Daily Papers

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used for boosting organizational efficiency and automating tasks. While not originally designed for complex cognitive processes, recent efforts have further extended to employ LLMs in activities such as reasoning, planning, and decision-making. In business processes, such abilities could be invaluable for leveraging on the massive corpora LLMs have been trained on for gaining deep understanding of such processes. In this work, we plant the seeds for the development of a benchmark to assess the ability of LLMs to reason about causal and process perspectives of business operations. We refer to this view as Causally-augmented Business Processes (BP^C). The core of the benchmark comprises a set of BP^C related situations, a set of questions about these situations, and a set of deductive rules employed to systematically resolve the ground truth answers to these questions. Also with the power of LLMs, the seed is then instantiated into a larger-scale set of domain-specific situations and questions. Reasoning on BP^C is of crucial importance for process interventions and process improvement. Our benchmark could be used in one of two possible modalities: testing the performance of any target LLM and training an LLM to advance its capability to reason about BP^C.

Causal analysis plays a foundational role in scientific discovery and reliable decision-making, yet it remains largely inaccessible to domain experts due to its conceptual and algorithmic complexity. This disconnect between causal methodology and practical usability presents a dual challenge: domain experts are unable to leverage recent advances in causal learning, while causal researchers lack broad, real-world deployment to test and refine their methods. To address this, we introduce Causal-Copilot, an autonomous agent that operationalizes expert-level causal analysis within a large language model framework. Causal-Copilot automates the full pipeline of causal analysis for both tabular and time-series data -- including causal discovery, causal inference, algorithm selection, hyperparameter optimization, result interpretation, and generation of actionable insights. It supports interactive refinement through natural language, lowering the barrier for non-specialists while preserving methodological rigor. By integrating over 20 state-of-the-art causal analysis techniques, our system fosters a virtuous cycle -- expanding access to advanced causal methods for domain experts while generating rich, real-world applications that inform and advance causal theory. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that Causal-Copilot achieves superior performance compared to existing baselines, offering a reliable, scalable, and extensible solution that bridges the gap between theoretical sophistication and real-world applicability in causal analysis. A live interactive demo of Causal-Copilot is available at https://causalcopilot.com/.

Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems serve as the digital backbone of modern financial institutions, yet they continue to rely on static, rule-based workflows that limit adaptability, scalability, and intelligence. As business operations grow more complex and data-rich, conventional ERP platforms struggle to integrate structured and unstructured data in real time and to accommodate dynamic, cross-functional workflows. In this paper, we present the first AI-native, agent-based framework for ERP systems, introducing a novel architecture of Generative Business Process AI Agents (GBPAs) that bring autonomy, reasoning, and dynamic optimization to enterprise workflows. The proposed system integrates generative AI with business process modeling and multi-agent orchestration, enabling end-to-end automation of complex tasks such as budget planning, financial reporting, and wire transfer processing. Unlike traditional workflow engines, GBPAs interpret user intent, synthesize workflows in real time, and coordinate specialized sub-agents for modular task execution. We validate the framework through case studies in bank wire transfers and employee reimbursements, two representative financial workflows with distinct complexity and data modalities. Results show that GBPAs achieve up to 40% reduction in processing time, 94% drop in error rate, and improved regulatory compliance by enabling parallelism, risk control insertion, and semantic reasoning. These findings highlight the potential of GBPAs to bridge the gap between generative AI capabilities and enterprise-grade automation, laying the groundwork for the next generation of intelligent ERP systems.

Energy markets exhibit complex causal relationships between weather patterns, generation technologies, and price formation, with regime changes occurring continuously rather than at discrete break points. Current approaches model electricity prices without explicit causal interpretation or counterfactual reasoning capabilities. We introduce Augmented Time Series Causal Models (ATSCM) for energy markets, extending counterfactual reasoning frameworks to multivariate temporal data with learned causal structure. Our approach models energy systems through interpretable factors (weather, generation mix, demand patterns), rich grid dynamics, and observable market variables. We integrate neural causal discovery to learn time-varying causal graphs without requiring ground truth DAGs. Applied to real-world electricity price data, ATSCM enables novel counterfactual queries such as "What would prices be under different renewable generation scenarios?".

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) has significantly enhanced large language models (LLMs) in knowledge-intensive tasks by incorporating external knowledge retrieval. However, existing RAG frameworks primarily rely on semantic similarity and correlation-driven retrieval, limiting their ability to distinguish true causal relationships from spurious associations. This results in responses that may be factually grounded but fail to establish cause-and-effect mechanisms, leading to incomplete or misleading insights. To address this issue, we introduce Causal Dynamic Feedback for Adaptive Retrieval-Augmented Generation (CDF-RAG), a framework designed to improve causal consistency, factual accuracy, and explainability in generative reasoning. CDF-RAG iteratively refines queries, retrieves structured causal graphs, and enables multi-hop causal reasoning across interconnected knowledge sources. Additionally, it validates responses against causal pathways, ensuring logically coherent and factually grounded outputs. We evaluate CDF-RAG on four diverse datasets, demonstrating its ability to improve response accuracy and causal correctness over existing RAG-based methods. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/ elakhatibi/CDF-RAG.

Urban causal research is essential for understanding the complex dynamics of cities and informing evidence-based policies. However, it is challenged by the inefficiency and bias of hypothesis generation, barriers to multimodal data complexity, and the methodological fragility of causal experimentation. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) present an opportunity to rethink how urban causal analysis is conducted. This Perspective examines current urban causal research by analyzing taxonomies that categorize research topics, data sources, and methodological approaches to identify structural gaps. We then introduce an LLM-driven conceptual framework, AutoUrbanCI, composed of four distinct modular agents responsible for hypothesis generation, data engineering, experiment design and execution, and results interpretation with policy recommendations. We propose evaluation criteria for rigor and transparency and reflect on implications for human-AI collaboration, equity, and accountability. We call for a new research agenda that embraces AI-augmented workflows not as replacements for human expertise but as tools to broaden participation, improve reproducibility, and unlock more inclusive forms of urban causal reasoning.

Reasoning requires adaptation to novel problem settings under limited data and distribution shift. This work introduces CausalARC: an experimental testbed for AI reasoning in low-data and out-of-distribution regimes, modeled after the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC). Each CausalARC reasoning task is sampled from a fully specified causal world model, formally expressed as a structural causal model. Principled data augmentations provide observational, interventional, and counterfactual feedback about the world model in the form of few-shot, in-context learning demonstrations. As a proof-of-concept, we illustrate the use of CausalARC for four language model evaluation settings: (1) abstract reasoning with test-time training, (2) counterfactual reasoning with in-context learning, (3) program synthesis, and (4) causal discovery with logical reasoning.

This paper introduces Workflow Intention, a novel framework for identifying and encoding process objectives within complex business environments. Workflow Intention is the alignment of Input, Process and Output elements defining a Workflow's transformation objective interpreted from Workflow Signal inside Business Artefacts. It specifies how Input is processed to achieve desired Output, incorporating quality standards, business rules, compliance requirements and constraints. We adopt an end-to-end Business Artefact Encoder and Workflow Signal interpretation methodology involving four steps: Modality-Specific Encoding, Intra-Modality Attention, Inter-Modality Fusion Attention then Intention Decoding. We provide training procedures and critical loss function definitions. In this paper we introduce the concepts of Workflow Signal and Workflow Intention, where Workflow Signal decomposed into Input, Process and Output elements is interpreted from Business Artefacts, and Workflow Intention is a complete triple of these elements. We introduce a mathematical framework for representing Workflow Signal as a vector and Workflow Intention as a tensor, formalizing properties of these objects. Finally, we propose a modular, scalable, trainable, attention-based multimodal generative system to resolve Workflow Intention from Business Artefacts.

This paper introduces Opus, a novel framework for generating and optimizing Workflows tailored to complex Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) use cases, focusing on cost reduction and quality enhancement while adhering to established industry processes and operational constraints. Our approach generates executable Workflows from Intention, defined as the alignment of Client Input, Client Output, and Process Context. These Workflows are represented as Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs), with nodes as Tasks consisting of sequences of executable Instructions, including tools and human expert reviews. We adopt a two-phase methodology: Workflow Generation and Workflow Optimization. In the Generation phase, Workflows are generated using a Large Work Model (LWM) informed by a Work Knowledge Graph (WKG) that encodes domain-specific procedural and operational knowledge. In the Optimization phase, Workflows are transformed into Workflow Graphs (WFGs), where optimal Workflows are determined through path optimization. Our experiments demonstrate that state-of-the-art Large Language Models (LLMs) face challenges in reliably retrieving detailed process data as well as generating industry-compliant workflows. The key contributions of this paper include: - The integration of a Work Knowledge Graph (WKG) into a Large Work Model (LWM), enabling the generation of context-aware, semantically aligned, structured and auditable Workflows. - A two-phase approach that combines Workflow Generation from Intention with graph-based Workflow Optimization. - Opus Alpha 1 Large and Opus Alpha 1 Small, models that outperform state-of-the-art LLMs by 38\% and 29\% respectively in Workflow Generation for a Medical Coding use case.

A faithful and interpretable explanation of an AI model's behavior and internal structure is a high-level explanation that is human-intelligible but also consistent with the known, but often opaque low-level causal details of the model. We argue that the theory of causal abstraction provides the mathematical foundations for the desired kinds of model explanations. In causal abstraction analysis, we use interventions on model-internal states to rigorously assess whether an interpretable high-level causal model is a faithful description of an AI model. Our contributions in this area are: (1) We generalize causal abstraction to cyclic causal structures and typed high-level variables. (2) We show how multi-source interchange interventions can be used to conduct causal abstraction analyses. (3) We define a notion of approximate causal abstraction that allows us to assess the degree to which a high-level causal model is a causal abstraction of a lower-level one. (4) We prove constructive causal abstraction can be decomposed into three operations we refer to as marginalization, variable-merge, and value-merge. (5) We formalize the XAI methods of LIME, causal effect estimation, causal mediation analysis, iterated nullspace projection, and circuit-based explanations as special cases of causal abstraction analysis.

In recent years, microservices have gained widespread adoption in IT operations due to their scalability, maintenance, and flexibility. However, it becomes challenging for site reliability engineers (SREs) to pinpoint the root cause due to the complex relationships in microservices when facing system malfunctions. Previous research employed structured learning methods (e.g., PC-algorithm) to establish causal relationships and derive root causes from causal graphs. Nevertheless, they ignored the temporal order of time series data and failed to leverage the rich information inherent in the temporal relationships. For instance, in cases where there is a sudden spike in CPU utilization, it can lead to an increase in latency for other microservices. However, in this scenario, the anomaly in CPU utilization occurs before the latency increase, rather than simultaneously. As a result, the PC-algorithm fails to capture such characteristics. To address these challenges, we propose RUN, a novel approach for root cause analysis using neural Granger causal discovery with contrastive learning. RUN enhances the backbone encoder by integrating contextual information from time series, and leverages a time series forecasting model to conduct neural Granger causal discovery. In addition, RUN incorporates Pagerank with a personalization vector to efficiently recommend the top-k root causes. Extensive experiments conducted on the synthetic and real-world microservice-based datasets demonstrate that RUN noticeably outperforms the state-of-the-art root cause analysis methods. Moreover, we provide an analysis scenario for the sock-shop case to showcase the practicality and efficacy of RUN in microservice-based applications. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/zmlin1998/RUN.

Existing 3D scene generation methods often struggle to model the complex logical dependencies and physical constraints between objects, limiting their ability to adapt to dynamic and realistic environments. We propose CausalStruct, a novel framework that embeds causal reasoning into 3D scene generation. Utilizing large language models (LLMs), We construct causal graphs where nodes represent objects and attributes, while edges encode causal dependencies and physical constraints. CausalStruct iteratively refines the scene layout by enforcing causal order to determine the placement order of objects and applies causal intervention to adjust the spatial configuration according to physics-driven constraints, ensuring consistency with textual descriptions and real-world dynamics. The refined scene causal graph informs subsequent optimization steps, employing a Proportional-Integral-Derivative(PID) controller to iteratively tune object scales and positions. Our method uses text or images to guide object placement and layout in 3D scenes, with 3D Gaussian Splatting and Score Distillation Sampling improving shape accuracy and rendering stability. Extensive experiments show that CausalStruct generates 3D scenes with enhanced logical coherence, realistic spatial interactions, and robust adaptability.

The technique of data augmentation (DA) is often used in machine learning for regularization purposes to better generalize under i.i.d. settings. In this work, we present a unifying framework with topics in causal inference to make a case for the use of DA beyond just the i.i.d. setting, but for generalization across interventions as well. Specifically, we argue that when the outcome generating mechanism is invariant to our choice of DA, then such augmentations can effectively be thought of as interventions on the treatment generating mechanism itself. This can potentially help to reduce bias in causal effect estimation arising from hidden confounders. In the presence of such unobserved confounding we typically make use of instrumental variables (IVs) -- sources of treatment randomization that are conditionally independent of the outcome. However, IVs may not be as readily available as DA for many applications, which is the main motivation behind this work. By appropriately regularizing IV based estimators, we introduce the concept of IV-like (IVL) regression for mitigating confounding bias and improving predictive performance across interventions even when certain IV properties are relaxed. Finally, we cast parameterized DA as an IVL regression problem and show that when used in composition can simulate a worst-case application of such DA, further improving performance on causal estimation and generalization tasks beyond what simple DA may offer. This is shown both theoretically for the population case and via simulation experiments for the finite sample case using a simple linear example. We also present real data experiments to support our case.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently shown great promise in planning and reasoning applications. These tasks demand robust systems, which arguably require a causal understanding of the environment. While LLMs can acquire and reflect common sense causal knowledge from their pretraining data, this information is often incomplete, incorrect, or inapplicable to a specific environment. In contrast, causal representation learning (CRL) focuses on identifying the underlying causal structure within a given environment. We propose a framework that integrates CRLs with LLMs to enable causally-aware reasoning and planning. This framework learns a causal world model, with causal variables linked to natural language expressions. This mapping provides LLMs with a flexible interface to process and generate descriptions of actions and states in text form. Effectively, the causal world model acts as a simulator that the LLM can query and interact with. We evaluate the framework on causal inference and planning tasks across temporal scales and environmental complexities. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach, with the causally-aware method outperforming LLM-based reasoners, especially for longer planning horizons.

Actual causality (AC), a fundamental aspect of causal reasoning (CR), is responsible for attribution and responsibility assignment in real-world scenarios. However, existing LLM-based methods lack grounding in formal AC theory, resulting in limited interpretability. Therefore, we propose AC-Reason, a semi-formal reasoning framework that identifies causally relevant events within an AC scenario, infers the values of their formal causal factors (e.g., sufficiency, necessity, and normality), and answers AC queries via a theory-guided algorithm with explanations. While AC-Reason does not explicitly construct a causal graph, it operates over variables in the underlying causal structure to support principled reasoning. To enable comprehensive evaluation, we introduce AC-Bench, a new benchmark built upon and substantially extending Big-Bench Hard Causal Judgment (BBH-CJ). AC-Bench comprises ~1K carefully annotated samples, each with detailed reasoning steps and focuses solely on actual causation. The case study shows that synthesized samples in AC-Bench present greater challenges for LLMs. Extensive experiments on BBH-CJ and AC-Bench show that AC-Reason consistently improves LLM performance over baselines. On BBH-CJ, all tested LLMs surpass the average human rater accuracy of 69.60%, with GPT-4 + AC-Reason achieving 75.04%. On AC-Bench, GPT-4 + AC-Reason again achieves the highest accuracy of 71.82%. AC-Bench further enables fine-grained analysis of reasoning faithfulness, revealing that only Qwen-2.5-72B-Instruct, Claude-3.5-Sonnet, and GPT-4o exhibit faithful reasoning, whereas GPT-4 tends to exploit shortcuts. Finally, our ablation study proves that integrating AC theory into LLMs is highly effective, with the proposed algorithm contributing the most significant performance gains.

We address causal reasoning in multivariate time series data generated by stochastic processes. Existing approaches are largely restricted to static settings, ignoring the continuity and emission of variations across time. In contrast, we propose a learning paradigm that directly establishes causation between events in the course of time. We present two key lemmas to compute causal contributions and frame them as reinforcement learning problems. Our approach offers formal and computational tools for uncovering and quantifying causal relationships in diffusion processes, subsuming various important settings such as discrete-time Markov decision processes. Finally, in fairly intricate experiments and through sheer learning, our framework reveals and quantifies causal links, which otherwise seem inexplicable.

With the rise of Large Language Models(LLMs), it has become crucial to understand their capabilities and limitations in deciphering and explaining the complex web of causal relationships that language entails. Current methods use either explicit or implicit causal reasoning, yet there is a strong need for a unified approach combining both to tackle a wide array of causal relationships more effectively. This research proposes a novel architecture called Context Aware Reasoning Enhancement with Counterfactual Analysis(CARE CA) framework to enhance causal reasoning and explainability. The proposed framework incorporates an explicit causal detection module with ConceptNet and counterfactual statements, as well as implicit causal detection through LLMs. Our framework goes one step further with a layer of counterfactual explanations to accentuate LLMs understanding of causality. The knowledge from ConceptNet enhances the performance of multiple causal reasoning tasks such as causal discovery, causal identification and counterfactual reasoning. The counterfactual sentences add explicit knowledge of the not caused by scenarios. By combining these powerful modules, our model aims to provide a deeper understanding of causal relationships, enabling enhanced interpretability. Evaluation of benchmark datasets shows improved performance across all metrics, such as accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 scores. We also introduce CausalNet, a new dataset accompanied by our code, to facilitate further research in this domain.

