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Oct 28

Interpretable structural model error discovery from sparse assimilation increments using spectral bias-reduced neural networks: A quasi-geostrophic turbulence test case

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 22, 2023

Fuxi-DA: A Generalized Deep Learning Data Assimilation Framework for Assimilating Satellite Observations

Data assimilation (DA), as an indispensable component within contemporary Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems, plays a crucial role in generating the analysis that significantly impacts forecast performance. Nevertheless, the development of an efficient DA system poses significant challenges, particularly in establishing intricate relationships between the background data and the vast amount of multi-source observation data within limited time windows in operational settings. To address these challenges, researchers design complex pre-processing methods for each observation type, leveraging approximate modeling and the power of super-computing clusters to expedite solutions. The emergence of deep learning (DL) models has been a game-changer, offering unified multi-modal modeling, enhanced nonlinear representation capabilities, and superior parallelization. These advantages have spurred efforts to integrate DL models into various domains of weather modeling. Remarkably, DL models have shown promise in matching, even surpassing, the forecast accuracy of leading operational NWP models worldwide. This success motivates the exploration of DL-based DA frameworks tailored for weather forecasting models. In this study, we introduces FuxiDA, a generalized DL-based DA framework for assimilating satellite observations. By assimilating data from Advanced Geosynchronous Radiation Imager (AGRI) aboard Fengyun-4B, FuXi-DA consistently mitigates analysis errors and significantly improves forecast performance. Furthermore, through a series of single-observation experiments, Fuxi-DA has been validated against established atmospheric physics, demonstrating its consistency and reliability.

  • 6 authors
·
Apr 12, 2024

Unintentional Unalignment: Likelihood Displacement in Direct Preference Optimization

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) and its variants are increasingly used for aligning language models with human preferences. Although these methods are designed to teach a model to generate preferred responses more frequently relative to dispreferred responses, prior work has observed that the likelihood of preferred responses often decreases during training. The current work sheds light on the causes and implications of this counter-intuitive phenomenon, which we term likelihood displacement. We demonstrate that likelihood displacement can be catastrophic, shifting probability mass from preferred responses to responses with an opposite meaning. As a simple example, training a model to prefer No over Never can sharply increase the probability of Yes. Moreover, when aligning the model to refuse unsafe prompts, we show that such displacement can unintentionally lead to unalignment, by shifting probability mass from preferred refusal responses to harmful responses (e.g., reducing the refusal rate of Llama-3-8B-Instruct from 74.4% to 33.4%). We theoretically characterize that likelihood displacement is driven by preferences that induce similar embeddings, as measured by a centered hidden embedding similarity (CHES) score. Empirically, the CHES score enables identifying which training samples contribute most to likelihood displacement in a given dataset. Filtering out these samples effectively mitigated unintentional unalignment in our experiments. More broadly, our results highlight the importance of curating data with sufficiently distinct preferences, for which we believe the CHES score may prove valuable.

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 11, 2024

Discovery of interpretable structural model errors by combining Bayesian sparse regression and data assimilation: A chaotic Kuramoto-Sivashinsky test case

Models of many engineering and natural systems are imperfect. The discrepancy between the mathematical representations of a true physical system and its imperfect model is called the model error. These model errors can lead to substantial differences between the numerical solutions of the model and the state of the system, particularly in those involving nonlinear, multi-scale phenomena. Thus, there is increasing interest in reducing model errors, particularly by leveraging the rapidly growing observational data to understand their physics and sources. Here, we introduce a framework named MEDIDA: Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation. MEDIDA only requires a working numerical solver of the model and a small number of noise-free or noisy sporadic observations of the system. In MEDIDA, first the model error is estimated from differences between the observed states and model-predicted states (the latter are obtained from a number of one-time-step numerical integrations from the previous observed states). If observations are noisy, a data assimilation (DA) technique such as ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is employed to provide the analysis state of the system, which is then used to estimate the model error. Finally, an equation-discovery technique, here the relevance vector machine (RVM), a sparsity-promoting Bayesian method, is used to identify an interpretable, parsimonious, and closed-form representation of the model error. Using the chaotic Kuramoto-Sivashinsky (KS) system as the test case, we demonstrate the excellent performance of MEDIDA in discovering different types of structural/parametric model errors, representing different types of missing physics, using noise-free and noisy observations.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 1, 2021

Cultural evolution in populations of Large Language Models

Research in cultural evolution aims at providing causal explanations for the change of culture over time. Over the past decades, this field has generated an important body of knowledge, using experimental, historical, and computational methods. While computational models have been very successful at generating testable hypotheses about the effects of several factors, such as population structure or transmission biases, some phenomena have so far been more complex to capture using agent-based and formal models. This is in particular the case for the effect of the transformations of social information induced by evolved cognitive mechanisms. We here propose that leveraging the capacity of Large Language Models (LLMs) to mimic human behavior may be fruitful to address this gap. On top of being an useful approximation of human cultural dynamics, multi-agents models featuring generative agents are also important to study for their own sake. Indeed, as artificial agents are bound to participate more and more to the evolution of culture, it is crucial to better understand the dynamics of machine-generated cultural evolution. We here present a framework for simulating cultural evolution in populations of LLMs, allowing the manipulation of variables known to be important in cultural evolution, such as network structure, personality, and the way social information is aggregated and transformed. The software we developed for conducting these simulations is open-source and features an intuitive user-interface, which we hope will help to build bridges between the fields of cultural evolution and generative artificial intelligence.

