  • 7 authors
·
May 29, 2024

Precision at Scale: Domain-Specific Datasets On-Demand

In the realm of self-supervised learning (SSL), conventional wisdom has gravitated towards the utility of massive, general domain datasets for pretraining robust backbones. In this paper, we challenge this idea by exploring if it is possible to bridge the scale between general-domain datasets and (traditionally smaller) domain-specific datasets to reduce the current performance gap. More specifically, we propose Precision at Scale (PaS), a novel method for the autonomous creation of domain-specific datasets on-demand. The modularity of the PaS pipeline enables leveraging state-of-the-art foundational and generative models to create a collection of images of any given size belonging to any given domain with minimal human intervention. Extensive analysis in two complex domains, proves the superiority of PaS datasets over existing traditional domain-specific datasets in terms of diversity, scale, and effectiveness in training visual transformers and convolutional neural networks. Most notably, we prove that automatically generated domain-specific datasets lead to better pretraining than large-scale supervised datasets such as ImageNet-1k and ImageNet-21k. Concretely, models trained on domain-specific datasets constructed by PaS pipeline, beat ImageNet-1k pretrained backbones by at least 12% in all the considered domains and classification tasks and lead to better food domain performance than supervised ImageNet-21k pretrain while being 12 times smaller. Code repository: https://github.com/jesusmolrdv/Precision-at-Scale/

  • 5 authors
·
Jul 3, 2024

Fast Sparse ConvNets

Historically, the pursuit of efficient inference has been one of the driving forces behind research into new deep learning architectures and building blocks. Some recent examples include: the squeeze-and-excitation module, depthwise separable convolutions in Xception, and the inverted bottleneck in MobileNet v2. Notably, in all of these cases, the resulting building blocks enabled not only higher efficiency, but also higher accuracy, and found wide adoption in the field. In this work, we further expand the arsenal of efficient building blocks for neural network architectures; but instead of combining standard primitives (such as convolution), we advocate for the replacement of these dense primitives with their sparse counterparts. While the idea of using sparsity to decrease the parameter count is not new, the conventional wisdom is that this reduction in theoretical FLOPs does not translate into real-world efficiency gains. We aim to correct this misconception by introducing a family of efficient sparse kernels for ARM and WebAssembly, which we open-source for the benefit of the community as part of the XNNPACK library. Equipped with our efficient implementation of sparse primitives, we show that sparse versions of MobileNet v1, MobileNet v2 and EfficientNet architectures substantially outperform strong dense baselines on the efficiency-accuracy curve. On Snapdragon 835 our sparse networks outperform their dense equivalents by 1.3-2.4times -- equivalent to approximately one entire generation of MobileNet-family improvement. We hope that our findings will facilitate wider adoption of sparsity as a tool for creating efficient and accurate deep learning architectures.

  • 4 authors
·
Nov 21, 2019

Inverse-LLaVA: Eliminating Alignment Pre-training Through Text-to-Vision Mapping

Traditional multimodal learning approaches require expensive alignment pre-training to bridge vision and language modalities, typically projecting visual features into discrete text token spaces. We challenge both fundamental assumptions underlying this paradigm by proposing Inverse-LLaVA, a novel approach that eliminates alignment pre-training entirely while inverting the conventional mapping direction. Rather than projecting visual features to text space, our method maps text embeddings into continuous visual representation space and performs fusion within transformer intermediate layers. Through selective additive components in attention mechanisms, we enable dynamic integration of visual and textual representations without requiring massive image-text alignment datasets. Comprehensive experiments across nine multimodal benchmarks demonstrate nuanced performance trade-offs: Inverse-LLaVA achieves notable improvements on reasoning-intensive and cognitive tasks (MM-VET: +0.2%, VizWiz: +1.8%, ScienceQA: +0.2%, cognitive reasoning: +27.2%), while showing expected decreases in perception tasks requiring memorized visual-text associations (celebrity recognition: -49.5%, OCR: -21.3%). These results provide the first empirical evidence that alignment pre-training is not necessary for effective multimodal learning, particularly for complex reasoning tasks. Our work establishes the feasibility of a new paradigm that reduces computational requirements by 45%, challenges conventional wisdom about modality fusion, and opens new research directions for efficient multimodal architectures that preserve modality-specific characteristics. Our project website with code and additional resources is available at https://inverse-llava.github.io.