The causal capabilities of large language models (LLMs) are a matter of significant debate, with critical implications for the use of LLMs in societally impactful domains such as medicine, science, law, and policy. We conduct a "behavorial" study of LLMs to benchmark their capability in generating causal arguments. Across a wide range of tasks, we find that LLMs can generate text corresponding to correct causal arguments with high probability, surpassing the best-performing existing methods. Algorithms based on GPT-3.5 and 4 outperform existing algorithms on a pairwise causal discovery task (97%, 13 points gain), counterfactual reasoning task (92%, 20 points gain) and event causality (86% accuracy in determining necessary and sufficient causes in vignettes). We perform robustness checks across tasks and show that the capabilities cannot be explained by dataset memorization alone, especially since LLMs generalize to novel datasets that were created after the training cutoff date. That said, LLMs exhibit unpredictable failure modes, and we discuss the kinds of errors that may be improved and what are the fundamental limits of LLM-based answers. Overall, by operating on the text metadata, LLMs bring capabilities so far understood to be restricted to humans, such as using collected knowledge to generate causal graphs or identifying background causal context from natural language. As a result, LLMs may be used by human domain experts to save effort in setting up a causal analysis, one of the biggest impediments to the widespread adoption of causal methods. Given that LLMs ignore the actual data, our results also point to a fruitful research direction of developing algorithms that combine LLMs with existing causal techniques. Code and datasets are available at https://github.com/py-why/pywhy-llm.

Explainability methods for NLP systems encounter a version of the fundamental problem of causal inference: for a given ground-truth input text, we never truly observe the counterfactual texts necessary for isolating the causal effects of model representations on outputs. In response, many explainability methods make no use of counterfactual texts, assuming they will be unavailable. In this paper, we show that robust causal explainability methods can be created using approximate counterfactuals, which can be written by humans to approximate a specific counterfactual or simply sampled using metadata-guided heuristics. The core of our proposal is the Causal Proxy Model (CPM). A CPM explains a black-box model N because it is trained to have the same actual input/output behavior as N while creating neural representations that can be intervened upon to simulate the counterfactual input/output behavior of N. Furthermore, we show that the best CPM for N performs comparably to N in making factual predictions, which means that the CPM can simply replace N, leading to more explainable deployed models. Our code is available at https://github.com/frankaging/Causal-Proxy-Model.

Event Causality Identification (ECI) aims at determining whether there is a causal relation between two event mentions. Conventional prompt learning designs a prompt template to first predict an answer word and then maps it to the final decision. Unlike conventional prompts, we argue that predicting an answer word may not be a necessary prerequisite for the ECI task. Instead, we can first make a deterministic assumption on the existence of causal relation between two events and then evaluate its rationality to either accept or reject the assumption. The design motivation is to try the most utilization of the encyclopedia-like knowledge embedded in a pre-trained language model. In light of such considerations, we propose a deterministic assumption prompt learning model, called DAPrompt, for the ECI task. In particular, we design a simple deterministic assumption template concatenating with the input event pair, which includes two masks as predicted events' tokens. We use the probabilities of predicted events to evaluate the assumption rationality for the final event causality decision. Experiments on the EventStoryLine corpus and Causal-TimeBank corpus validate our design objective in terms of significant performance improvements over the state-of-the-art algorithms.

Causal reasoning and compositional reasoning are two core aspirations in generative AI. Measuring the extent of these behaviors requires principled evaluation methods. We explore a unified perspective that considers both behaviors simultaneously, termed compositional causal reasoning (CCR): the ability to infer how causal measures compose and, equivalently, how causal quantities propagate through graphs. We instantiate a framework for the systematic evaluation of CCR for the average treatment effect and the probability of necessity and sufficiency. As proof of concept, we demonstrate the design of CCR tasks for language models in the LLama, Phi, and GPT families. On a math word problem, our framework revealed a range of taxonomically distinct error patterns. Additionally, CCR errors increased with the complexity of causal paths for all models except o1.

Business Process Management (BPM) aims to improve organizational activities and their outcomes by managing the underlying processes. To achieve this, it is often necessary to consider information from various sources, including unstructured textual documents. Therefore, researchers have developed several BPM-specific solutions that extract information from textual documents using Natural Language Processing techniques. These solutions are specific to their respective tasks and cannot accomplish multiple process-related problems as a general-purpose instrument. However, in light of the recent emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs) with remarkable reasoning capabilities, such a general-purpose instrument with multiple applications now appears attainable. In this paper, we illustrate how LLMs can accomplish text-related BPM tasks by applying a specific LLM to three exemplary tasks: mining imperative process models from textual descriptions, mining declarative process models from textual descriptions, and assessing the suitability of process tasks from textual descriptions for robotic process automation. We show that, without extensive configuration or prompt engineering, LLMs perform comparably to or better than existing solutions and discuss implications for future BPM research as well as practical usage.

In Causal Bayesian Optimization (CBO), an agent intervenes on an unknown structural causal model to maximize a downstream reward variable. In this paper, we consider the generalization where other agents or external events also intervene on the system, which is key for enabling adaptiveness to non-stationarities such as weather changes, market forces, or adversaries. We formalize this generalization of CBO as Adversarial Causal Bayesian Optimization (ACBO) and introduce the first algorithm for ACBO with bounded regret: Causal Bayesian Optimization with Multiplicative Weights (CBO-MW). Our approach combines a classical online learning strategy with causal modeling of the rewards. To achieve this, it computes optimistic counterfactual reward estimates by propagating uncertainty through the causal graph. We derive regret bounds for CBO-MW that naturally depend on graph-related quantities. We further propose a scalable implementation for the case of combinatorial interventions and submodular rewards. Empirically, CBO-MW outperforms non-causal and non-adversarial Bayesian optimization methods on synthetic environments and environments based on real-word data. Our experiments include a realistic demonstration of how CBO-MW can be used to learn users' demand patterns in a shared mobility system and reposition vehicles in strategic areas.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown state-of-the-art performance in a variety of tasks, including arithmetic and reasoning; however, to gauge the intellectual capabilities of LLMs, causal reasoning has become a reliable proxy for validating a general understanding of the mechanics and intricacies of the world similar to humans. Previous works in natural language processing (NLP) have either focused on open-ended causal reasoning via causal commonsense reasoning (CCR) or framed a symbolic representation-based question answering for theoretically backed-up analysis via a causal inference engine. The former adds an advantage of real-world grounding but lacks theoretically backed-up analysis/validation, whereas the latter is far from real-world grounding. In this work, we bridge this gap by proposing the COLD (Causal reasOning in cLosed Daily activities) framework, which is built upon human understanding of daily real-world activities to reason about the causal nature of events. We show that the proposed framework facilitates the creation of enormous causal queries (~ 9 million) and comes close to the mini-turing test, simulating causal reasoning to evaluate the understanding of a daily real-world task. We evaluate multiple LLMs on the created causal queries and find that causal reasoning is challenging even for activities trivial to humans. We further explore (the causal reasoning abilities of LLMs) using the backdoor criterion to determine the causal strength between events.

Causal effect estimation from observational data is fundamental across various applications. However, selecting an appropriate estimator from dozens of specialized methods demands substantial manual effort and domain expertise. We present CausalPFN, a single transformer that amortizes this workflow: trained once on a large library of simulated data-generating processes that satisfy ignorability, it infers causal effects for new observational datasets out-of-the-box. CausalPFN combines ideas from Bayesian causal inference with the large-scale training protocol of prior-fitted networks (PFNs), learning to map raw observations directly to causal effects without any task-specific adjustment. Our approach achieves superior average performance on heterogeneous and average treatment effect estimation benchmarks (IHDP, Lalonde, ACIC). Moreover, it shows competitive performance for real-world policy making on uplift modeling tasks. CausalPFN provides calibrated uncertainty estimates to support reliable decision-making based on Bayesian principles. This ready-to-use model does not require any further training or tuning and takes a step toward automated causal inference (https://github.com/vdblm/CausalPFN).

We propose constrained causal Bayesian optimization (cCBO), an approach for finding interventions in a known causal graph that optimize a target variable under some constraints. cCBO first reduces the search space by exploiting the graph structure and, if available, an observational dataset; and then solves the restricted optimization problem by modelling target and constraint quantities using Gaussian processes and by sequentially selecting interventions via a constrained expected improvement acquisition function. We propose different surrogate models that enable to integrate observational and interventional data while capturing correlation among effects with increasing levels of sophistication. We evaluate cCBO on artificial and real-world causal graphs showing successful trade off between fast convergence and percentage of feasible interventions.

Understanding narratives requires reasoning about the cause-and-effect relationships between events mentioned in the text. While existing foundation models yield impressive results in many NLP tasks requiring reasoning, it is unclear whether they understand the complexity of the underlying network of causal relationships of events in narratives. In this work, we present CRAB, a new Causal Reasoning Assessment Benchmark designed to evaluate causal understanding of events in real-world narratives. CRAB contains fine-grained, contextual causality annotations for ~2.7K pairs of real-world events that describe various newsworthy event timelines (e.g., the acquisition of Twitter by Elon Musk). Using CRAB, we measure the performance of several large language models, demonstrating that most systems achieve poor performance on the task. Motivated by classical causal principles, we also analyze the causal structures of groups of events in CRAB, and find that models perform worse on causal reasoning when events are derived from complex causal structures compared to simple linear causal chains. We make our dataset and code available to the research community.

We present a constraint-based algorithm for learning causal structures from observational time-series data, in the presence of latent confounders. We assume a discrete-time, stationary structural vector autoregressive process, with both temporal and contemporaneous causal relations. One may ask if temporal and contemporaneous relations should be treated differently. The presented algorithm gradually refines a causal graph by learning long-term temporal relations before short-term ones, where contemporaneous relations are learned last. This ordering of causal relations to be learnt leads to a reduction in the required number of statistical tests. We validate this reduction empirically and demonstrate that it leads to higher accuracy for synthetic data and more plausible causal graphs for real-world data compared to state-of-the-art algorithms.

The rapid evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) has ushered in a new era of integrated systems that merge computational prowess with human decision-making. In this paper, we introduce the concept of Orchestrated Distributed Intelligence (ODI), a novel paradigm that reconceptualizes AI not as isolated autonomous agents, but as cohesive, orchestrated networks that work in tandem with human expertise. ODI leverages advanced orchestration layers, multi-loop feedback mechanisms, and a high cognitive density framework to transform static, record-keeping systems into dynamic, action-oriented environments. Through a comprehensive review of multi-agent system literature, recent technological advances, and practical insights from industry forums, we argue that the future of AI lies in integrating distributed intelligence within human-centric workflows. This approach not only enhances operational efficiency and strategic agility but also addresses challenges related to scalability, transparency, and ethical decision-making. Our work outlines key theoretical implications and presents a practical roadmap for future research and enterprise innovation, aiming to pave the way for responsible and adaptive AI systems that drive sustainable innovation in human organizations.

Understanding causality has vital importance for various Natural Language Processing (NLP) applications. Beyond the labeled instances, conceptual explanations of the causality can provide deep understanding of the causal facts to facilitate the causal reasoning process. However, such explanation information still remains absent in existing causal reasoning resources. In this paper, we fill this gap by presenting a human-annotated explainable CAusal REasoning dataset (e-CARE), which contains over 21K causal reasoning questions, together with natural language formed explanations of the causal questions. Experimental results show that generating valid explanations for causal facts still remains especially challenging for the state-of-the-art models, and the explanation information can be helpful for promoting the accuracy and stability of causal reasoning models.

We present a general causal generative modelling framework for accurate estimation of high fidelity image counterfactuals with deep structural causal models. Estimation of interventional and counterfactual queries for high-dimensional structured variables, such as images, remains a challenging task. We leverage ideas from causal mediation analysis and advances in generative modelling to design new deep causal mechanisms for structured variables in causal models. Our experiments demonstrate that our proposed mechanisms are capable of accurate abduction and estimation of direct, indirect and total effects as measured by axiomatic soundness of counterfactuals.

Causality knowledge is vital to building robust AI systems. Deep learning models often perform poorly on tasks that require causal reasoning, which is often derived using some form of commonsense knowledge not immediately available in the input but implicitly inferred by humans. Prior work has unraveled spurious observational biases that models fall prey to in the absence of causality. While language representation models preserve contextual knowledge within learned embeddings, they do not factor in causal relationships during training. By blending causal relationships with the input features to an existing model that performs visual cognition tasks (such as scene understanding, video captioning, video question-answering, etc.), better performance can be achieved owing to the insight causal relationships bring about. Recently, several models have been proposed that have tackled the task of mining causal data from either the visual or textual modality. However, there does not exist widespread research that mines causal relationships by juxtaposing the visual and language modalities. While images offer a rich and easy-to-process resource for us to mine causality knowledge from, videos are denser and consist of naturally time-ordered events. Also, textual information offers details that could be implicit in videos. We propose iReason, a framework that infers visual-semantic commonsense knowledge using both videos and natural language captions. Furthermore, iReason's architecture integrates a causal rationalization module to aid the process of interpretability, error analysis and bias detection. We demonstrate the effectiveness of iReason using a two-pronged comparative analysis with language representation learning models (BERT, GPT-2) as well as current state-of-the-art multimodal causality models.

Despite efforts to mitigate the inherent risks and biases of artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms, these algorithms can disproportionately impact culturally marginalized groups. A range of approaches has been proposed to address or reduce these risks, including the development of ethical guidelines and principles for responsible AI, as well as technical solutions that promote algorithmic fairness. Drawing on design justice, expansive learning theory, and recent empirical work on participatory AI, we argue that mitigating these harms requires a fundamental re-architecture of the AI production pipeline. This re-design should center co-production, diversity, equity, inclusion (DEI), and multidisciplinary collaboration. We introduce an augmented AI lifecycle consisting of five interconnected phases: co-framing, co-design, co-implementation, co-deployment, and co-maintenance. The lifecycle is informed by four multidisciplinary workshops and grounded in themes of distributed authority and iterative knowledge exchange. Finally, we relate the proposed lifecycle to several leading ethical frameworks and outline key research questions that remain for scaling participatory governance.

We propose a novel framework that leverages LLMs for full causal graph discovery. While previous LLM-based methods have used a pairwise query approach, this requires a quadratic number of queries which quickly becomes impractical for larger causal graphs. In contrast, the proposed framework uses a breadth-first search (BFS) approach which allows it to use only a linear number of queries. We also show that the proposed method can easily incorporate observational data when available, to improve performance. In addition to being more time and data-efficient, the proposed framework achieves state-of-the-art results on real-world causal graphs of varying sizes. The results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method in discovering causal relationships, showcasing its potential for broad applicability in causal graph discovery tasks across different domains.

Recent approaches to empathetic response generation incorporate emotion causalities to enhance comprehension of both the user's feelings and experiences. However, these approaches suffer from two critical issues. First, they only consider causalities between the user's emotion and the user's experiences, and ignore those between the user's experiences. Second, they neglect interdependence among causalities and reason them independently. To solve the above problems, we expect to reason all plausible causalities interdependently and simultaneously, given the user's emotion, dialogue history, and future dialogue content. Then, we infuse these causalities into response generation for empathetic responses. Specifically, we design a new model, i.e., the Conditional Variational Graph Auto-Encoder (CVGAE), for the causality reasoning, and adopt a multi-source attention mechanism in the decoder for the causality infusion. We name the whole framework as CARE, abbreviated for CAusality Reasoning for Empathetic conversation. Experimental results indicate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) spend substantial test-time compute on long chain-of-thought (CoT) traces, but what *characterizes* an effective CoT remains unclear. While prior work reports gains from lengthening CoTs and increasing review (revisiting earlier steps) via appended *wait* tokens, recent studies suggest that shorter thinking can outperform longer traces. We therefore conduct a systematic evaluation across ten LRMs on math and scientific reasoning. Contrary to the "longer-is-better" narrative, we find that both naive CoT lengthening and increased review are associated with *lower* accuracy. As CoT unfolds step by step, token-level metrics can conflate verbosity with process quality. We introduce a graph view of CoT to extract structure and identify a single statistic-the *Failed-Step Fraction (FSF)*, the fraction of steps in abandoned branches-that consistently outpredicts length and review ratio for correctness across models. To probe causality, we design two interventions. First, we rank candidate CoTs by each metric at test time, where FSF yields the largest pass@1 gains; second, we edit CoTs to remove failed branches, which significantly improves accuracy, indicating that failed branches bias subsequent reasoning. Taken together, these results characterize effective CoTs as those that *fail less* and support *structure-aware* test-time scaling over indiscriminately generating long CoT.

Market generators using deep generative models have shown promise for synthetic financial data generation, but existing approaches lack causal reasoning capabilities essential for counterfactual analysis and risk assessment. We propose a Time-series Neural Causal Model VAE (TNCM-VAE) that combines variational autoencoders with structural causal models to generate counterfactual financial time series while preserving both temporal dependencies and causal relationships. Our approach enforces causal constraints through directed acyclic graphs in the decoder architecture and employs the causal Wasserstein distance for training. We validate our method on synthetic autoregressive models inspired by the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, demonstrating superior performance in counterfactual probability estimation with L1 distances as low as 0.03-0.10 compared to ground truth. The model enables financial stress testing, scenario analysis, and enhanced backtesting by generating plausible counterfactual market trajectories that respect underlying causal mechanisms.

Detecting anomalies is important for identifying inefficiencies, errors, or fraud in business processes. Traditional process mining approaches focus on analyzing 'flattened', sequential, event logs based on a single case notion. However, many real-world process executions exhibit a graph-like structure, where events can be associated with multiple cases. Flattening event logs requires selecting a single case identifier which creates a gap with the real event data and artificially introduces anomalies in the event logs. Object-centric process mining avoids these limitations by allowing events to be related to different cases. This study proposes a novel framework for anomaly detection in business processes that exploits graph neural networks and the enhanced information offered by object-centric process mining. We first reconstruct and represent the process dependencies of the object-centric event logs as attributed graphs and then employ a graph convolutional autoencoder architecture to detect anomalous events. Our results show that our approach provides promising performance in detecting anomalies at the activity type and attributes level, although it struggles to detect anomalies in the temporal order of events.