  • 7 authors
·
Mar 13, 2024

Incorporating brain-inspired mechanisms for multimodal learning in artificial intelligence

Multimodal learning enhances the perceptual capabilities of cognitive systems by integrating information from different sensory modalities. However, existing multimodal fusion research typically assumes static integration, not fully incorporating key dynamic mechanisms found in the brain. Specifically, the brain exhibits an inverse effectiveness phenomenon, wherein weaker unimodal cues yield stronger multisensory integration benefits; conversely, when individual modal cues are stronger, the effect of fusion is diminished. This mechanism enables biological systems to achieve robust cognition even with scarce or noisy perceptual cues. Inspired by this biological mechanism, we explore the relationship between multimodal output and information from individual modalities, proposing an inverse effectiveness driven multimodal fusion (IEMF) strategy. By incorporating this strategy into neural networks, we achieve more efficient integration with improved model performance and computational efficiency, demonstrating up to 50% reduction in computational cost across diverse fusion methods. We conduct experiments on audio-visual classification, continual learning, and question answering tasks to validate our method. Results consistently demonstrate that our method performs excellently in these tasks. To verify universality and generalization, we also conduct experiments on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Spiking Neural Networks (SNN), with results showing good adaptability to both network types. Our research emphasizes the potential of incorporating biologically inspired mechanisms into multimodal networks and provides promising directions for the future development of multimodal artificial intelligence. The code is available at https://github.com/Brain-Cog-Lab/IEMF.

  • 6 authors
·
May 15 2

EDICT: Exact Diffusion Inversion via Coupled Transformations

Finding an initial noise vector that produces an input image when fed into the diffusion process (known as inversion) is an important problem in denoising diffusion models (DDMs), with applications for real image editing. The state-of-the-art approach for real image editing with inversion uses denoising diffusion implicit models (DDIMs) to deterministically noise the image to the intermediate state along the path that the denoising would follow given the original conditioning. However, DDIM inversion for real images is unstable as it relies on local linearization assumptions, which result in the propagation of errors, leading to incorrect image reconstruction and loss of content. To alleviate these problems, we propose Exact Diffusion Inversion via Coupled Transformations (EDICT), an inversion method that draws inspiration from affine coupling layers. EDICT enables mathematically exact inversion of real and model-generated images by maintaining two coupled noise vectors which are used to invert each other in an alternating fashion. Using Stable Diffusion, a state-of-the-art latent diffusion model, we demonstrate that EDICT successfully reconstructs real images with high fidelity. On complex image datasets like MS-COCO, EDICT reconstruction significantly outperforms DDIM, improving the mean square error of reconstruction by a factor of two. Using noise vectors inverted from real images, EDICT enables a wide range of image edits--from local and global semantic edits to image stylization--while maintaining fidelity to the original image structure. EDICT requires no model training/finetuning, prompt tuning, or extra data and can be combined with any pretrained DDM. Code is available at https://github.com/salesforce/EDICT.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 22, 2022

Crossing the Linguistic Causeway: Ethnonational Differences on Soundscape Attributes in Bahasa Melayu

Despite being neighbouring countries and sharing the language of Bahasa Melayu (ISO 639-3:ZSM), cultural and language education policy differences between Singapore and Malaysia led to differences in the translation of the "annoying" perceived affective quality (PAQ) attribute from English (ISO 639-3:ENG) to ZSM. This study expands upon the translation of the PAQ attributes from eng to ZSM in Stage 1 of the Soundscapes Attributes Translation Project (SATP) initiative, and presents the findings of Stage 2 listening tests that investigated ethnonational differences in the translated ZSM PAQ attributes and explored their circumplexity. A cross-cultural listening test was conducted with 100 ZSM speakers from Malaysia and Singapore using the common SATP protocol. The analysis revealed that Malaysian participants from non-native ethnicities (my:o) showed PAQ perceptions more similar to Singapore (sg) participants than native ethnic Malays (MY:M) in Malaysia. Differences between Singapore and Malaysian groups were primarily observed in stimuli related to water features, reflecting cultural and geographical variations. Besides variations in water source-dominant stimuli perception, disparities between MY:M and SG could be mainly attributed to vibrant scores. The findings also suggest that the adoption of region-specific translations, such as membingitkan in Singapore and menjengkelkan in Malaysia, adequately addressed differences in the annoying attribute, as significant differences were observed in one or fewer stimuli across ethnonational groups The circumplexity analysis indicated that the quasi-circumplex model better fit the data compared to the assumed equal angle quasi-circumplex model in ISO/TS 12913-3, although deviations were observed possibly due to respondents' unfamiliarity with the United Kingdom-centric context of the stimulus dataset...

  • 7 authors
·
Jul 7, 2023