  • 2 authors
·
Aug 17 2

BigNAS: Scaling Up Neural Architecture Search with Big Single-Stage Models

Neural architecture search (NAS) has shown promising results discovering models that are both accurate and fast. For NAS, training a one-shot model has become a popular strategy to rank the relative quality of different architectures (child models) using a single set of shared weights. However, while one-shot model weights can effectively rank different network architectures, the absolute accuracies from these shared weights are typically far below those obtained from stand-alone training. To compensate, existing methods assume that the weights must be retrained, finetuned, or otherwise post-processed after the search is completed. These steps significantly increase the compute requirements and complexity of the architecture search and model deployment. In this work, we propose BigNAS, an approach that challenges the conventional wisdom that post-processing of the weights is necessary to get good prediction accuracies. Without extra retraining or post-processing steps, we are able to train a single set of shared weights on ImageNet and use these weights to obtain child models whose sizes range from 200 to 1000 MFLOPs. Our discovered model family, BigNASModels, achieve top-1 accuracies ranging from 76.5% to 80.9%, surpassing state-of-the-art models in this range including EfficientNets and Once-for-All networks without extra retraining or post-processing. We present ablative study and analysis to further understand the proposed BigNASModels.

  • 10 authors
·
Mar 24, 2020

Short-term Volatility Estimation for High Frequency Trades using Gaussian processes (GPs)

The fundamental theorem behind financial markets is that stock prices are intrinsically complex and stochastic. One of the complexities is the volatility associated with stock prices. Volatility is a tendency for prices to change unexpectedly [1]. Price volatility is often detrimental to the return economics, and thus, investors should factor it in whenever making investment decisions, choices, and temporal or permanent moves. It is, therefore, crucial to make necessary and regular short and long-term stock price volatility forecasts for the safety and economics of investors returns. These forecasts should be accurate and not misleading. Different models and methods, such as ARCH GARCH models, have been intuitively implemented to make such forecasts. However, such traditional means fail to capture the short-term volatility forecasts effectively. This paper, therefore, investigates and implements a combination of numeric and probabilistic models for short-term volatility and return forecasting for high-frequency trades. The essence is that one-day-ahead volatility forecasts were made with Gaussian Processes (GPs) applied to the outputs of a Numerical market prediction (NMP) model. Firstly, the stock price data from NMP was corrected by a GP. Since it is not easy to set price limits in a market due to its free nature and randomness, a Censored GP was used to model the relationship between the corrected stock prices and returns. Forecasting errors were evaluated using the implied and estimated data.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 17, 2023

What the HellaSwag? On the Validity of Common-Sense Reasoning Benchmarks

Common-sense reasoning is a key language model capability because it encapsulates not just specific factual knowledge but rather general language and world understanding. Measuring common-sense reasoning, therefore, is crucial for language models of different sizes and applications. One of the most widely used benchmarks for evaluating such capabilities is HellaSwag; however, in this paper, we show that it has severe construct validity issues. These issues range from basic ungrammaticality and numerous typos to misleading prompts or equally correct options. Furthermore, we show that if models are evaluated only on answer texts, or with "Lorem ipsum dolor..." instead of the question, more than 65% of model predictions remain the same, and this cannot be attributed merely to contamination. Since benchmark scores are an essential part of model selection in both research and commercial applications, these validity issues can have severe consequences. In particular, knowing that taking benchmark scores at face value is ubiquitous, inadequate evaluation leads to ill-informed decisions about models. In this paper, we thoroughly investigate critical validity issues posed by HellaSwag and illustrate them with various evaluations using generative language models of different sizes. We argue that this benchmark does not accurately measure common-sense reasoning and, therefore, should not be used for evaluation in its current state. Based on the results of our study, we propose requirements that should be met by future common-sense reasoning benchmarks. In addition, we release GoldenSwag, a corrected subset of HellaSwag, which, to our belief, facilitates acceptable common-sense reasoning evaluation.

  • 4 authors
·
Apr 10

Empirically evaluating commonsense intelligence in large language models with large-scale human judgments

Commonsense intelligence in machines is often assessed by static benchmarks that compare a model's output against human-prescribed correct labels. An important, albeit implicit, assumption of these labels is that they accurately capture what any human would think, effectively treating human common sense as homogeneous. However, recent empirical work has shown that humans vary enormously in what they consider commonsensical; thus what appears self-evident to one benchmark designer may not be so to another. Here, we propose a novel method for evaluating common sense in artificial intelligence (AI), specifically in large language models (LLMs), that incorporates empirically observed heterogeneity among humans by measuring the correspondence between a model's judgment and that of a human population. We first find that, when treated as independent survey respondents, most LLMs remain below the human median in their individual commonsense competence. Second, when used as simulators of a hypothetical population, LLMs correlate with real humans only modestly in the extent to which they agree on the same set of statements. In both cases, smaller, open-weight models are surprisingly more competitive than larger, proprietary frontier models. Our evaluation framework, which ties commonsense intelligence to its cultural basis, contributes to the growing call for adapting AI models to human collectivities that possess different, often incompatible, social stocks of knowledge.