Large Language Models (LLMs) show promise in biomedicine but lack true causal understanding, relying instead on correlations. This paper envisions causal LLM agents that integrate multimodal data (text, images, genomics, etc.) and perform intervention-based reasoning to infer cause-and-effect. Addressing this requires overcoming key challenges: designing safe, controllable agentic frameworks; developing rigorous benchmarks for causal evaluation; integrating heterogeneous data sources; and synergistically combining LLMs with structured knowledge (KGs) and formal causal inference tools. Such agents could unlock transformative opportunities, including accelerating drug discovery through automated hypothesis generation and simulation, enabling personalized medicine through patient-specific causal models. This research agenda aims to foster interdisciplinary efforts, bridging causal concepts and foundation models to develop reliable AI partners for biomedical progress.

Current Reinforcement Learning (RL) methods often suffer from sample-inefficiency, resulting from blind exploration strategies that neglect causal relationships among states, actions, and rewards. Although recent causal approaches aim to address this problem, they lack grounded modeling of reward-guided causal understanding of states and actions for goal-orientation, thus impairing learning efficiency. To tackle this issue, we propose a novel method named Causal Information Prioritization (CIP) that improves sample efficiency by leveraging factored MDPs to infer causal relationships between different dimensions of states and actions with respect to rewards, enabling the prioritization of causal information. Specifically, CIP identifies and leverages causal relationships between states and rewards to execute counterfactual data augmentation to prioritize high-impact state features under the causal understanding of the environments. Moreover, CIP integrates a causality-aware empowerment learning objective, which significantly enhances the agent's execution of reward-guided actions for more efficient exploration in complex environments. To fully assess the effectiveness of CIP, we conduct extensive experiments across 39 tasks in 5 diverse continuous control environments, encompassing both locomotion and manipulation skills learning with pixel-based and sparse reward settings. Experimental results demonstrate that CIP consistently outperforms existing RL methods across a wide range of scenarios.

Recent multi-agent frameworks built upon large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in complex task planning. However, in real-world enterprise environments, business workflows are typically composed through modularization and reuse of numerous subprocesses, resulting in intricate workflows characterized by lengthy and deeply nested execution paths. Such complexity poses significant challenges for LLM-driven orchestration, as extended reasoning chains and state-space explosions severely impact planning effectiveness and the proper sequencing of tool invocations. Therefore, developing an orchestration method with controllable structures capable of handling multi-layer nesting becomes a critical issue. To address this, we propose a novel structure-driven orchestration framework Self-Organizing Agent Network (SOAN). SOAN incrementally builds a formalized agent network by identifying and encapsulating structural units as independent agents, enhancing modularity and clarity in orchestration. Extensive evaluations were performed using multiple benchmarks as well as a real-world enterprise workflow dataset. Experimental results demonstrate that SOAN significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of adaptability, fault tolerance, and execution efficiency.

Artificial intelligence (AI) enables machines to learn from human experience, adjust to new inputs, and perform human-like tasks. AI is progressing rapidly and is transforming the way businesses operate, from process automation to cognitive augmentation of tasks and intelligent process/data analytics. However, the main challenge for human users would be to understand and appropriately trust the result of AI algorithms and methods. In this paper, to address this challenge, we study and analyze the recent work done in Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) methods and tools. We introduce a novel XAI process, which facilitates producing explainable models while maintaining a high level of learning performance. We present an interactive evidence-based approach to assist human users in comprehending and trusting the results and output created by AI-enabled algorithms. We adopt a typical scenario in the Banking domain for analyzing customer transactions. We develop a digital dashboard to facilitate interacting with the algorithm results and discuss how the proposed XAI method can significantly improve the confidence of data scientists in understanding the result of AI-enabled algorithms.

Answering counterfactual queries has many important applications such as knowledge discovery and explainability, but is challenging when causal variables are unobserved and we only see a projection onto an observation space, for instance, image pixels. One approach is to recover the latent Structural Causal Model (SCM), but this typically needs unrealistic assumptions, such as linearity of the causal mechanisms. Another approach is to use na\"ive ML approximations, such as generative models, to generate counterfactual samples; however, these lack guarantees of accuracy. In this work, we strive to strike a balance between practicality and theoretical guarantees by focusing on a specific type of causal query called domain counterfactuals, which hypothesizes what a sample would have looked like if it had been generated in a different domain (or environment). Concretely, by only assuming invertibility, sparse domain interventions and access to observational data from different domains, we aim to improve domain counterfactual estimation both theoretically and practically with less restrictive assumptions. We define domain counterfactually equivalent models and prove necessary and sufficient properties for equivalent models that provide a tight characterization of the domain counterfactual equivalence classes. Building upon this result, we prove that every equivalence class contains a model where all intervened variables are at the end when topologically sorted by the causal DAG. This surprising result suggests that a model design that only allows intervention in the last k latent variables may improve model estimation for counterfactuals. We then test this model design on extensive simulated and image-based experiments which show the sparse canonical model indeed improves counterfactual estimation over baseline non-sparse models.

Streaming speech recognition architectures are employed for low-latency, real-time applications. Such architectures are often characterized by their causality. Causal architectures emit tokens at each frame, relying only on current and past signal, while non-causal models are exposed to a window of future frames at each step to increase predictive accuracy. This dichotomy amounts to a trade-off for real-time Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) system design: profit from the low-latency benefit of strictly-causal architectures while accepting predictive performance limitations, or realize the modeling benefits of future-context models accompanied by their higher latency penalty. In this work, we relax the constraints of this choice and present the Adaptive Non-Causal Attention Transducer (ANCAT). Our architecture is non-causal in the traditional sense, but executes in a low-latency, streaming manner by dynamically choosing when to rely on future context and to what degree within the audio stream. The resulting mechanism, when coupled with our novel regularization algorithms, delivers comparable accuracy to non-causal configurations while improving significantly upon latency, closing the gap with their causal counterparts. We showcase our design experimentally by reporting comparative ASR task results with measures of accuracy and latency on both publicly accessible and production-scale, voice-assistant datasets.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have driven a revolutionary paradigm shift in process automation from Robotic Process Automation to Agentic Process Automation by automating the workflow orchestration procedure based on LLMs. However, existing LLMs (even the advanced OpenAI GPT-4o) are confined to achieving satisfactory capability in workflow orchestration. To address this limitation, we present WorkflowLLM, a data-centric framework elaborately designed to enhance the capability of LLMs in workflow orchestration. It first constructs a large-scale fine-tuning dataset WorkflowBench with 106,763 samples, covering 1,503 APIs from 83 applications across 28 categories. Specifically, the construction process can be divided into three phases: (1) Data Collection: we collect real-world workflow data from Apple Shortcuts and RoutineHub, transcribing them into Python-style code. We further equip them with generated hierarchical thought via ChatGPT. (2) Query Expansion: we prompt ChatGPT to generate more task queries to enrich the diversity and complexity of workflows. (3) Workflow Generation: we leverage an annotator model trained on collected data to generate workflows for synthesized queries. Finally, we merge the synthetic samples that pass quality confirmation with the collected samples to obtain the WorkflowBench. Based on WorkflowBench, we fine-tune Llama-3.1-8B to obtain WorkflowLlama. Our experiments show that WorkflowLlama demonstrates a strong capacity to orchestrate complex workflows, while also achieving notable generalization performance on previously unseen APIs. Additionally, WorkflowBench exhibits robust zero-shot generalization capabilities on an out-of-distribution task planning dataset, T-Eval. Our data and code are available at https://github.com/OpenBMB/WorkflowLLM.

Ensuring the reliability and availability of complex networked services demands effective root cause analysis (RCA) across cloud environments, data centers, and on-premises networks. Traditional RCA methods, which involve manual inspection of data sources such as logs and telemetry data, are often time-consuming and challenging for on-call engineers. While statistical inference methods have been employed to estimate the causality of network events, these approaches alone are similarly challenging and suffer from a lack of interpretability, making it difficult for engineers to understand the predictions made by black-box models. In this paper, we present RCACopilot, an advanced on-call system that combines statistical tests and large language model (LLM) reasoning to automate RCA across various network environments. RCACopilot gathers and synthesizes critical runtime diagnostic information, predicts the root cause of incidents, provides a clear explanatory narrative, and offers targeted action steps for engineers to resolve the issues. By utilizing LLM reasoning techniques and retrieval, RCACopilot delivers accurate and practical support for operators.

Knowing that the generative capabilities of large language models (LLM) are sometimes hampered by tendencies to hallucinate or create non-factual responses, researchers have increasingly focused on methods to ground generated outputs in factual data. Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) has emerged as a key approach for integrating knowledge from data sources outside of the LLM's training set, including proprietary and up-to-date information. While many research papers explore various RAG strategies, their true efficacy is tested in real-world applications with actual data. The journey from conceiving an idea to actualizing it in the real world is a lengthy process. We present insights from the development and field-testing of a pilot project that integrates LLMs with RAG for information retrieval. Additionally, we examine the impacts on the information value chain, encompassing people, processes, and technology. Our aim is to identify the opportunities and challenges of implementing this emerging technology, particularly within the context of behavioral research in the information systems (IS) field. The contributions of this work include the development of best practices and recommendations for adopting this promising technology while ensuring compliance with industry regulations through a proposed AI governance model.

The term "generative AI" refers to computational techniques that are capable of generating seemingly new, meaningful content such as text, images, or audio from training data. The widespread diffusion of this technology with examples such as Dall-E 2, GPT-4, and Copilot is currently revolutionizing the way we work and communicate with each other. In this article, we provide a conceptualization of generative AI as an entity in socio-technical systems and provide examples of models, systems, and applications. Based on that, we introduce limitations of current generative AI and provide an agenda for Business & Information Systems Engineering (BISE) research. Different from previous works, we focus on generative AI in the context of information systems, and, to this end, we discuss several opportunities and challenges that are unique to the BISE community and make suggestions for impactful directions for BISE research.

Conventional causal discovery methods rely on centralized data, which is inconsistent with the decentralized nature of data in many real-world situations. This discrepancy has motivated the development of federated causal discovery (FCD) approaches. However, existing FCD methods may be limited by their potentially restrictive assumptions of identifiable functional causal models or homogeneous data distributions, narrowing their applicability in diverse scenarios. In this paper, we propose a novel FCD method attempting to accommodate arbitrary causal models and heterogeneous data. We first utilize a surrogate variable corresponding to the client index to account for the data heterogeneity across different clients. We then develop a federated conditional independence test (FCIT) for causal skeleton discovery and establish a federated independent change principle (FICP) to determine causal directions. These approaches involve constructing summary statistics as a proxy of the raw data to protect data privacy. Owing to the nonparametric properties, FCIT and FICP make no assumption about particular functional forms, thereby facilitating the handling of arbitrary causal models. We conduct extensive experiments on synthetic and real datasets to show the efficacy of our method. The code is available at https://github.com/lokali/FedCDH.git.

The rapid advancement of Generative AI has catalyzed the emergence of autonomous AI agents, presenting unprecedented challenges for enterprise computing infrastructures. Current enterprise API architectures are predominantly designed for human-driven, predefined interaction patterns, rendering them ill-equipped to support intelligent agents' dynamic, goal-oriented behaviors. This research systematically examines the architectural adaptations for enterprise APIs to support AI agentic workflows effectively. Through a comprehensive analysis of existing API design paradigms, agent interaction models, and emerging technological constraints, the paper develops a strategic framework for API transformation. The study employs a mixed-method approach, combining theoretical modeling, comparative analysis, and exploratory design principles to address critical challenges in standardization, performance, and intelligent interaction. The proposed research contributes a conceptual model for next-generation enterprise APIs that can seamlessly integrate with autonomous AI agent ecosystems, offering significant implications for future enterprise computing architectures.

In the field of business data analysis, the ability to extract actionable insights from vast and varied datasets is essential for informed decision-making and maintaining a competitive edge. Traditional rule-based systems, while reliable, often fall short when faced with the complexity and dynamism of modern business data. Conversely, Artificial Intelligence (AI) models, particularly Large Language Models (LLMs), offer significant potential in pattern recognition and predictive analytics but can lack the precision necessary for specific business applications. This paper explores the efficacy of hybrid approaches that integrate the robustness of rule-based systems with the adaptive power of LLMs in generating actionable business insights.

Causal reasoning, the ability to identify cause-and-effect relationship, is crucial in human thinking. Although large language models (LLMs) succeed in many NLP tasks, it is still challenging for them to conduct complex causal reasoning like abductive reasoning and counterfactual reasoning. Given the fact that programming code may express causal relations more often and explicitly with conditional statements like ``if``, we want to explore whether Code-LLMs acquire better causal reasoning abilities. Our experiments show that compared to text-only LLMs, Code-LLMs with code prompts are significantly better in causal reasoning. We further intervene on the prompts from different aspects, and discover that the programming structure is crucial in code prompt design, while Code-LLMs are robust towards format perturbations.

In this paper, we propose REASON, a novel framework that enables the automatic discovery of both intra-level (i.e., within-network) and inter-level (i.e., across-network) causal relationships for root cause localization. REASON consists of Topological Causal Discovery and Individual Causal Discovery. The Topological Causal Discovery component aims to model the fault propagation in order to trace back to the root causes. To achieve this, we propose novel hierarchical graph neural networks to construct interdependent causal networks by modeling both intra-level and inter-level non-linear causal relations. Based on the learned interdependent causal networks, we then leverage random walks with restarts to model the network propagation of a system fault. The Individual Causal Discovery component focuses on capturing abrupt change patterns of a single system entity. This component examines the temporal patterns of each entity's metric data (i.e., time series), and estimates its likelihood of being a root cause based on the Extreme Value theory. Combining the topological and individual causal scores, the top K system entities are identified as root causes. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets with case studies demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed framework.

Multi-agent frameworks powered by large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated great success in automated planning and task execution. However, the effective adjustment of Agentic workflows during execution has not been well-studied. A effective workflow adjustment is crucial, as in many real-world scenarios, the initial plan must adjust to unforeseen challenges and changing conditions in real-time to ensure the efficient execution of complex tasks. In this paper, we define workflows as an activity-on-vertex (AOV) graphs. We continuously refine the workflow by dynamically adjusting task allocations based on historical performance and previous AOV with LLM agents. To further enhance system performance, we emphasize modularity in workflow design based on measuring parallelism and dependence complexity. Our proposed multi-agent framework achieved efficient sub-task concurrent execution, goal achievement, and error tolerance. Empirical results across different practical tasks demonstrate dramatic improvements in the efficiency of multi-agent frameworks through dynamic workflow updating and modularization.

Recent work has shown promising results in causal discovery by leveraging interventional data with gradient-based methods, even when the intervened variables are unknown. However, previous work assumes that the correspondence between samples and interventions is known, which is often unrealistic. We envision a scenario with an extensive dataset sampled from multiple intervention distributions and one observation distribution, but where we do not know which distribution originated each sample and how the intervention affected the system, i.e., interventions are entirely latent. We propose a method based on neural networks and variational inference that addresses this scenario by framing it as learning a shared causal graph among an infinite mixture (under a Dirichlet process prior) of intervention structural causal models. Experiments with synthetic and real data show that our approach and its semi-supervised variant are able to discover causal relations in this challenging scenario.

Procedural planning aims to implement complex high-level goals by decomposition into sequential simpler low-level steps. Although procedural planning is a basic skill set for humans in daily life, it remains a challenge for large language models (LLMs) that lack a deep understanding of the cause-effect relations in procedures. Previous methods require manual exemplars to acquire procedural planning knowledge from LLMs in the zero-shot setting. However, such elicited pre-trained knowledge in LLMs induces spurious correlations between goals and steps, which impair the model generalization to unseen tasks. In contrast, this paper proposes a neuro-symbolic procedural PLANner (PLAN) that elicits procedural planning knowledge from the LLMs with commonsense-infused prompting. To mitigate spurious goal-step correlations, we use symbolic program executors on the latent procedural representations to formalize prompts from commonsense knowledge bases as a causal intervention toward the Structural Causal Model. Both automatic and human evaluations on WikiHow and RobotHow show the superiority of PLAN on procedural planning without further training or manual exemplars.

Causal discovery for dynamical systems poses a major challenge in fields where active interventions are infeasible. Most methods used to investigate these systems and their associated benchmarks are tailored to deterministic, low-dimensional and weakly nonlinear time-series data. To address these limitations, we present CausalDynamics, a large-scale benchmark and extensible data generation framework to advance the structural discovery of dynamical causal models. Our benchmark consists of true causal graphs derived from thousands of coupled ordinary and stochastic differential equations as well as two idealized climate models. We perform a comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art causal discovery algorithms for graph reconstruction on systems with noisy, confounded, and lagged dynamics. CausalDynamics consists of a plug-and-play, build-your-own coupling workflow that enables the construction of a hierarchy of physical systems. We anticipate that our framework will facilitate the development of robust causal discovery algorithms that are broadly applicable across domains while addressing their unique challenges. We provide a user-friendly implementation and documentation on https://kausable.github.io/CausalDynamics.

We introduce the concept of Automated Causal Discovery (AutoCD), defined as any system that aims to fully automate the application of causal discovery and causal reasoning methods. AutoCD's goal is to deliver all causal information that an expert human analyst would and answer a user's causal queries. We describe the architecture of such a platform, and illustrate its performance on synthetic data sets. As a case study, we apply it on temporal telecommunication data. The system is general and can be applied to a plethora of causal discovery problems.

Effective root cause analysis (RCA) is vital for swiftly restoring services, minimizing losses, and ensuring the smooth operation and management of complex systems. Previous data-driven RCA methods, particularly those employing causal discovery techniques, have primarily focused on constructing dependency or causal graphs for backtracking the root causes. However, these methods often fall short as they rely solely on data from a single modality, thereby resulting in suboptimal solutions. In this work, we propose Mulan, a unified multi-modal causal structure learning method for root cause localization. We leverage a log-tailored language model to facilitate log representation learning, converting log sequences into time-series data. To explore intricate relationships across different modalities, we propose a contrastive learning-based approach to extract modality-invariant and modality-specific representations within a shared latent space. Additionally, we introduce a novel key performance indicator-aware attention mechanism for assessing modality reliability and co-learning a final causal graph. Finally, we employ random walk with restart to simulate system fault propagation and identify potential root causes. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets validate the effectiveness of our proposed framework.

The presence of unhealthy nodes in cloud infrastructure signals the potential failure of machines, which can significantly impact the availability and reliability of cloud services, resulting in negative customer experiences. Effectively addressing unhealthy node mitigation is therefore vital for sustaining cloud system performance. This paper introduces Deoxys, a causal inference engine tailored to recommending mitigation actions for unhealthy node in cloud systems to minimize virtual machine downtime and interruptions during unhealthy events. It employs double machine learning combined with causal forest to produce precise and reliable mitigation recommendations based solely on limited observational data collected from the historical unhealthy events. To enhance the causal inference model, Deoxys further incorporates a policy fallback mechanism based on model uncertainty and action overriding mechanisms to (i) improve the reliability of the system, and (ii) strike a good tradeoff between downtime reduction and resource utilization, thereby enhancing the overall system performance. After deploying Deoxys in a large-scale cloud infrastructure at Microsoft, our observations demonstrate that Deoxys significantly reduces average VM downtime by 53% compared to a legacy policy, while leading to 49.5% lower VM interruption rate. This substantial improvement enhances the reliability and stability of cloud platforms, resulting in a seamless customer experience.

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have become the state-of-the-art in high-quality image generation. However, DPMs have an arbitrary noisy latent space with no interpretable or controllable semantics. Although there has been significant research effort to improve image sample quality, there is little work on representation-controlled generation using diffusion models. Specifically, causal modeling and controllable counterfactual generation using DPMs is an underexplored area. In this work, we propose CausalDiffAE, a diffusion-based causal representation learning framework to enable counterfactual generation according to a specified causal model. Our key idea is to use an encoder to extract high-level semantically meaningful causal variables from high-dimensional data and model stochastic variation using reverse diffusion. We propose a causal encoding mechanism that maps high-dimensional data to causally related latent factors and parameterize the causal mechanisms among latent factors using neural networks. To enforce the disentanglement of causal variables, we formulate a variational objective and leverage auxiliary label information in a prior to regularize the latent space. We propose a DDIM-based counterfactual generation procedure subject to do-interventions. Finally, to address the limited label supervision scenario, we also study the application of CausalDiffAE when a part of the training data is unlabeled, which also enables granular control over the strength of interventions in generating counterfactuals during inference. We empirically show that CausalDiffAE learns a disentangled latent space and is capable of generating high-quality counterfactual images.

Effective scheduling under tight resource, timing, and operational constraints underpins large-scale planning across sectors such as capital projects, manufacturing, logistics, and IT fleet transitions. However, the reliability of large language models (LLMs) when reasoning under high-constraint regimes is insufficiently characterized. To address this gap, we present R-ConstraintBench, a scalable framework that evaluates models on Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling Problems (RCPSP), an NP-Complete feasibility class, while difficulty increases via linear growth in constraints. R-ConstraintBench incrementally increases non-redundant precedence constraints in Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) and then introduces downtime, temporal windows, and disjunctive constraints. As an illustrative example, we instantiate the benchmark in a data center migration setting and evaluate multiple LLMs using feasibility and error analysis, identifying degradation thresholds and constraint types most associated with failure. Empirically, strong models are near-ceiling on precedence-only DAGs, but feasibility performance collapses when downtime, temporal windows, and disjunctive constraints interact, implicating constraint interaction, not graph depth, as the principal bottleneck. Performance on clean synthetic ramps also does not guarantee transfer to domain-grounded scenarios, underscoring limited generalization.

Understanding causality should be a core requirement of any attempt to build real impact through AI. Due to the inherent unobservability of counterfactuals, large randomised trials (RCTs) are the standard for causal inference. But large experiments are generically expensive, and randomisation carries its own costs, e.g. when suboptimal decisions are trialed. Recent work has proposed more sample-efficient alternatives to RCTs, but these are not adaptable to the downstream application for which the causal effect is sought. In this work, we develop a task-specific approach to experimental design and derive sampling strategies customised to particular downstream applications. Across a range of important tasks, real-world datasets, and sample sizes, our method outperforms other benchmarks, e.g. requiring an order-of-magnitude less data to match RCT performance on targeted marketing tasks.

Workflows are a fundamental component of automation in enterprise platforms, enabling the orchestration of tasks, data processing, and system integrations. Despite being widely used, building workflows can be complex, often requiring manual configuration through low-code platforms or visual programming tools. To simplify this process, we explore the use of generative foundation models, particularly vision-language models (VLMs), to automatically generate structured workflows from visual inputs. Translating hand-drawn sketches or computer-generated diagrams into executable workflows is challenging due to the ambiguity of free-form drawings, variations in diagram styles, and the difficulty of inferring execution logic from visual elements. To address this, we introduce StarFlow, a framework for generating structured workflow outputs from sketches using vision-language models. We curate a diverse dataset of workflow diagrams -- including synthetic, manually annotated, and real-world samples -- to enable robust training and evaluation. We finetune and benchmark multiple vision-language models, conducting a series of ablation studies to analyze the strengths and limitations of our approach. Our results show that finetuning significantly enhances structured workflow generation, outperforming large vision-language models on this task.

We study the problem of procedure planning in instructional videos, which aims to make a goal-oriented sequence of action steps given partial visual state observations. The motivation of this problem is to learn a structured and plannable state and action space. Recent works succeeded in sequence modeling of steps with only sequence-level annotations accessible during training, which overlooked the roles of states in the procedures. In this work, we point out that State CHangEs MAtter (SCHEMA) for procedure planning in instructional videos. We aim to establish a more structured state space by investigating the causal relations between steps and states in procedures. Specifically, we explicitly represent each step as state changes and track the state changes in procedures. For step representation, we leveraged the commonsense knowledge in large language models (LLMs) to describe the state changes of steps via our designed chain-of-thought prompting. For state change tracking, we align visual state observations with language state descriptions via cross-modal contrastive learning, and explicitly model the intermediate states of the procedure using LLM-generated state descriptions. Experiments on CrossTask, COIN, and NIV benchmark datasets demonstrate that our proposed SCHEMA model achieves state-of-the-art performance and obtains explainable visualizations.

Legal practitioners, particularly those early in their careers, face complex, high-stakes tasks that require adaptive, context-sensitive reasoning. While AI holds promise in supporting legal work, current datasets and models are narrowly focused on isolated subtasks and fail to capture the end-to-end decision-making required in real-world practice. To address this gap, we introduce LawFlow, a dataset of complete end-to-end legal workflows collected from trained law students, grounded in real-world business entity formation scenarios. Unlike prior datasets focused on input-output pairs or linear chains of thought, LawFlow captures dynamic, modular, and iterative reasoning processes that reflect the ambiguity, revision, and client-adaptive strategies of legal practice. Using LawFlow, we compare human and LLM-generated workflows, revealing systematic differences in structure, reasoning flexibility, and plan execution. Human workflows tend to be modular and adaptive, while LLM workflows are more sequential, exhaustive, and less sensitive to downstream implications. Our findings also suggest that legal professionals prefer AI to carry out supportive roles, such as brainstorming, identifying blind spots, and surfacing alternatives, rather than executing complex workflows end-to-end. Building on these findings, we propose a set of design suggestions, rooted in empirical observations, that align AI assistance with human goals of clarity, completeness, creativity, and efficiency, through hybrid planning, adaptive execution, and decision-point support. Our results highlight both the current limitations of LLMs in supporting complex legal workflows and opportunities for developing more collaborative, reasoning-aware legal AI systems. All data and code are available on our project page (https://minnesotanlp.github.io/LawFlow-website/).

Prompt-based probing has been widely used in evaluating the abilities of pretrained language models (PLMs). Unfortunately, recent studies have discovered such an evaluation may be inaccurate, inconsistent and unreliable. Furthermore, the lack of understanding its inner workings, combined with its wide applicability, has the potential to lead to unforeseen risks for evaluating and applying PLMs in real-world applications. To discover, understand and quantify the risks, this paper investigates the prompt-based probing from a causal view, highlights three critical biases which could induce biased results and conclusions, and proposes to conduct debiasing via causal intervention. This paper provides valuable insights for the design of unbiased datasets, better probing frameworks and more reliable evaluations of pretrained language models. Furthermore, our conclusions also echo that we need to rethink the criteria for identifying better pretrained language models. We openly released the source code and data at https://github.com/c-box/causalEval.

This review presents a comprehensive analysis of two emerging paradigms in AI-assisted software development: vibe coding and agentic coding. While both leverage large language models (LLMs), they differ fundamentally in autonomy, architectural design, and the role of the developer. Vibe coding emphasizes intuitive, human-in-the-loop interaction through prompt-based, conversational workflows that support ideation, experimentation, and creative exploration. In contrast, agentic coding enables autonomous software development through goal-driven agents capable of planning, executing, testing, and iterating tasks with minimal human intervention. We propose a detailed taxonomy spanning conceptual foundations, execution models, feedback loops, safety mechanisms, debugging strategies, and real-world tool ecosystems. Through comparative workflow analysis and 20 detailed use cases, we illustrate how vibe systems thrive in early-stage prototyping and education, while agentic systems excel in enterprise-grade automation, codebase refactoring, and CI/CD integration. We further examine emerging trends in hybrid architectures, where natural language interfaces are coupled with autonomous execution pipelines. Finally, we articulate a future roadmap for agentic AI, outlining the infrastructure needed for trustworthy, explainable, and collaborative systems. Our findings suggest that successful AI software engineering will rely not on choosing one paradigm, but on harmonizing their strengths within a unified, human-centered development lifecycle.

Recent advances in artificial intelligence reveal the limits of purely predictive systems and call for a shift toward causal and collaborative reasoning. Drawing inspiration from the revolution of Grothendieck in mathematics, we introduce the relativity of causal knowledge, which posits structural causal models (SCMs) are inherently imperfect, subjective representations embedded within networks of relationships. By leveraging category theory, we arrange SCMs into a functor category and show that their observational and interventional probability measures naturally form convex structures. This result allows us to encode non-intervened SCMs with convex spaces of probability measures. Next, using sheaf theory, we construct the network sheaf and cosheaf of causal knowledge. These structures enable the transfer of causal knowledge across the network while incorporating interventional consistency and the perspective of the subjects, ultimately leading to the formal, mathematical definition of relative causal knowledge.

Machine learning (ML) recourse techniques are increasingly used in high-stakes domains, providing end users with actions to alter ML predictions, but they assume ML developers understand what input variables can be changed. However, a recourse plan's actionability is subjective and unlikely to match developers' expectations completely. We present GAM Coach, a novel open-source system that adapts integer linear programming to generate customizable counterfactual explanations for Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), and leverages interactive visualizations to enable end users to iteratively generate recourse plans meeting their needs. A quantitative user study with 41 participants shows our tool is usable and useful, and users prefer personalized recourse plans over generic plans. Through a log analysis, we explore how users discover satisfactory recourse plans, and provide empirical evidence that transparency can lead to more opportunities for everyday users to discover counterintuitive patterns in ML models. GAM Coach is available at: https://poloclub.github.io/gam-coach/.

Reward models (RMs) are fundamental to aligning Large Language Models (LLMs) via human feedback, yet they often suffer from reward hacking. They tend to latch on to superficial or spurious attributes, such as response length or formatting, mistaking these cues learned from correlations in training data for the true causal drivers of quality (e.g., factuality, relevance). This occurs because standard training objectives struggle to disentangle these factors, leading to brittle RMs and misaligned policies. We introduce Crome (Causally Robust Reward Modeling), a novel framework grounded in an explicit causal model designed to mitigate reward hacking. Crome employs the following synthetic targeted augmentations during training: (1) Causal Augmentations, which are pairs that differ along specific causal attributes, to enforce sensitivity along each causal attribute individually, and (2) Neutral Augmentations, which are tie-label pairs varying primarily in spurious attributes, to enforce invariance along spurious attributes. Notably, our augmentations are produced without any knowledge of spurious factors, via answer interventions only along causal rubrics, that are identified by querying an oracle LLM. Empirically, Crome significantly outperforms standard baselines on RewardBench, improving average accuracy by up to 5.4% and achieving gains of up to 13.2% and 7.2% in specific categories. The robustness of Crome is further testified by the consistent gains obtained in a Best-of-N inference setting across increasing N, across various benchmarks, including the popular RewardBench (covering chat, chat-hard, safety, and reasoning tasks), the safety-focused WildGuardTest, and the reasoning-specific GSM8k.

Entities and events are crucial to natural language reasoning and common in procedural texts. Existing work has focused either exclusively on entity state tracking (e.g., whether a pan is hot) or on event reasoning (e.g., whether one would burn themselves by touching the pan), while these two tasks are often causally related. We propose CREPE, the first benchmark on causal reasoning of event plausibility and entity states. We show that most language models, including GPT-3, perform close to chance at .35 F1, lagging far behind human at .87 F1. We boost model performance to .59 F1 by creatively representing events as programming languages while prompting language models pretrained on code. By injecting the causal relations between entities and events as intermediate reasoning steps in our representation, we further boost the performance to .67 F1. Our findings indicate not only the challenge that CREPE brings for language models, but also the efficacy of code-like prompting combined with chain-of-thought prompting for multihop event reasoning.

Rule-based reasoning, a fundamental type of legal reasoning, enables us to draw conclusions by accurately applying a rule to a set of facts. We explore causal language models as rule-based reasoners, specifically with respect to compositional rules - rules consisting of multiple elements which form a complex logical expression. Reasoning about compositional rules is challenging because it requires multiple reasoning steps, and attending to the logical relationships between elements. We introduce a new prompting method, Chain of Logic, which elicits rule-based reasoning through decomposition (solving elements as independent threads of logic), and recomposition (recombining these sub-answers to resolve the underlying logical expression). This method was inspired by the IRAC (Issue, Rule, Application, Conclusion) framework, a sequential reasoning approach used by lawyers. We evaluate chain of logic across eight rule-based reasoning tasks involving three distinct compositional rules from the LegalBench benchmark and demonstrate it consistently outperforms other prompting methods, including chain of thought and self-ask, using open-source and commercial language models.

The increasing adoption of agentic workflows across diverse domains brings a critical need to scalably and systematically evaluate the complex traces these systems generate. Current evaluation methods depend on manual, domain-specific human analysis of lengthy workflow traces - an approach that does not scale with the growing complexity and volume of agentic outputs. Error analysis in these settings is further complicated by the interplay of external tool outputs and language model reasoning, making it more challenging than traditional software debugging. In this work, we (1) articulate the need for robust and dynamic evaluation methods for agentic workflow traces, (2) introduce a formal taxonomy of error types encountered in agentic systems, and (3) present a set of 148 large human-annotated traces (TRAIL) constructed using this taxonomy and grounded in established agentic benchmarks. To ensure ecological validity, we curate traces from both single and multi-agent systems, focusing on real-world applications such as software engineering and open-world information retrieval. Our evaluations reveal that modern long context LLMs perform poorly at trace debugging, with the best Gemini-2.5-pro model scoring a mere 11% on TRAIL. Our dataset and code are made publicly available to support and accelerate future research in scalable evaluation for agentic workflows.

The ability to perform causal reasoning is widely considered a core feature of intelligence. In this work, we investigate whether large language models (LLMs) can coherently reason about causality. Much of the existing work in natural language processing (NLP) focuses on evaluating commonsense causal reasoning in LLMs, thus failing to assess whether a model can perform causal inference in accordance with a set of well-defined formal rules. To address this, we propose a new NLP task, causal inference in natural language, inspired by the "causal inference engine" postulated by Judea Pearl et al. We compose a large dataset, CLadder, with 10K samples: based on a collection of causal graphs and queries (associational, interventional, and counterfactual), we obtain symbolic questions and ground-truth answers, through an oracle causal inference engine. These are then translated into natural language. We evaluate multiple LLMs on our dataset, and we introduce and evaluate a bespoke chain-of-thought prompting strategy, CausalCoT. We show that our task is highly challenging for LLMs, and we conduct an in-depth analysis to gain deeper insights into the causal reasoning abilities of LLMs. Our data is open-sourced at https://huggingface.co/datasets/causalNLP/cladder, and our code can be found at https://github.com/causalNLP/cladder.

Fair machine learning aims to prevent discrimination against individuals or sub-populations based on sensitive attributes such as gender and race. In recent years, causal inference methods have been increasingly used in fair machine learning to measure unfairness by causal effects. However, current methods assume that the true causal graph is given, which is often not true in real-world applications. To address this limitation, this paper proposes a framework for achieving causal fairness based on the notion of interventions when the true causal graph is partially known. The proposed approach involves modeling fair prediction using a Partially Directed Acyclic Graph (PDAG), specifically, a class of causal DAGs that can be learned from observational data combined with domain knowledge. The PDAG is used to measure causal fairness, and a constrained optimization problem is formulated to balance between fairness and accuracy. Results on both simulated and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of this method.