DailyDilemmas: Revealing Value Preferences of LLMs with Quandaries of Daily Life

As we increasingly seek guidance from LLMs for decision-making in daily life, many of these decisions are not clear-cut and depend significantly on the personal values and ethical standards of the users. We present DailyDilemmas, a dataset of 1,360 moral dilemmas encountered in everyday life. Each dilemma includes two possible actions and with each action, the affected parties and human values invoked. Based on these dilemmas, we consolidated a set of human values across everyday topics e.g., interpersonal relationships, workplace, and environmental issues. We evaluated LLMs on these dilemmas to determine what action they will take and the values represented by these actions. Then, we analyzed these values through the lens of five popular theories inspired by sociology, psychology and philosophy. These theories are: World Value Survey, Moral Foundation Theory, Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs, Aristotle's Virtues, and Plutchik Wheel of Emotion. We find that LLMs are most aligned with the self-expression over survival values in terms of World Value Survey, care over loyalty in Moral Foundation Theory. Interestingly, we find large preferences differences in models for some core values such as truthfulness e.g., Mixtral-8x7B model tends to neglect it by 9.7% while GPT-4-turbo model tends to select it by 9.4%. We also study the recent guidance released by OpenAI (ModelSpec), and Anthropic (Constitutional AI) to understand how their released principles reflect their actual value prioritization when facing nuanced moral reasoning in daily-life settings. We find that end users cannot effectively steer such prioritization using system prompts.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 3, 2024

CREAK: A Dataset for Commonsense Reasoning over Entity Knowledge

Most benchmark datasets targeting commonsense reasoning focus on everyday scenarios: physical knowledge like knowing that you could fill a cup under a waterfall [Talmor et al., 2019], social knowledge like bumping into someone is awkward [Sap et al., 2019], and other generic situations. However, there is a rich space of commonsense inferences anchored to knowledge about specific entities: for example, deciding the truthfulness of a claim "Harry Potter can teach classes on how to fly on a broomstick." Can models learn to combine entity knowledge with commonsense reasoning in this fashion? We introduce CREAK, a testbed for commonsense reasoning about entity knowledge, bridging fact-checking about entities (Harry Potter is a wizard and is skilled at riding a broomstick) with commonsense inferences (if you're good at a skill you can teach others how to do it). Our dataset consists of 13k human-authored English claims about entities that are either true or false, in addition to a small contrast set. Crowdworkers can easily come up with these statements and human performance on the dataset is high (high 90s); we argue that models should be able to blend entity knowledge and commonsense reasoning to do well here. In our experiments, we focus on the closed-book setting and observe that a baseline model finetuned on existing fact verification benchmark struggles on CREAK. Training a model on CREAK improves accuracy by a substantial margin, but still falls short of human performance. Our benchmark provides a unique probe into natural language understanding models, testing both its ability to retrieve facts (e.g., who teaches at the University of Chicago?) and unstated commonsense knowledge (e.g., butlers do not yell at guests).

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 3, 2021

Common Sense Is All You Need

Artificial intelligence (AI) has made significant strides in recent years, yet it continues to struggle with a fundamental aspect of cognition present in all animals: common sense. Current AI systems, including those designed for complex tasks like autonomous driving, problem-solving challenges such as the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC), and conversational benchmarks like the Turing Test, often lack the ability to adapt to new situations without extensive prior knowledge. This manuscript argues that integrating common sense into AI systems is essential for achieving true autonomy and unlocking the full societal and commercial value of AI. We propose a shift in the order of knowledge acquisition emphasizing the importance of developing AI systems that start from minimal prior knowledge and are capable of contextual learning, adaptive reasoning, and embodiment -- even within abstract domains. Additionally, we highlight the need to rethink the AI software stack to address this foundational challenge. Without common sense, AI systems may never reach true autonomy, instead exhibiting asymptotic performance that approaches theoretical ideals like AIXI but remains unattainable in practice due to infinite resource and computation requirements. While scaling AI models and passing benchmarks like the Turing Test have brought significant advancements in applications that do not require autonomy, these approaches alone are insufficient to achieve autonomous AI with common sense. By redefining existing benchmarks and challenges to enforce constraints that require genuine common sense, and by broadening our understanding of embodiment to include both physical and abstract domains, we can encourage the development of AI systems better equipped to handle the complexities of real-world and abstract environments.