Causal discovery, i.e., inferring underlying cause-effect relationships from observations of a scene or system, is an inherent mechanism in human cognition, but has been shown to be highly challenging to automate. The majority of approaches in the literature aiming for this task consider constrained scenarios with fully observed variables or data from stationary time-series. In this work we aim for causal discovery in a more general class of scenarios, scenes with non-stationary behavior over time. For our purposes we here regard a scene as a composition objects interacting with each other over time. Non-stationarity is modeled as stationarity conditioned on an underlying variable, a state, which can be of varying dimension, more or less hidden given observations of the scene, and also depend more or less directly on these observations. We propose a probabilistic deep learning approach called State-Dependent Causal Inference (SDCI) for causal discovery in such conditionally stationary time-series data. Results in two different synthetic scenarios show that this method is able to recover the underlying causal dependencies with high accuracy even in cases with hidden states.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success across various domains. However, a fundamental question remains: Can LLMs effectively utilize causal knowledge for prediction and generation? Through empirical studies, we find that LLMs trained directly on large-scale data often capture spurious correlations rather than true causal relationships, leading to suboptimal performance, especially in out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios. To address this challenge, we propose Causal Attention Tuning (CAT), a novel approach that injects fine-grained causal knowledge into the attention mechanism. We propose an automated pipeline that leverages human priors to automatically generate token-level causal signals and introduce the Re-Attention mechanism to guide training, helping the model focus on causal structures while mitigating noise and biases in attention scores. Experimental results on our proposed Spurious Token Game (STG) benchmark and multiple downstream tasks demonstrate that our approach effectively leverages causal knowledge for prediction and remains robust in OOD scenarios. Implementation details can be found at https://github.com/Kairong-Han/CAT.

The task of root cause analysis (RCA) is to identify the root causes of system faults/failures by analyzing system monitoring data. Efficient RCA can greatly accelerate system failure recovery and mitigate system damages or financial losses. However, previous research has mostly focused on developing offline RCA algorithms, which often require manually initiating the RCA process, a significant amount of time and data to train a robust model, and then being retrained from scratch for a new system fault. In this paper, we propose CORAL, a novel online RCA framework that can automatically trigger the RCA process and incrementally update the RCA model. CORAL consists of Trigger Point Detection, Incremental Disentangled Causal Graph Learning, and Network Propagation-based Root Cause Localization. The Trigger Point Detection component aims to detect system state transitions automatically and in near-real-time. To achieve this, we develop an online trigger point detection approach based on multivariate singular spectrum analysis and cumulative sum statistics. To efficiently update the RCA model, we propose an incremental disentangled causal graph learning approach to decouple the state-invariant and state-dependent information. After that, CORAL applies a random walk with restarts to the updated causal graph to accurately identify root causes. The online RCA process terminates when the causal graph and the generated root cause list converge. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets with case studies demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed framework.

Time-series causal discovery (TSCD) is a fundamental problem of machine learning. However, existing synthetic datasets cannot properly evaluate or predict the algorithms' performance on real data. This study introduces the CausalTime pipeline to generate time-series that highly resemble the real data and with ground truth causal graphs for quantitative performance evaluation. The pipeline starts from real observations in a specific scenario and produces a matching benchmark dataset. Firstly, we harness deep neural networks along with normalizing flow to accurately capture realistic dynamics. Secondly, we extract hypothesized causal graphs by performing importance analysis on the neural network or leveraging prior knowledge. Thirdly, we derive the ground truth causal graphs by splitting the causal model into causal term, residual term, and noise term. Lastly, using the fitted network and the derived causal graph, we generate corresponding versatile time-series proper for algorithm assessment. In the experiments, we validate the fidelity of the generated data through qualitative and quantitative experiments, followed by a benchmarking of existing TSCD algorithms using these generated datasets. CausalTime offers a feasible solution to evaluating TSCD algorithms in real applications and can be generalized to a wide range of fields. For easy use of the proposed approach, we also provide a user-friendly website, hosted on www.causaltime.cc.

We provide an optimization-based framework to perform counterfactual analysis in a dynamic model with hidden states. Our framework is grounded in the ``abduction, action, and prediction'' approach to answer counterfactual queries and handles two key challenges where (1) the states are hidden and (2) the model is dynamic. Recognizing the lack of knowledge on the underlying causal mechanism and the possibility of infinitely many such mechanisms, we optimize over this space and compute upper and lower bounds on the counterfactual quantity of interest. Our work brings together ideas from causality, state-space models, simulation, and optimization, and we apply it on a breast cancer case study. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to compute lower and upper bounds on a counterfactual query in a dynamic latent-state model.

While interpretability research has shed light on some internal algorithms utilized by transformer-based LLMs, reasoning in natural language, with its deep contextuality and ambiguity, defies easy categorization. As a result, formulating clear and motivating questions for circuit analysis that rely on well-defined in-domain and out-of-domain examples required for causal interventions is challenging. Although significant work has investigated circuits for specific tasks, such as indirect object identification (IOI), deciphering natural language reasoning through circuits remains difficult due to its inherent complexity. In this work, we take initial steps to characterize causal reasoning in LLMs by analyzing clear-cut cause-and-effect sentences like "I opened an umbrella because it started raining," where causal interventions may be possible through carefully crafted scenarios using GPT-2 small. Our findings indicate that causal syntax is localized within the first 2-3 layers, while certain heads in later layers exhibit heightened sensitivity to nonsensical variations of causal sentences. This suggests that models may infer reasoning by (1) detecting syntactic cues and (2) isolating distinct heads in the final layers that focus on semantic relationships.

Despite the notable advancements of existing prompting methods, such as In-Context Learning and Chain-of-Thought for Large Language Models (LLMs), they still face challenges related to various biases. Traditional debiasing methods primarily focus on the model training stage, including approaches based on data augmentation and reweighting, yet they struggle with the complex biases inherent in LLMs. To address such limitations, the causal relationship behind the prompting methods is uncovered using a structural causal model, and a novel causal prompting method based on front-door adjustment is proposed to effectively mitigate LLMs biases. In specific, causal intervention is achieved by designing the prompts without accessing the parameters and logits of LLMs. The chain-of-thought generated by LLM is employed as the mediator variable and the causal effect between input prompts and output answers is calculated through front-door adjustment to mitigate model biases. Moreover, to accurately represent the chain-of-thoughts and estimate the causal effects, contrastive learning is used to fine-tune the encoder of chain-of-thought by aligning its space with that of the LLM. Experimental results show that the proposed causal prompting approach achieves excellent performance across seven natural language processing datasets on both open-source and closed-source LLMs.

Understanding causal relationships between machines is crucial for fault diagnosis and optimization in manufacturing processes. Real-world datasets frequently exhibit up to 90% missing data and high dimensionality from hundreds of sensors. These datasets also include domain-specific expert knowledge and chronological order information, reflecting the recording order across different machines, which is pivotal for discerning causal relationships within the manufacturing data. However, previous methods for handling missing data in scenarios akin to real-world conditions have not been able to effectively utilize expert knowledge. Conversely, prior methods that can incorporate expert knowledge struggle with datasets that exhibit missing values. Therefore, we propose COKE to construct causal graphs in manufacturing datasets by leveraging expert knowledge and chronological order among sensors without imputing missing data. Utilizing the characteristics of the recipe, we maximize the use of samples with missing values, derive embeddings from intersections with an initial graph that incorporates expert knowledge and chronological order, and create a sensor ordering graph. The graph-generating process has been optimized by an actor-critic architecture to obtain a final graph that has a maximum reward. Experimental evaluations in diverse settings of sensor quantities and missing proportions demonstrate that our approach compared with the benchmark methods shows an average improvement of 39.9% in the F1-score. Moreover, the F1-score improvement can reach 62.6% when considering the configuration similar to real-world datasets, and 85.0% in real-world semiconductor datasets. The source code is available at https://github.com/OuTingYun/COKE.

Causal Representation Learning (CRL) aims to uncover the data-generating process and identify the underlying causal variables and relations, whose evaluation remains inherently challenging due to the requirement of known ground-truth causal variables and causal structure. Existing evaluations often rely on either simplistic synthetic datasets or downstream performance on real-world tasks, generally suffering a dilemma between realism and evaluative precision. In this paper, we introduce a new benchmark for CRL using high-fidelity simulated visual data that retains both realistic visual complexity and, more importantly, access to ground-truth causal generating processes. The dataset comprises around 200 thousand images and 3 million video frames across 24 sub-scenes in four domains: static image generation, dynamic physical simulations, robotic manipulations, and traffic situation analysis. These scenarios range from static to dynamic settings, simple to complex structures, and single to multi-agent interactions, offering a comprehensive testbed that hopefully bridges the gap between rigorous evaluation and real-world applicability. In addition, we provide flexible access to the underlying causal structures, allowing users to modify or configure them to align with the required assumptions in CRL, such as available domain labels, temporal dependencies, or intervention histories. Leveraging this benchmark, we evaluated representative CRL methods across diverse paradigms and offered empirical insights to assist practitioners and newcomers in choosing or extending appropriate CRL frameworks to properly address specific types of real problems that can benefit from the CRL perspective. Welcome to visit our: Project page:https://causal-verse.github.io/, Dataset:https://huggingface.co/CausalVerse.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved significant success across various domains. However, the inherent complexity of causal problems and causal theory poses challenges in accurately describing them in natural language, making it difficult for LLMs to comprehend and use them effectively. Causal methods are not easily conveyed through natural language, which hinders LLMs' ability to apply them accurately. Additionally, causal datasets are typically tabular, while LLMs excel in handling natural language data, creating a structural mismatch that impedes effective reasoning with tabular data. This lack of causal reasoning capability limits the development of LLMs. To address these challenges, we have equipped the LLM with causal tools within an agent framework, named the Causal Agent, enabling it to tackle causal problems. The causal agent comprises tools, memory, and reasoning modules. In the tools module, the causal agent applies causal methods to align tabular data with natural language. In the reasoning module, the causal agent employs the ReAct framework to perform reasoning through multiple iterations with the tools. In the memory module, the causal agent maintains a dictionary instance where the keys are unique names and the values are causal graphs. To verify the causal ability of the causal agent, we established a benchmark consisting of four levels of causal problems: variable level, edge level, causal graph level, and causal effect level. We generated a test dataset of 1.3K using ChatGPT-3.5 for these four levels of issues and tested the causal agent on the datasets. Our methodology demonstrates remarkable efficacy on the four-level causal problems, with accuracy rates all above 80%. For further insights and implementation details, our code is accessible via the GitHub repository https://github.com/Kairong-Han/Causal_Agent.

It is commonplace to encounter heterogeneous or nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process changes across domains or over time. Such a distribution shift feature presents both challenges and opportunities for causal discovery. In this paper, we develop a framework for causal discovery from such data, called Constraint-based causal Discovery from heterogeneous/NOnstationary Data (CD-NOD), to find causal skeleton and directions and estimate the properties of mechanism changes. First, we propose an enhanced constraint-based procedure to detect variables whose local mechanisms change and recover the skeleton of the causal structure over observed variables. Second, we present a method to determine causal orientations by making use of independent changes in the data distribution implied by the underlying causal model, benefiting from information carried by changing distributions. After learning the causal structure, next, we investigate how to efficiently estimate the "driving force" of the nonstationarity of a causal mechanism. That is, we aim to extract from data a low-dimensional representation of changes. The proposed methods are nonparametric, with no hard restrictions on data distributions and causal mechanisms, and do not rely on window segmentation. Furthermore, we find that data heterogeneity benefits causal structure identification even with particular types of confounders. Finally, we show the connection between heterogeneity/nonstationarity and soft intervention in causal discovery. Experimental results on various synthetic and real-world data sets (task-fMRI and stock market data) are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methods.

We present a conditional text generation framework that posits sentential expressions of possible causes and effects. This framework depends on two novel resources we develop in the course of this work: a very large-scale collection of English sentences expressing causal patterns CausalBank; and a refinement over previous work on constructing large lexical causal knowledge graphs Cause Effect Graph. Further, we extend prior work in lexically-constrained decoding to support disjunctive positive constraints. Human assessment confirms that our approach gives high-quality and diverse outputs. Finally, we use CausalBank to perform continued training of an encoder supporting a recent state-of-the-art model for causal reasoning, leading to a 3-point improvement on the COPA challenge set, with no change in model architecture.

For text-based AI systems to interact in the real world, causal reasoning is an essential skill. Since interventional data is costly to generate, we study to what extent an agent can learn causal reasoning from passive data. Specifically, we consider an axiomatic training setup where an agent learns from multiple demonstrations of a causal axiom (or rule), rather than incorporating the axiom as an inductive bias or inferring it from data values. A key question is whether the agent would learn to generalize from the axiom demonstrations to new scenarios. For example, if a transformer model is trained on demonstrations of the causal transitivity axiom over small graphs, would it generalize to applying the transitivity axiom over large graphs? Our results, based on a novel axiomatic training scheme, indicate that such generalization is possible. We consider the task of inferring whether a variable causes another variable, given a causal graph structure. We find that a 67 million parameter transformer model, when trained on linear causal chains (along with some noisy variations) can generalize well to new kinds of graphs, including longer causal chains, causal chains with reversed order, and graphs with branching; even when it is not explicitly trained for such settings. Our model performs at par (or even better) than many larger language models such as GPT-4, Gemini Pro, and Phi-3. Overall, our axiomatic training framework provides a new paradigm of learning causal reasoning from passive data that can be used to learn arbitrary axioms, as long as sufficient demonstrations can be generated.

In view of the problem that each subchain in the chain-of-model (CoM) relies only on the information of the previous subchain and may lose long-range dependencies due to the causal mask blocking the global context flow between multi-level subchains, this work proposes a graph of causal evolution (GoCE). Its core principle is to map the implicit token representation into a differentiable and sparse causal adjacency matrix, then permeate causal constraints through each layer of calculation using causal-masked attention and causal-MoE. By combining intervention consistency loss test and self-evolution gate, the dynamic balance between causal structure learning and adaptive updating of transformer architecture is realized. The researcher built experimental environments in sandboxes built with Claude Sonnet 4, o4-mini-high, and DeepSeek R1 respectively with the transformer variant architecture introduced in GoCE. It is evaluated on publicly available datasets including CLUTRR, CLADDER, EX-FEVER, and CausalQA and compared with the baseline LLMs. The finding proves that GoCE strengthens the transformer's ability to capture long-range causal dependencies, while the ability to self-evolve is improved. It not only surpasses the design of CoM in terms of design principles, but also provides experience for future research on causal learning and continuous adaptive improvement.

This paper introduces the Opus Prompt Intention Framework, designed to improve complex Workflow Generation with instruction-tuned Large Language Models (LLMs). We propose an intermediate Intention Capture layer between user queries and Workflow Generation, implementing the Opus Workflow Intention Framework, which consists of extracting Workflow Signals from user queries, interpreting them into structured Workflow Intention objects, and generating Workflows based on these Intentions. Our results show that this layer enables LLMs to produce logical and meaningful outputs that scale reliably as query complexity increases. On a synthetic benchmark of 1,000 multi-intent query-Workflow(s) pairs, applying the Opus Prompt Intention Framework to Workflow Generation yields consistent improvements in semantic Workflow similarity metrics. In this paper, we introduce the Opus Prompt Intention Framework by applying the concepts of Workflow Signal and Workflow Intention to LLM-driven Workflow Generation. We present a reproducible, customizable LLM-based Intention Capture system to extract Workflow Signals and Workflow Intentions from user queries. Finally, we provide empirical evidence that the proposed system significantly improves Workflow Generation quality compared to direct generation from user queries, particularly in cases of Mixed Intention Elicitation.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have revolutionized artificial intelligence (AI) by enabling human like text generation and natural language understanding. However, their reliance on static training data limits their ability to respond to dynamic, real time queries, resulting in outdated or inaccurate outputs. Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) has emerged as a solution, enhancing LLMs by integrating real time data retrieval to provide contextually relevant and up-to-date responses. Despite its promise, traditional RAG systems are constrained by static workflows and lack the adaptability required for multistep reasoning and complex task management. Agentic Retrieval-Augmented Generation (Agentic RAG) transcends these limitations by embedding autonomous AI agents into the RAG pipeline. These agents leverage agentic design patterns reflection, planning, tool use, and multiagent collaboration to dynamically manage retrieval strategies, iteratively refine contextual understanding, and adapt workflows to meet complex task requirements. This integration enables Agentic RAG systems to deliver unparalleled flexibility, scalability, and context awareness across diverse applications. This survey provides a comprehensive exploration of Agentic RAG, beginning with its foundational principles and the evolution of RAG paradigms. It presents a detailed taxonomy of Agentic RAG architectures, highlights key applications in industries such as healthcare, finance, and education, and examines practical implementation strategies. Additionally, it addresses challenges in scaling these systems, ensuring ethical decision making, and optimizing performance for real-world applications, while providing detailed insights into frameworks and tools for implementing Agentic RAG.

Learning behavioral patterns from observational data has been a de-facto approach to motion forecasting. Yet, the current paradigm suffers from two shortcomings: brittle under distribution shifts and inefficient for knowledge transfer. In this work, we propose to address these challenges from a causal representation perspective. We first introduce a causal formalism of motion forecasting, which casts the problem as a dynamic process with three groups of latent variables, namely invariant variables, style confounders, and spurious features. We then introduce a learning framework that treats each group separately: (i) unlike the common practice mixing datasets collected from different locations, we exploit their subtle distinctions by means of an invariance loss encouraging the model to suppress spurious correlations; (ii) we devise a modular architecture that factorizes the representations of invariant mechanisms and style confounders to approximate a sparse causal graph; (iii) we introduce a style contrastive loss that not only enforces the structure of style representations but also serves as a self-supervisory signal for test-time refinement on the fly. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets show that our proposed method improves the robustness and reusability of learned motion representations, significantly outperforming prior state-of-the-art motion forecasting models for out-of-distribution generalization and low-shot transfer.

Interpreting the inner function of neural networks is crucial for the trustworthy development and deployment of these black-box models. Prior interpretability methods focus on correlation-based measures to attribute model decisions to individual examples. However, these measures are susceptible to noise and spurious correlations encoded in the model during the training phase (e.g., biased inputs, model overfitting, or misspecification). Moreover, this process has proven to result in noisy and unstable attributions that prevent any transparent understanding of the model's behavior. In this paper, we develop a robust interventional-based method grounded by causal analysis to capture cause-effect mechanisms in pre-trained neural networks and their relation to the prediction. Our novel approach relies on path interventions to infer the causal mechanisms within hidden layers and isolate relevant and necessary information (to model prediction), avoiding noisy ones. The result is task-specific causal explanatory graphs that can audit model behavior and express the actual causes underlying its performance. We apply our method to vision models trained on classification tasks. On image classification tasks, we provide extensive quantitative experiments to show that our approach can capture more stable and faithful explanations than standard attribution-based methods. Furthermore, the underlying causal graphs reveal the neural interactions in the model, making it a valuable tool in other applications (e.g., model repair).

Counterfactual data augmentation has recently emerged as a method to mitigate confounding biases in the training data for a machine learning model. These biases, such as spurious correlations, arise due to various observed and unobserved confounding variables in the data generation process. In this paper, we formally analyze how confounding biases impact downstream classifiers and present a causal viewpoint to the solutions based on counterfactual data augmentation. We explore how removing confounding biases serves as a means to learn invariant features, ultimately aiding in generalization beyond the observed data distribution. Additionally, we present a straightforward yet powerful algorithm for generating counterfactual images, which effectively mitigates the influence of confounding effects on downstream classifiers. Through experiments on MNIST variants and the CelebA datasets, we demonstrate the effectiveness and practicality of our approach.

Causal inference is a critical task across fields such as healthcare, economics, and the social sciences. While recent advances in machine learning, especially those based on the deep-learning architectures, have shown potential in estimating causal effects, existing approaches often fall short in handling complex causal structures and lack adaptability across various causal scenarios. In this paper, we present a novel transformer-based method for causal inference that overcomes these challenges. The core innovation of our model lies in its integration of causal Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) directly into the attention mechanism, enabling it to accurately model the underlying causal structure. This allows for flexible estimation of both average treatment effects (ATE) and conditional average treatment effects (CATE). Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our approach surpasses existing methods in estimating causal effects across a wide range of scenarios. The flexibility and robustness of our model make it a valuable tool for researchers and practitioners tackling complex causal inference problems.

Automating enterprise workflows could unlock $4 trillion/year in productivity gains. Despite being of interest to the data management community for decades, the ultimate vision of end-to-end workflow automation has remained elusive. Current solutions rely on process mining and robotic process automation (RPA), in which a bot is hard-coded to follow a set of predefined rules for completing a workflow. Through case studies of a hospital and large B2B enterprise, we find that the adoption of RPA has been inhibited by high set-up costs (12-18 months), unreliable execution (60% initial accuracy), and burdensome maintenance (requiring multiple FTEs). Multimodal foundation models (FMs) such as GPT-4 offer a promising new approach for end-to-end workflow automation given their generalized reasoning and planning abilities. To study these capabilities we propose ECLAIR, a system to automate enterprise workflows with minimal human supervision. We conduct initial experiments showing that multimodal FMs can address the limitations of traditional RPA with (1) near-human-level understanding of workflows (93% accuracy on a workflow understanding task) and (2) instant set-up with minimal technical barrier (based solely on a natural language description of a workflow, ECLAIR achieves end-to-end completion rates of 40%). We identify human-AI collaboration, validation, and self-improvement as open challenges, and suggest ways they can be solved with data management techniques. Code is available at: https://github.com/HazyResearch/eclair-agents

Commonsense causality reasoning (CCR) aims at identifying plausible causes and effects in natural language descriptions that are deemed reasonable by an average person. Although being of great academic and practical interest, this problem is still shadowed by the lack of a well-posed theoretical framework; existing work usually relies on deep language models wholeheartedly, and is potentially susceptible to confounding co-occurrences. Motivated by classical causal principles, we articulate the central question of CCR and draw parallels between human subjects in observational studies and natural languages to adopt CCR to the potential-outcomes framework, which is the first such attempt for commonsense tasks. We propose a novel framework, ROCK, to Reason O(A)bout Commonsense K(C)ausality, which utilizes temporal signals as incidental supervision, and balances confounding effects using temporal propensities that are analogous to propensity scores. The ROCK implementation is modular and zero-shot, and demonstrates good CCR capabilities.

Large Language Models (LLMs), with their exceptional ability to handle a wide range of tasks, have driven significant advancements in tackling reasoning and planning tasks, wherein decomposing complex problems into executable workflows is a crucial step in this process. Existing workflow evaluation frameworks either focus solely on holistic performance or suffer from limitations such as restricted scenario coverage, simplistic workflow structures, and lax evaluation standards. To this end, we introduce WorFBench, a unified workflow generation benchmark with multi-faceted scenarios and intricate graph workflow structures. Additionally, we present WorFEval, a systemic evaluation protocol utilizing subsequence and subgraph matching algorithms to accurately quantify the LLM agent's workflow generation capabilities. Through comprehensive evaluations across different types of LLMs, we discover distinct gaps between the sequence planning capabilities and graph planning capabilities of LLM agents, with even GPT-4 exhibiting a gap of around 15%. We also train two open-source models and evaluate their generalization abilities on held-out tasks. Furthermore, we observe that the generated workflows can enhance downstream tasks, enabling them to achieve superior performance with less time during inference. Code and dataset will be available at https://github.com/zjunlp/WorFBench.

Traditional agentic workflows rely on external prompts to manage interactions with tools and the environment, which limits the autonomy of reasoning models. We position Large Agent Models (LAMs) that internalize the generation of Chain-of-Action (CoA), enabling the model to autonomously decide when and how to use external tools. Our proposed AutoCoA framework combines supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and reinforcement learning (RL), allowing the model to seamlessly switch between reasoning and action while efficiently managing environment interactions. Main components include step-level action triggering, trajectory-level CoA optimization, and an internal world model to reduce real-environment interaction costs. Evaluations on open-domain QA tasks demonstrate that AutoCoA-trained agent models significantly outperform ReAct-based workflows in task completion, especially in tasks that require long-term reasoning and multi-step actions. Code and dataset are available at https://github.com/ADaM-BJTU/AutoCoA

Recovering causal relationships from data is an important problem. Using observational data, one can typically only recover causal graphs up to a Markov equivalence class and additional assumptions or interventional data are needed for complete recovery. In this work, under some standard assumptions, we study causal graph discovery via adaptive interventions with node-dependent interventional costs. For this setting, we show that no algorithm can achieve an approximation guarantee that is asymptotically better than linear in the number of vertices with respect to the verification number; a well-established benchmark for adaptive search algorithms. Motivated by this negative result, we define a new benchmark that captures the worst-case interventional cost for any search algorithm. Furthermore, with respect to this new benchmark, we provide adaptive search algorithms that achieve logarithmic approximations under various settings: atomic, bounded size interventions and generalized cost objectives.

In causal bandit problems, the action set consists of interventions on variables of a causal graph. Several researchers have recently studied such bandit problems and pointed out their practical applications. However, all existing works rely on a restrictive and impractical assumption that the learner is given full knowledge of the causal graph structure upfront. In this paper, we develop novel causal bandit algorithms without knowing the causal graph. Our algorithms work well for causal trees, causal forests and a general class of causal graphs. The regret guarantees of our algorithms greatly improve upon those of standard multi-armed bandit (MAB) algorithms under mild conditions. Lastly, we prove our mild conditions are necessary: without them one cannot do better than standard MAB algorithms.

Recent studies have shown that carefully designed workflows coordinating large language models(LLMs) significantly enhance task-solving capabilities compared to using a single model. While an increasing number of works focus on autonomous workflow construction, most existing approaches rely solely on historical experience, leading to limitations in efficiency and adaptability. We argue that while historical experience is valuable, workflow construction should also flexibly respond to the unique characteristics of each task. To this end, we propose an a priori dynamic framework for automated workflow construction. Our framework first leverages Q-table learning to optimize the decision space, guiding agent decisions and enabling effective use of historical experience. At the same time, agents evaluate the current task progress and make a priori decisions regarding the next executing agent, allowing the system to proactively select the more suitable workflow structure for each given task. Additionally, we incorporate mechanisms such as cold-start initialization, early stopping, and pruning to further improve system efficiency. Experimental evaluations on four benchmark datasets demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of our approach. Compared to state-of-the-art baselines, our method achieves an average improvement of 4.05%, while reducing workflow construction and inference costs to only 30.68%-48.31% of those required by existing methods.

Recent developments, particularly OpenAI's O1 model, have demonstrated the remarkable potential of Large Language Models (LLMs) for complex reasoning tasks. Through analysis of O1's outputs and provided sample Chain-of-Thought (CoT) demonstrations, we observe that it approaches problem-solving in a distinctly human-like manner, systematically brainstorming ideas, testing hypotheses, verifying results, and planning comprehensive solutions. These sophisticated reasoning capabilities remain notably absent in other state-of-the-art language models. In this paper, we hypothesize that this performance gap stems from the limited availability of high-quality reasoning process data in current training sets. We demonstrate that by constructing a specialized dataset focused on explicit problem-solving workflows ("worked solutions"), we can elicit substantially improved planning capabilities from existing models. Additionally, we propose the Reasoning Enhancement Loop (REL), a method for generating synthetic worked solutions.

Recent advances in spoken dialogue language models (SDLMs) reflect growing interest in shifting from turn-based to full-duplex systems, where the models continuously perceive user speech streams while generating responses. This simultaneous listening and speaking design enables real-time interaction and the agent can handle dynamic conversational behaviors like user barge-in. However, during the listening phase, existing systems keep the agent idle by repeatedly predicting the silence token, which departs from human behavior: we usually engage in lightweight thinking during conversation rather than remaining absent-minded. Inspired by this, we propose Chronological Thinking, a on-the-fly conversational thinking mechanism that aims to improve response quality in full-duplex SDLMs. Specifically, chronological thinking presents a paradigm shift from conventional LLM thinking approaches, such as Chain-of-Thought, purpose-built for streaming acoustic input. (1) Strictly causal: the agent reasons incrementally while listening, updating internal hypotheses only from past audio with no lookahead. (2) No additional latency: reasoning is amortized during the listening window; once the user stops speaking, the agent halts thinking and begins speaking without further delay. Experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of chronological thinking through both objective metrics and human evaluations show consistent improvements in response quality. Furthermore, chronological thinking robustly handles conversational dynamics and attains competitive performance on full-duplex interaction metrics.

Augmented Language Models (ALMs) blend the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) with tools that allow for knowledge retrieval and action execution. Existing ALM systems trigger LLM thought processes while pulling observations from these tools in an interleaved fashion. Specifically, an LLM reasons to call an external tool, gets halted to fetch the tool's response, and then decides the next action based on all preceding response tokens. Such a paradigm, though straightforward and easy to implement, often leads to huge computation complexity from redundant prompts and repeated execution. This study addresses such challenges for the first time, proposing a modular paradigm ReWOO (Reasoning WithOut Observation) that detaches the reasoning process from external observations, thus significantly reducing token consumption. Comprehensive evaluations across six public NLP benchmarks and a curated dataset reveal consistent performance enhancements with our proposed methodology. Notably, ReWOO achieves 5x token efficiency and 4% accuracy improvement on HotpotQA, a multi-step reasoning benchmark. Furthermore, ReWOO demonstrates robustness under tool-failure scenarios. Beyond prompt efficiency, decoupling parametric modules from non-parametric tool calls enables instruction fine-tuning to offload LLMs into smaller language models, thus substantially reducing model parameters. Our illustrative work offloads reasoning ability from 175B GPT3.5 into 7B LLaMA, demonstrating the significant potential for truly efficient and scalable ALM systems.

Event Causality Identification (ECI) focuses on extracting causal relations between events in texts. Existing methods for ECI primarily rely on causal features and external knowledge. However, these approaches fall short in two dimensions: (1) causal features between events in a text often lack explicit clues, and (2) external knowledge may introduce bias, while specific problems require tailored analyses. To address these issues, we propose SemDI - a simple and effective Semantic Dependency Inquiry Network for ECI. SemDI captures semantic dependencies within the context using a unified encoder. Then, it utilizes a Cloze Analyzer to generate a fill-in token based on comprehensive context understanding. Finally, this fill-in token is used to inquire about the causal relation between two events. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of SemDI, surpassing state-of-the-art methods on three widely used benchmarks. Code is available at https://github.com/hrlics/SemDI.

This position paper argues for, and offers, a critical lens through which to examine the current AI frenzy in the landscape architecture profession. In it, the authors propose five archetypes or mental modes that landscape architects might inhabit when thinking about AI. Rather than limiting judgments of AI use to a single axis of acceleration, these archetypes and corresponding narratives exist along a relational spectrum and are permeable, allowing LAs to take on and switch between them according to context. We model these relationships between the archetypes and their contributions to AI advancement using a causal loop diagram (CLD), and with those interactions argue that more nuanced ways of approaching AI might also open new modes of practice in the new digital economy.

Interpretability research now offers a variety of techniques for identifying abstract internal mechanisms in neural networks. Can such techniques be used to predict how models will behave on out-of-distribution examples? In this work, we provide a positive answer to this question. Through a diverse set of language modeling tasks--including symbol manipulation, knowledge retrieval, and instruction following--we show that the most robust features for correctness prediction are those that play a distinctive causal role in the model's behavior. Specifically, we propose two methods that leverage causal mechanisms to predict the correctness of model outputs: counterfactual simulation (checking whether key causal variables are realized) and value probing (using the values of those variables to make predictions). Both achieve high AUC-ROC in distribution and outperform methods that rely on causal-agnostic features in out-of-distribution settings, where predicting model behaviors is more crucial. Our work thus highlights a novel and significant application for internal causal analysis of language models.

Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) is a powerful method for detecting causality in coupled nonlinear dynamical systems, providing a model-free approach to capture dynamic causal interactions. Partial Cross Mapping (PCM) was introduced as an extension of CCM to address indirect causality in three-variable systems by comparing cross-mapping quality between direct cause-effect mapping and indirect mapping through an intermediate conditioning variable. However, PCM remains limited to univariate delay embeddings in its cross-mapping processes. In this work, we extend PCM to the multivariate setting, introducing multiPCM, which leverages multivariate embeddings to more effectively distinguish indirect causal relationships. We further propose a multivariate cross-mapping framework (MXMap) for causal discovery in dynamical systems. This two-phase framework combines (1) pairwise CCM tests to establish an initial causal graph and (2) multiPCM to refine the graph by pruning indirect causal connections. Through experiments on simulated data and the ERA5 Reanalysis weather dataset, we demonstrate the effectiveness of MXMap. Additionally, MXMap is compared against several baseline methods, showing advantages in accuracy and causal graph refinement.

Large Language Models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in code generation, yet they often struggle with complex programming tasks that require deep algorithmic reasoning. While process supervision through learned reward models shows promise in guiding reasoning steps, it requires expensive training data and suffers from unreliable evaluation. We propose Outcome-Refining Process Supervision, a novel paradigm that treats outcome refinement itself as the process to be supervised. Our framework leverages concrete execution signals to ground the supervision of reasoning steps, while using tree-structured exploration to maintain multiple solution trajectories simultaneously. Experiments demonstrate that our approach enables even smaller models to achieve high success accuracy and performance metrics on competitive programming tasks, creates more reliable verification than traditional reward models without requiring training PRMs. Our approach achieves significant improvements across 5 models and 3 datasets: an average of 26.9% increase in correctness and 42.2% in efficiency. The results suggest that providing structured reasoning space with concrete verification signals is crucial for solving complex programming tasks. We open-source all our code and data at: https://github.com/zhuohaoyu/ORPS

Models trained with counterfactually augmented data learn representations of the causal structure of tasks, enabling robust generalization. However, high-quality counterfactual data is scarce for most tasks and not easily generated at scale. When crowdsourced, such data is typically limited in scale and diversity; when generated using supervised methods, it is computationally expensive to extend to new counterfactual dimensions. In this work, we introduce DISCO (DIStilled COunterfactual Data), a new method for automatically generating high quality counterfactual data at scale. DISCO engineers prompts to generate phrasal perturbations with a large general language model. Then, a task-specific teacher model filters these generations to distill high-quality counterfactual data. While task-agnostic, we apply our pipeline to the task of natural language inference (NLI) and find that on challenging evaluations such as the NLI stress test, comparatively smaller student models trained with DISCO generated counterfactuals are more robust (6% absolute) and generalize better across distributions (2%) compared to models trained without data augmentation. Furthermore, DISCO augmented models are 10% more consistent between counterfactual pairs on three evaluation sets, demonstrating that DISCO augmentation enables models to more reliably learn causal representations. Our repository is available at: https://github.com/eric11eca/disco

Chain-of-thought traces have been shown to improve performance of large language models in a plethora of reasoning tasks, yet there is no consensus on the mechanism through which this performance boost is achieved. To shed more light on this, we introduce Causal CoT Graphs (CCGs), which are directed acyclic graphs automatically extracted from reasoning traces that model fine-grained causal dependencies in the language model output. A collection of 1671 mathematical reasoning problems from MATH500, GSM8K and AIME, and their associated CCGs are compiled into our dataset -- KisMATH. Our detailed empirical analysis with 15 open-weight LLMs shows that (i) reasoning nodes in the CCG are mediators for the final answer, a condition necessary for reasoning; and (ii) LLMs emphasise reasoning paths given by the CCG, indicating that models internally realise structures akin to our graphs. KisMATH enables controlled, graph-aligned interventions and opens up avenues for further investigation into the role of chain-of-thought in LLM reasoning.