  • 1 authors
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Jan 11

Critical-Questions-of-Thought: Steering LLM reasoning with Argumentative Querying

Studies have underscored how, regardless of the recent breakthrough and swift advances in AI research, even state-of-the-art Large Language models (LLMs) continue to struggle when performing logical and mathematical reasoning. The results seem to suggest that LLMs still work as (highly advanced) data pattern identifiers, scoring poorly when attempting to generalise and solve reasoning problems the models have never previously seen or that are not close to samples presented in their training data. To address this compelling concern, this paper makes use of the notion of critical questions from the literature on argumentation theory, focusing in particular on Toulmin's model of argumentation. We show that employing these critical questions can improve the reasoning capabilities of LLMs. By probing the rationale behind the models' reasoning process, the LLM can assess whether some logical mistake is occurring and correct it before providing the final reply to the user prompt. The underlying idea is drawn from the gold standard of any valid argumentative procedure: the conclusion is valid if it is entailed by accepted premises. Or, to paraphrase such Aristotelian principle in a real-world approximation, characterised by incomplete information and presumptive logic, the conclusion is valid if not proved otherwise. This approach successfully steers the models' output through a reasoning pipeline, resulting in better performance against the baseline and its Chain-of-Thought (CoT) implementation. To this end, an extensive evaluation of the proposed approach on the MT-Bench Reasoning and Math tasks across a range of LLMs is provided.

  • 3 authors
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Dec 19, 2024

Measuring Language Model Hallucinations Through Distributional Correctness

Common evaluation paradigms for language models focus on scoring single responses through accuracy metrics or proper scoring rules, failing to capture the full richness of a model's belief state. Recent work illustrates that language models hallucinate in-part because they are optimised to be good test-takers under binary scoring schemes that reward any answer over abstention. While this insight naturally leads to penalty-based approaches, they ignore crucial distinctions in how models distribute uncertainty, for example between hedging toward incorrect answers versus hedging toward "I don't know" responses. A novel evaluation metric, the Distributional Correctness Score (DCS), is introduced to solve this problem, i.e., of not considering a model's entire probability distribution over answer choices. DCS naturally distinguishes between harmful overconfidence in wrong answers and uncertainty expressed through abstention, providing scores in an interpretable default range. Through theoretical analysis and illustrative examples, DCS is demonstrated to offer a more nuanced and aligned evaluation paradigm that incentivises models to express genuine uncertainty rather than guessing. Adapting 12 existing evaluation benchmarks to DCS's variants and measuring performance on six language models reveals that for half of the tested benchmarks scores are negative across all tested models, indicating significant tendencies towards hallucination.

  • 1 authors
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Oct 5

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)-Native Wireless Systems: A Journey Beyond 6G

Building future wireless systems that support services like digital twins (DTs) is challenging to achieve through advances to conventional technologies like meta-surfaces. While artificial intelligence (AI)-native networks promise to overcome some limitations of wireless technologies, developments still rely on AI tools like neural networks. Such tools struggle to cope with the non-trivial challenges of the network environment and the growing demands of emerging use cases. In this paper, we revisit the concept of AI-native wireless systems, equipping them with the common sense necessary to transform them into artificial general intelligence (AGI)-native systems. These systems acquire common sense by exploiting different cognitive abilities such as perception, analogy, and reasoning, that enable them to generalize and deal with unforeseen scenarios. Towards developing the components of such a system, we start by showing how the perception module can be built through abstracting real-world elements into generalizable representations. These representations are then used to create a world model, founded on principles of causality and hyper-dimensional (HD) computing, that aligns with intuitive physics and enables analogical reasoning, that define common sense. Then, we explain how methods such as integrated information theory play a role in the proposed intent-driven and objective-driven planning methods that maneuver the AGI-native network to take actions. Next, we discuss how an AGI-native network can enable use cases related to human and autonomous agents: a) analogical reasoning for next-generation DTs, b) synchronized and resilient experiences for cognitive avatars, and c) brain-level metaverse experiences like holographic teleportation. Finally, we conclude with a set of recommendations to build AGI-native systems. Ultimately, we envision this paper as a roadmap for the beyond 6G era.