Agentic workflows -- where multiple large language model (LLM) instances interact to solve tasks -- are increasingly built on feedback mechanisms, where one model evaluates and critiques another. Despite the promise of feedback-driven improvement, the stability of agentic workflows rests on the reliability of the judge. However, judges may hallucinate information, exhibit bias, or act adversarially -- introducing critical vulnerabilities into the workflow. In this work, we present a systematic analysis of agentic workflows under deceptive or misleading feedback. We introduce a two-dimensional framework for analyzing judge behavior, along axes of intent (from constructive to malicious) and knowledge (from parametric-only to retrieval-augmented systems). Using this taxonomy, we construct a suite of judge behaviors and develop WAFER-QA, a new benchmark with critiques grounded in retrieved web evidence to evaluate robustness of agentic workflows against factually supported adversarial feedback. We reveal that even strongest agents are vulnerable to persuasive yet flawed critiques -- often switching correct answers after a single round of misleading feedback. Taking a step further, we study how model predictions evolve over multiple rounds of interaction, revealing distinct behavioral patterns between reasoning and non-reasoning models. Our findings highlight fundamental vulnerabilities in feedback-based workflows and offer guidance for building more robust agentic systems.

Previous studies have found that PLM-based retrieval models exhibit a preference for LLM-generated content, assigning higher relevance scores to these documents even when their semantic quality is comparable to human-written ones. This phenomenon, known as source bias, threatens the sustainable development of the information access ecosystem. However, the underlying causes of source bias remain unexplored. In this paper, we explain the process of information retrieval with a causal graph and discover that PLM-based retrievers learn perplexity features for relevance estimation, causing source bias by ranking the documents with low perplexity higher. Theoretical analysis further reveals that the phenomenon stems from the positive correlation between the gradients of the loss functions in language modeling task and retrieval task. Based on the analysis, a causal-inspired inference-time debiasing method is proposed, called Causal Diagnosis and Correction (CDC). CDC first diagnoses the bias effect of the perplexity and then separates the bias effect from the overall estimated relevance score. Experimental results across three domains demonstrate the superior debiasing effectiveness of CDC, emphasizing the validity of our proposed explanatory framework. Source codes are available at https://github.com/WhyDwelledOnAi/Perplexity-Trap.

Diffusion and flow matching models have significantly advanced media generation, yet their design space is well-explored, somewhat limiting further improvements. Concurrently, autoregressive (AR) models, particularly those generating continuous tokens, have emerged as a promising direction for unifying text and media generation. This paper introduces Transition Matching (TM), a novel discrete-time, continuous-state generative paradigm that unifies and advances both diffusion/flow models and continuous AR generation. TM decomposes complex generation tasks into simpler Markov transitions, allowing for expressive non-deterministic probability transition kernels and arbitrary non-continuous supervision processes, thereby unlocking new flexible design avenues. We explore these choices through three TM variants: (i) Difference Transition Matching (DTM), which generalizes flow matching to discrete-time by directly learning transition probabilities, yielding state-of-the-art image quality and text adherence as well as improved sampling efficiency. (ii) Autoregressive Transition Matching (ARTM) and (iii) Full History Transition Matching (FHTM) are partially and fully causal models, respectively, that generalize continuous AR methods. They achieve continuous causal AR generation quality comparable to non-causal approaches and potentially enable seamless integration with existing AR text generation techniques. Notably, FHTM is the first fully causal model to match or surpass the performance of flow-based methods on text-to-image task in continuous domains. We demonstrate these contributions through a rigorous large-scale comparison of TM variants and relevant baselines, maintaining a fixed architecture, training data, and hyperparameters.

We introduce Planning-guided Retrieval Augmented Generation (PlantimesRAG), a novel framework that augments the retrieve-then-reason paradigm of existing RAG frameworks to plan-then-retrieve. PlantimesRAG formulates a reasoning plan as a directed acyclic graph (DAG), decomposing queries into interrelated atomic sub-queries. Answer generation follows the DAG structure, allowing significant gains in efficiency through parallelized retrieval and generation. While state-of-the-art RAG solutions require extensive data generation and fine-tuning of language models (LMs), PlantimesRAG incorporates frozen LMs as plug-and-play experts to generate high-quality answers. Compared to existing RAG solutions, PlantimesRAG demonstrates significant improvements in reducing hallucinations and bolstering attribution due to its structured sub-query decomposition. Overall, PlantimesRAG offers a new perspective on integrating external knowledge in LMs while ensuring attribution by design, contributing towards more reliable LM-based systems.

Interventions on model-internal states are fundamental operations in many areas of AI, including model editing, steering, robustness, and interpretability. To facilitate such research, we introduce pyvene, an open-source Python library that supports customizable interventions on a range of different PyTorch modules. pyvene supports complex intervention schemes with an intuitive configuration format, and its interventions can be static or include trainable parameters. We show how pyvene provides a unified and extensible framework for performing interventions on neural models and sharing the intervened upon models with others. We illustrate the power of the library via interpretability analyses using causal abstraction and knowledge localization. We publish our library through Python Package Index (PyPI) and provide code, documentation, and tutorials at https://github.com/stanfordnlp/pyvene.

This study introduces Conversation Routines (CR), a structured prompt engineering framework for developing task-oriented dialog systems using Large Language Models (LLMs). While LLMs demonstrate remarkable natural language understanding capabilities, engineering them to reliably execute complex business workflows remains challenging. The proposed CR framework enables the development of Conversation Agentic Systems (CAS) through natural language specifications, embedding task-oriented logic within LLM prompts. This approach provides a systematic methodology for designing and implementing complex conversational workflows while maintaining behavioral consistency. We demonstrate the framework's effectiveness through two proof-of-concept implementations: a Train Ticket Booking System and an Interactive Troubleshooting Copilot. These case studies validate CR's capability to encode sophisticated behavioral patterns and decision logic while preserving natural conversational flexibility. Results show that CR enables domain experts to design conversational workflows in natural language while leveraging custom functions (tools) developed by software engineers, creating an efficient division of responsibilities where developers focus on core API implementation and domain experts handle conversation design. While the framework shows promise in accessibility and adaptability, we identify key challenges including computational overhead, non-deterministic behavior, and domain-specific logic optimization. Future research directions include CR evaluation methods based on prompt engineering frameworks driven by goal-oriented grading criteria, improving scalability for complex multi-agent interactions, and enhancing system robustness to address the identified limitations across diverse business applications.

The process mining community has recently recognized the potential of large language models (LLMs) for tackling various process mining tasks. Initial studies report the capability of LLMs to support process analysis and even, to some extent, that they are able to reason about how processes work. This latter property suggests that LLMs could also be used to tackle process mining tasks that benefit from an understanding of process behavior. Examples of such tasks include (semantic) anomaly detection and next activity prediction, which both involve considerations of the meaning of activities and their inter-relations. In this paper, we investigate the capabilities of LLMs to tackle such semantics-aware process mining tasks. Furthermore, whereas most works on the intersection of LLMs and process mining only focus on testing these models out of the box, we provide a more principled investigation of the utility of LLMs for process mining, including their ability to obtain process mining knowledge post-hoc by means of in-context learning and supervised fine-tuning. Concretely, we define three process mining tasks that benefit from an understanding of process semantics and provide extensive benchmarking datasets for each of them. Our evaluation experiments reveal that (1) LLMs fail to solve challenging process mining tasks out of the box and when provided only a handful of in-context examples, (2) but they yield strong performance when fine-tuned for these tasks, consistently surpassing smaller, encoder-based language models.

Despite remarkable advances in the field, LLMs remain unreliable in distinguishing causation from correlation. Recent results from the Corr2Cause dataset benchmark reveal that state-of-the-art LLMs -- such as GPT-4 (F1 score: 29.08) -- only marginally outperform random baselines (Random Uniform, F1 score: 20.38), indicating limited capacity of generalization. To tackle this limitation, we propose a novel structured approach: rather than directly answering causal queries, we provide the model with the capability to structure its thinking by guiding the model to build a structured knowledge graph, systematically encoding the provided correlational premises, to answer the causal queries. This intermediate representation significantly enhances the model's causal capabilities. Experiments on the test subset of the Corr2Cause dataset benchmark with Qwen3-32B model (reasoning model) show substantial gains over standard direct prompting methods, improving F1 scores from 32.71 to 48.26 (over 47.5% relative increase), along with notable improvements in precision and recall. These results underscore the effectiveness of providing the model with the capability to structure its thinking and highlight its promising potential for broader generalization across diverse causal inference tasks.

Extracting causal relationships from observed correlations is a growing area in probabilistic reasoning, originating with the seminal work of Pearl and others from the early 1990s. This paper develops a new, categorically oriented view based on a clear distinction between syntax (string diagrams) and semantics (stochastic matrices), connected via interpretations as structure-preserving functors. A key notion in the identification of causal effects is that of an intervention, whereby a variable is forcefully set to a particular value independent of any prior propensities. We represent the effect of such an intervention as an endofunctor which performs `string diagram surgery' within the syntactic category of string diagrams. This diagram surgery in turn yields a new, interventional distribution via the interpretation functor. While in general there is no way to compute interventional distributions purely from observed data, we show that this is possible in certain special cases using a calculational tool called comb disintegration. We demonstrate the use of this technique on a well-known toy example, where we predict the causal effect of smoking on cancer in the presence of a confounding common cause. After developing this specific example, we show this technique provides simple sufficient conditions for computing interventions which apply to a wide variety of situations considered in the causal inference literature.

Faithful evaluation of language model capabilities is crucial for deriving actionable insights that can inform model development. However, rigorous causal evaluations in this domain face significant methodological challenges, including complex confounding effects and prohibitive computational costs associated with extensive retraining. To tackle these challenges, we propose a causal representation learning framework wherein observed benchmark performance is modeled as a linear transformation of a few latent capability factors. Crucially, these latent factors are identified as causally interrelated after appropriately controlling for the base model as a common confounder. Applying this approach to a comprehensive dataset encompassing over 1500 models evaluated across six benchmarks from the Open LLM Leaderboard, we identify a concise three-node linear causal structure that reliably explains the observed performance variations. Further interpretation of this causal structure provides substantial scientific insights beyond simple numerical rankings: specifically, we reveal a clear causal direction starting from general problem-solving capabilities, advancing through instruction-following proficiency, and culminating in mathematical reasoning ability. Our results underscore the essential role of carefully controlling base model variations during evaluation, a step critical to accurately uncovering the underlying causal relationships among latent model capabilities.

We study counterfactual identifiability in causal models with bijective generation mechanisms (BGM), a class that generalizes several widely-used causal models in the literature. We establish their counterfactual identifiability for three common causal structures with unobserved confounding, and propose a practical learning method that casts learning a BGM as structured generative modeling. Learned BGMs enable efficient counterfactual estimation and can be obtained using a variety of deep conditional generative models. We evaluate our techniques in a visual task and demonstrate its application in a real-world video streaming simulation task.

We explore algorithms to select actions in the causal bandit setting where the learner can choose to intervene on a set of random variables related by a causal graph, and the learner sequentially chooses interventions and observes a sample from the interventional distribution. The learner's goal is to quickly find the intervention, among all interventions on observable variables, that maximizes the expectation of an outcome variable. We depart from previous literature by assuming no knowledge of the causal graph except that latent confounders between the outcome and its ancestors are not present. We first show that the unknown graph problem can be exponentially hard in the parents of the outcome. To remedy this, we adopt an additional additive assumption on the outcome which allows us to solve the problem by casting it as an additive combinatorial linear bandit problem with full-bandit feedback. We propose a novel action-elimination algorithm for this setting, show how to apply this algorithm to the causal bandit problem, provide sample complexity bounds, and empirically validate our findings on a suite of randomly generated causal models, effectively showing that one does not need to explicitly learn the parents of the outcome to identify the best intervention.

Agentic Software Engineering (SE 3.0) represents a new era where intelligent agents are tasked not with simple code generation, but with achieving complex, goal-oriented SE objectives. To harness these new capabilities while ensuring trustworthiness, we must recognize a fundamental duality within the SE field in the Agentic SE era, comprising two symbiotic modalities: SE for Humans and SE for Agents. This duality demands a radical reimagining of the foundational pillars of SE (actors, processes, tools, and artifacts) which manifest differently across each modality. We propose two purpose-built workbenches to support this vision. The Agent Command Environment (ACE) serves as a command center where humans orchestrate and mentor agent teams, handling outputs such as Merge-Readiness Packs (MRPs) and Consultation Request Packs (CRPs). The Agent Execution Environment (AEE) is a digital workspace where agents perform tasks while invoking human expertise when facing ambiguity or complex trade-offs. This bi-directional partnership, which supports agent-initiated human callbacks and handovers, gives rise to new, structured engineering activities (i.e., processes) that redefine human-AI collaboration, elevating the practice from agentic coding to true agentic software engineering. This paper presents the Structured Agentic Software Engineering (SASE) vision, outlining several of the foundational pillars for the future of SE. The paper culminates in a research roadmap that identifies a few key challenges and opportunities while briefly discussing the resulting impact of this future on SE education. Our goal is not to offer a definitive solution, but to provide a conceptual scaffold with structured vocabulary to catalyze a community-wide dialogue, pushing the SE community to think beyond its classic, human-centric tenets toward a disciplined, scalable, and trustworthy agentic future.

While state-of-the-art NLP models have been achieving the excellent performance of a wide range of tasks in recent years, important questions are being raised about their robustness and their underlying sensitivity to systematic biases that may exist in their training and test data. Such issues come to be manifest in performance problems when faced with out-of-distribution data in the field. One recent solution has been to use counterfactually augmented datasets in order to reduce any reliance on spurious patterns that may exist in the original data. Producing high-quality augmented data can be costly and time-consuming as it usually needs to involve human feedback and crowdsourcing efforts. In this work, we propose an alternative by describing and evaluating an approach to automatically generating counterfactual data for data augmentation and explanation. A comprehensive evaluation on several different datasets and using a variety of state-of-the-art benchmarks demonstrate how our approach can achieve significant improvements in model performance when compared to models training on the original data and even when compared to models trained with the benefit of human-generated augmented data.

Recent work on neural algorithmic reasoning has investigated the reasoning capabilities of neural networks, effectively demonstrating they can learn to execute classical algorithms on unseen data coming from the train distribution. However, the performance of existing neural reasoners significantly degrades on out-of-distribution (OOD) test data, where inputs have larger sizes. In this work, we make an important observation: there are many different inputs for which an algorithm will perform certain intermediate computations identically. This insight allows us to develop data augmentation procedures that, given an algorithm's intermediate trajectory, produce inputs for which the target algorithm would have exactly the same next trajectory step. Then, we employ a causal framework to design a corresponding self-supervised objective, and we prove that it improves the OOD generalisation capabilities of the reasoner. We evaluate our method on the CLRS algorithmic reasoning benchmark, where we show up to 3times improvements on the OOD test data.

One well motivated explanation method for classifiers leverages counterfactuals which are hypothetical events identical to real observations in all aspects except for one categorical feature. Constructing such counterfactual poses specific challenges for texts, however, as some attribute values may not necessarily align with plausible real-world events. In this paper we propose a simple method for generating counterfactuals by intervening in the space of text representations which bypasses this limitation. We argue that our interventions are minimally disruptive and that they are theoretically sound as they align with counterfactuals as defined in Pearl's causal inference framework. To validate our method, we first conduct experiments on a synthetic dataset of counterfactuals, allowing for a direct comparison between classifier predictions based on ground truth counterfactuals (obtained through explicit text interventions) and our counterfactuals, derived through interventions in the representation space. Second, we study a real world scenario where our counterfactuals can be leveraged both for explaining a classifier and for bias mitigation.

The rapidly evolving field of Robotic Process Automation (RPA) has made significant strides in automating repetitive processes, yet its effectiveness diminishes in scenarios requiring spontaneous or unpredictable tasks demanded by users. This paper introduces a novel approach, FlowMind, leveraging the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) such as Generative Pretrained Transformer (GPT), to address this limitation and create an automatic workflow generation system. In FlowMind, we propose a generic prompt recipe for a lecture that helps ground LLM reasoning with reliable Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). With this, FlowMind not only mitigates the common issue of hallucinations in LLMs, but also eliminates direct interaction between LLMs and proprietary data or code, thus ensuring the integrity and confidentiality of information - a cornerstone in financial services. FlowMind further simplifies user interaction by presenting high-level descriptions of auto-generated workflows, enabling users to inspect and provide feedback effectively. We also introduce NCEN-QA, a new dataset in finance for benchmarking question-answering tasks from N-CEN reports on funds. We used NCEN-QA to evaluate the performance of workflows generated by FlowMind against baseline and ablation variants of FlowMind. We demonstrate the success of FlowMind, the importance of each component in the proposed lecture recipe, and the effectiveness of user interaction and feedback in FlowMind.

Large language models are being widely used across industries to generate content that contributes directly to key performance metrics, such as conversion rates. Pretrained models, however, often fall short when it comes to aligning with human preferences or optimizing for business objectives. As a result, fine-tuning with good-quality labeled data is essential to guide models to generate content that achieves better results. Controlled experiments, like A/B tests, can provide such data, but they are often expensive and come with significant engineering and logistical challenges. Meanwhile, companies have access to a vast amount of historical (observational) data that remains underutilized. In this work, we study the challenges and opportunities of fine-tuning LLMs using observational data. We show that while observational outcomes can provide valuable supervision, directly fine-tuning models on such data can lead them to learn spurious correlations. We present empirical evidence of this issue using various real-world datasets and propose DeconfoundLM, a method that explicitly removes the effect of known confounders from reward signals. Using simulation experiments, we demonstrate that DeconfoundLM improves the recovery of causal relationships and mitigates failure modes found in fine-tuning methods that ignore or naively incorporate confounding variables. Our findings highlight that while observational data presents risks, with the right causal corrections, it can be a powerful source of signal for LLM alignment. Please refer to the project page for code and related resources.

Critical peer review of scientific manuscripts presents a significant challenge for Large Language Models (LLMs), partly due to data limitations and the complexity of expert reasoning. This report introduces Persistent Workflow Prompting (PWP), a potentially broadly applicable prompt engineering methodology designed to bridge this gap using standard LLM chat interfaces (zero-code, no APIs). We present a proof-of-concept PWP prompt for the critical analysis of experimental chemistry manuscripts, featuring a hierarchical, modular architecture (structured via Markdown) that defines detailed analysis workflows. We develop this PWP prompt through iterative application of meta-prompting techniques and meta-reasoning aimed at systematically codifying expert review workflows, including tacit knowledge. Submitted once at the start of a session, this PWP prompt equips the LLM with persistent workflows triggered by subsequent queries, guiding modern reasoning LLMs through systematic, multimodal evaluations. Demonstrations show the PWP-guided LLM identifying major methodological flaws in a test case while mitigating LLM input bias and performing complex tasks, including distinguishing claims from evidence, integrating text/photo/figure analysis to infer parameters, executing quantitative feasibility checks, comparing estimates against claims, and assessing a priori plausibility. To ensure transparency and facilitate replication, we provide full prompts, detailed demonstration analyses, and logs of interactive chats as supplementary resources. Beyond the specific application, this work offers insights into the meta-development process itself, highlighting the potential of PWP, informed by detailed workflow formalization, to enable sophisticated analysis using readily available LLMs for complex scientific tasks.

We develop a method for generating causal post-hoc explanations of black-box classifiers based on a learned low-dimensional representation of the data. The explanation is causal in the sense that changing learned latent factors produces a change in the classifier output statistics. To construct these explanations, we design a learning framework that leverages a generative model and information-theoretic measures of causal influence. Our objective function encourages both the generative model to faithfully represent the data distribution and the latent factors to have a large causal influence on the classifier output. Our method learns both global and local explanations, is compatible with any classifier that admits class probabilities and a gradient, and does not require labeled attributes or knowledge of causal structure. Using carefully controlled test cases, we provide intuition that illuminates the function of our objective. We then demonstrate the practical utility of our method on image recognition tasks.

We introduce Causal Diffusion as the autoregressive (AR) counterpart of Diffusion models. It is a next-token(s) forecasting framework that is friendly to both discrete and continuous modalities and compatible with existing next-token prediction models like LLaMA and GPT. While recent works attempt to combine diffusion with AR models, we show that introducing sequential factorization to a diffusion model can substantially improve its performance and enables a smooth transition between AR and diffusion generation modes. Hence, we propose CausalFusion - a decoder-only transformer that dual-factorizes data across sequential tokens and diffusion noise levels, leading to state-of-the-art results on the ImageNet generation benchmark while also enjoying the AR advantage of generating an arbitrary number of tokens for in-context reasoning. We further demonstrate CausalFusion's multimodal capabilities through a joint image generation and captioning model, and showcase CausalFusion's ability for zero-shot in-context image manipulations. We hope that this work could provide the community with a fresh perspective on training multimodal models over discrete and continuous data.

Visual environments are structured, consisting of distinct objects or entities. These entities have properties -- both visible and latent -- that determine the manner in which they interact with one another. To partition images into entities, deep-learning researchers have proposed structural inductive biases such as slot-based architectures. To model interactions among entities, equivariant graph neural nets (GNNs) are used, but these are not particularly well suited to the task for two reasons. First, GNNs do not predispose interactions to be sparse, as relationships among independent entities are likely to be. Second, GNNs do not factorize knowledge about interactions in an entity-conditional manner. As an alternative, we take inspiration from cognitive science and resurrect a classic approach, production systems, which consist of a set of rule templates that are applied by binding placeholder variables in the rules to specific entities. Rules are scored on their match to entities, and the best fitting rules are applied to update entity properties. In a series of experiments, we demonstrate that this architecture achieves a flexible, dynamic flow of control and serves to factorize entity-specific and rule-based information. This disentangling of knowledge achieves robust future-state prediction in rich visual environments, outperforming state-of-the-art methods using GNNs, and allows for the extrapolation from simple (few object) environments to more complex environments.

We propose a method to control the attributes of Language Models (LMs) for the text generation task using Causal Average Treatment Effect (ATE) scores and counterfactual augmentation. We explore this method, in the context of LM detoxification, and propose the Causally Fair Language (CFL) architecture for detoxifying pre-trained LMs in a plug-and-play manner. Our architecture is based on a Structural Causal Model (SCM) that is mathematically transparent and computationally efficient as compared with many existing detoxification techniques. We also propose several new metrics that aim to better understand the behaviour of LMs in the context of toxic text generation. Further, we achieve state of the art performance for toxic degeneration, which are computed using \RTP (RTP) benchmark. Our experiments show that CFL achieves such a detoxification without much impact on the model perplexity. We also show that CFL mitigates the unintended bias problem through experiments on the BOLD dataset.

Despite recent advances in video understanding, the capabilities of Large Video Language Models (LVLMs) to perform video-based causal reasoning remains underexplored, largely due to the absence of relevant and dedicated benchmarks for evaluating causal reasoning in visually grounded and goal-driven settings. To fill this gap, we introduce a novel benchmark named Video-based long-form Causal Reasoning (VCRBench). We create VCRBench using procedural videos of simple everyday activities, where the steps are deliberately shuffled with each clip capturing a key causal event, to test whether LVLMs can identify, reason about, and correctly sequence the events needed to accomplish a specific goal. Moreover, the benchmark is carefully designed to prevent LVLMs from exploiting linguistic shortcuts, as seen in multiple-choice or binary QA formats, while also avoiding the challenges associated with evaluating open-ended QA. Our evaluation of state-of-the-art LVLMs on VCRBench suggests that these models struggle with video-based long-form causal reasoning, primarily due to their difficulty in modeling long-range causal dependencies directly from visual observations. As a simple step toward enabling such capabilities, we propose Recognition-Reasoning Decomposition (RRD), a modular approach that breaks video-based causal reasoning into two sub-tasks of video recognition and causal reasoning. Our experiments on VCRBench show that RRD significantly boosts accuracy on VCRBench, with gains of up to 25.2%. Finally, our thorough analysis reveals interesting insights, for instance, that LVLMs primarily rely on language knowledge for complex video-based long-form causal reasoning tasks.

Large language models have shown promise in clinical decision making, but current approaches struggle to localize and correct errors at specific steps of the reasoning process. This limitation is critical in medicine, where identifying and addressing reasoning errors is essential for accurate diagnosis and effective patient care. We introduce Med-PRM, a process reward modeling framework that leverages retrieval-augmented generation to verify each reasoning step against established medical knowledge bases. By verifying intermediate reasoning steps with evidence retrieved from clinical guidelines and literature, our model can precisely assess the reasoning quality in a fine-grained manner. Evaluations on five medical QA benchmarks and two open-ended diagnostic tasks demonstrate that Med-PRM achieves state-of-the-art performance, with improving the performance of base models by up to 13.50% using Med-PRM. Moreover, we demonstrate the generality of Med-PRM by integrating it in a plug-and-play fashion with strong policy models such as Meerkat, achieving over 80\% accuracy on MedQA for the first time using small-scale models of 8 billion parameters. Our code and data are available at: https://med-prm.github.io/

AI technologies are moving rapidly from research to production. With the popularity of Foundation Models (FMs) that generate text, images, and video, AI-based systems are increasing their complexity. Compared to traditional AI-based software, systems employing FMs, or GenAI-based systems, are more difficult to design due to their scale and versatility. This makes it necessary to document best practices, known as design patterns in software engineering, that can be used across GenAI applications. Our first contribution is to formalize two techniques, Task Decomposition and Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG), as design patterns for GenAI-based systems. We discuss their trade-offs in terms of software quality attributes and comment on alternative approaches. We recommend to AI practitioners to consider these techniques not only from a scientific perspective but also from the standpoint of desired engineering properties such as flexibility, maintainability, safety, and security. As a second contribution, we describe our industry experience applying Task Decomposition and RAG to build a complex real-world GenAI application for enterprise users: Workflow Generation. The task of generating workflows entails generating a specific plan using data from the system environment, taking as input a user requirement. As these two patterns affect the entire AI development cycle, we explain how they impacted the dataset creation, model training, model evaluation, and deployment phases.

Although contemporary large language models (LMs) demonstrate impressive question-answering capabilities, their answers are typically the product of a single call to the model. This entails an unwelcome degree of opacity and compromises performance, especially on problems that are inherently multi-step. To address these limitations, we show how LMs can be made to perform faithful multi-step reasoning via a process whose causal structure mirrors the underlying logical structure of the problem. Our approach works by chaining together reasoning steps, where each step results from calls to two fine-tuned LMs, one for selection and one for inference, to produce a valid reasoning trace. Our method carries out a beam search through the space of reasoning traces to improve reasoning quality. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our model on multi-step logical deduction and scientific question-answering, showing that it outperforms baselines on final answer accuracy, and generates humanly interpretable reasoning traces whose validity can be checked by the user.

Building future wireless systems that support services like digital twins (DTs) is challenging to achieve through advances to conventional technologies like meta-surfaces. While artificial intelligence (AI)-native networks promise to overcome some limitations of wireless technologies, developments still rely on AI tools like neural networks. Such tools struggle to cope with the non-trivial challenges of the network environment and the growing demands of emerging use cases. In this paper, we revisit the concept of AI-native wireless systems, equipping them with the common sense necessary to transform them into artificial general intelligence (AGI)-native systems. These systems acquire common sense by exploiting different cognitive abilities such as perception, analogy, and reasoning, that enable them to generalize and deal with unforeseen scenarios. Towards developing the components of such a system, we start by showing how the perception module can be built through abstracting real-world elements into generalizable representations. These representations are then used to create a world model, founded on principles of causality and hyper-dimensional (HD) computing, that aligns with intuitive physics and enables analogical reasoning, that define common sense. Then, we explain how methods such as integrated information theory play a role in the proposed intent-driven and objective-driven planning methods that maneuver the AGI-native network to take actions. Next, we discuss how an AGI-native network can enable use cases related to human and autonomous agents: a) analogical reasoning for next-generation DTs, b) synchronized and resilient experiences for cognitive avatars, and c) brain-level metaverse experiences like holographic teleportation. Finally, we conclude with a set of recommendations to build AGI-native systems. Ultimately, we envision this paper as a roadmap for the beyond 6G era.

In the era of large language models (LLMs), a vast amount of conversation logs will be accumulated thanks to the rapid development trend of language UI. Conversation Analysis (CA) strives to uncover and analyze critical information from conversation data, streamlining manual processes and supporting business insights and decision-making. The need for CA to extract actionable insights and drive empowerment is becoming increasingly prominent and attracting widespread attention. However, the lack of a clear scope for CA leads to a dispersion of various techniques, making it difficult to form a systematic technical synergy to empower business applications. In this paper, we perform a thorough review and systematize CA task to summarize the existing related work. Specifically, we formally define CA task to confront the fragmented and chaotic landscape in this field, and derive four key steps of CA from conversation scene reconstruction, to in-depth attribution analysis, and then to performing targeted training, finally generating conversations based on the targeted training for achieving the specific goals. In addition, we showcase the relevant benchmarks, discuss potential challenges and point out future directions in both industry and academia. In view of current advancements, it is evident that the majority of efforts are still concentrated on the analysis of shallow conversation elements, which presents a considerable gap between the research and business, and with the assist of LLMs, recent work has shown a trend towards research on causality and strategic tasks which are sophisticated and high-level. The analyzed experiences and insights will inevitably have broader application value in business operations that target conversation logs.

Citation count of a paper is a commonly used proxy for evaluating the significance of a paper in the scientific community. Yet citation measures are widely criticized for failing to accurately reflect the true impact of a paper. Thus, we propose CausalCite, a new way to measure the significance of a paper by assessing the causal impact of the paper on its follow-up papers. CausalCite is based on a novel causal inference method, TextMatch, which adapts the traditional matching framework to high-dimensional text embeddings. TextMatch encodes each paper using text embeddings from large language models (LLMs), extracts similar samples by cosine similarity, and synthesizes a counterfactual sample as the weighted average of similar papers according to their similarity values. We demonstrate the effectiveness of CausalCite on various criteria, such as high correlation with paper impact as reported by scientific experts on a previous dataset of 1K papers, (test-of-time) awards for past papers, and its stability across various subfields of AI. We also provide a set of findings that can serve as suggested ways for future researchers to use our metric for a better understanding of the quality of a paper. Our code is available at https://github.com/causalNLP/causal-cite.

Fair machine learning seeks to identify and mitigate biases in predictions against unfavorable populations characterized by demographic attributes, such as race and gender. Recently, a few works have extended fairness to graph data, such as social networks, but most of them neglect the causal relationships among data instances. This paper addresses the prevalent challenge in fairness-aware ML algorithms, which typically assume Independent and Identically Distributed (IID) data. We tackle the overlooked domain of non-IID, graph-based settings where data instances are interconnected, influencing the outcomes of fairness interventions. We base our research on the Network Structural Causal Model (NSCM) framework and posit two main assumptions: Decomposability and Graph Independence, which enable the computation of interventional distributions in non-IID settings using the do-calculus. Based on that, we develop the Message Passing Variational Autoencoder for Causal Inference (MPVA) to compute interventional distributions and facilitate causally fair node classification through estimated interventional distributions. Empirical evaluations on semi-synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that MPVA outperforms conventional methods by effectively approximating interventional distributions and mitigating bias. The implications of our findings underscore the potential of causality-based fairness in complex ML applications, setting the stage for further research into relaxing the initial assumptions to enhance model fairness.

Deep models have demonstrated remarkable performance in time series forecasting. However, due to the partially-observed nature of real-world applications, solely focusing on the target of interest, so-called endogenous variables, is usually insufficient to guarantee accurate forecasting. Notably, a system is often recorded into multiple variables, where the exogenous variables can provide valuable external information for endogenous variables. Thus, unlike well-established multivariate or univariate forecasting paradigms that either treat all the variables equally or ignore exogenous information, this paper focuses on a more practical setting: time series forecasting with exogenous variables. We propose a novel approach, TimeXer, to ingest external information to enhance the forecasting of endogenous variables. With deftly designed embedding layers, TimeXer empowers the canonical Transformer with the ability to reconcile endogenous and exogenous information, where patch-wise self-attention and variate-wise cross-attention are used simultaneously. Moreover, global endogenous tokens are learned to effectively bridge the causal information underlying exogenous series into endogenous temporal patches. Experimentally, TimeXer achieves consistent state-of-the-art performance on twelve real-world forecasting benchmarks and exhibits notable generality and scalability. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/TimeXer.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) have recently shown promise in solving complex math problems when optimized with Reinforcement Learning (RL). But conventional approaches rely on outcome-only rewards that provide sparse feedback, resulting in inefficient optimization process. In this work, we investigate the function of process reward models (PRMs) to accelerate the RL training for LRMs. We propose a novel intrinsic signal-driven generative process evaluation mechanism operating at the thought level to address major bottlenecks in RL-based training. Specifically, instead of requiring PRMs to know how to solve problems, our method uses intrinsic signals in solutions to judge stepwise correctness and aggregate contiguous correct/incorrect steps into coherent 'thought' units. This structured, thought-level rewards enable more reliable credit assignment by reducing ambiguity in step segmentation and alleviating reward hacking. We further introduce a capability-adaptive reward mechanism that dynamically balances exploration and exploitation based on the LRM's current proficiency, guiding learning without stifling creative trial-and-error. These innovations are integrated into a new off-policy RL algorithm, TP-GRPO, which extends grouped proximal optimization with process-based rewards and improves training efficiency. Experiments on 1.5B and 7B parameter LRMs demonstrate that our method achieves higher problem-solving accuracy with significantly fewer training samples than outcome-only reward baselines. The results validate that well-structured process rewards can substantially accelerate LRM optimization in math reasoning tasks. Code is available at https://github.com/cs-holder/tp_grpo.

Much previous AI research has focused on developing monolithic models to maximize their intelligence and capability, with the primary goal of enhancing performance on specific tasks. In contrast, this paper explores an alternative approach: collaborative AI systems that use workflows to integrate models, data sources, and pipelines to solve complex and diverse tasks. We introduce GenAgent, an LLM-based framework that automatically generates complex workflows, offering greater flexibility and scalability compared to monolithic models. The core innovation of GenAgent lies in representing workflows with code, alongside constructing workflows with collaborative agents in a step-by-step manner. We implement GenAgent on the ComfyUI platform and propose a new benchmark, OpenComfy. The results demonstrate that GenAgent outperforms baseline approaches in both run-level and task-level evaluations, showing its capability to generate complex workflows with superior effectiveness and stability.

Conventional supervised learning methods typically assume i.i.d samples and are found to be sensitive to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. We propose Generative Causal Representation Learning (GCRL) which leverages causality to facilitate knowledge transfer under distribution shifts. While we evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed method in human trajectory prediction models, GCRL can be applied to other domains as well. First, we propose a novel causal model that explains the generative factors in motion forecasting datasets using features that are common across all environments and with features that are specific to each environment. Selection variables are used to determine which parts of the model can be directly transferred to a new environment without fine-tuning. Second, we propose an end-to-end variational learning paradigm to learn the causal mechanisms that generate observations from features. GCRL is supported by strong theoretical results that imply identifiability of the causal model under certain assumptions. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world motion forecasting datasets show the robustness and effectiveness of our proposed method for knowledge transfer under zero-shot and low-shot settings by substantially outperforming the prior motion forecasting models on out-of-distribution prediction. Our code is available at https://github.com/sshirahmad/GCRL.