  • 7 authors
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Apr 29, 2024

Symbolic Knowledge Distillation: from General Language Models to Commonsense Models

The common practice for training commonsense models has gone from-human-to-corpus-to-machine: humans author commonsense knowledge graphs in order to train commonsense models. In this work, we investigate an alternative, from-machine-to-corpus-to-machine: general language models author these commonsense knowledge graphs to train commonsense models. Our study leads to a new framework, Symbolic Knowledge Distillation. As with prior art in Knowledge Distillation (Hinton et al., 2015), our approach uses larger models to teach smaller models. A key difference is that we distill knowledge symbolically-as text-in addition to the neural model. We also distill only one aspect-the commonsense of a general language model teacher, allowing the student to be a different type, a commonsense model. Altogether, we show that careful prompt engineering and a separately trained critic model allow us to selectively distill high-quality causal commonsense from GPT-3, a general language model. Empirical results demonstrate that, for the first time, a human-authored commonsense knowledge graph is surpassed by our automatically distilled variant in all three criteria: quantity, quality, and diversity. In addition, it results in a neural commonsense model that surpasses the teacher model's commonsense capabilities despite its 100x smaller size. We apply this to the ATOMIC resource, and share our new symbolic knowledge graph and commonsense models.

  • 9 authors
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Oct 14, 2021

Distinguishing Ignorance from Error in LLM Hallucinations

Large language models (LLMs) are susceptible to hallucinations-outputs that are ungrounded, factually incorrect, or inconsistent with prior generations. We focus on close-book Question Answering (CBQA), where previous work has not fully addressed the distinction between two possible kinds of hallucinations, namely, whether the model (1) does not hold the correct answer in its parameters or (2) answers incorrectly despite having the required knowledge. We argue that distinguishing these cases is crucial for detecting and mitigating hallucinations. Specifically, case (2) may be mitigated by intervening in the model's internal computation, as the knowledge resides within the model's parameters. In contrast, in case (1) there is no parametric knowledge to leverage for mitigation, so it should be addressed by resorting to an external knowledge source or abstaining. To help distinguish between the two cases, we introduce Wrong Answer despite having Correct Knowledge (WACK), an approach for constructing model-specific datasets for the second hallucination type. Our probing experiments indicate that the two kinds of hallucinations are represented differently in the model's inner states. Next, we show that datasets constructed using WACK exhibit variations across models, demonstrating that even when models share knowledge of certain facts, they still vary in the specific examples that lead to hallucinations. Finally, we show that training a probe on our WACK datasets leads to better hallucination detection of case (2) hallucinations than using the common generic one-size-fits-all datasets. The code is available at https://github.com/technion-cs-nlp/hallucination-mitigation .

  • 4 authors
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Oct 29, 2024

Toward Inclusive Educational AI: Auditing Frontier LLMs through a Multiplexity Lens

As large language models (LLMs) like GPT-4 and Llama 3 become integral to educational contexts, concerns are mounting over the cultural biases, power imbalances, and ethical limitations embedded within these technologies. Though generative AI tools aim to enhance learning experiences, they often reflect values rooted in Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, and Democratic (WEIRD) cultural paradigms, potentially sidelining diverse global perspectives. This paper proposes a framework to assess and mitigate cultural bias within LLMs through the lens of applied multiplexity. Multiplexity, inspired by Senturk et al. and rooted in Islamic and other wisdom traditions, emphasizes the coexistence of diverse cultural viewpoints, supporting a multi-layered epistemology that integrates both empirical sciences and normative values. Our analysis reveals that LLMs frequently exhibit cultural polarization, with biases appearing in both overt responses and subtle contextual cues. To address inherent biases and incorporate multiplexity in LLMs, we propose two strategies: Contextually-Implemented Multiplex LLMs, which embed multiplex principles directly into the system prompt, influencing LLM outputs at a foundational level and independent of individual prompts, and Multi-Agent System (MAS)-Implemented Multiplex LLMs, where multiple LLM agents, each representing distinct cultural viewpoints, collaboratively generate a balanced, synthesized response. Our findings demonstrate that as mitigation strategies evolve from contextual prompting to MAS-implementation, cultural inclusivity markedly improves, evidenced by a significant rise in the Perspectives Distribution Score (PDS) and a PDS Entropy increase from 3.25\% at baseline to 98\% with the MAS-Implemented Multiplex LLMs. Sentiment analysis further shows a shift towards positive sentiment across cultures,...

  • 5 authors
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Jan 2